NC State at Virginia Tech Week 12 College Football Matchup NC State at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 18 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
NC State✈ 136 miSame TZ
Away
35 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
NC State
23
NCST +2.5
Virginia Tech
21
P&R Line NC State -2
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -2.5 · O/U 40.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia Tech, while Game Control favors NC State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Virginia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
NC State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -2.5
O/U 40.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → NC State · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 NC State 2nd straight Road Game
NC State 2023 Schedule
NC State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31NC State at UConn-14.5W24–1447.5W24–14UN
Sat 9/9NC State vs Notre Dame+7.0L24–4549.5L24–45ON
Sat 9/16NC State vs VMI-42.5W45–751.0W45–7ON
Fri 9/22NC State at Virginia-8.5W24–2147.5W24–21UN
Fri 9/29NC State vs Louisville+3.5L10–1356.5L10–13UY
Sat 10/7NC State vs Marshall-6.5W48–4144.0W48–41OY
Sat 10/14NC State at Duke+3.5L3–2444.0L3–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28NC State vs Clemson+9.5W24–1744.5W24–17UY
Sat 11/4NC State vs Miami+6.5W20–644.0W20–6UY
Sat 11/11NC State at Wake Forest+0.5W26–642.5W26–6UY
Sat 11/18NC State at Virginia Tech+2.5W35–2840.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/25NC State vs North Carolina+2.0W39–2055.0W39–20OY
Thu 12/28NC State vs Kansas State+3.0L19–2848.5L19–28UN
Virginia Tech 2023 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-16.0W36–1748.0W36–17OY
Sat 9/9Virginia Tech vs Purdue-1.5L17–2449.0L17–24UN
Sat 9/16Virginia Tech at Rutgers+6.5L16–3537.5L16–35ON
Sat 9/23Virginia Tech at Marshall+5.5L17–2441.5L17–24UN
Sat 9/30Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+3.0W38–2140.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/7Virginia Tech at Florida State+23.5L17–3952.5L17–39OY
Sat 10/14Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-1.5W30–1348.5W30–13UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/26Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-2.5W38–1047.5W38–10OY
Sat 11/4Virginia Tech at Louisville+9.5L3–3448.5L3–34UN
Sat 11/11Virginia Tech at Boston College-2.5W48–2248.5W48–22OY
Sat 11/18Virginia Tech vs NC State-2.5L28–3540.5L28–35ON
Sat 11/25Virginia Tech at Virginia-2.5W55–1752.5W55–17OY
Wed 12/27Virginia Tech vs Tulane-13.5W41–2043.5W41–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
NC State #89
+0.307
Virginia Tech #59
+0.307
Even
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
NC State #95
+0.394
Virginia Tech #70
+0.429
Virginia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
NC State #22
0.186
Virginia Tech #47
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
NC State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
NC State #47
+8.604
Virginia Tech #30
+8.091
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
NC State #100
+0.771
Virginia Tech #55
+0.819
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
NC State #49
69.9
Virginia Tech #33
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
NC State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
NC State
6.6
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
NC State
18.2
Virginia Tech
18.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
NC State
11.7
Virginia Tech
12.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
NC State #56
0.33
Virginia Tech #13
1.70
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
NC State #30
0.89
Virginia Tech #68
0.80
Virginia Tech +1.37
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? NC State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
NC State #1
54.6
Virginia Tech #1
43.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
NC State #26
26.6
Virginia Tech #77
43.1
NC State +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
74–55 (58%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Robert Anae Yr 1 #1
DC Tony Gibson Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
4–10 (29%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself