NC State at Boston College Week 7 College Football Matchup NC State at Boston College Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
NC State✈ 606 miSame TZ
Away
33 7
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
NC State
32
Boston College
19
P&R Line NC State -12.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas NC State -3 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Boston College has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Boston College entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Boston College wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Boston College wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
NC State -3
O/U 51.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → NC State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Boston College Coming off BYE 🛋 NC State Coming off BYE
NC State 2021 Schedule
NC State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2NC State vs South Florida-20.0W45–058.0W45–0UY
Sat 9/11NC State at Mississippi State-1.5L10–2455.0L10–24UN
Sat 9/18NC State vs Furman-27.5W45–745.0W45–7OY
Sat 9/25NC State vs Clemson+10.5W27–2146.5W27–21OY
Sat 10/2NC State vs Louisiana Tech-18.5W34–2756.0W34–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16NC State at Boston College-3.0W33–751.0W33–7UY
Sat 10/23NC State at Miami-3.5L30–3154.5L30–31ON
Sat 10/30NC State vs Louisville-6.0W28–1357.0W28–13UY
Sat 11/6NC State at Florida State-3.0W28–1455.0W28–14UY
Sat 11/13NC State at Wake Forest+1.0L42–4565.0L42–45ON
Sat 11/20NC State vs Syracuse-11.0W41–1749.5W41–17OY
Fri 11/26NC State vs North Carolina-6.5W34–3062.0W34–30ON
Tue 12/28NC State vs UCLA-2.060.0
Boston College 2021 Schedule
Boston College's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Boston College vs Colgate-42.5W51–056.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/11Boston College at Massachusetts-39.0W45–2857.0W45–28ON
Sat 9/18Boston College at Temple-15.0W28–355.5W28–3UY
Sat 9/25Boston College vs Missouri-1.0W41–3458.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/2Boston College at Clemson+14.5L13–1946.5L13–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Boston College vs NC State+3.0L7–3351.0L7–33UN
Sat 10/23Boston College at Louisville+4.0L14–2857.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/30Boston College at Syracuse+6.5L6–2151.5L6–21UN
Fri 11/5Boston College vs Virginia Tech+1.0W17–351.0W17–3UY
Sat 11/13Boston College at Georgia Tech-2.0W41–3055.0W41–30OY
Sat 11/20Boston College vs Florida State-3.0L23–2655.5L23–26UN
Sat 11/27Boston College vs Wake Forest+5.5L10–4164.0L10–41UN
Mon 12/27Boston College vs East Carolina-3.052.5
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
NC State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
NC State
+0.407
Boston College
+0.247
NC State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
NC State
+0.585
Boston College
+0.430
NC State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
NC State
0.190
Boston College
0.148
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
NC State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
NC State
+7.385
Boston College
+7.194
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
NC State
+0.836
Boston College
+0.749
NC State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
NC State
69.8
Boston College
72.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
NC State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
NC State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
NC State
6.6
Boston College
-6.0
Offense Rating
NC State
18.2
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
NC State
11.6
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Boston College Edge
Avg sequences created per game
NC State #115
0.75
Boston College #62
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
NC State #5
0.00
Boston College #29
0.50
Boston College +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boston College Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
NC State #1
62.0
Boston College #1
67.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
NC State #30
27.6
Boston College #69
23.3
Boston College +5.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Boston College. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
57–47 (55%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Tim Beck* Yr 1 #1
DC Tony Gibson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
9–5 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Frank Cignetti Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Tem Lukabu Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself