Matchup Prediction
NC State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
NC State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
NC State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
NC State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Duke -3
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → NC State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
NC State 2025 Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -12.5W24–17 | 58.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | NC State vs Virginia | -3.0W35–31 | 53.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | -7.5W34–24 | 52.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | NC State at Duke | +3.0L33–45 | 57.5 | L33–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | NC State vs Virginia Tech | -10.0L21–23 | 57.5 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | NC State vs Campbell | -42.5W56–10 | 61.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | NC State at Notre Dame | +23.5L7–36 | 59.5 | L7–36 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | NC State at Pittsburgh | +5.5L34–53 | 52.5 | L34–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | NC State vs Georgia Tech | +4.5W48–36 | 58.5 | W48–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | NC State at Miami | +16.5L7–41 | 54.5 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Fri 11/21 | NC State vs Florida State | +7.0W21–11 | 58.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | NC State vs North Carolina | -7.0W42–19 | 48.5 | W42–19 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/19 | NC State vs Memphis | -6.0W31–7 | 56.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
Duke 2025 Schedule
Duke's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Duke vs Elon | -36.5W45–17 | 51.5 | W45–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Duke vs Illinois | +2.5L19–45 | 49.0 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Duke at Tulane | +1.5L27–34 | 52.5 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Duke vs NC State | -3.0W45–33 | 57.5 | W45–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Duke at Syracuse | -4.0W38–3 | 59.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Duke at California | -3.5W45–21 | 54.5 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Duke vs Georgia Tech | -3.5L18–27 | 60.5 | L18–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Duke at Clemson | +4.5W46–45 | 55.5 | W46–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Duke at UConn | -7.5L34–37 | 63.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Duke vs Virginia | -5.5L17–34 | 59.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Duke at North Carolina | -6.5W32–25 | 50.5 | W32–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Duke vs Wake Forest | -2.5W49–32 | 54.0 | W49–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Duke vs Virginia | +3.5W27–20 | 58.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/31 | Duke vs Arizona State | -4.0W42–39 | 49.5 | W42–39 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
NC State Edge
NC State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
NC State Edge
NC State +14.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Duke
52.5 — 27.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 12
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on NC State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
87–64 (58%)
· Yr 13 at school
OC
Kurt Roper
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Eliot
Yr 1
#1
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
9–3 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jonathan Brewer
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jonathan Patke
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓