Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
NC State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
NC State -42.5
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
VMI 2023 Schedule
VMI's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/16 | VMI at NC State | +42.5L7–45 | 51.0 | L7–45 | O | Y |
NC State 2023 Schedule
NC State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | NC State at UConn | -14.5W24–14 | 47.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | NC State vs Notre Dame | +7.0L24–45 | 49.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | NC State vs VMI | -42.5W45–7 | 51.0 | W45–7 | O | N |
| Fri 9/22 | NC State at Virginia | -8.5W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Fri 9/29 | NC State vs Louisville | +3.5L10–13 | 56.5 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | NC State vs Marshall | -6.5W48–41 | 44.0 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | NC State at Duke | +3.5L3–24 | 44.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | NC State vs Clemson | +9.5W24–17 | 44.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | NC State vs Miami | +6.5W20–6 | 44.0 | W20–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | +0.5W26–6 | 42.5 | W26–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | NC State at Virginia Tech | +2.5W35–28 | 40.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | NC State vs North Carolina | +2.0W39–20 | 55.0 | W39–20 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | NC State vs Kansas State | +3.0L19–28 | 48.5 | L19–28 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
VMI Edge
VMI +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
NC State Edge
NC State +52.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓