Georgia Tech at NC State Week 10 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at NC State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Carter-Finley Stadium Raleigh, NC · Turf · 57,583 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 351 miSame TZ
36 48
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
31
NC State
27
P&R Line Georgia Tech -4.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -4.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Georgia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Georgia Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -4.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2025 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Georgia Tech at Colorado-4.0W27–2055.5W27–20UY
Sat 9/6Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb-37.5W59–1260.5W59–12OY
Sat 9/13Georgia Tech vs Clemson+2.5W24–2149.5W24–21UY
Sat 9/20Georgia Tech vs Temple-24.5W45–2452.5W45–24ON
Sat 9/27Georgia Tech at Wake Forest-13.5W30–2953.5W30–29ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech-14.0W35–2055.5W35–20UY
Sat 10/18Georgia Tech at Duke+3.5W27–1860.5W27–18UY
Sat 10/25Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-17.5W41–1652.5W41–16OY
Sat 11/1Georgia Tech at NC State-4.5L36–4858.5L36–48ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Georgia Tech at Boston College-16.5W36–3461.5W36–34ON
Sat 11/22Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh-2.5L28–4261.5L28–42ON
Fri 11/28Georgia Tech vs Georgia+15.5L9–1659.5L9–16UY
Sat 12/27Georgia Tech vs BYU+3.5L21–2555.0L21–25UN
NC State 2025 Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28NC State vs East Carolina-12.5W24–1758.5W24–17UN
Sat 9/6NC State vs Virginia-3.0W35–3153.0W35–31OY
Thu 9/11NC State at Wake Forest-7.5W34–2452.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/20NC State at Duke+3.0L33–4557.5L33–45ON
Sat 9/27NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.0L21–2357.5L21–23UN
Sat 10/4NC State vs Campbell-42.5W56–1061.5W56–10OY
Sat 10/11NC State at Notre Dame+23.5L7–3659.5L7–36UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25NC State at Pittsburgh+5.5L34–5352.5L34–53ON
Sat 11/1NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.5W48–3658.5W48–36OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15NC State at Miami+16.5L7–4154.5L7–41UN
Fri 11/21NC State vs Florida State+7.0W21–1158.5W21–11UY
Sat 11/29NC State vs North Carolina-7.0W42–1948.5W42–19OY
Fri 12/19NC State vs Memphis-6.0W31–756.5W31–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #21
+0.480
NC State #20
+0.474
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #15
+0.715
NC State #25
+0.681
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #108
0.137
NC State #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
NC State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #78
+7.314
NC State #8
+8.247
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #7
+0.885
NC State #50
+0.877
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #99
71.9
NC State #105
72.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
NC State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
NC State
6.6
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
NC State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
NC State
11.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #14
2.29
NC State #70
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #71
0.57
NC State #99
2.00
Georgia Tech +1.72
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
61.5
NC State #1
40.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #59
20.1
NC State #58
43.1
Georgia Tech +21.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
NC State
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
NC State
75.1 — 10.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
NC State won by 12
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
18–15 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Gideon Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
87–64 (58%) · Yr 13 at school
OC Kurt Roper Yr 1 #1
DC D. J. Eliot Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself