Sat, Nov 27 2021
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Week 13
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🏟 Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, NC
·
Turf
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57,583 cap
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors North Carolina,
while Game Control favors NC State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
NC State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
NC State -6.5
O/U 62.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → NC State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | North Carolina at Virginia Tech | -5.5L10–17 | 63.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | North Carolina vs Georgia State | -26.0W59–17 | 65.0 | W59–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | North Carolina vs Virginia | -7.5W59–39 | 67.0 | W59–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -14.5L22–45 | 66.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | North Carolina vs Duke | -19.5W38–7 | 74.0 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | North Carolina vs Florida State | -17.5L25–35 | 64.5 | L25–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | North Carolina vs Miami | -7.5W45–42 | 63.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | North Carolina at Notre Dame | +3.5L34–44 | 63.0 | L34–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -2.5W58–55 | 78.0 | W58–55 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/11 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | +6.5L23–30 | 72.0 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | North Carolina vs Wofford | -37.0W34–14 | 62.0 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | North Carolina at NC State | +6.5L30–34 | 62.0 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | North Carolina vs South Carolina | -12.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
NC State 2021 Schedule
NC State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | NC State vs South Florida | -20.0W45–0 | 58.0 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | NC State at Mississippi State | -1.5L10–24 | 55.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | NC State vs Furman | -27.5W45–7 | 45.0 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | NC State vs Clemson | +10.5W27–21 | 46.5 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | NC State vs Louisiana Tech | -18.5W34–27 | 56.0 | W34–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | NC State at Boston College | -3.0W33–7 | 51.0 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | NC State at Miami | -3.5L30–31 | 54.5 | L30–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | NC State vs Louisville | -6.0W28–13 | 57.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | NC State at Florida State | -3.0W28–14 | 55.0 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | NC State at Wake Forest | +1.0L42–45 | 65.0 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | NC State vs Syracuse | -11.0W41–17 | 49.5 | W41–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | NC State vs North Carolina | -6.5W34–30 | 62.0 | W34–30 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | NC State vs UCLA | -2.0 | 60.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +1.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
NC State Edge
NC State +3.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
57–47 (55%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Tim Beck*
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony Gibson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓