NC State at Vanderbilt - 2016 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores(#14)

Monday, December 26th 2016 (5:00 PM EST)
NC State -4 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
NC State 41 - Vanderbilt: 17 (CAMPING WORLD INDEPENDENCE BOWL)

Wolfpack (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 23 (25 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -5.5 (SP+ NCST -10.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 24 - VAN: 23 (47)
NCST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 891 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Commodores (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
NCST Players
VAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	NC State vs William & Mary	-30.5
Sat 9/10	NC State at East Carolina	-3.5	59.0	L 30 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/17	NC State vs Old Dominion	-20.5	58.0	W 49 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	NC State vs Wake Forest	-9.0	48.0	W 33 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/8	NC State vs Notre Dame	+2.5	56.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/15	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	60.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/22	NC State at Louisville	+20.0	65.0	L 13 - 54	O	N
Sat 10/29	NC State vs Boston College	-15.5	42.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/5	NC State vs Florida State	+6.5	58.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/12	NC State at Syracuse	-7.0	62.0	W 35 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/19	NC State vs Miami	+2.5	52.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Fri 11/25	NC State at North Carolina	+10.0	63.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/26	NC State vs Vanderbilt	-4.0	47.0	W 41 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Vanderbilt's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Vanderbilt vs South Carolina	+4.0	40.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Vanderbilt vs Middle Tennessee	-5.0	51.0	W 47 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech	+7.5	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/24	Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky	+7.5	49.0	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Vanderbilt vs Florida	+8.5	40.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Vanderbilt at Kentucky	+2.0	48.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/15	Vanderbilt at Georgia	+14.5	42.5	W 17 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Vanderbilt vs Tennessee State	-27.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Vanderbilt at Auburn	+26.0	47.0	L 16 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Vanderbilt at Missouri	+1.0	53.0	L 17 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/19	Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss	+9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Vanderbilt vs Tennessee	+10.0	50.0	W 45 - 34	O	Y
Mon 12/26	Vanderbilt vs NC State	+4.0	47.0	L 17 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.17	43%	27	42%	2.78	156	43%	260	2.9	.08	38%	22.8	36%	38%	2.86	62.3	1.5	1.7
VAN	.11	42%	23	44%	3.03	164	37%	191	3.59	.13	44%	24	43%	42%	2.59	44.2	1.2	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)		42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)		46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	27	24.6	43.3%	2.9	1.5	22	416	156	260	4	51%	48%	42%	43%	15%	.17
VAN Defense	13	24	19.7	43.5%	2.59	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	42%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	22.8	30.4	38.3%	2.86	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	36%	38%	19%	.08
VAN Offense	13	23	30.2	41.6%	3.59	1.2	19	356	164	191	4.3	52%	46%	44%	37%	18%	.11

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	31:50	21.8	44%	44%	6	62.3	1.5	1.7	6.8	2.8	4	31.3
Vanderbilt	13	31:48	19.5	36%	33%	5.2	44.2	1.2	1.5	5.3	1.2	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	51%	42%	38.8	156.2	4	23	.04	2.78	61%	8%	0.88
VAN Defense	13	48%	43%	-	-	-	-		2.99	63%	10%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	36%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.38	67%	12%	1.04
VAN Offense	13	52%	44%	38.2	164.5	4.3	26	.13	3.03	65%	10%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	48%	43%	20.2	33.7	260.2	7.7	12.9	20	12	.32	1.7	33%	38%	.37	6%	1.8
VAN Defense	13	50%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.26	1.5	33%	34%	.35	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	56%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.15	1.5	38%	33%	.3	7%	1.7
VAN Offense	13	46%	37%	16.2	30.3	191.2	6.3	11.8	9	11	.12	1.5	34%	30%	.16	7%	1.7

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2016 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #41
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #58
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: Vanderbilt: -0.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Vanderbilt: -1.2

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -0.6 NR
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: NR
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Vanderbilt's 2016 Expected Record: -
Vanderbilt's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #71
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #89
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

NC State's 2016 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 24
Vanderbilt 23

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 24
Vanderbilt 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Vanderbilt 27
NC State 24

Total Points: 51

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.2
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Vanderbilt's 2016 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2016	12/26	Vanderbilt	17	NC State	41	NC State -4	NC State	47.0	Over
2012	12/31	Vanderbilt	38	NC State	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Vanderbilt	1	0	1 Overs
NC State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

NC State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2016	Independence Bowl	NC State vs Vanderbilt	-4.0	47.0	W 41 - 17
2015	N/A	NC State vs Mississippi State	+7.0		L 28 - 51
2014	Petersburg Bowl	NC State vs UCF	+2.0	47.5	W 34 - 27
2012	City Bowl	NC State vs Vanderbilt			L 24 - 38
2011	Belk Bowl	NC State vs Louisville			W 31 - 24
2010	Sports Bowl	NC State vs West Virginia			W 23 - 7

Vanderbilt Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2016	Independence Bowl	Vanderbilt vs NC State	+4.0	47.0	L 17 - 41
2013	Compass Bowl	Vanderbilt vs Houston	-1.5	53.0	W 41 - 24
2012	City Bowl	Vanderbilt vs NC State			W 38 - 24
2011	Liberty Bowl	Vanderbilt vs Cincinnati			L 24 - 31

(#) NCST at (#) VAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	VAN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#41	#71
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#44	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

Vanderbilt Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VAN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#48
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Vanderbilt on Offense


CategoryCat	VAN Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#19
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Vanderbilt Run Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Vanderbilt Pass Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Independence Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 79° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 1
NC State 4.0 (47.0)
NC State won at Vanderbilt this year (41-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NCST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

VAN's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD