Virginia Tech at NC State Week 5 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at NC State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Carter-Finley Stadium Raleigh, NC · Turf · 57,583 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 136 miSame TZ
23 21
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
22
NCST -10
NC State
34
P&R Line NC State -11.5
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas NC State -10 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
NC State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor NC State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
NC State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
NC State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
NC State -10
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → NC State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia Tech 2025 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31Virginia Tech vs South Carolina+8.5L11–2448.5L11–24UN
Sat 9/6Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt-2.5L20–4446.5L20–44ON
Sat 9/13Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-5.5L26–4550.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/20Virginia Tech vs Wofford-35.5W38–651.5W38–6UN
Sat 9/27Virginia Tech at NC State+10.0W23–2157.5W23–21UY
Sat 10/4Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-4.5L23–3051.5L23–30ON
Sat 10/11Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+14.0L20–3555.5L20–35UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/24Virginia Tech vs California-6.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 11/1Virginia Tech vs Louisville+10.5L16–2852.5L16–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Virginia Tech at Florida State+13.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/22Virginia Tech vs Miami+18.5L17–3449.0L17–34OY
Sat 11/29Virginia Tech at Virginia+9.5L7–2753.5L7–27UN
NC State 2025 Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28NC State vs East Carolina-12.5W24–1758.5W24–17UN
Sat 9/6NC State vs Virginia-3.0W35–3153.0W35–31OY
Thu 9/11NC State at Wake Forest-7.5W34–2452.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/20NC State at Duke+3.0L33–4557.5L33–45ON
Sat 9/27NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.0L21–2357.5L21–23UN
Sat 10/4NC State vs Campbell-42.5W56–1061.5W56–10OY
Sat 10/11NC State at Notre Dame+23.5L7–3659.5L7–36UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25NC State at Pittsburgh+5.5L34–5352.5L34–53ON
Sat 11/1NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.5W48–3658.5W48–36OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15NC State at Miami+16.5L7–4154.5L7–41UN
Fri 11/21NC State vs Florida State+7.0W21–1158.5W21–11UY
Sat 11/29NC State vs North Carolina-7.0W42–1948.5W42–19OY
Fri 12/19NC State vs Memphis-6.0W31–756.5W31–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
NC State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #70
+0.380
NC State #20
+0.558
NC State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #113
+0.451
NC State #25
+0.810
NC State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #116
0.132
NC State #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
NC State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #70
+7.380
NC State #8
+9.033
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #84
+0.808
NC State #50
+0.894
NC State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #124
73.2
NC State #105
72.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
NC State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
NC State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
NC State
6.6
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.4
NC State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.5
NC State
11.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? NC State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #106
0.33
NC State #70
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #98
2.33
NC State #99
1.50
NC State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? NC State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
41.5
NC State #1
45.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #116
48.9
NC State #58
35.9
NC State +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on NC State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
16–20 (44%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Sam Siefkes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
87–64 (58%) · Yr 13 at school
OC Kurt Roper Yr 1 #1
DC D. J. Eliot Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself