Thu, Oct 27 2022
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, NC
·
Turf
·
57,583 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 136 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
NC State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
NC State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
NC State wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
NC State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
NC State -13
O/U 39.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → NC State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia Tech 2022 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Virginia Tech at Old Dominion | -6.0L17–20 | 48.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Virginia Tech vs Boston College | -2.5W27–10 | 45.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Virginia Tech vs Wofford | -39.0W27–7 | 45.0 | W27–7 | U | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Virginia Tech vs West Virginia | +2.0L10–33 | 49.5 | L10–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Virginia Tech at North Carolina | +9.5L10–41 | 57.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh | +14.5L29–45 | 42.0 | L29–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Virginia Tech vs Miami | +9.0L14–20 | 48.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/27 | Virginia Tech at NC State | +13.0L21–22 | 39.0 | L21–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech | -4.0L27–28 | 40.5 | L27–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Virginia Tech at Duke | +10.0L7–24 | 50.0 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Virginia Tech at Liberty | +10.5W23–22 | 46.0 | W23–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Virginia Tech vs Virginia | -1.5 | 40.0 | — | — | — |
NC State 2022 Schedule
NC State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | NC State at East Carolina | -12.5W21–20 | 52.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | NC State vs Charleston Southern | -45.5W55–3 | 55.0 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | NC State vs Texas Tech | -10.5W27–14 | 55.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | NC State vs UConn | -38.5W41–10 | 48.0 | W41–10 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | NC State at Clemson | +6.5L20–30 | 46.0 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | NC State vs Florida State | -3.5W19–17 | 50.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | NC State at Syracuse | +3.0L9–24 | 42.5 | L9–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/27 | NC State vs Virginia Tech | -13.0W22–21 | 39.0 | W22–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | NC State vs Wake Forest | +3.0W30–21 | 54.0 | W30–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | NC State vs Boston College | -18.0L20–21 | 41.0 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | NC State at Louisville | +4.0L10–25 | 43.0 | L10–25 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | NC State at North Carolina | +6.5W30–27 | 56.0 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | NC State vs Maryland | -2.5L12–16 | 45.0 | L12–16 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ NC State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
NC State Edge
NC State +1.52
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
NC State Edge
NC State +16.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
NC State
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
NC State
49.2 — 31.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
NC State won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on NC State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tyler Bowen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chris Marve
Yr 1
#1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
64–49 (57%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Tim Beck*
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tony Gibson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓