Matchup Prediction
Syracuse
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Syracuse entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Syracuse wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Syracuse wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -1
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → NC State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Syracuse 2024 Schedule
Syracuse's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Syracuse vs Ohio | -17.5W38–22 | 47.5 | W38–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Syracuse vs Georgia Tech | +2.5W31–28 | 60.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/20 | Syracuse vs Stanford | -9.5L24–26 | 56.5 | L24–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Syracuse vs Holy Cross | -31.5W42–14 | 59.5 | W42–14 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Syracuse at UNLV | +5.5W44–41 | 55.5 | W44–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Syracuse at NC State | -1.0W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/24 | Syracuse at Pittsburgh | +5.0L13–41 | 62.5 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Syracuse vs Virginia Tech | +3.5W38–31 | 54.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Syracuse at Boston College | +5.5L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Syracuse at California | +10.5W33–25 | 58.0 | W33–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Syracuse vs UConn | -10.0W31–24 | 53.0 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Syracuse vs Miami | +12.5W42–38 | 65.5 | W42–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Syracuse vs Washington State | -19.0W52–35 | 58.5 | W52–35 | O | N |
NC State 2024 Schedule
NC State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | NC State vs Western Carolina | -32.5W38–21 | 60.5 | W38–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | NC State vs Tennessee | +10.0L10–51 | 60.5 | L10–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | NC State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | NC State at Clemson | +17.0L35–59 | 44.0 | L35–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | NC State vs Northern Illinois | -7.0W24–17 | 46.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | NC State vs Wake Forest | -4.0L30–34 | 52.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | NC State vs Syracuse | +1.0L17–24 | 51.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | NC State at California | +9.5W24–23 | 46.0 | W24–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | NC State vs Stanford | -10.0W59–28 | 46.5 | W59–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | NC State vs Duke | -3.5L19–29 | 51.5 | L19–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | NC State at Georgia Tech | +7.5L29–30 | 51.5 | L29–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | NC State at North Carolina | +2.5W35–30 | 54.5 | W35–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -7.5L21–26 | 61.5 | L21–26 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ NC State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +23.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Syracuse
11.1 — 71.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Syracuse with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Elijah Robinson
Yr 1
#1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
81–58 (58%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tony Gibson
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓