East Carolina at NC State Week 1 College Football Matchup East Carolina at NC State Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Aug 28 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Carter-Finley Stadium Raleigh, NC · Turf · 57,583 cap
East Carolina✈ 77 miSame TZ
17 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
27
NC State
31
P&R Line NC State -4
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 86 High
Vegas NC State -12.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
NC State -12.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → East Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
NC State 2025 Schedule
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28NC State vs East Carolina-12.5W24–1758.5W24–17UN
Sat 9/6NC State vs Virginia-3.0W35–3153.0W35–31OY
Thu 9/11NC State at Wake Forest-7.5W34–2452.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/20NC State at Duke+3.0L33–4557.5L33–45ON
Sat 9/27NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.0L21–2357.5L21–23UN
Sat 10/4NC State vs Campbell-42.5W56–1061.5W56–10OY
Sat 10/11NC State at Notre Dame+23.5L7–3659.5L7–36UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25NC State at Pittsburgh+5.5L34–5352.5L34–53ON
Sat 11/1NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.5W48–3658.5W48–36OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15NC State at Miami+16.5L7–4154.5L7–41UN
Fri 11/21NC State vs Florida State+7.0W21–1158.5W21–11UY
Sat 11/29NC State vs North Carolina-7.0W42–1948.5W42–19OY
Fri 12/19NC State vs Memphis-6.0W31–756.5W31–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #40
+0.416
NC State #20
+0.372
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #32
+0.665
NC State #25
+0.565
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #11
0.191
NC State #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #63
+7.461
NC State #8
+7.736
NC State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #22
+0.856
NC State #50
+0.822
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #22
68.8
NC State #105
72.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
NC State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
NC State
6.6
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
NC State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.4
NC State
11.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #18
0.00
NC State #70
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #36
0.00
NC State #99
0.00
East Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
0.0
NC State #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #39
0.0
NC State #58
0.0
East Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
NC State
88.2 — 6.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
NC State won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on NC State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
NC State
Dave Doeren #1
87–64 (58%) · Yr 13 at school
OC Kurt Roper Yr 1 #1
DC D. J. Eliot Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself