Arizona at Iowa State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones(#14)Iowa State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -4 (48.5) (-180)  Open: -7.0
Iowa State 39 - Arizona: 14  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (9 - 3) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ARIZ coming off BYE
ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -4  (SP+ ARIZ -4.5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 21 - ISU: 25 (46)
ISU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARIZ Travel: 1166 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cyclones (8 - 4) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-5.556.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+6.556.5W 30 - 24UY
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-6.561.5W 41 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State-2.048.5W 23 - 7UY
Fri 1/2 Arizona vs SMU+1.052.0

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-4.048.5W 39 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.555.5L 30 - 38ON
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-3.052.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-2.548.5L 27 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.548.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+7.558.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-3.055.5W 38 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#49 (.2)43% (63)32.642% (92)3.05 (49)15143% (51)2543.57 (81)#34 (.09)38% (26)18.945% (96)33% (6)3.38 (46)51.612.3
ISU#61 (.19)45% (44)27.446% (47)3 (57)17444% (42)2213.54 (83)#36 (.09)39% (43)20.240% (40)40% (53)3.06 (23)401.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense1232.629.442.5%3.571224051512544.346%54%42%43%15%.2
ISU Defense1220.218.839.4%3.061.5 - - - - - 47%50%40%40%17%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense1218.923.638.2%3.382.3 - - - - - 52%46%45%33%21%.09
ISU Offense1227.432.344.7%3.541.2213961742214.454%45%46%44%15%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona1230:452240%67%5.651.612.36.51.8234.2
Iowa State1231:3421.140%68%4.6401.21.551.1129.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense1246% (100)42% (92)35.3150.84.320 (88).13 (61)3.05 (49)76% (46)9% (64)1.05 (34)
ISU Defense1247% (43)40% (40) - - - - .01 (20)2.79 (51)70% (55)10% (65)0.83 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense1252% (92)45% (96) - - - - .11 (73)2.85 (61)72% (75)11% (20)0.92 (45)
ISU Offense1254% (36)46% (47)39.8174.24.423 (30).15 (50)3 (57)69% (89)8% (38)0.93 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense1254% (29)43% (51)21.133.7254.47.612.126 (14)7 (88).26 (63)1.5 (90)31% (64)31% (67).41 (30)6% (59)2.1 (40)
ISU Defense1250% (91)40% (53) - - - - - - 11 (38).24 (67)1.6 (74)33% (44)29% (60).23 (48)7% (30)1.7 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense1246% (35)33% (6) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (27)1.6 (107)33% (42)24% (13).18 (25)9% (2)2.1 (89)
ISU Offense1245% (100)44% (42)17.528.8221.47.712.716 (86)9 (20).29 (51)1.6 (56)30% (48)31% (69).21 (100)6% (81)2.1 (42)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 4.09  #55
Arizona's Offense Rating: 10.86  #58
Arizona's Defense Rating: 6.77  #57
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9  #25
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 4.09   Iowa State: 13.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 13.9   Iowa State: 9.4




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.055  #36
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.61  #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 2.90  #35
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4  #35
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #62
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #27

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 32.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 25
Arizona 21


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa State 21
Arizona 13

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
Iowa State 26
Arizona 25

Total Points: 51
Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Iowa State39Arizona14Iowa State -4Iowa State48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State111 Overs
Arizona000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#55) ARIZ at (#36) ISU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARIZISU
Power RatePwr #55 #36
SP+SP+ #25 #35
Perf GradeGrade #37 #61
OffenseOff #59 #49
DefenseDef #18 #91
Spec TeamsST #95 #105
TalentTal #73 #66
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Arizona Notes
(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report
Iowa State Notes
(12/7) Declined bowl game. 2025 season is over.
(12/5) HC Matt Campbell going to Penn State
(12/5) Hired HC Jimmy Rogers, Wazzu HC (S Dak St too)
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
Iowa State Injury Report
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffISU Def
Perf GradePerf #59 #91
SuccessSuc #63 #43
ExplosiveExp #40 #51
PPAPPA #49 #36
PowerPwr #58 #35
SP+SP+ #26 #27
Pts POPPO #81 #23
HavocHav #59 #48
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffISU Def
Run GameRun #76 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #40
Run ExplRExp #34 #13
PPAExp #61 #20
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #51
Stuff RateStuff #70 #37
TackleTak -  #124
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #31 #53
Pass SuccessPSuc #51 #53
Pass ExplPExl #90 #74
PPAExp #63 #67
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #42 #114
F7 HavocF7 #64 #65
DB HavocDB #59 #30
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatISU OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #49 #18
SuccessSuc #44 #26
ExplosiveExp #91 #42
PPAPPA #61 #34
PowerPwr #42 #57
SP+SP+ #62 #24
Pts POPPO #83 #46
HavocHav #55 #5
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #59 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #96
Run ExplRExp #82 #45
PPAExp #50 #73
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #57 #61
Stuff RateStuff #58 #72
TackleTak -  #45
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatISU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #26 #3
Pass SuccessPSuc #42 #6
Pass ExplPExl #56 #107
PPAExp #51 #27
Pass Block/RushP Blk #94 #122
F7 HavocF7 #38 #20
DB HavocDB #81 #2
Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 75° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Iowa State -4.0 (48.5)
Iowa State won vs Arizona this year (39-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita24738664%29632657.7
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)12278546.468
Kedrick Reescano8339494.750
Quincy Craig (Tr)5533526.154
Noah Fifita10214931.519
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)57740413.040
Javin Whatley (Tr)38443411.785
Tre Spivey (Tr)21359617.170
Chris Hunter25351214.035

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson972107
Taye Brown849231
Genesis Smith773018
Max Harris (Tr)754051
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy398460
Riley Wilson (Tr)497344
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)2611220
Taye Brown849231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Genesis Smith773018
Ayden Garnes (Tr)341028
Michael Dansby (Tr)171008

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen18795065.165
Abu Sama III14173255.244
Dylan Lee2511714.728
Rocco Becht8711181.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer37446612.127
Gabe Burkle26302111.644

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel778153
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon6810343
Jamison Patton481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon6810343
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)264240
Will McLaughlin132201
Jace J. Gilbert183110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'Shawn James330005
Quentin Taylor Jr.272005
Kooper Ebel778153