Arizona at Iowa State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -4 (48.5) (-180) Open: -7.0
Iowa State 39 - Arizona: 14 (Big 12)

Wildcats (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

ARIZ coming off BYE
ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -3.5 (SP+ ARIZ -2)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 23 - ISU: 27 (50)
ISU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARIZ Travel: 1166 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cyclones (8 - 4) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
ARIZ Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arizona vs Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Arizona vs Weber State	-31.5	56.5	W 48 - 3	U	Y
Fri 9/12	Arizona vs Kansas State	+1.5	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Arizona at Iowa State	+4.0	48.5	L 14 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/4	Arizona vs Oklahoma State	-21.5	56.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Arizona vs BYU	+2.5	46.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/18	Arizona at Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Arizona at Colorado	-4.0	52.5	W 52 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Arizona vs Kansas	-5.5	56.5	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	Arizona at Cincinnati	+6.5	56.5	W 30 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Arizona vs Baylor	-6.5	61.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Arizona at Arizona State	-2.0	48.5	W 23 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/2	Arizona vs SMU	+2.5	55.5	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Iowa State vs Kansas State	+2.5	51.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Sat 8/30	Iowa State vs South Dakota	-16.5	47.5	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Iowa State vs Iowa	-3.0	43.0	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/13	Iowa State at Arkansas State	-21.0	55.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Iowa State vs Arizona	-4.0	48.5	W 39 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+1.5	55.5	L 30 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/11	Iowa State at Colorado	-3.0	52.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Iowa State vs BYU	-2.5	48.5	L 27 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/1	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-7.5	48.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/8	Iowa State at TCU	+7.5	58.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Iowa State vs Kansas	-3.0	55.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Iowa State at Oklahoma State	-13.5	47.5	W 20 - 13	U	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)	31.5	37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)	19.3	45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2
ISU	#62 (.2)	40% (99)	27.4	40% (106)	2.83 (102)	150	41% (77)	236	4.23 (37)	#79 (.18)	43% (81)	20.2	46% (101)	38% (41)	3.44 (29)	25.9	1.1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	12	31.5	29.4	38.5%	3.53	1.7	19	355	107	248	3.9	39%	61%	37%	40%	16%	.15
ISU Defense	14	20.2	18.8	42.6%	3.44	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	46%	38%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	12	19.3	23.6	44.6%	4.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	44%	14%	.24
ISU Offense	14	27.4	32.3	40.4%	4.23	1.1	21	387	150	236	4.4	51%	49%	40%	41%	14%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	12	29:45	18.5	43%	42%	6.5	57.6	1.7	1.2	4.8	1.7	0	27.6
Iowa State	14	30:00	20.9	42%	81%	3.6	25.9	1.1	1.5	4.7	1.1	1	30

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	12	39% (127)	37% (126)	27.4	106.7	3.9	11 (116)	.03 (112)	2.64 (123)	55% (134)	9% (59)	1.21 (6)
ISU Defense	14	55% (114)	46% (101)	-	-	-	-	.22 (114)	3.05 (76)	76% (81)	9% (85)	1.08 (112)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	12	51% (73)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.18 (100)	3.32 (115)	78% (99)	9% (94)	1.08 (109)
ISU Offense	14	51% (68)	40% (106)	34.4	150.2	4.4	24 (45)	.12 (74)	2.83 (102)	70% (88)	8% (22)	1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	12	61% (8)	40% (91)	21.8	36.4	247.9	6.8	11.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.22 (88)	1.6 (44)	36% (124)	31% (70)	.33 (71)	6% (88)	2.1 (35)
ISU Defense	14	45% (21)	38% (41)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.17 (36)	1.6 (73)	32% (63)	32% (86)	.32 (78)	5% (86)	2 (48)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	12	48% (61)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.31 (103)	1.6 (66)	31% (88)	32% (95)	.39 (101)	5% (93)	2.2 (105)
ISU Offense	14	49% (67)	41% (77)	18.3	31.1	236.4	7.6	12.9	22 (46)	10 (63)	.29 (49)	1.7 (27)	30% (52)	35% (29)	.39 (41)	7% (94)	2 (70)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 4.99 #50
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.18 #45
Arizona's Defense Rating: 12.19 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.0 #28
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #29
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 4.99 Iowa State: 12.11

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 12.0 Iowa State: 9.9

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 12.11 #41
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 19.26 #32
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 9.94 #46
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9 #33
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1 #63
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 27
Arizona 23

Projected Total Points: 50

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Iowa State	39	Arizona	14	Iowa State -4	Iowa State	48.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	1	1	1 Overs
Arizona	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#50) ARIZ at (#41) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#41
SP+SP+	#28	#33
Perf GradeGrade	#31	#56
OffenseOff	#55	#45
DefenseDef	#13	#83
Spec TeamsST	#88	#107
TalentTal	#73	#66
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#65

Arizona Notes(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report

Iowa State Notes(12/7) Declined bowl game. 2025 season is over.
(12/5) HC Matt Campbell going to Penn State
(12/5) Hired HC Jimmy Rogers, Wazzu HC (S Dak St too)
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
Iowa State Injury Report

Arizona on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#55	#83
SuccessSuc	#117	#81
ExplosiveExp	#3	#83
PPAPPA	#93	#79
PowerPwr	#45	#46
SP+SP+	#29	#25
Pts POPPO	#101	#29
HavocHav	#65	#84

Arizona Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#73	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#126	#101
Run ExplRExp	#6	#112
PPAExp	#112	#114
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#76
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#43
TackleTak	-	#126

Arizona Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#41
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#73
PPAExp	#88	#36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#54	#128
F7 HavocF7	#59	#85
DB HavocDB	#88	#86

Iowa State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	ARIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#45	#13
SuccessSuc	#99	#100
ExplosiveExp	#7	#96
PPAPPA	#62	#109
PowerPwr	#32	#57
SP+SP+	#63	#25
Pts POPPO	#37	#125
HavocHav	#40	#99

Iowa State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#39	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	#90
Run ExplRExp	#19	#109
PPAExp	#74	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#102
TackleTak	-	#47

Iowa State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#27	#66
PPAExp	#49	#103
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#111
F7 HavocF7	#22	#94
DB HavocDB	#94	#93

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Iowa State -4.0 (48.5)
Iowa State won vs Arizona this year (39-14)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Arizona last year (39-14)

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	275	429	64%	3228	29	6	7.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)	5	15	33%	68	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	133	853	4	6.4	68
Kedrick Reescano	84	396	9	4.7	50
Quincy Craig (Tr)	65	364	2	5.6	54
Noah Fifita	115	222	3	1.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)	60	764	4	12.7	40
Javin Whatley (Tr)	41	490	5	12.0	85
Tre Spivey (Tr)	23	381	7	16.6	70
Chris Hunter	27	372	2	13.8	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	97	2	1	0	7
Taye Brown	93	9	2	3	1
Max Harris (Tr)	78	4	0	7	1
Genesis Smith	77	3	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chase Kennedy	42	8	4	7	0
Riley Wilson (Tr)	51	8	3	5	4
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)	26	11	2	2	0
Taye Brown	93	9	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Dansby (Tr)	19	1	0	10
Ayden Garnes (Tr)	43	2	2	8
Genesis Smith	77	3	1	8

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	204	337	61%	2565	16	9	7.6
Alex Manske	4	5	80%	28	0	0	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	187	950	6	5.1	65
Abu Sama III	141	732	5	5.2	44
Dylan Lee	25	117	1	4.7	28
Rocco Becht	87	111	8	1.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brett Eskildsen	30	526	5	17.5	75
Chase Sowell (Tr)	32	500	2	15.6	52
Benjamin Brahmer	37	446	6	12.1	27
Gabe Burkle	26	302	1	11.6	44

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kooper Ebel	77	8	1	5	3
Marcus Neal	77	11	1	3	3
Caleb Bacon	68	10	3	4	3
Jamison Patton	48	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Bacon	68	10	3	4	3
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)	26	4	2	4	0
Will McLaughlin	13	2	2	0	1
Kooper Ebel	77	8	1	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ta'Shawn James	33	0	0	0	5
Quentin Taylor Jr.	27	2	0	0	5
Kooper Ebel	77	8	1	5	3