Arizona at Iowa State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones(#14)Iowa State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -4 (48.5) (-180)  Open: -7.0
Iowa State 39 - Arizona: 14  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (5 - 3) (5 - 3 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 34 - 20 (31 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
ARIZ coming off BYE
ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -5  (SP+ ARIZ -2.5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 21 - ISU: 26 (46)
ISU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARIZ Travel: 1166 miles, 1 hrs behind
Cyclones (5 - 4) (3 - 5 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (31 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-4.556.5
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+10
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor+0.5
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State+2.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-4.048.5W 39 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.555.5L 30 - 38ON
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-3.052.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-2.548.5L 27 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.548.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+6.557.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-4
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-22.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#48 (.21)43% (70)34.143% (79)3.15 (26)15043% (63)2673.55 (94)#42 (.11)38% (26)19.944% (93)31% (6)3.47 (49)53.51.32.3
ISU#61 (.19)45% (46)27.945% (55)3 (45)16445% (43)2443.63 (93)#43 (.11)39% (31)2241% (59)37% (25)3.09 (20)36.31.21.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense834.131.342.6%3.551.3224171502674.444%56%43%43%15%.21
ISU Defense92219.838.7%3.091.3 - - - - - 50%49%41%37%15%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense819.92938%3.472.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%31%21%.11
ISU Offense927.931.244.6%3.631.2224081642444.450%49%45%45%14%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona830:052237%59%6.153.51.32.37.12.1134.9
Iowa State931:0221.838%61%4.436.31.21.34.91.1030.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense844% (111)43% (79)34.3150.44.412 (88).16 (46)3.15 (26)69% (82)9% (64)1.06 (30)
ISU Defense950% (73)41% (59) - - - - .09 (72)2.94 (94)67% (41)9% (90)0.95 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense852% (94)44% (93) - - - - .11 (86)2.84 (85)67% (41)12% (17)0.91 (50)
ISU Offense950% (67)45% (55)37.7164.14.419 (30).14 (54)3 (45)67% (96)8% (26)0.92 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense856% (22)43% (63)21.534266.57.812.421 (14)6 (88).25 (72)1.6 (46)30% (54)28% (96).44 (28)6% (75)2.3 (11)
ISU Defense949% (62)37% (25) - - - - - - 7 (38).2 (58)1.7 (125)33% (51)28% (53).24 (56)6% (55)1.8 (21)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense847% (41)31% (6) - - - - - - 12 (12).12 (27)1.6 (111)32% (73)25% (22).17 (25)9% (7)2 (65)
ISU Offense949% (70)45% (43)19.331.2243.67.812.611 (86)7 (20).26 (68)1.5 (81)30% (45)28% (94).1 (128)7% (92)2 (65)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 3.95  #60
Arizona's Offense Rating: 10.64  #56
Arizona's Defense Rating: 6.69  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.5  #31
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #35
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #35

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 3.95   Iowa State: 12.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 11.5   Iowa State: 9.0




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 12.615  #42
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.48  #44
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 3.25  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #41
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #55
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #34

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 26
Arizona 21


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa State 21
Arizona 13

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 27
Iowa State 27

Total Points: 54
Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Iowa State39Arizona14Iowa State -4Iowa State48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State111 Overs
Arizona000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#60) ARIZ at (#42) ISU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARIZISU
Power RatePwr #60 #42
SP+SP+ #31 #41
Perf GradeGrade #35 #78
OffenseOff #56 #50
DefenseDef #17 #115
Spec TeamsST #80 #67
TalentTal #73 #66
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Arizona Notes
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
(3/22) OL 1/5 back, 6 portal adds, need hits
(3/19) QB Fifita regressed LY. Locke (Wisc) added
(3/19) Def bad LY, F7 returns a lot, 4 DB portals
Arizona Injury Report
Iowa State Notes
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
(5/23) ISU was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(4/4) CB Jontez Williams a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DT D. Orange a top 10 DT via PFF
Iowa State Injury Report
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffISU Def
Perf GradePerf #56 #115
SuccessSuc #70 #31
ExplosiveExp #19 #102
PPAPPA #48 #43
PowerPwr #56 #42
SP+SP+ #35 #34
Pts POPPO #94 #20
HavocHav #69 #80
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffISU Def
Run GameRun #51 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #59
Run ExplRExp #30 #63
PPAExp #46 #72
Run BlockR Blk #62 -
OL YdsOLY #26 #94
Stuff RateStuff #77 #60
TackleTak -  #127
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #31 #81
Pass SuccessPSuc #63 #25
Pass ExplPExl #46 #125
PPAExp #72 #58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #54 #128
F7 HavocF7 #64 #90
DB HavocDB #75 #55
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatISU OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #50 #17
SuccessSuc #46 #26
ExplosiveExp #98 #47
PPAPPA #61 #42
PowerPwr #44 #67
SP+SP+ #55 #35
Pts POPPO #93 #49
HavocHav #54 #5
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #67 #48
Run SuccessRSuc #55 #93
Run ExplRExp #85 #50
PPAExp #54 #86
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #45 #85
Stuff RateStuff #58 #79
TackleTak -  #41
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatISU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #38 #3
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #6
Pass ExplPExl #81 #111
PPAExp #68 #27
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #89
F7 HavocF7 #26 #17
DB HavocDB #92 #7
Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Iowa State -4.0 (48.5)
Iowa State won vs Arizona this year (39-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita16625465%20422148.0
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)8053026.668
Quincy Craig (Tr)3723416.354
Kedrick Reescano4119944.936
Noah Fifita628431.415
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javin Whatley (Tr)33404412.285
Kris Hutson (Tr)29355312.240
Tre Spivey (Tr)11280625.570
Chris Hunter18251213.935

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson591102
Taye Brown545021
Max Harris (Tr)512051
Genesis Smith452017
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy266360
Riley Wilson (Tr)265321
Dalton Johnson591102
Julien Savaiinaea162110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Genesis Smith452017
Ayden Garnes (Tr)180025
Michael Dansby (Tr)111004

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht16927362%21191177.8
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen11361345.465
Abu Sama III10355845.444
Dylan Lee2112215.828
Rocco Becht716180.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen22414318.875
Benjamin Brahmer32365411.427
Chase Sowell (Tr)22355116.152
Gabe Burkle24280111.744

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Neal628103
Kooper Ebel514141
Jamison Patton481003
Caleb Bacon476033
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will McLaughlin132201
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)213240
Marcus Neal628103
Kooper Ebel514141
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'Shawn James330005
Marcus Neal628103
Quentin Taylor Jr.162003