Arizona at Iowa State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones(#12)Iowa State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Jack Trice Stadium - Ames, IA  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 37 - 9 (37 - 9 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
ARIZ coming off BYE
ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -8.5   (SP+ ISU -5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 19 - ISU: 27 (46)
ISU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
ARIZ Travel: 1166 miles, 2 hrs behind
Cyclones (4 - 0) (2 - 1 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 30 - 14 (36 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#18)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+8.5
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-16.5
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+1.5
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-3
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-1
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+7
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor+0.5
Sat 11/29 Arizona at Arizona State+8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-8.5
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-4
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-2
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-6.5
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-17.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#20 (.39)40% (96)3737% (113)3.44 (30)19045% (60)2482.83 (118)#13 (-.07)30% (11)8.735% (37)27% (11)1 (3)63.30.72.7
ISU#45 (.29)45% (56)29.840% (94)2.87 (82)16151% (28)2224.14 (63)#41 (.05)36% (48)14.340% (75)33% (35)3 (50)2711.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense3373740.2%2.830.7234381902484.956%44%37%45%12%.39
ISU Defense414.31036.4%31.5 - - - - - 50%50%40%33%19%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense38.78.729.9%12.7 - - - - - 38%61%35%27%26%-.07
ISU Offense429.835.545.5%4.141203831612224.254%46%40%51%14%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona331:1622.741%80%8.363.30.72.78.32.7139.2
Iowa State430:5020.350%100%32711.561.8031.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense356% (32)37% (113)38.7189.74.96 (49).4 (10)3.44 (30)71% (67)9% (76)1.62 (1)
ISU Defense450% (67)40% (75) - - - - -.03 (39)2.75 (66)69% (63)12% (44)0.7 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense338% (5)35% (37) - - - - -.15 (13)2.24 (24)0% (2)14% (20)0.91 (65)
ISU Offense454% (50)40% (94)381614.27 (38).12 (76)2.87 (82)71% (67)8% (53)0.95 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense344% (98)45% (60)16.328.3248.38.815.26 (34)1 (23).39 (49)1.5 (80)26% (33)30% (76).66 (23)3% (22)2.3 (26)
ISU Defense450% (71)33% (35) - - - - - - 4 (12).12 (42)1.8 (116)35% (43)27% (50).12 (36)7% (38)1.7 (36)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense361% (133)27% (11) - - - - - - 5 (6)-.02 (19)1 (3)35% (45)18% (20).21 (58)11% (4)1.9 (59)
ISU Offense446% (84)51% (28)17.326.32228.512.97 (23)1 (23).48 (26)1.4 (93)29% (51)30% (77).35 (63)6% (95)1.9 (87)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 8.82 #58
Arizona's Offense Rating: 12.17 #72
Arizona's Defense Rating: 3.35 #45
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #39
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #42
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 8.82   Iowa State: 17.46

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 9.6   Iowa State: 14.3




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 17.46 #38
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 18.04 #36
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 2.42 #41
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #43
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 37 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 8.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.7

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 27
Arizona 19


Total Points: 46

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 14.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State000 Overs
Arizona000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#58) Arizona Info
Power Rating: 8.82 #58
Offense Rating: 12.17 #72
Defense Rating: 3.35 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #39
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #42
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #37
Talent Rating: 704.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 30%
Great in Scoring Position 1 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Arizona has won 3 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Arizona Notes
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
(3/22) OL 1/5 back, 6 portal adds, need hits
(3/19) QB Fifita regressed LY. Locke (Wisc) added
(3/19) Def bad LY, F7 returns a lot, 4 DB portals
(3/19) New OC/DC. Doege interesting hire.
(3/19) HC Brennan needs to show something TY

Arizona Highlights
Arizona is Undefeated vs Spread
Arizona in Undefeated

Arizona offense is explosive (#8)
Arizona has a top Offensive Line (#30)
Arizona has a really good defense (#11)
Arizona defense does not give up big plays (#6)
Arizona defense is really good in red zone (#3)
Arizona has a good pass defense (#11)
Arizona Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#19)
Arizona Defensive Line is very good (#24)
Arizona Front 7 is disruptive (#20)
Arizona Secondary is very good (#4)
Arizona has a great TO Margin (#28)
Arizona defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Arizona Deficiencies
Arizona Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Arizona offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#118)
Arizona run game is really bad (#113)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatISUARIZ
OverallOver#19#26
OffenseOff#19#49
DefenseDef#53#10
Special TeamsST#14#105
PassingPass#10#34
RushingRush#48#26
Run BlockRBLK#32#30
Pass BlockPBLK#58#74
Route RunningWR Rt#31#87
TacklingTkl#72#57
Run DefenseR Def#43#24
Pass Rush DefPRush#91#37
Coverage DefCov#42#5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARIZ | ISU
Depth Chart: ARIZ | ISU
Rosters: ARIZ | ISU
(#38) Iowa State Info
Power Rating: 17.46 #38
Offense Rating: 18.04 #36
Defense Rating: 2.42 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #43
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15
Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.14 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 36%
Avg in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Good Pass Def Success 33%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Iowa State has won 4 straight
Iowa State has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 0 - 1 vs Spread)

Iowa State Notes
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
(5/23) ISU was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(4/4) CB Jontez Williams a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DT D. Orange a top 10 DT via PFF
(3/20) QB Becht returns, dynamic & clutch
(3/20) RB Hansen/Sama return, v good combo
(3/20) WR rebuild, portal Sowell (ECU) helps a lot
(3/20) OL 3/5 back, 2 w/ good exp. Must improve TY
(3/20) Def exposed LY, need new DE's & more

Iowa State Highlights
Iowa State in Undefeated
Iowa State is Undefeated at Home
Iowa State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Iowa State has Really Good Running Game (#22)
Iowa State offense is good on 3rd downs
Iowa State commits very few Penalties (#25)
Iowa State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Iowa State Deficiencies
Iowa State Fumbles a Lot (#113)


  
Arizona's OC Seth Doege
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita467859%712609.1
Braedyn Locke (Tr)2450%11002.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)3726317.160
Quincy Craig (Tr)1816519.254
Kedrick Reescano105115.113
Noah Fifita283731.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javin Whatley (Tr)13237218.285
Luke Wysong (Tr)597019.431
Brandon Phelps576115.242
Chris Hunter565013.018

View Arizona's Full Roster
Arizona's DC Danny Gonzales
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Genesis Smith191014
Taye Brown160010
Dalton Johnson160001
Max Harris (Tr)102010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy83230
Jay'Vion Cole (Tr)61101
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)85110
Jabari Mann62110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Genesis Smith191014
Michael Dansby (Tr)81003
Ayden Garnes (Tr)60013

Iowa State's OC Taylor Mouser
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht6510065%860718.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen5425204.738
Abu Sama III3818224.844
Dylan Lee138116.228
Rocco Becht274821.810
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen7162123.166
Gabe Burkle10149114.944
Xavier Townsend (Tr)7132018.944
Benjamin Brahmer1410937.821

View Iowa State's Full Roster
Iowa State's DC Jon Heacock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Neal295101
Jamison Patton210001
Caleb Bacon193020
Kooper Ebel182110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)83220
Marcus Neal295101
Kooper Ebel182110
Ikenna Ezeogu43141
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper92003
Ta'Shawn James80003
Jontez Williams122002