SMU at Penn State - 2024 Matchup Preview

SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, December 21st 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Penn State -9 (52.5) (-325) Open: 0.0 | 53.0
Penn State 38 - SMU: 10 (CFP First Round Game Presented by Allstate)

Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 25.2°
Wind: 17.4 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Penn State -10.5 (SP+ PSU -7)
Projected Score: SMU: 21 - PSU: 31 (52)
PSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 1179 miles, 1 hrs behind

Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
SMU Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	SMU at Nevada	-28.0	55.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Sat 8/31	SMU vs Houston Christian	-32.5
Fri 9/6	SMU vs BYU	-12.5	55.5	L 15 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	SMU vs TCU	+1.0	58.5	W 66 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/28	SMU vs Florida State	-6.0	46.0	W 42 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/5	SMU at Louisville	+6.5	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	SMU at Stanford	-16.5	52.5	W 40 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	SMU at Duke	-11.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	SMU vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	55.5	W 48 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	SMU vs Boston College	-19.0	54.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/23	SMU at Virginia	-11.5	54.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/30	SMU vs California	-11.5	54.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/7	SMU vs Clemson	-2.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	SMU at Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Penn State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Penn State at West Virginia	-7.5	48.0	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Penn State vs Bowling Green	-35.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Penn State vs Kent State	-49.0	58.0	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Penn State vs Illinois	-19.5	48.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/5	Penn State vs UCLA	-30.0	48.0	W 27 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/12	Penn State at USC	-3.5	51.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Penn State at Wisconsin	-6.5	47.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	Penn State vs Washington	-13.5	48.0	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Penn State at Purdue	-30.0	51.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Penn State at Minnesota	-11.0	45.0	W 26 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/30	Penn State vs Maryland	-26.5	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Penn State vs Oregon	+3.5	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/21	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)	36.5	44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)	22.1	39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)	33.1	52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)	16.5	39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	14	36.5	29	44.1%	4.41	1.7	23	432	169	263	4.4	51%	49%	44%	44%	15%	.24
PSU Defense	16	16.5	11	37.9%	3.22	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	39%	37%	18%	.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	14	22.1	22.2	36.7%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	39%	35%	18%	.03
PSU Offense	16	33.1	33.5	51.3%	4.69	0.8	20	385	176	209	5.3	54%	46%	52%	51%	10%	.32

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	14	28:28	22.6	44%	50%	8.1	77.7	1.7	1.6	6.6	3.1	3	31.1
Penn State	16	26:51	20.4	48%	70%	4.4	41.4	0.8	1.3	5.5	2.3	4	28.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	14	51% (65)	44% (62)	38.3	168.9	4.4	29 (18)	.12 (77)	2.97 (83)	70% (90)	9% (49)	0.93 (86)
PSU Defense	16	48% (43)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.37 (3)	75% (75)	12% (26)	0.92 (42)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	14	44% (9)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-.05 (2)	2.72 (25)	60% (10)	11% (36)	0.81 (6)
PSU Offense	16	54% (38)	52% (9)	33.2	176.2	5.3	31 (17)	.24 (20)	3.42 (10)	76% (51)	7% (8)	0.92 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	14	49% (70)	44% (45)	19.9	31.2	262.9	8.4	13.2	28 (15)	12 (85)	.37 (19)	1.8 (11)	33% (94)	34% (34)	.47 (17)	6% (69)	2.3 (13)
PSU Defense	16	52% (96)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.1 (16)	1.7 (91)	36% (14)	27% (25)	.2 (29)	6% (57)	2.1 (95)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	14	55% (124)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.11 (17)	1.7 (107)	37% (7)	27% (21)	.16 (12)	7% (30)	2.1 (96)
PSU Offense	16	46% (95)	51% (4)	16.7	24.3	208.8	8.6	12.5	27 (20)	9 (48)	.41 (11)	1.5 (107)	26% (3)	35% (31)	.46 (20)	3% (5)	2 (85)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59 Penn State: 26.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5 Penn State: 24.6

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 26.93 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 31
SMU 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 25
Penn State 25

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 28
SMU 24

Total Points: 52

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 11

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/21	Penn State	38	SMU	10	Penn State -9	Penn State	52.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	1	1	0 Overs
SMU	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

SMU Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP 1st Round	SMU vs Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38
2023	Fenway Bowl	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23
2022	Mexico Bowl	SMU vs BYU	-4.5	65.0	L 23 - 24
2019	Raton Bowl	SMU vs Florida Atlantic	-7.5	64.0	L 28 - 52

Penn State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Semifinal	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14
2024	CFP 1st Round	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10
2023	Peach Bowl	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38
2022	Rose Bowl	Penn State vs Utah	-1.5	55.5	W 35 - 21
2021	Outback Bowl	Penn State vs Arkansas	+3.5	51.0	L 10 - 24
2019	Cotton Bowl	Penn State vs Memphis	-7.0	59.5	W 53 - 39
2018	Citrus Bowl	Penn State vs Kentucky	-4.5	47.5	L 24 - 27

(#13) SMU at (#6) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	PSU
Power RatePwr	#13	#6
SP+SP+	#12	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#14	#12
OffenseOff	#30	#15
DefenseDef	#13	#16
Spec TeamsST	#84	#62
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#47	#15

SMU Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	PSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#30	#16
SuccessSuc	#53	#21
ExplosiveExp	#21	#81
PPAPPA	#38	#9
PowerPwr	#28	#7
SP+SP+	#5	#4
Pts POPPO	#25	#18
HavocHav	#46	#38

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#74	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#27
Run ExplRExp	#86	#42
PPAExp	#77	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#57	#1
TackleTak	-	#81

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#45	#25
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#91
PPAExp	#19	#16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#10
F7 HavocF7	#49	#26
DB HavocDB	#69	#57

Penn State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	SMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#15	#13
SuccessSuc	#4	#9
ExplosiveExp	#116	#69
PPAPPA	#11	#5
PowerPwr	#2	#5
SP+SP+	#9	#30
Pts POPPO	#9	#13
HavocHav	#3	#29

Penn State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#21	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#35
Run ExplRExp	#90	#6
PPAExp	#20	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#27
TackleTak	-	#43

Penn State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#107	#107
PPAExp	#11	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#89	#15
F7 HavocF7	#8	#36
DB HavocDB	#5	#30

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 25° - Wind: 17 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Penn State -9.0 (52.5)
Penn State won vs SMU this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat SMU last year (38-10)

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	248	381	65%	3189	23	11	8.4
Preston Stone	30	51	59%	421	5	1	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Kevin Jennings	101	354	5	3.5	59
LJ Johnson Jr.	74	303	5	4.1	35
Roderick Daniels	44	160	3	3.6	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roderick Daniels	42	601	4	14.3	81
Keyshawn Smith	33	527	5	16.0	45
Jordan Hudson	39	422	5	10.8	42
Kelvontay Dixon	21	386	1	18.4	87

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson	102	6	3	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	95	3	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker	88	8	1	4	3
Ahmaad Moses	64	6	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)	30	13	8	9	1
Isaiah Smith	31	9	7	6	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)	40	8	7	5	0
Elijah Roberts	32	10	7	10	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonathan McGill	52	2	1	6
Brandon Crossley	30	1	1	6
Deuce Harmon (Tr)	28	2	0	6

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	262	394	67%	3327	24	8	8.4
Beau Pribula	26	35	74%	275	5	1	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	220	1108	8	5.0	32
Nicholas Singleton	172	1099	12	6.4	58
Drew Allar	96	302	6	3.1	22
Beau Pribula	38	242	4	6.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Harrison Wallace III	47	732	4	15.6	50
Omari Evans	20	403	5	20.2	59
Nicholas Singleton	41	375	5	9.1	27

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Zakee Wheatley	86	3	1	0	4
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dani Dennis-Sutton	40	13	9	9	3
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elliot Washington II	25	1	0	6
Cam Miller	23	3	2	5
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	5