Oklahoma State at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oklahoma State logo   Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona Wildcats  Arizona logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
Arizona -21.5 (56.5) (-1600)  Open: -17.5
Arizona 41 - Oklahoma State: 13  (Big 12)

 
Cowboys (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (10 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Arizona -22.5  (SP+ ARIZ -27)
Projected Score: OKST: 15 - ARIZ: 38 (53)
ARIZ Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 837 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (35 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.554.5L 12 - 19UN
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.058.5L 27 - 45OY
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.556.5L 13 - 41UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.547.5L 17 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.557.5L 17 - 49ON
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.556.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.554.5L 21 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.550.5L 6 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+13.547.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.547.5L 13 - 20UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-5.556.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+6.556.5W 30 - 24UY
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-6.561.5W 41 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State-2.048.5W 23 - 7UY
Fri 1/2 Arizona vs SMU+2.555.5L 19 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)14.243% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)33.347% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)31.537% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)19.345% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Offense1214.210.243.1%4.221.8203791142653.942%58%43%44%15%.21
ARIZ Defense1219.315.644.6%4.551.2 - - - - - 51%48%45%44%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Defense1233.341.445.6%3.931.3 - - - - - 50%50%47%44%15%.34
ARIZ Offense1231.534.938.5%3.531.7193551072483.939%61%37%40%16%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oklahoma State1227:0320.435%65%543.21.81.35.52.1127.1
Arizona1229:4518.543%42%6.557.61.71.24.81.7027.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Offense1242% (117)43% (86)29.4114.23.918 (78).04 (109)2.79 (107)74% (61)7% (19)0.87 (119)
ARIZ Defense1251% (73)45% (90) - - - - .18 (100)3.32 (115)78% (99)9% (94)1.08 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Defense1250% (65)47% (107) - - - - .31 (133)3.43 (126)73% (68)8% (112)1.25 (133)
ARIZ Offense1239% (127)37% (126)27.4106.73.911 (116).03 (112)2.64 (123)55% (134)9% (59)1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Offense1258% (17)44% (47)22.337.5264.77.111.922 (46)17 (127).34 (30)1.6 (67)31% (66)31% (82).32 (77)7% (109)1.9 (99)
ARIZ Defense1248% (61)44% (109) - - - - - - 6 (109).31 (103)1.6 (66)31% (88)32% (95).39 (101)5% (93)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Defense1250% (73)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (39).37 (123)1.8 (124)32% (56)36% (119).46 (120)6% (53)2.1 (88)
ARIZ Offense1261% (8)40% (91)21.836.4247.96.811.418 (68)13 (103).22 (88)1.6 (44)36% (124)31% (70).33 (71)6% (88)2.1 (35)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -7.42  #89
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 7.49  #106
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.91  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2  #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -7.42   Arizona: 10.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -15.1   Arizona: 12.0




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.995  #50
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.18  #45
Arizona's Defense Rating: 12.19  #57
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.0  #28
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #29
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.2
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.4

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 38
Oklahoma State 15


Projected Total Points: 53
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.9
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Arizona41Oklahoma State13Arizona -21.5Arizona56.5Under
201209/08Arizona59Oklahoma State38
201109/08Oklahoma State37Arizona14
201012/29Arizona10Oklahoma State36
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona210 Overs
Oklahoma State201 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 30 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#89) OKST at (#50) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOKSTARIZ
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #89 #50
SP+SP+ #121 #28
Perf GradeGrade #131 #31
OffenseOff #133 #55
DefenseDef #118 #13
Spec TeamsST #125 #88
TalentTal #32 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Oklahoma State Notes
(12/13) Hired DC Skyler Cassity from N Tex w/ Morris
(11/25) Hired N Tex HC Eric Morris, will join after season
(10/26) Starting OT Grant Seagren entered portal
(10/22) OL Noah McKinney left for the portal, starting OG
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
Oklahoma State Injury Report
Arizona Notes
(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report
Oklahoma State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
OKST OffARIZ Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #133 #13
SuccessSuc #63 #100
ExplosiveExp #69 #96
PPAPPA #52 #109
PowerPwr #106 #57
SP+SP+ #131 #25
Pts POPPO #42 #125
HavocHav #45 #99
Oklahoma State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
OKST OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #126 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #90
Run ExplRExp #119 #109
PPAExp #109 #100
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #115
Stuff RateStuff #80 #102
TackleTak -  #47
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
OKST OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #133 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #109
Pass ExplPExl #67 #66
PPAExp #30 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #111
F7 HavocF7 #19 #94
DB HavocDB #109 #93
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffOKST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #55 #118
SuccessSuc #117 #109
ExplosiveExp #3 #132
PPAPPA #93 #131
PowerPwr #45 #77
SP+SP+ #29 #100
Pts POPPO #101 #82
HavocHav #65 #89
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #73 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #126 #107
Run ExplRExp #6 #133
PPAExp #112 #133
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #126
Stuff RateStuff #133 #119
TackleTak -  #89
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #28 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #108
Pass ExplPExl #44 #124
PPAExp #88 #123
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #111
F7 HavocF7 #59 #112
DB HavocDB #88 #53
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Arizona -21.5 (56.5)
Arizona won vs Oklahoma State this year (41-13)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Oklahoma State last year (41-13)

  
OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores15526259%1454375.5
Sam Jackson356653%351125.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Fields Jr.12461415.041
Trenten Howland6324333.924
Sesi Vailahi4215223.614
Kalib Hicks (Tr)4412802.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman5348149.133
Terrill Davis (Tr)29373012.941
Shamar Rigby (Tr)25351114.048
Rodney Fields Jr.2827619.963

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Robertson779115
Bryan McCoy (Tr)712041
Brandon Rawls685200
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)392101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)2712471
Malik Charles (Tr)283310
Taje Mccoy (Tr)214211
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.242211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kenneth Harris332115
Parker Robertson779115
Cam Smith341014

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita27542964%32282967.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)13385346.468
Kedrick Reescano8439694.750
Quincy Craig (Tr)6536425.654
Noah Fifita11522231.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)60764412.740
Javin Whatley (Tr)41490512.085
Tre Spivey (Tr)23381716.670
Chris Hunter27372213.835

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson972107
Taye Brown939231
Max Harris (Tr)784071
Genesis Smith773018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy428470
Riley Wilson (Tr)518354
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)2611220
Taye Brown939231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Dansby (Tr)1910010
Ayden Garnes (Tr)432028
Genesis Smith773018