Oklahoma State at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oklahoma State logo Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona WildcatsArizona logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
Arizona -21.5 (56.5) (-1600)  Open: -17.5
Arizona 41 - Oklahoma State: 13  (Big 12)

 
Cowboys (1 - 5) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Doug Meacham (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 37 (8 - 55 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1.4 - 10.6 (#134)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Arizona -21.5  (SP+ ARIZ -21)
Projected Score: OKST: 17 - ARIZ: 39 (56)
ARIZ Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 837 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Wildcats (4 - 2) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (36 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#67)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.554.5L 12 - 19UN
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.058.5L 27 - 45OY
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.556.5L 13 - 41UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.547.5L 17 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+21.557.5
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+41.5
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+14.5
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+17.5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+20

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.545.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-0.5
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas+0.5
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+10
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-0
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State+4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#129 (.04)33% (134)16.535% (130)2.53 (123)12531% (131)1763.46 (109)#130 (.3)45% (107)36.741% (54)50% (130)4.05 (88)60.70.81.2
ARIZ#84 (.17)41% (94)32.241% (96)3.23 (32)14841% (81)2753.21 (119)#19 (.04)34% (11)18.541% (57)28% (3)3.08 (23)46.31.32.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Offense616.5833%3.460.8153011251763.646%54%35%31%19%.04
ARIZ Defense618.514.434.4%3.082.2 - - - - - 50%50%41%28%24%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Defense636.75544.9%4.051.2 - - - - - 51%48%41%50%16%.3
ARIZ Offense632.235.841.3%3.211.3234231482754.344%56%41%41%16%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oklahoma State627:3015.333%38%6.560.70.81.25.82125.6
Arizona630:4423.236%67%5.746.31.32.27.82.3134.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Offense646% (96)35% (130)35124.73.65 (115)-.03 (128)2.53 (123)71% (76)11% (107)0.92 (92)
ARIZ Defense650% (68)41% (57) - - - - .06 (50)2.58 (30)64% (35)14% (10)0.97 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Defense651% (84)41% (54) - - - - .14 (95)2.9 (79)74% (83)10% (69)1.17 (121)
ARIZ Offense644% (111)41% (96)34.2147.84.37 (95).17 (50)3.23 (32)75% (53)9% (62)1.14 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Offense654% (38)31% (131)16.730.7176.25.710.64 (125)4 (50).1 (120)1.6 (60)40% (136)21% (132).17 (109)8% (125)2.1 (43)
ARIZ Defense650% (64)28% (3) - - - - - - 9 (6).02 (10)1.5 (78)34% (37)23% (16).08 (13)10% (4)1.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Defense648% (52)50% (130) - - - - - - 3 (93).49 (132)1.7 (103)29% (113)31% (88).43 (119)6% (80)2 (68)
ARIZ Offense656% (25)41% (81)22.836.82757.51215 (13)6 (102).17 (105)1.5 (95)30% (53)28% (97).41 (44)7% (107)2.1 (48)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -9.22  #108
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 4.05  #110
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 13.27  #97
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.4 - 10.6
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.2  #112
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #111
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #109

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -9.22   Arizona: 10.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -12.2   Arizona: 9.1




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.615  #55
Arizona's Offense Rating: 7.90  #86
Arizona's Defense Rating: 0.77  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1  #43
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #50
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 16.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 8
Defense: 36.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 55

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 39
Oklahoma State 17


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 43
Oklahoma State 11

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 40
Oklahoma State 15

Total Points: 55
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Arizona41Oklahoma State13Arizona -21.5Arizona56.5Under
201209/08Arizona59Oklahoma State38
201109/08Oklahoma State37Arizona14
201012/29Arizona10Oklahoma State36
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona210 Overs
Oklahoma State201 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 30 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#108) OKST at (#55) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOKSTARIZ
Power RatePwr #108 #55
SP+SP+ #112 #43
Perf GradeGrade #129 #35
OffenseOff #134 #52
DefenseDef #97 #16
Spec TeamsST #88 #56
TalentTal #32 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65

Oklahoma State Notes
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
(7/30) 65 total new players, 35 added after spring
(5/23) Def added 18 portals, 9 DL, 3 LB, 6 DB. Improve?
(5/23) Need to see Off because it looks bad on paper

Arizona Notes
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
(3/22) OL 1/5 back, 6 portal adds, need hits
(3/19) QB Fifita regressed LY. Locke (Wisc) added
(3/19) Def bad LY, F7 returns a lot, 4 DB portals
Oklahoma State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKST OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #134 #16
SuccessSuc #134 #11
ExplosiveExp #64 #48
PPAPPA #129 #19
PowerPwr #110 #32
SP+SP+ #111 #37
Pts POPPO #109 #23
HavocHav #123 #3
Oklahoma State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKST OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #100 #48
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #57
Run ExplRExp #92 #78
PPAExp #128 #50
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #30
Stuff RateStuff #91 #38
TackleTak -  #49
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKST OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #132 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #3
Pass ExplPExl #60 #78
PPAExp #120 #10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #42 #78
F7 HavocF7 #107 #10
DB HavocDB #125 #4
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatARIZ OffOKST Def
Perf GradePerf #52 #97
SuccessSuc #94 #107
ExplosiveExp #35 #126
PPAPPA #84 #130
PowerPwr #86 #97
SP+SP+ #50 #109
Pts POPPO #119 #88
HavocHav #79 #73
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #56 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #54
Run ExplRExp #17 #121
PPAExp #50 #95
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #79
Stuff RateStuff #88 #70
TackleTak -  #114
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatARIZ OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #16 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #130
Pass ExplPExl #95 #103
PPAExp #105 #132
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37 #67
F7 HavocF7 #62 #69
DB HavocDB #107 #80
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 85° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Arizona -21.5 (56.5)
Arizona won vs Oklahoma State this year (41-13)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores7714055%696035.0
Sam Jackson142752%161116.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Fields Jr.5525704.736
Kalib Hicks (Tr)3911703.014
Zane Flores3011413.827
Trenten Howland2710824.018
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman19203210.733
Rodney Fields Jr.16188111.863
Shamar Rigby (Tr)12171014.341
Terrill Davis (Tr)12149012.441

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Clint Bowen (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan McCoy (Tr)401011
Brandon Rawls402200
Parker Robertson353002
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)260001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)199341
Brandon Rawls402200
Malik Charles (Tr)162200
Poasa Utu62200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Smith120013
Kenneth Harris150013
Landyn Cleveland151002

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita13120963%15601547.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)5956%68017.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)7140315.760
Quincy Craig (Tr)2820717.454
Kedrick Reescano2514525.836
Noah Fifita486031.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javin Whatley (Tr)25328313.185
Kris Hutson (Tr)20262213.140
Chris Hunter17239214.135
Luke Wysong (Tr)15229115.347

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson411102
Genesis Smith382015
Taye Brown363021
Max Harris (Tr)322040
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Wilson (Tr)194311
Chase Kennedy164250
Dalton Johnson411102
Julien Savaiinaea102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Garnes (Tr)140015
Genesis Smith382015
Michael Dansby (Tr)111004