Kansas State at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kansas State logo Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona WildcatsArizona logo
Friday, September 12th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Kansas State -1.5 (55.5) (-118)  Open: 0.0
Arizona 23 - Kansas State: 17  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (6 - 6) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#82)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
Wind: 12.7 MPH
ARIZ 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arizona -3.5  (SP+ ARIZ -5)

Projected Score: KSU: 26 - ARIZ: 29 (55)
KSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
KSU Travel: 937 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (35 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-5.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+4.559.5L 34 - 35OY
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+3.054.5W 41 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+3.555.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.551.5L 20 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.550.5W 14 - 6UN
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+18.552.5L 47 - 51OY
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-16.550.5W 24 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-5.556.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+6.556.5W 30 - 24UY
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-6.561.5W 41 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State-2.048.5W 23 - 7UY
Fri 1/2 Arizona vs SMU+2.555.5L 19 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)29.446% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)26.734% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)31.537% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)19.345% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KSU Offense1329.430.844%4.081.2183871901966.152%48%46%42%12%.3
ARIZ Defense1219.315.644.6%4.551.2 - - - - - 51%48%45%44%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KSU Defense1326.726.435.9%3.541.1 - - - - - 47%53%34%38%17%.11
ARIZ Offense1231.534.938.5%3.531.7193551072483.939%61%37%40%16%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kansas State1326:4518.540%56%541.31.21.15.92.4327.6
Arizona1229:4518.543%42%6.557.61.71.24.81.7027.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KSU Offense1352% (57)46% (42)31.5190.36.118 (78).27 (11)3.37 (14)68% (102)8% (29)1.14 (10)
ARIZ Defense1251% (73)45% (90) - - - - .18 (100)3.32 (115)78% (99)9% (94)1.08 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KSU Defense1347% (31)34% (4) - - - - -.01 (10)2.6 (15)77% (97)11% (39)1.01 (83)
ARIZ Offense1239% (127)37% (126)27.4106.73.911 (116).03 (112)2.64 (123)55% (134)9% (59)1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KSU Offense1348% (76)42% (68)15.927196.47.312.322 (46)9 (48).33 (36)1.7 (31)31% (56)31% (76).36 (57)5% (27)2 (79)
ARIZ Defense1248% (61)44% (109) - - - - - - 6 (109).31 (103)1.6 (66)31% (88)32% (95).39 (101)5% (93)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KSU Defense1353% (104)38% (32) - - - - - - 9 (76).24 (72)1.8 (130)39% (2)30% (52).35 (88)6% (68)2.2 (119)
ARIZ Offense1261% (8)40% (91)21.836.4247.96.811.418 (68)13 (103).22 (88)1.6 (44)36% (124)31% (70).33 (71)6% (88)2.1 (35)

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 7.78  #47
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 16.92  #47
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 9.14  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.0  #42
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3  #46
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kansas State: 7.78   Arizona: 10.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kansas State: 7.0   Arizona: 12.0




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.995  #50
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.18  #45
Arizona's Defense Rating: 12.19  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.0  #28
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #29
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 29
Kansas State 26


Projected Total Points: 55
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.9
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/12Arizona23Kansas State17Kansas State -1.5Arizona55.5Under
202409/13Kansas State31Arizona7Kansas State -7Kansas State58.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona110 Overs
Kansas State112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#47) KSU at (#50) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatKSUARIZ
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #47 #50
SP+SP+ #42 #28
Perf GradeGrade #65 #31
OffenseOff #57 #55
DefenseDef #87 #13
Spec TeamsST #12 #88
TalentTal #46 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #65
Kansas State Notes
(12/11) OC Matt Wells was a disaster hire for K St
(12/3) HC Klieman retiring. A&M OC Colin Klen new HC
(11/24) RB Joe Jackson torched Utah for 293 yds, still lost
(10/22) RB Dylan Edwards out again vs Kansas, shocker...
(10/12) Off mat W over TCU, forced 3 TOs. Still not good
(10/5) Blew 14 pt 4Q lead @ Baylor. Season turner/ender?
(10/4) QB2 Blake Barnett is clearly not ready
(9/13) Broken team, QB Johnson unplayable, Off awful
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
Kansas State Injury Report
Arizona Notes
(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report
Kansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffARIZ Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #57 #13
SuccessSuc #55 #100
ExplosiveExp #9 #96
PPAPPA #17 #109
PowerPwr #47 #56
SP+SP+ #46 #25
Pts POPPO #53 #125
HavocHav #21 #99
Kansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #103 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #90
Run ExplRExp #10 #109
PPAExp #11 #100
Run BlockR Blk #25 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #115
Stuff RateStuff #79 #102
TackleTak -  #47
Kansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #54 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #68 #109
Pass ExplPExl #31 #66
PPAExp #36 #103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #61 #111
F7 HavocF7 #29 #94
DB HavocDB #27 #93
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffKSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #55 #87
SuccessSuc #117 #6
ExplosiveExp #3 #129
PPAPPA #93 #29
PowerPwr #45 #39
SP+SP+ #29 #58
Pts POPPO #101 #43
HavocHav #65 #50
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #73 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #126 #4
Run ExplRExp #6 #83
PPAExp #112 #10
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #15
Stuff RateStuff #133 #12
TackleTak -  #102
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #28 #76
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #32
Pass ExplPExl #44 #130
PPAExp #88 #72
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #93
F7 HavocF7 #59 #39
DB HavocDB #88 #68
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

KSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 90° - Wind: 13 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Kansas State 1.5 (55.5)
Arizona won vs Kansas State this year (23-17)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Kansas State last year (23-17)
Kansas State beat Arizona in 2024 (31-7)

  
KSU's OC Matt Wells (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson20434160%23801867.0
Linkon Cure010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson16991185.480
Avery Johnson10947784.458
Dylan Edwards3420526.075
Antonio Martin1912916.837
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown41712517.478
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)47595312.738
Garrett Oakley38389610.235
Jerand Bradley (Tr)13184214.265

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desmond Purnell729464
Austin Romaine667172
VJ Payne593003
Zashon Rich5731010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Stufflebean225550
Ryan Davis146414
Tobi Osunsanmi206420
Desmond Purnell729464
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich5731010
Desmond Purnell729464
Donovan McIntosh330004

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita27542964%32282967.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)13385346.468
Kedrick Reescano8439694.750
Quincy Craig (Tr)6536425.654
Noah Fifita11522231.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)60764412.740
Javin Whatley (Tr)41490512.085
Tre Spivey (Tr)23381716.670
Chris Hunter27372213.835

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson972107
Taye Brown939231
Max Harris (Tr)784071
Genesis Smith773018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy428470
Riley Wilson (Tr)518354
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)2611220
Taye Brown939231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Dansby (Tr)1910010
Ayden Garnes (Tr)432028
Genesis Smith773018