Troy at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Buffalo -5.5 (43.5) (-225) Open: -1.5
Troy 21 - Buffalo: 17

Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

BUFF is playing their 4th straight game
TROY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Troy -1 (SP+ TROY -5.5)
Projected Score: TROY: 23 - BUFF: 22 (45)
BUFF Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
TROY Travel: 867 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Troy vs Nicholls	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Troy at Clemson	+31.0	51.5	L 16 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Troy vs Memphis	+4.5	51.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/20	Troy at Buffalo	+5.5	43.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Troy vs South Alabama	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Troy at Texas State	+7.5	53.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Troy at UL Monroe	-4.5	45.5	W 37 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Troy vs Louisiana	-7.0	47.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Troy vs Arkansas State	-7.5	52.5	L 10 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13	Troy at Old Dominion	+9.5	53.5	L 0 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/22	Troy vs Georgia State	-9.5	51.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Troy at Southern Miss	+6.5	50.5	W 28 - 18	U	Y
Fri 12/5	Troy at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Tue 12/16	Troy vs Jacksonville State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Buffalo at Minnesota	+16.5	45.5	L 10 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)	-37.0	48.0	W 45 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Buffalo at Kent State	-23.5	48.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	Buffalo vs Troy	-5.5	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/27	Buffalo vs UConn	+3.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	53.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Buffalo at Massachusetts	-16.5	47.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/25	Buffalo vs Akron	-10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+2.5	44.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Buffalo at Central Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 19 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/19	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	38.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Fri 11/28	Buffalo vs Ohio	+7.0	44.5	L 26 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#111 (.1)	38% (114)	23.5	39% (113)	2.82 (91)	98	38% (105)	209	3.67 (74)	#54 (.12)	40% (53)	23.9	41% (60)	39% (42)	3.17 (31)	52.1	1.3	1.3
BUFF	#117 (.07)	39% (108)	24	39% (108)	2.68 (114)	133	39% (101)	229	3.5 (88)	#49 (.12)	39% (36)	23.5	39% (27)	40% (46)	3.07 (24)	45.7	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	23.5	23.4	38.2%	3.67	1.3	17	307	98	209	2.8	47%	51%	39%	38%	20%	.1
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	24.1	39.1%	3.07	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	39%	40%	15%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	23.9	25.9	40%	3.17	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	41%	39%	16%	.12
BUFF Offense	12	24	24.6	38.8%	3.5	1.8	19	362	133	229	3.9	45%	53%	39%	39%	16%	.07

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	29:55	17.3	39%	47%	5.6	52.1	1.3	1.3	6.1	2.6	3	31
Buffalo	12	28:03	19.4	36%	40%	5.4	45.7	1.8	1.3	6.1	2.8	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	47% (85)	39% (113)	35.1	98	2.8	17 (88)	.02 (117)	2.82 (91)	78% (26)	12% (126)	0.87 (114)
BUFF Defense	12	55% (124)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	.05 (38)	2.96 (81)	66% (31)	10% (53)	0.89 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	54% (115)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	.1 (67)	3.01 (96)	66% (32)	11% (39)	0.95 (63)
BUFF Offense	12	45% (105)	39% (108)	34.4	133.2	3.9	15 (70)	-.03 (128)	2.68 (114)	69% (92)	9% (64)	0.88 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	51% (55)	38% (105)	17.9	30.9	209.2	6.8	11.7	20 (42)	12 (88)	.17 (110)	1.7 (25)	34% (114)	28% (97)	.28 (77)	7% (116)	2.2 (23)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (10)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (123)	.23 (60)	1.6 (98)	32% (52)	28% (40)	.17 (18)	5% (95)	1.7 (4)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	44% (20)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (75)	.17 (39)	1.7 (120)	34% (29)	28% (43)	.23 (45)	6% (76)	2.1 (102)
BUFF Offense	12	53% (31)	39% (101)	19.6	34.3	229	6.7	11.7	19 (75)	14 (34)	.19 (103)	1.5 (100)	34% (112)	27% (107)	.28 (75)	7% (103)	2 (77)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.83 #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52 #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.83 Buffalo: -5.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -3.2 Buffalo: -8.7

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.865 #98
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 0.35 #126
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.38 #72
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7 #100
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #120
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #74

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 23
Buffalo 22

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Buffalo 32
Troy 14

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Buffalo 25
Troy 24

Total Points: 49

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Buffalo	17	Troy	21	Buffalo -5.5	Troy	43.5	Under
2018	12/22	Troy	42	Buffalo	32	Buffalo -2	Troy	50.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	0	0	1 Overs
Troy	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#93) TROY at (#98) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	BUFF
Power RatePwr	#93	#98
SP+SP+	#83	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#98	#62
OffenseOff	#96	#77
DefenseDef	#81	#42
Spec TeamsST	#67	#20
TalentTal	#100	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#101

Troy Notes(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#42
SuccessSuc	#114	#36
ExplosiveExp	#39	#56
PPAPPA	#111	#49
PowerPwr	#111	#72
SP+SP+	#82	#74
Pts POPPO	#74	#24
HavocHav	#128	#75

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#129	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#27
Run ExplRExp	#114	#35
PPAExp	#117	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#93
TackleTak	-	#20

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#98
PPAExp	#110	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#23
F7 HavocF7	#126	#53
DB HavocDB	#116	#95

Buffalo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	TROY Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#81
SuccessSuc	#108	#53
ExplosiveExp	#104	#86
PPAPPA	#117	#54
PowerPwr	#126	#77
SP+SP+	#120	#81
Pts POPPO	#88	#31
HavocHav	#86	#55

Buffalo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#112	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#60
Run ExplRExp	#105	#63
PPAExp	#128	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#59
TackleTak	-	#113

Buffalo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#120
PPAExp	#103	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#75
F7 HavocF7	#64	#39
DB HavocDB	#103	#76

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 68° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Buffalo -5.5 (43.5)
Troy won at Buffalo this year (21-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Kilcrease	130	222	59%	1537	9	6	6.9
Will Crowder	115	196	59%	1327	11	5	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tae Meadows	159	695	6	4.4	47
Jordan Lovett	89	339	2	3.8	22
Tucker Kilcrease	116	126	5	1.1	34
Jarris Williams	19	57	1	3.0	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)	39	629	5	16.1	75
Tray Taylor (Tr)	31	513	3	16.5	60
DJ Epps	46	498	5	10.8	48
Ethan Conner	31	397	3	12.8	39

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Stringer	123	12	3	1	4
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Justin Powe	75	1	0	0	1
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donnie Smith	44	14	11	7	2
Jah-Mal Williams	46	6	5	4	3
Jamel Fils-Aime	24	4	3	1	0
Elijah Davis (Tr)	44	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Kaleno Levine (Tr)	45	4	0	0	5

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	206	356	58%	2520	17	12	7.1
Gunnar Gray	29	53	55%	228	2	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	182	755	6	4.1	41
Terrance Shelton Jr.	57	244	1	4.3	20
Lamar Sperling	39	234	1	6.0	63
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	83	125	3	1.5	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan	61	975	3	16.0	55
Victor Snow	62	815	8	13.1	75
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	36	410	3	11.4	39
Al-Jay Henderson	25	181	1	7.2	22

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1
Miles Greer (Tr)	74	3	3	1	3
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)	70	6	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Malin White	55	9	4	4	0
Junior Poyser	30	5	4	2	0
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Kobi Blackwell	20	7
Solomon Brown	56	5
Keontez Bradley (Tr)	28	4