Troy at Old Dominion - 2025 Matchup Preview

Thursday, November 13th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Old Dominion -9.5 (53.5) (-400) Open: -10.5 | 53.5
Old Dominion 33 - Troy: 0 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

TROY coming off BYE
ODU coming off BYE
Our Line: Old Dominion -9.5 (SP+ ODU -10)
Projected Score: TROY: 22 - ODU: 31 (53)
ODU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TROY Travel: 653 miles, 1 hrs behind

Monarchs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (20 - 30)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (34 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#33)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
ODU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Troy vs Nicholls	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Troy at Clemson	+31.0	51.5	L 16 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Troy vs Memphis	+4.5	51.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/20	Troy at Buffalo	+5.5	43.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Troy vs South Alabama	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Troy at Texas State	+7.5	53.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Troy at UL Monroe	-4.5	45.5	W 37 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Troy vs Louisiana	-7.0	47.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Troy vs Arkansas State	-7.5	52.5	L 10 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13	Troy at Old Dominion	+9.5	53.5	L 0 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/22	Troy vs Georgia State	-9.5	51.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Troy at Southern Miss	+6.5	50.5	W 28 - 18	U	Y
Fri 12/5	Troy at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Tue 12/16	Troy vs Jacksonville State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Old Dominion at Indiana	+23.5	54.5	L 14 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central	-22.0	50.5	W 54 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Old Dominion at Virginia Tech	+5.5	50.5	W 45 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Old Dominion vs Liberty	-14.5	53.5	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/4	Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina	-18.5	53.5	W 47 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Old Dominion at Marshall	-14.5	57.5	L 24 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	Old Dominion at James Madison	+3.0	47.5	L 27 - 63	O	N
Sat 10/25	Old Dominion vs App State	-12.5	60.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/1	Old Dominion at UL Monroe	-16.5	55.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13	Old Dominion vs Troy	-9.5	53.5	W 33 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Old Dominion at Georgia Southern	-10.0	62.0	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Old Dominion vs Georgia State	-29.0	58.5	W 27 - 10	U	N
Wed 12/17	Old Dominion vs South Florida	+4.0	52.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Old Dominion's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#111 (.1)	38% (114)	23.5	39% (113)	2.82 (91)	98	38% (105)	209	3.67 (74)	#54 (.12)	40% (53)	23.9	41% (60)	39% (42)	3.17 (31)	52.1	1.3	1.3
ODU	#28 (.25)	46% (30)	32	47% (30)	3.19 (25)	239	44% (44)	216	3.94 (48)	#8 (.03)	39% (40)	18.5	45% (101)	34% (11)	3.03 (20)	53.8	1.8	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7
ODU	#47 (.22)	42% (71)		45% (55)	3.24 (34)	211	40% (89)	193	4.75 (6)	#71 (.17)	39% (33)		38% (22)	40% (64)	3.64 (50)	54.2	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	23.5	23.4	38.2%	3.67	1.3	17	307	98	209	2.8	47%	51%	39%	38%	20%	.1
ODU Defense	13	18.5	8.5	39.2%	3.03	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	47%	45%	34%	19%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	23.9	25.9	40%	3.17	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	41%	39%	16%	.12
ODU Offense	13	32	34.3	45.9%	3.94	1.8	22	455	239	216	5.6	58%	41%	47%	44%	14%	.25

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	29:55	17.3	39%	47%	5.6	52.1	1.3	1.3	6.1	2.6	3	31
Old Dominion	13	28:29	22.5	41%	31%	6	53.8	1.8	2	6.9	3	0	30.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	47% (85)	39% (113)	35.1	98	2.8	17 (88)	.02 (117)	2.82 (91)	78% (26)	12% (126)	0.87 (114)
ODU Defense	13	50% (72)	45% (101)	-	-	-	-	.01 (22)	2.91 (75)	62% (14)	12% (15)	0.78 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	54% (115)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	.1 (67)	3.01 (96)	66% (32)	11% (39)	0.95 (63)
ODU Offense	13	58% (16)	47% (30)	42.5	238.9	5.6	31 (49)	.14 (60)	3.19 (25)	64% (114)	10% (76)	0.96 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	51% (55)	38% (105)	17.9	30.9	209.2	6.8	11.7	20 (42)	12 (88)	.17 (110)	1.7 (25)	34% (114)	28% (97)	.28 (77)	7% (116)	2.2 (23)
ODU Defense	13	47% (51)	34% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (55)	.09 (9)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	25% (16)	.21 (33)	7% (34)	1.8 (12)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	44% (20)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (75)	.17 (39)	1.7 (120)	34% (29)	28% (43)	.23 (45)	6% (76)	2.1 (102)
ODU Offense	13	41% (121)	44% (44)	14.7	25.4	216	8.5	14.7	21 (22)	10 (119)	.41 (22)	1.8 (6)	28% (17)	35% (23)	.5 (11)	4% (19)	2.3 (3)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.83 #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52 #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.83 Old Dominion: 4.625

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -3.2 Old Dominion: 6.4

Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: 4.625 #76
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 7.09 #78
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 9.24 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 328.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Old Dominion's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 3.8
Old Dominion's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #48
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #41
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #52

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Old Dominion 31
Troy 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Troy 33
Old Dominion 26

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Old Dominion 29
Troy 19

Total Points: 48

Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.3
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5

Old Dominion's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/13	Old Dominion	33	Troy	0	Old Dominion -9.5	Old Dominion	53.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Old Dominion	1	1	0 Overs
Troy	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#93) TROY at (#76) ODU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	ODU
Power RatePwr	#93	#76
SP+SP+	#83	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#98	#40
OffenseOff	#96	#50
DefenseDef	#81	#24
Spec TeamsST	#67	#112
TalentTal	#100	#130
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#79

Troy Notes(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report

Old Dominion Notes(12/2) QB Colton Joseph will enter portal. Huge loss
(10/21) Killed by JMU, Def dogwalked, Rush Off tanked, 3 TO
(10/12) Def torched in awful L vs Marshall. Season derailer?
(10/7) Off is dropping big time #'s, Monarchs #1 SBC team?
(10/7) QB Colton Joseph is the best QB no one has heard of
(9/15) Joseph torched VT, great W for ODU, Off good
(9/7) LB Henderson retired. Big loss & blow to Def
(8/30) Run game good vs IU, Run Def torched 300+
(8/1) QB Joseph back, mobile. Good red zone runner
(8/1) WR/TE rebuild, little exp. Rahne like units though
(8/1) Def Avg LY, returns a ton. Added 8 DB portals
(8/1) Emerging team with upward trajectory this year
Old Dominion Injury Report

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ODU Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#24
SuccessSuc	#114	#40
ExplosiveExp	#39	#1
PPAPPA	#111	#8
PowerPwr	#111	#75
SP+SP+	#82	#52
Pts POPPO	#74	#20
HavocHav	#128	#17

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ODU Def
Run GameRun	#129	#44
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#101
Run ExplRExp	#114	#5
PPAExp	#117	#22
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#75
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#42
TackleTak	-	#111

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ODU Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#34
PPAExp	#110	#9
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#86
F7 HavocF7	#126	#15
DB HavocDB	#116	#34

Old Dominion on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	TROY Def
Perf GradePerf	#50	#81
SuccessSuc	#30	#53
ExplosiveExp	#41	#86
PPAPPA	#28	#54
PowerPwr	#78	#77
SP+SP+	#41	#81
Pts POPPO	#48	#31
HavocHav	#44	#55

Old Dominion Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#18	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#60
Run ExplRExp	#71	#63
PPAExp	#60	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#25	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#59
TackleTak	-	#113

Old Dominion Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#6	#120
PPAExp	#22	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#30	#75
F7 HavocF7	#76	#39
DB HavocDB	#19	#76

Program Comparison
ODU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Foreman Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 46°

Rematch from Week 12
Old Dominion -9.5 (53.5)
Old Dominion won vs Troy this year (33-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Kilcrease	130	222	59%	1537	9	6	6.9
Will Crowder	115	196	59%	1327	11	5	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tae Meadows	159	695	6	4.4	47
Jordan Lovett	89	339	2	3.8	22
Tucker Kilcrease	116	126	5	1.1	34
Jarris Williams	19	57	1	3.0	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)	39	629	5	16.1	75
Tray Taylor (Tr)	31	513	3	16.5	60
DJ Epps	46	498	5	10.8	48
Ethan Conner	31	397	3	12.8	39

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Stringer	123	12	3	1	4
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Justin Powe	75	1	0	0	1
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donnie Smith	44	14	11	7	2
Jah-Mal Williams	46	6	5	4	3
Jamel Fils-Aime	24	4	3	1	0
Elijah Davis (Tr)	44	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Kaleno Levine (Tr)	45	4	0	0	5

ODU's OC Kevin Decker (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Colton Joseph	173	288	60%	2619	21	10	9.1
Quinn Henicle	17	40	43%	184	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Colton Joseph	157	1011	13	6.4	78
Trequan Jones	105	792	6	7.5	93
Devin Roche	111	634	4	5.7	67
Ke'Travion Hargrove (Tr)	64	268	4	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre' Brown III	38	762	4	20.1	98
Ja'Cory Thomas	41	714	5	17.4	55
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding	51	667	6	13.1	46
Ke'Travion Hargrove (Tr)	6	192	2	32.0	80

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mario Easterly	80	2	0	3	4
Jerome Carter	76	3	0	2	2
Jeremy Mack Jr.	75	10	6	3	3
Jahleel Culbreath	71	10	3	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremy Mack Jr.	75	10	6	3	3
Jackson Forrest	52	7	5	1	0
Kris Trinidad	33	7	4	4	3
Javen Gibson	24	5	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Brandon Crutchfield	35	0	6
Zion Frink	60	1	6
Nickendre Stiger (Tr)	46	3	5