Troy at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Troy logo Troy Trojans at Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -7.5 (53.5) (-298)  Open: -10.0
Troy 48 - Texas State: 41  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Our Line: Texas State -10.5  (SP+ TXST -4)
Projected Score: TROY: 21 - TXST: 31 (52)
TXST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TROY Travel: 722 miles
Bobcats (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 31 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-16.546.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+31.051.5L 16 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4.551.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo+5.543.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama+2.546.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+7.553.5W 48 - 41OY
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-4.545.5W 37 - 14OY
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-7.047.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-7.552.5L 10 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion+9.553.5L 0 - 33UN
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-9.551.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss+6.550.5W 28 - 18UY
Fri 12/5 Troy at James Madison+24.547.5L 14 - 31UY
Tue 12/16 Troy vs Jacksonville State+3.047.5L 13 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-16.555.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#111 (.1)38% (114)23.539% (113)2.82 (91)9838% (105)2093.67 (74)#54 (.12)40% (53)23.941% (60)39% (42)3.17 (31)52.11.31.3
TXST#8 (.33)47% (24)36.146% (42)3.1 (40)22147% (19)2554.59 (14)#100 (.21)43% (85)30.643% (70)44% (98)4.1 (109)57.21.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1423.523.438.2%3.671.317307982092.847%51%39%38%20%.1
TXST Defense1230.628.342.9%4.10.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%44%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1423.925.940%3.171.3 - - - - - 54%44%41%39%16%.12
TXST Offense1236.13846.7%4.591.3234772212555.157%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1429:5517.339%47%5.652.11.31.36.12.6331
Texas State1229:0822.848%59%6.857.21.30.86.81.8226.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1447% (85)39% (113)35.1982.817 (88).02 (117)2.82 (91)78% (26)12% (126)0.87 (114)
TXST Defense1251% (91)43% (70) - - - - .12 (85)2.85 (60)71% (68)10% (61)1.05 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1454% (115)41% (60) - - - - .1 (67)3.01 (96)66% (32)11% (39)0.95 (63)
TXST Offense1257% (21)46% (42)43.1221.25.134 (4).27 (8)3.1 (40)66% (103)8% (34)1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1451% (55)38% (105)17.930.9209.26.811.720 (42)12 (88).17 (110)1.7 (25)34% (114)28% (97).28 (77)7% (116)2.2 (23)
TXST Defense1247% (54)44% (98) - - - - - - 8 (123).31 (95)1.6 (90)32% (58)35% (125).36 (102)5% (110)1.9 (31)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1444% (20)39% (42) - - - - - - 10 (75).17 (39)1.7 (120)34% (29)28% (43).23 (45)6% (76)2.1 (102)
TXST Offense1242% (115)47% (19)19.627.9255.49.21318 (86)7 (7).43 (16)1.6 (33)29% (32)39% (9).56 (8)4% (12)2 (70)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.83  #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52  #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.83   Texas State: 5.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -3.2   Texas State: 0.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 5.71  #53
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.24  #26
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.12  #85
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.3  #72
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 31
Troy 21


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 28
Troy 17

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 31
Troy 26

Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Texas State41Troy48Texas State -7.5Troy53.5Over
202410/03Troy17Texas State38Texas State -14.5Texas State56.0Under
202310/28Texas State13Troy31Troy -6.5Troy53.0Under
202210/15Troy17Texas State14Troy -16.5Texas State47.0Under
202110/16Texas State28Troy31Troy -7.5Texas State49.0Over
202010/10Troy37Texas State17Troy -7.0Troy59.0Under
201911/16Texas State27Troy63Troy -7Troy65.0Over
201811/17Troy12Texas State7Troy -23Texas State47.5Under
201711/24Troy62Texas State9Troy -23.5Troy53.5Over
201611/26Texas State7Troy40Troy -26.5Troy57.5Under
201311/29Troy42Texas State28Troy -4.5Troy0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State144 Overs
Troy1076 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 64 - 73 - 31 - 4
Road Teams6 - 57 - 44 - 13 - 3

(#93) TROY at (#53) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYTXST
Power RatePwr #93 #53
SP+SP+ #83 #72
Perf GradeGrade #98 #48
OffenseOff #96 #44
DefenseDef #81 #68
Spec TeamsST #67 #57
TalentTal #100 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Troy Notes
(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Troy on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #96 #68
SuccessSuc #114 #85
ExplosiveExp #39 #104
PPAPPA #111 #100
PowerPwr #111 #85
SP+SP+ #82 #123
Pts POPPO #74 #109
HavocHav #128 #94
Troy Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #129 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #70
Run ExplRExp #114 #109
PPAExp #117 #85
Run BlockR Blk #108 -
OL YdsOLY #91 #60
Stuff RateStuff #126 #15
TackleTak -  #121
Troy Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #76 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #98
Pass ExplPExl #25 #90
PPAExp #110 #95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #108 #25
F7 HavocF7 #126 #61
DB HavocDB #116 #110
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffTROY Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #81
SuccessSuc #24 #53
ExplosiveExp #17 #86
PPAPPA #8 #54
PowerPwr #26 #77
SP+SP+ #18 #81
Pts POPPO #14 #31
HavocHav #15 #55
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffTROY Def
Run GameRun #41 #70
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #60
Run ExplRExp #11 #63
PPAExp #8 #67
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #40 #96
Stuff RateStuff #40 #59
TackleTak -  #113
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffTROY Def
Pass GamePass #50 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #42
Pass ExplPExl #33 #120
PPAExp #16 #39
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #75
F7 HavocF7 #34 #39
DB HavocDB #12 #76
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Texas State -7.5 (53.5)
Troy won at Texas State this year (48-41)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Troy last year (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)
Troy beat Texas State in 2022 (17-14)

  
TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Kilcrease13022259%1537966.9
Will Crowder11519659%13271156.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows15969564.447
Jordan Lovett8933923.822
Tucker Kilcrease11612651.134
Jarris Williams195713.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)39629516.175
Tray Taylor (Tr)31513316.560
DJ Epps46498510.848
Ethan Conner31397312.839

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer12312314
Devin Lafayette1133105
Justin Powe751001
Jaquez White6741111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith44141172
Jah-Mal Williams466543
Jamel Fils-Aime244310
Elijah Davis (Tr)446320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaquez White6741111
Devin Lafayette1133105
Kaleno Levine (Tr)454005

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson23432871%30491879.3
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2001023115.162
Brad Jackson160692164.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)9159036.561
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks801113913.973
Chris Dawn Jr.54931217.282
Lincoln Pare3630528.532
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne967222
Ryan Nolan682022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)461020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4411440
Kenard Snyder (Tr)306320
Donterry Russell (Tr)175301
Treylin Payne967222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)234104
Amarion Atwood271023
Bobby Crosby593203