Troy at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Troy logo Troy Trojans at Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (23 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#55)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: Texas State -2   (SP+ TROY -1)
Projected Score: TROY: 29 - TXST: 31 (58)
TXST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TROY Travel: 722 miles
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-19
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+32.5
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+3.5
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama-1
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+2
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-8
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-5
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-9
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion-3.5
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss-2

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+8
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+22
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-4
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-2
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-10
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+4
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana+0.5
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss-1.5
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-12.5
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)2642% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)28.445% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)24.538% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense122622.744.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22
TXST Defense1324.522.138.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1228.434.343.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
TXST Offense1336.538.748%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -2.69 #71
Troy's Offense Rating: 12.96 #75
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.65 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 568.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #70
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #86
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #96
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -2.69   Texas State: -2.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.0   Texas State: -7.2




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.215 #68
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.59 #70
Texas State's Defense Rating: 15.82 #74
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74


Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.7
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 31
Troy 29

Projected Total Points: 58
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/03Troy17Texas State38Texas StateTexas State -14.5Texas State56.0Under
202310/28Texas State13Troy31TroyTroy -6.5Troy53.0Under
202210/15Troy17Texas State14TroyTroy -16.5Texas State47.0Under
202110/16Texas State28Troy31TroyTroy -7.5Texas State49.0Over
202010/10Troy37Texas State17TroyTroy -7.0Troy59.0Under
201911/16Texas State27Troy63TroyTroy -7Troy65.0Over
201811/17Troy12Texas State7TroyTroy -23Texas State47.5Under
201711/24Troy62Texas State9TroyTroy -23.5Troy53.5Over
201611/26Texas State7Troy40TroyTroy -26.5Troy57.5Under
201311/29Troy42Texas State28TroyTroy -4.5Troy0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State143 Overs
Troy966 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 54 - 63 - 21 - 4
Road Teams5 - 56 - 44 - 12 - 3

(#71) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.69 #71
Offense Rating: 12.96 #75
Defense Rating: 15.65 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #96
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81
Talent Rating: 568.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #70
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Troy Notes
(7/12) RB 3 portals, 2 FCS adds. Lots of ? all over
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, 3 portal adds. Bump?
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good
(3/24) 2nd year staff, could have big year w/ roster
Troy     Ratings Matchup     Texas State
Power #71
#68
Off #75
#70
Def #71
#74
Talent #89
#98
SP+ #86
#92
SP+ Off #96
#65
SP+ Def #81
#111

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Troy last year (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)
Troy beat Texas State in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | TXST
Depth Chart: TROY | TXST
Rosters: TROY | TXST
(#68) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.215 #68
Offense Rating: 13.59 #70
Defense Rating: 15.82 #74
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111
Talent Rating: 540.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Texas State Notes
(7/13) QB1? 4 guys will battle, Jackson & 3 portals
(6/11) RB Pare has 2K yds & 20 total TDs in his career
(5/23) New OC Keopple downgrade Leftwich (T Tech)
(3/24) RB Pare (#2 LY) looks good, Burrell (UNLV)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Dawn/Sparks exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 1 portal, some depth
(3/24) Def fell apart late LY, replacing most everyone
(3/24) Def portals 5 DL, 4 LB, 5 DBs. Will take time
(3/24) Kinne great HC, but has a ton to replace TY


  
Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Tucker Kilcrease274955%373317.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Tray Taylor (Tr)65809.726
Jordan Lovett175313.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Tray Taylor (Tr)18262114.659
Ethan Conner1211509.629
Jordan Lovett85607.026

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Devin Lafayette506031
Jah-Mal Williams291020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julian Peterson255310
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Steven Cattledge221110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Powe672104
Trent Henry212002
Devin Lafayette506031

Texas State's OC Landon Keopple
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nate Yarnell (Tr)9816759%10561056.3
Brad Jackson81553%118107.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Greg Burrell (Tr)6637035.642
Torrance Burgess Jr.6036726.157
Brad Jackson2317147.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360
Tiaquelin Mims (Tr)33393111.956
Beau Sparks25271210.824
Lincoln Pare12134011.222

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan521001
Kalil Alexander4011652
Jo'Laison Landry338540
DJ Jackson291001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Jermy Jackson Jr.21110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bobby Crosby181005
Trez Moore263024
Kalil Alexander4011652