Georgia State at Troy - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (4:00 PM EST)
Troy -9.5 (51.0) (-480) Open: -10.5 | 51.0
Troy 31 - Georgia State: 19 (Sun Belt)

Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (18 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Troy -16.5 (SP+ TROY -21)
Projected Score: GAST: 18 - TROY: 35 (53)
TROY Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
GAST Travel: 162 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia State at Ole Miss	+38.5	62.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia State vs Memphis	+14.5	57.5	L 16 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia State vs Murray State	-31.5	63.5	W 37 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/20	Georgia State at Vanderbilt	+27.5	53.5	L 21 - 70	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+19.5	52.5	L 7 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Georgia State vs App State	+3.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	+6.5	58.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/23	Georgia State vs South Alabama	+5.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+7.0	56.5	L 27 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/15	Georgia State vs Marshall	+9.5	59.5	L 18 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/22	Georgia State at Troy	+9.5	51.0	L 19 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+29.0	58.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Troy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Troy vs Nicholls	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Troy at Clemson	+31.0	51.5	L 16 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Troy vs Memphis	+4.5	51.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/20	Troy at Buffalo	+5.5	43.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Troy vs South Alabama	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Troy at Texas State	+7.5	53.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Troy at UL Monroe	-4.5	45.5	W 37 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Troy vs Louisiana	-7.0	47.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Troy vs Arkansas State	-7.5	52.5	L 10 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13	Troy at Old Dominion	+9.5	53.5	L 0 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/22	Troy vs Georgia State	-9.5	51.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Troy at Southern Miss	+6.5	50.5	W 28 - 18	U	Y
Fri 12/5	Troy at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Tue 12/16	Troy vs Jacksonville State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#88 (.14)	41% (90)	19.8	43% (74)	2.89 (78)	124	40% (88)	254	3.39 (100)	#126 (.27)	46% (122)	37.8	45% (104)	47% (122)	4.45 (128)	67.9	1.4	0.5
TROY	#111 (.1)	38% (114)	23.5	39% (113)	2.82 (91)	98	38% (105)	209	3.67 (74)	#54 (.12)	40% (53)	23.9	41% (60)	39% (42)	3.17 (31)	52.1	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)		42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)		49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	12	19.8	18	41%	3.39	1.4	20	378	124	254	4.1	43%	56%	43%	40%	16%	.14
TROY Defense	14	23.9	22.8	40%	3.17	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	41%	39%	16%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	12	37.8	45.3	45.5%	4.45	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	45%	47%	13%	.27
TROY Offense	14	23.5	25.3	38.2%	3.67	1.3	17	307	98	209	2.8	47%	51%	39%	38%	20%	.1

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	12	30:10	19.6	39%	44%	8.6	67.9	1.4	0.5	4.8	1.5	0	25.8
Troy	14	29:55	17.3	39%	47%	5.6	52.1	1.3	1.3	6.1	2.6	3	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	12	43% (119)	43% (74)	30.5	123.8	4.1	9 (122)	.06 (94)	2.89 (78)	63% (119)	9% (69)	0.87 (111)
TROY Defense	14	54% (115)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	.1 (67)	3.01 (96)	66% (32)	11% (39)	0.95 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	12	56% (128)	45% (104)	-	-	-	-	.18 (113)	3.17 (114)	77% (110)	8% (120)	0.97 (75)
TROY Offense	14	47% (85)	39% (113)	35.1	98	2.8	17 (88)	.02 (117)	2.82 (91)	78% (26)	12% (126)	0.87 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	12	56% (16)	40% (88)	24	39.6	254.4	6.4	10.6	22 (42)	11 (60)	.24 (71)	1.6 (58)	33% (107)	32% (50)	.32 (62)	7% (102)	2 (76)
TROY Defense	14	44% (20)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (75)	.17 (39)	1.7 (120)	34% (29)	28% (43)	.23 (45)	6% (76)	2.1 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	12	42% (8)	47% (122)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (123)	.43 (130)	1.6 (109)	28% (125)	37% (134)	.48 (131)	5% (104)	2 (73)
TROY Offense	14	51% (55)	38% (105)	17.9	30.9	209.2	6.8	11.7	20 (42)	12 (88)	.17 (110)	1.7 (25)	34% (114)	28% (97)	.28 (77)	7% (116)	2.2 (23)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -14.08 #126
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 4.33 #97
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.41 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.8 #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #117
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8 #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -14.08 Troy: -2.515

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -23.8 Troy: -3.2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -2.515 #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52 #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 35
Georgia State 18

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Troy 30
Georgia State 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Troy 33
Georgia State 21

Total Points: 54

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Troy	31	Georgia State	19	Troy -9.5	Troy	51.0	Under
2023	09/30	Georgia State	7	Troy	28	Georgia State -1	Troy	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Georgia State	37	Troy	10	Georgia State -6.5	Georgia State	49.5	Under
2020	10/24	Troy	34	Georgia State	36	Troy -1.5	Georgia State	68.5	Over
2019	10/26	Georgia State	52	Troy	33	Troy -1	Georgia State	67.0	Over
2018	10/04	Troy	37	Georgia State	20	Troy -17	Push	55.5	Over
2017	10/21	Georgia State	10	Troy	34	Troy -7	Troy	51.5	Under
2016	10/15	Troy	31	Georgia State	21	Troy -16.5	Georgia State	54.0	Under
2015	11/27	Georgia State	31	Troy	21	Georgia State -1	Georgia State	56.0	Under
2014	11/08	Troy	45	Georgia State	21	Troy -8.5	Troy	0
2013	10/12	Georgia State	28	Troy	35	Troy -16	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	7	4	3 Overs
Georgia State	4	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	6 - 4	4 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	4 - 6	1 - 2	3 - 4

(#126) GAST at (#93) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	TROY
Power RatePwr	#126	#93
SP+SP+	#133	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#128	#98
OffenseOff	#129	#96
DefenseDef	#114	#81
Spec TeamsST	#81	#67
TalentTal	#94	#100
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#65

Georgia State Notes(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report

Troy Notes(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Perf GradePerf	#129	#81
SuccessSuc	#90	#53
ExplosiveExp	#64	#86
PPAPPA	#88	#54
PowerPwr	#97	#77
SP+SP+	#117	#81
Pts POPPO	#100	#31
HavocHav	#79	#55

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#124	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#60
Run ExplRExp	#111	#63
PPAExp	#94	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#96	#59
TackleTak	-	#113

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#120
PPAExp	#71	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#130	#75
F7 HavocF7	#69	#39
DB HavocDB	#102	#76

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#114
SuccessSuc	#114	#122
ExplosiveExp	#39	#81
PPAPPA	#111	#126
PowerPwr	#111	#126
SP+SP+	#82	#134
Pts POPPO	#74	#128
HavocHav	#128	#121

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#129	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#104
Run ExplRExp	#114	#75
PPAExp	#117	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#114
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#126
TackleTak	-	#46

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#122
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#109
PPAExp	#110	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#108
F7 HavocF7	#126	#120
DB HavocDB	#116	#104

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 13
Troy -9.5 (51.0)
Troy won vs Georgia State this year (31-19)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Georgia State in 2023 (28-7)

GAST's OC Hue Jackson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley (Tr)	127	201	63%	1244	6	7	6.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)	119	184	65%	1259	13	1	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	97	543	2	5.6	92
Cameran Brown (Tr)	61	284	4	4.7	22
Rashad Amos (Tr)	63	267	2	4.2	29
Branson Robinson (Tr)	46	148	1	3.2	47

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst	71	1004	6	14.1	70
Javon Robinson (Tr)	58	599	4	10.3	46
Grant Hollier	21	288	4	13.7	52
Jordan Simmons	28	192	1	6.9	32

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Robinson	96	8	2	1	1
Jaylen Jones	66	5	0	0	1
Kedrick Walker	57	7	3	1	0
D-Icey Hopkins	51	3	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jartavius Flounoy	22	6	3	1	1
Kedrick Walker	57	7	3	1	0
Josiah Robinson	96	8	2	1	1
Richard Kramer (Tr)	13	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)	19	2	1	6
D-Icey Hopkins	51	3	1	5
Jordan Huff (Tr)	47	1	0	4

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Kilcrease	130	222	59%	1537	9	6	6.9
Will Crowder	115	196	59%	1327	11	5	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tae Meadows	159	695	6	4.4	47
Jordan Lovett	89	339	2	3.8	22
Tucker Kilcrease	116	126	5	1.1	34
Jarris Williams	19	57	1	3.0	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)	39	629	5	16.1	75
Tray Taylor (Tr)	31	513	3	16.5	60
DJ Epps	46	498	5	10.8	48
Ethan Conner	31	397	3	12.8	39

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Stringer	123	12	3	1	4
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Justin Powe	75	1	0	0	1
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donnie Smith	44	14	11	7	2
Jah-Mal Williams	46	6	5	4	3
Jamel Fils-Aime	24	4	3	1	0
Elijah Davis (Tr)	44	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Kaleno Levine (Tr)	45	4	0	0	5