Troy at UL Monroe - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Troy Trojans at UL Monroe Warhawks

UL Monroe logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
Troy -4.5 (45.5) (-205)  Open: -4.5
Troy 37 - UL Monroe: 14  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
TROY 2nd straight Road Game
ULM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Troy -8.5  (SP+ TROY -17)

Projected Score: TROY: 27 - ULM: 19 (46)
TROY Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
TROY Travel: 361 miles
Warhawks (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bryant Vincent (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (18 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Troy vs Nicholls-16.5W38–2046.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/6Troy at Clemson+31.0L16–2751.5L16–27UY
Sat 9/13Troy vs Memphis+4.5L7–2851.5L7–28UN
Sat 9/20Troy at Buffalo+5.5W21–1743.5W21–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Troy vs South Alabama+2.5W31–2446.5W31–24OY
Sat 10/11Troy at Texas State+7.5W48–4153.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/18Troy at UL Monroe-4.5W37–1445.5W37–14OY
Sat 10/25Troy vs Louisiana-7.0W35–2347.5W35–23OY
Sat 11/1Troy vs Arkansas State-7.5L10–2352.5L10–23UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/13Troy at Old Dominion+9.5L0–3353.5L0–33UN
Sat 11/22Troy vs Georgia State-9.5W31–1951.0W31–19UY
Sat 11/29Troy at Southern Miss+6.5W28–1850.5W28–18UY
Fri 12/5Troy at James Madison+24.5L14–3147.5L14–31UY
Tue 12/16Troy vs Jacksonville State+3.0L13–1747.5L13–17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
UL Monroe's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UL Monroe vs St. Francis (PA)-31.0W29–047.0W29–0UN
Sat 9/6UL Monroe at Alabama+34.0L0–7350.0L0–73ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UL Monroe at UTEP+5.5W31–2547.5W31–25OY
Sat 9/27UL Monroe vs Arkansas State-1.5W28–1655.5W28–16UY
Sat 10/4UL Monroe at Northwestern+12.5L7–4243.5L7–42ON
Sat 10/11UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina-3.0L8–2346.5L8–23UN
Sat 10/18UL Monroe vs Troy+4.5L14–3745.5L14–37ON
Sat 10/25UL Monroe at Southern Miss+14.0L21–4948.5L21–49ON
Sat 11/1UL Monroe vs Old Dominion+16.5L6–3155.5L6–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15UL Monroe vs South Alabama+4.0L14–2649.5L14–26UN
Sat 11/22UL Monroe at Texas State+20.5L14–3159.5L14–31UY
Sat 11/29UL Monroe at Louisiana+10.5L27–3047.5L27–30OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)23.542% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)23.945% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
ULM#94 (.15)37% (121)16.640% (102)2.93 (87)17333% (128)1353.33 (117)#89 (.2)47% (120)31.953% (134)39% (53)4.12 (99)43.31.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ULM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1223.523.444.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22
ULM Defense1231.92246.9%4.121.1 - - - - - 57%42%53%39%13%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1223.925.943.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
ULM Offense1216.618.237.4%3.331.3153081731354.662%37%40%33%15%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
UL Monroe1230:4615.333%67%5.943.31.31.14.21.5130.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)
ULM Defense1257% (127)53% (134) - - - - .24 (122)3.48 (129)89% (133)8% (117)0.89 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
ULM Offense1262% (6)40% (102)37.8172.84.617 (84).16 (54)2.93 (87)74% (64)10% (75)1.12 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)
ULM Defense1242% (6)39% (53) - - - - - - 6 (109).17 (38)1.5 (20)29% (110)30% (53).27 (50)5% (111)1.8 (17)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
ULM Offense1237% (128)33% (128)11.220.5134.86.612.111 (122)12 (85).14 (110)1.9 (8)34% (118)28% (106).27 (92)5% (26)2 (87)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.41  #85
Troy's Offense Rating: 7.69  #103
Troy's Defense Rating: 14.10  #72
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8  #87
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6  #95
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 571.38
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.41   UL Monroe: -14.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -4.8   UL Monroe: -21.6




UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -14.14  #108
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 5.64  #116
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 17.32  #96
2025 Talent Rating: 398.00  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
UL Monroe's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UL Monroe's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.6  #131
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #127
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 571.38
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 27
UL Monroe 19


Projected Total Points: 46
UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.2
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

UL Monroe's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18UL Monroe14Troy37Troy -4.5Troy45.5Over
202409/28Troy9UL Monroe13Troy -6UL Monroe46.0Under
202311/11UL Monroe14Troy45Troy -23.5Troy47.5Over
202211/19Troy34UL Monroe16Troy -15Troy48.5Over
202109/25UL Monroe29Troy16Troy -23.5UL Monroe49.5Under
201809/22UL Monroe27Troy35Troy -4.5Troy59.0Over
201511/07Troy51UL Monroe14Troy -5Troy52.0Over
201409/27UL Monroe22Troy20Louisiana Monroe -10.5Troy0
201310/31Troy37UL Monroe49Troy -3UL Monroe0
201110/15Troy10UL Monroe38
201010/30UL Monroe28Troy14
200910/31Troy42UL Monroe21
200811/01UL Monroe31Troy30
200709/29Troy24UL Monroe7
200610/14Troy24UL Monroe19
200510/15UL Monroe27Troy3
200311/22Troy28UL Monroe24
200111/10UL Monroe12Troy44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UL Monroe835 Overs
Troy1062 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 73 - 62 - 31 - 3
Road Teams7 - 116 - 33 - 13 - 2

(#85) TROY at (#108) ULM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYULM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #85 #108
SP+SP+ #87 #131
Perf GradeGrade #107 #93
OffenseOff #105 #71
DefenseDef #96 #70
Spec TeamsST #63 #99
TalentTal #100 #126
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #56
Troy Notes
(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report
UL Monroe Notes
(10/24) QB1 & QB2 Armenta & Herring doubtful vs So Miss
(10/12) Off has flushed, bad L @ C Car, 15 pts last 2 games
(10/9) Lost both kickers, holding search on campus
(9/21) Run Off better vs UTEP, QB Armenta still JAG-
(9/17) Offense is awful, no expl and can't protect QB
(9/17) Best Off weapon is small body RB McReynolds
(8/28) QB1 Armenta JAG- arm, has some mobility
(8/1) Can ULM get any QB play to help Run Off?
(8/1) RB McReynolds, P-Smith & watch for Fr D Ford
(8/1) Slow, run heavy Off (62%) to shorten, help D
(8/1) Secondary looks decent, Run Def awful again
(7/13) Smaller Def wore down LY, bigger in '25
UL Monroe Injury Report
Troy on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffULM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #105 #70
SuccessSuc #49 #120
ExplosiveExp #87 #6
PPAPPA #50 #89
PowerPwr #103 #96
SP+SP+ #95 #123
Pts POPPO #22 #99
HavocHav #75 #120
Troy Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffULM Def
Run GameRun #131 #56
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #134
Run ExplRExp #77 #26
PPAExp #82 #122
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #95 #129
Stuff RateStuff #93 #127
TackleTak -  #48
Troy Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffULM Def
Pass GamePass #88 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #53
Pass ExplPExl #81 #20
PPAExp #25 #38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #122 #65
F7 HavocF7 #89 #117
DB HavocDB #50 #111
UL Monroe on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatULM OffTROY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #71 #96
SuccessSuc #121 #87
ExplosiveExp #15 #50
PPAPPA #94 #77
PowerPwr #116 #72
SP+SP+ #127 #84
Pts POPPO #117 #65
HavocHav #48 #60
UL Monroe Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffTROY Def
Run GameRun #56 #83
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #87
Run ExplRExp #15 #36
PPAExp #54 #68
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #64
Stuff RateStuff #63 #80
TackleTak -  #101
UL Monroe Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatULM OffTROY Def
Pass GamePass #107 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #128 #76
Pass ExplPExl #8 #76
PPAExp #110 #79
Pass Block/RushP Blk #4 #90
F7 HavocF7 #75 #40
DB HavocDB #26 #91
Program Comparison
ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Malone Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Troy 4.5 (45.5)
Troy won at UL Monroe this year (37-14)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat UL Monroe last year (37-14)
UL Monroe beat Troy in 2024 (13-9)
Troy beat UL Monroe in 2023 (45-14)

  
TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Kilcrease13022259%1537966.9
Will Crowder11519659%13271156.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows15969564.447
Jordan Lovett8933923.822
Tucker Kilcrease11612651.134
Jarris Williams195713.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)39629516.175
Tray Taylor (Tr)31513316.560
DJ Epps46498510.848
Ethan Conner31397312.839

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer12312314
Devin Lafayette1133105
Justin Powe751001
Jaquez White6741111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith44141172
Jah-Mal Williams466543
Jamel Fils-Aime244310
Elijah Davis (Tr)446320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaquez White6741111
Kaleno Levine (Tr)454005
Devin Lafayette1133105

ULM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Armenta14725258%16191286.4
Landon Graves194048%185224.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachary Palmer-Smith11566045.756
Braylon McReynolds (Tr)12461435.074
Dorian Lewis2719507.272
Tyrell Reed Jr. (Tr)3513703.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Bibbs26383314.768
Nic Trujillo (Tr)23368416.052
JP Coulter21234011.139
Jacob Godfrey16191211.937

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Earnest Hill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Flemmings8010321
Jabari Tiller468301
Seidrion Langston363000
Marcus Ross (Tr)356220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
Dylan Howell195440
Noah Flemmings8010321
Kevontay Wells334340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
David Godsey Jr.260005
Jyren Ester193004