Louisiana at Troy - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 25th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Troy -7 (47.5) (-290) Open: -8.5
Troy 35 - Louisiana: 23 (Sun Belt)

Ragin' Cajuns (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (24 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

TROY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Troy -9 (SP+ TROY -5)
Projected Score: ULL: 20 - TROY: 29 (50)
TROY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ULL Travel: 377 miles

Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
ULL Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisiana's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Louisiana vs Rice	-14.5	49.5	L 12 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/6	Louisiana vs McNeese	-19.0	50.0	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Louisiana at Missouri	+27.5	47.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/20	Louisiana at Eastern Michigan	-2.5	51.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/27	Louisiana vs Marshall	+2.5	47.5	W 54 - 51	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Louisiana at James Madison	+18.5	44.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Louisiana vs Southern Miss	+4.5	54.5	L 10 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/25	Louisiana at Troy	+7.0	47.5	L 23 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/1	Louisiana at South Alabama	+3.5	52.5	W 31 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Louisiana vs Texas State	+3.5	62.5	W 42 - 39	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20	Louisiana at Arkansas State	+2.5	54.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Louisiana vs UL Monroe	-10.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	N
Wed 12/17	Louisiana vs Delaware	-1.5	60.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Louisiana's Schedule

Troy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Troy vs Nicholls	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Troy at Clemson	+31.0	51.5	L 16 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Troy vs Memphis	+4.5	51.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/20	Troy at Buffalo	+5.5	43.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Troy vs South Alabama	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Troy at Texas State	+7.5	53.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Troy at UL Monroe	-4.5	45.5	W 37 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Troy vs Louisiana	-7.0	47.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Troy vs Arkansas State	-7.5	52.5	L 10 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13	Troy at Old Dominion	+9.5	53.5	L 0 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/22	Troy vs Georgia State	-9.5	51.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Troy at Southern Miss	+6.5	50.5	W 28 - 18	U	Y
Fri 12/5	Troy at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Tue 12/16	Troy vs Jacksonville State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULL	#16 (.3)	45% (47)	26	42% (91)	3.24 (35)	159	47% (17)	242	4.27 (32)	#97 (.22)	48% (126)	29.2	53% (133)	44% (105)	4.43 (121)	44.5	0.6	1.4
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)	23.5	42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)	23.9	45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULL Offense	14	26	23.8	44.5%	4.27	0.6	20	401	159	242	5	53%	47%	42%	47%	11%	.3
TROY Defense	12	23.9	22.8	43.3%	3.77	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	45%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULL Defense	14	29.2	32.8	48.4%	4.43	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	53%	44%	13%	.22
TROY Offense	12	23.5	25.3	44.3%	4.43	1.3	20	370	157	213	4.4	54%	46%	42%	48%	16%	.22

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisiana	14	29:12	19.7	43%	64%	5.4	44.5	0.6	1.4	3.9	1.5	2	28.5
Troy	12	30:17	20.3	50%	47%	6.7	58.8	1.3	0.7	6.3	1.5	2	27

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULL Offense	14	53% (52)	42% (91)	31.6	158.9	5	26 (36)	.2 (33)	3.24 (35)	76% (44)	6% (6)	1.07 (31)
TROY Defense	12	53% (89)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.12 (68)	2.99 (64)	71% (52)	11% (40)	0.91 (36)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULL Defense	14	50% (61)	53% (133)	-	-	-	-	.24 (121)	3.36 (118)	82% (116)	7% (125)	0.87 (18)
TROY Offense	12	54% (43)	42% (94)	36.1	157.3	4.4	17 (84)	.11 (82)	2.88 (95)	76% (49)	11% (89)	0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULL Offense	14	47% (80)	47% (17)	18.4	27.5	241.9	8.8	13.1	22 (46)	7 (26)	.41 (10)	1.6 (50)	28% (17)	29% (97)	.39 (48)	5% (29)	2.3 (9)
TROY Defense	12	47% (48)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.25 (79)	1.6 (76)	29% (107)	30% (71)	.28 (58)	5% (91)	2 (47)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULL Defense	14	50% (77)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.21 (53)	1.4 (11)	28% (121)	34% (108)	.33 (84)	5% (97)	1.9 (33)
TROY Offense	12	46% (92)	48% (15)	17.8	28.3	213.1	7.5	12	21 (51)	9 (48)	.36 (25)	1.5 (81)	31% (64)	35% (32)	.41 (35)	5% (50)	1.9 (109)

Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: -13.69 #113
Louisiana's Offense Rating: 5.81 #114
Louisiana's Defense Rating: 19.50 #103
2025 Talent Rating: 568.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Louisiana's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Louisiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.1 #105
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #84
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #113

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: -13.69 Troy: -3.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: -10.1 Troy: -4.8

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -3.105 #84
Troy's Offense Rating: 7.69 #102
Troy's Defense Rating: 14.10 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8 #87
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #95
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Louisiana's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 29
Louisiana 20

Projected Total Points: 50

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Troy	35	Louisiana	23	Troy -7	Troy	47.5	Over
2024	11/23	Louisiana	51	Troy	30	Louisiana -7.5	Louisiana	51.5	Over
2023	11/18	Troy	31	Louisiana	24	Troy -17.5	Louisiana	47.5	Over
2022	11/05	Louisiana	17	Troy	23	Troy -3.5	Troy	42.5	Under
2021	11/13	Troy	21	Louisiana	35	Louisiana -6.5	Louisiana	48.0	Over
2019	11/23	Louisiana	53	Troy	3	Louisiana -13	Louisiana	74.5	Under
2018	11/03	Troy	26	Louisiana	16	Troy -7.5	Troy	64.5	Under
2015	12/05	Louisiana	17	Troy	41	Louisiana -2	Troy	57.0	Over
2014	11/29	Troy	23	Louisiana	42	Louisiana -9.5	Louisiana	59.5	Over
2013	11/07	Louisiana	41	Troy	36	Louisiana -13	Troy	0
2012	09/08	Troy	24	Louisiana	37
2011	10/08	Louisiana	31	Troy	17
2010	10/16	Troy	31	Louisiana	24
2009	11/28	Louisiana	31	Troy	48
2008	11/22	Troy	48	Louisiana	3
2007	09/22	Louisiana	31	Troy	48
2006	11/04	Troy	42	Louisiana	28
2005	10/29	Louisiana	31	Troy	28
2004	11/13	Louisiana	10	Troy	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	11	5	6 Overs
Louisiana	8	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 8	4 - 6	4 - 3	0 - 3
Road Teams	8 - 11	6 - 4	3 - 0	3 - 4

(#113) ULL at (#84) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULL	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#113	#84
SP+SP+	#105	#87
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#107
OffenseOff	#116	#105
DefenseDef	#102	#96
Spec TeamsST	#67	#63
TalentTal	#102	#100
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#65

Louisiana Notes(11/21) Was 2-6, won 3 straight to stay in bowl fight
(11/20) QB Lunch Winfield a find. Program changer?
(10/19) 1-4 run, can't Pass and teams know it. Killing Off
(9/20) Def allowed 400 yds to EMU? WTF the deal here?
(9/20) Pass Off bottom 10 in CFB, Def is awful.
(9/4) QB Daniel Beale (rFr) now starter this year
(9/4) QB Walker Howard likely out for the season
(9/4) 4 straight years starting QB has been injured
(8/30) Offense awful in bad L to Rice, Howard terrible
(8/28) Don't love HC Desormeaux so far
(8/19) QB1 Walker Howard named starter Aug 19th
(8/1) Off has great potential, but slow & methodical
Louisiana Injury Report

Troy Notes(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report

Louisiana on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ULL Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#96
SuccessSuc	#47	#87
ExplosiveExp	#25	#50
PPAPPA	#16	#77
PowerPwr	#114	#71
SP+SP+	#84	#84
Pts POPPO	#32	#65
HavocHav	#10	#60

Louisiana Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ULL Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#80	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	#91	#87
Run ExplRExp	#31	#36
PPAExp	#33	#68
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#50	#80
TackleTak	-	#101

Louisiana Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ULL Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#123	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#50	#76
PPAExp	#10	#79
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#90
F7 HavocF7	#6	#40
DB HavocDB	#29	#91

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ULL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#102
SuccessSuc	#49	#126
ExplosiveExp	#87	#7
PPAPPA	#50	#97
PowerPwr	#102	#103
SP+SP+	#95	#113
Pts POPPO	#22	#121
HavocHav	#75	#121

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ULL Def
Run GameRun	#131	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#94	#133
Run ExplRExp	#77	#18
PPAExp	#82	#121
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#118
Stuff RateStuff	#93	#107
TackleTak	-	#94

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ULL Def
Pass GamePass	#88	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#15	#105
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#11
PPAExp	#25	#53
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#106
F7 HavocF7	#89	#125
DB HavocDB	#50	#97

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

ULL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 9
Troy -7.0 (47.5)
Troy won vs Louisiana this year (35-23)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Louisiana last year (35-23)
Louisiana beat Troy in 2024 (51-30)
Troy beat Louisiana in 2023 (31-24)

ULL's OC Tim Leger (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D'Wayne' Winfield	127	216	59%	1555	11	7	7.2
Daniel Beale	42	84	50%	385	1	4	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bill Davis	158	763	6	4.8	76
Zylan Perry	138	689	8	5.0	84
D'Wayne' Winfield	152	667	9	4.4	42
Steven Blanco	30	156	2	5.2	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shelton Sampson Jr. (Tr)	32	537	6	16.8	45
Robert Williams	25	309	0	12.4	44
Charles Robertson	15	250	1	16.7	45
Caden Jensen	29	231	1	8.0	40

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC Jim Salgado (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Dugger	124	13	4	1	3
Terrence Williams	95	3	1	0	0
Brent Gordon Jr.	62	1	0	1	11
Tyree Skipper	55	1	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Lawson	52	15	5	9	1
Jaden Dugger	124	13	4	1	3
Jaelen Crider	25	4	3	1	1
Cameron Whitfield	30	2	1	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brent Gordon Jr.	62	1	0	1	11
Courtline Flowers	48	3	1	0	4
Jaden Dugger	124	13	4	1	3

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Kilcrease	130	222	59%	1537	9	6	6.9
Will Crowder	115	196	59%	1327	11	5	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tae Meadows	159	695	6	4.4	47
Jordan Lovett	89	339	2	3.8	22
Tucker Kilcrease	116	126	5	1.1	34
Jarris Williams	19	57	1	3.0	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)	39	629	5	16.1	75
Tray Taylor (Tr)	31	513	3	16.5	60
DJ Epps	46	498	5	10.8	48
Ethan Conner	31	397	3	12.8	39

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Stringer	123	12	3	1	4
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5
Justin Powe	75	1	0	0	1
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donnie Smith	44	14	11	7	2
Jah-Mal Williams	46	6	5	4	3
Jamel Fils-Aime	24	4	3	1	0
Elijah Davis (Tr)	44	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaquez White	67	4	1	1	11
Kaleno Levine (Tr)	45	4	0	0	5
Devin Lafayette	113	3	1	0	5