South Alabama at Troy - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -2.5 (46.5) (-125) Open: -3.0
Troy 31 - South Alabama: 24 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

USA 2nd straight Road Game
TROY coming off BYE
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Troy -9.5 (SP+ TROY -9)
Projected Score: USA: 20 - TROY: 29 (49)
USA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 145 miles

Trojans (8 - 5) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 25 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	South Alabama vs Morgan State	-28.5	51.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/6	South Alabama vs Tulane	+13.5	51.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/13	South Alabama at Auburn	+26.5	56.5	L 15 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/20	South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina	-14.5	51.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/27	South Alabama at North Texas	+13.5	63.5	L 22 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/4	South Alabama at Troy	-2.5	46.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-8.5	57.5	L 14 - 15	U	N
Thu 10/23	South Alabama at Georgia State	-5.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/1	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-3.5	52.5	L 22 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-4.0	49.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	+2.5	53.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/29	South Alabama at Texas State	+9.5	62.5	L 26 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Troy's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Troy vs Nicholls	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Troy at Clemson	+31.0	51.5	L 16 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Troy vs Memphis	+4.5	51.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/20	Troy at Buffalo	+5.5	43.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Troy vs South Alabama	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Troy at Texas State	+7.5	53.5	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Troy at UL Monroe	-4.5	45.5	W 37 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Troy vs Louisiana	-7.0	47.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Troy vs Arkansas State	-7.5	52.5	L 10 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13	Troy at Old Dominion	+9.5	53.5	L 0 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/22	Troy vs Georgia State	-9.5	51.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Troy at Southern Miss	+6.5	50.5	W 28 - 18	U	Y
Fri 12/5	Troy at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 14 - 31	U	Y
Tue 12/16	Troy vs Jacksonville State	-4.0	46.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#81 (.16)	42% (84)	26.5	43% (78)	3.03 (54)	201	40% (94)	181	4.01 (42)	#114 (.24)	43% (89)	30.4	47% (117)	40% (49)	4.35 (127)	54.9	1	1.3
TROY	#103 (.11)	39% (111)	24.3	39% (110)	2.84 (84)	99	39% (104)	215	3.81 (62)	#54 (.13)	41% (56)	24.5	42% (68)	39% (45)	3.2 (29)	54.9	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)		53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)		39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5
TROY	#50 (.22)	44% (49)		42% (94)	2.88 (95)	157	48% (15)	213	4.43 (22)	#77 (.18)	43% (87)		45% (87)	42% (76)	3.77 (65)	58.8	1.3	0.7

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	12	26.5	25.2	41.5%	4.01	1	21	382	201	181	4.6	60%	38%	43%	40%	13%	.16
TROY Defense	13	24.5	22.8	40.8%	3.2	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	42%	39%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	12	30.4	32	43.2%	4.35	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	47%	40%	15%	.24
TROY Offense	13	24.3	25.3	38.7%	3.81	1.2	17	314	99	215	2.8	47%	51%	39%	39%	20%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	12	31:08	20.6	43%	54%	6.5	54.9	1	1.3	4.7	1	0	28.6
Troy	13	29:57	17.5	40%	48%	5.8	54.9	1.2	1.3	6.1	2.4	3	30.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	12	60% (10)	43% (78)	44.3	201.2	4.6	30 (60)	.14 (59)	3.03 (54)	76% (40)	9% (53)	1.02 (55)
TROY Defense	13	54% (114)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	.12 (77)	3.02 (96)	64% (24)	11% (41)	0.96 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	12	54% (120)	47% (117)	-	-	-	-	.18 (110)	3.15 (108)	91% (136)	8% (106)	0.92 (52)
TROY Offense	13	47% (85)	39% (110)	35.4	98.8	2.8	17 (88)	.02 (114)	2.84 (84)	78% (28)	13% (126)	0.87 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	12	38% (126)	40% (94)	17.7	25.8	181.1	7	10.3	13 (86)	6 (34)	.23 (81)	1.5 (78)	31% (56)	27% (101)	.28 (76)	4% (19)	2.1 (34)
TROY Defense	13	45% (25)	39% (45)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (75)	.17 (37)	1.7 (117)	34% (32)	28% (54)	.23 (49)	6% (67)	2.1 (101)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	12	44% (18)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (100)	.34 (112)	1.8 (130)	33% (40)	29% (61)	.37 (107)	6% (60)	2.3 (129)
TROY Offense	13	51% (53)	39% (104)	18.2	31	215.4	7	11.9	20 (42)	10 (88)	.19 (100)	1.7 (22)	34% (108)	28% (94)	.31 (71)	7% (108)	2.2 (21)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -11.94 #119
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 5.24 #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 17.18 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9 #113
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #126

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.94 Troy: -2.515

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.9 Troy: -3.2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -2.515 #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52 #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 29
South Alabama 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Troy 28
South Alabama 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Troy 28
South Alabama 25

Total Points: 53

Troy Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Troy	31	South Alabama	24	South Alabama -2.5	Troy	46.5	Over
2024	10/15	South Alabama	25	Troy	9	South Alabama -10	South Alabama	53.0	Under
2023	11/02	Troy	28	South Alabama	10	Troy -5.5	Troy	44.5	Under
2022	10/20	South Alabama	6	Troy	10	South Alabama -3	Troy	47.0	Under
2021	11/06	Troy	31	South Alabama	24	Troy -3.5	Troy	47.5	Over
2020	12/05	South Alabama	0	Troy	29	Troy -4.5	Troy	53.5	Under
2019	10/16	Troy	37	South Alabama	13	Troy -17.5	Troy	55.5	Under
2018	10/23	South Alabama	17	Troy	38	Troy -11	Troy	52.5	Over
2017	10/11	Troy	8	South Alabama	19	Troy -18	South Alabama	51.5	Under
2016	10/20	South Alabama	21	Troy	28	Troy -9	South Alabama	49.0	Push
2015	10/03	Troy	18	South Alabama	24	Troy -3	South Alabama	61.5	Under
2014	10/24	South Alabama	27	Troy	13	South Alabama -12	South Alabama	0
2013	10/05	Troy	34	South Alabama	33	Troy -2.5	South Alabama	0
2012	09/29	South Alabama	10	Troy	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	10	7	3 Overs
South Alabama	4	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 7	7 - 6	5 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 7	6 - 7	2 - 2	4 - 5

(#119) USA at (#93) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	TROY
Power RatePwr	#119	#93
SP+SP+	#113	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#101	#98
OffenseOff	#88	#96
DefenseDef	#96	#81
Spec TeamsST	#61	#67
TalentTal	#103	#100
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#65

South Alabama Notes(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report

Troy Notes(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	TROY Def
Perf GradePerf	#88	#81
SuccessSuc	#84	#56
ExplosiveExp	#93	#85
PPAPPA	#81	#54
PowerPwr	#89	#77
SP+SP+	#80	#81
Pts POPPO	#42	#29
HavocHav	#31	#51

South Alabama Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#10	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#68
Run ExplRExp	#55	#72
PPAExp	#59	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#58
TackleTak	-	#113

South Alabama Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat	USA Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#45
Pass ExplPExl	#78	#117
PPAExp	#81	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#75
F7 HavocF7	#53	#41
DB HavocDB	#19	#67

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	USA Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#96
SuccessSuc	#111	#89
ExplosiveExp	#36	#74
PPAPPA	#103	#114
PowerPwr	#111	#119
SP+SP+	#82	#126
Pts POPPO	#62	#127
HavocHav	#128	#89

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#129	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#110	#117
Run ExplRExp	#112	#52
PPAExp	#114	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#84	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#119	#101
TackleTak	-	#129

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#22	#130
PPAExp	#100	#112
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#130
F7 HavocF7	#126	#106
DB HavocDB	#108	#60

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
South Alabama 2.5 (46.5)
Troy won vs South Alabama this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Troy last year (25-9)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2023 (28-10)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2022 (10-6)

USA's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bishop Davenport	200	294	68%	2072	12	6	7.0
Jared Hollins	12	16	75%	101	1	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kentrel Bullock	218	1085	14	5.0	64
Keenan Phillips	126	622	3	4.9	54
Bishop Davenport	116	326	9	2.8	56
PJ Martin	60	326	2	5.4	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Voisin	67	775	4	11.6	65
Jeremy Scott	24	417	4	17.4	74
Anthony Eager	40	339	1	8.5	48
Miller McCrumby (Tr)	15	128	0	8.5	32

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	84	6	0	3	3
Christopher Wallace Jr.	73	4	0	0	0
Darius McKenzie	71	4	1	1	1
Tirrell Johnson Jr.	54	6	1	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Nathan Jennings	13	2	2	0
Tyler Thomas	16	3	2	2
Emmanuel Waller (Tr)	14	3	1	2
Achilles Woods	12	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)	31	3	13
Ty Goodwill	35	5	7
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)	27	2	5

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Kilcrease	118	199	59%	1421	9	4	7.1
Will Crowder	112	190	59%	1314	11	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tae Meadows	159	695	6	4.4	47
Jordan Lovett	81	317	2	3.9	22
Tucker Kilcrease	104	112	5	1.1	34
Jarris Williams	19	57	1	3.0	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)	34	577	5	17.0	75
Tray Taylor (Tr)	31	513	3	16.5	60
DJ Epps	44	480	5	10.9	48
Ethan Conner	29	381	3	13.1	39

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Stringer	107	11	2	1	4
Devin Lafayette	104	3	1	0	4
Jaquez White	65	4	1	1	11
Justin Powe	65	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donnie Smith	43	13	10	7	2
Jah-Mal Williams	41	5	4	4	3
Jamel Fils-Aime	23	4	3	1	0
Elijah Davis (Tr)	40	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaquez White	65	4	1	1	11
Kaleno Levine (Tr)	41	3	0	0	5
Jordan Stringer	107	11	2	1	4