South Alabama at Troy - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Veterans Memorial Stadium - Troy, AL  (Sun Belt)

 
Jaguars (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (15 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
USA 2nd straight Road Game
TROY coming off BYE
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Troy -1   (SP+ USA -4.5)

Projected Score: USA: 24 - TROY: 25 (48)
TROY Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
USA Travel: 145 miles
Trojans (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 20 - 25 (23 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.551.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+13.551.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+26.556.5L 15 - 31UY
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.550.5
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas+13
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-12.5
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-12.5
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-12
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss-2
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-16.546.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+31.051.5L 16 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4.551.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo+6.042.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama-1
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+8
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-10.5
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-5.5
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-11
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion+9
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-16
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#64 (.22)44% (61)2844% (69)3.29 (37)17444% (64)1924.3 (52)#109 (.23)47% (117)28.351% (122)41% (76)5.38 (130)31.71.71.7
TROY#101 (.1)38% (110)20.342% (84)3.09 (60)13033% (116)1463.09 (115)#57 (.11)42% (82)2544% (94)40% (67)5.08 (123)72.31.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)53% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)39% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense3281544.2%4.31.7213661741924.264%36%44%44%13%.22
TROY Defense3252442%5.081.3 - - - - - 53%47%44%40%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense328.33146.9%5.381.7 - - - - - 60%40%51%41%16%.23
TROY Offense320.322.537.5%3.091.3172761301463.949%51%42%33%16%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama327:4620.736%60%531.71.71.75.71.7029.7
Troy328:571742%50%7.372.31.31.362.7126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense364% (9)44% (69)41.3174.34.25 (62).13 (71)3.29 (37)78% (41)10% (93)0.91 (85)
TROY Defense353% (96)44% (94) - - - - .04 (62)3.33 (125)77% (98)11% (48)0.81 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense360% (122)51% (122) - - - - .21 (111)3.12 (105)94% (125)10% (61)0.92 (68)
TROY Offense349% (80)42% (84)331303.92 (109).12 (75)3.09 (60)77% (45)8% (63)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense336% (127)44% (64)1621.7191.78.9126 (34)1 (23).37 (53)1.7 (23)26% (32)30% (81).28 (83)3% (31)2.1 (54)
TROY Defense347% (44)40% (67) - - - - - - 2 (56).18 (58)1.6 (85)30% (105)27% (53).17 (49)5% (85)2.2 (99)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense340% (15)41% (76) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (88)1.4 (39)30% (92)32% (90).27 (70)6% (66)1.7 (38)
TROY Offense351% (57)33% (116)1529146.35.19.84 (72)4 (121).08 (119)1.6 (56)36% (121)24% (113).26 (86)8% (128)2.2 (40)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -7.76 #101
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -7.76   Troy: -4.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.3   Troy: -7.7




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -4.7 #97
Troy's Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Troy's Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 25
South Alabama 24


Total Points: 48

Troy Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.5
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/15South Alabama25Troy9South AlabamaSouth Alabama -10South Alabama53.0Under
202311/02Troy28South Alabama10TroyTroy -5.5Troy44.5Under
202210/20South Alabama6Troy10TroySouth Alabama -3Troy47.0Under
202111/06Troy31South Alabama24TroyTroy -3.5Troy47.5Over
202012/05South Alabama0Troy29TroyTroy -4.5Troy53.5Under
201910/16Troy37South Alabama13TroyTroy -17.5Troy55.5Under
201810/23South Alabama17Troy38TroyTroy -11Troy52.5Over
201710/11Troy8South Alabama19South AlabamaTroy -18South Alabama51.5Under
201610/20South Alabama21Troy28TroyTroy -9South Alabama49.0Push
201510/03Troy18South Alabama24South AlabamaTroy -3South Alabama61.5Under
201410/24South Alabama27Troy13South AlabamaSouth Alabama -12South Alabama0
201310/05Troy34South Alabama33TroyTroy -2.5South Alabama0
201209/29South Alabama10Troy31Troy
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy962 Overs
South Alabama467 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 76 - 65 - 41 - 2
Road Teams7 - 66 - 62 - 14 - 5

(#101) South Alabama Info
Power Rating: -7.76 #101
Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

South Alabama has lost 4 straight
South Alabama has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

South Alabama Notes
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Running more of a balanced, pro style offense
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot

South Alabama Highlights
South Alabama does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#26)

South Alabama defense does not give up big plays (#28)

South Alabama Deficiencies
South Alabama has a bad TO Margin (#107)
South Alabama Fumbles a Lot (#128)
South Alabama has a bad defense (#117)
South Alabama has a bad defensive line (#105)
South Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTROYUSA
OverallOver#85#82
OffenseOff#79#72
DefenseDef#85#90
Special TeamsST#84#61
PassingPass#92#69
RushingRush#66#32
Run BlockRBLK#44#97
Pass BlockPBLK#48#105
Route RunningWR Rt#93#33
TacklingTkl#96#117
Run DefenseR Def#90#104
Pass Rush DefPRush#77#89
Coverage DefCov#71#48

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Troy last year (25-9)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2023 (28-10)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2022 (10-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | TROY
Depth Chart: USA | TROY
Rosters: USA | TROY
(#97) Troy Info
Power Rating: -4.7 #97
Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Bad Run Success 42%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.08 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Troy has lost 3 straight
Troy has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Troy Notes
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
(7/12) Finished 3-1, fought hard after 1-7 start
(7/12) RB 3 portals, 2 FCS adds. Lots of ? all over
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good

Troy Highlights

Troy Deficiencies
Troy has a really bad Offense
Troy Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
Troy throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Troy offense is really bad (#110)
Troy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#115)
Troy pass game is really bad (#116)
Troy Does Not Stuff Runs (#110)
Troy has a bad defensive line (#125)
Troy has a bad red zone defense (#123)


  
South Alabama's OC Paul Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport476473%567618.9
Jared Hollins11100%8008.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock6329134.620
PJ Martin228814.016
Bishop Davenport227913.616
Keenan Phillips155803.912
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin19266414.065
Anthony Eager1211519.634
Jeremy Scott574114.834
Miller McCrumby (Tr)561012.232

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Dozier (Tr)200000
Darius McKenzie190000
Christopher Wallace Jr.173000
Wesley Miller170001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathan Jennings22200
Tirrell Johnson Jr.114100
Dominic Wiseman31100
E'Mauri Smiley51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Goodwill142005
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)70003
Wesley Miller170001

Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Crowder355860%374436.4
Tucker Kilcrease102935%65012.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows4426916.147
Jordan Lovett208304.215
Will Crowder175313.116
DJ Epps21206.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tray Taylor (Tr)597219.444
Roman Mothershed109019.027
Ethan Conner773110.424
Rara Thomas (Tr)54709.419

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer262100
Devin Lafayette231102
Jaquez White180002
Taleeq Robbins (Tr)121101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith93220
Luis Medina62200
Jah-Mal Williams72210
Devin Lafayette231102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Lafayette231102
Jaquez White180002
Taleeq Robbins (Tr)121101