South Alabama at Troy - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Veterans Memorial Stadium - Troy, AL  (Sun Belt)

 
Jaguars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 4.4 (#40)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
USA 2nd straight Road Game
TROY coming off BYE
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Troy -1   (SP+ USA -2.5)
Projected Score: USA: 27 - TROY: 28 (57)
TROY Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
USA Travel: 145 miles
Trojans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#55)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-20.5
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+4
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+22.5
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-11
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas-2.5
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-11
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-11.5
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-9.5
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss-8.5
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-19
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+32.5
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+3.5
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama-1
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+2
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-8
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-5
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-9
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion-3.5
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss-2

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)34.453% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)25.239% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)2642% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)28.445% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense1334.425.549.8%4.660.9224421992435.851%49%53%47%14%.34
TROY Defense1228.422.543.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense1325.222.840.9%3.661.5 - - - - - 48%52%39%43%16%.15
TROY Offense122629.344.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama1329:2021.539%68%8.270.80.91.55.61.6429.3
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense1351% (67)53% (4)34.1199.25.832 (14).33 (3)3.57 (6)82% (12)10% (79)1.06 (40)
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense1348% (38)39% (28) - - - - .09 (53)2.78 (32)71% (51)10% (78)1.05 (98)
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense1349% (68)47% (18)19.530243.28.112.521 (51)6 (10).36 (27)1.5 (101)29% (27)33% (49).48 (15)4% (14)2.2 (14)
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense1352% (98)43% (96) - - - - - - 16 (10).24 (73)1.5 (32)32% (69)30% (55).15 (8)6% (59)1.7 (5)
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -2.23 #68
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 16.39 #49
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 18.62 #94
2025 Talent Rating: 534.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #76
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #74
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -2.23   Troy: -1.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.4   Troy: -6.0




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -1.845 #71
Troy's Offense Rating: 12.96 #75
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.65 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 568.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #86
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #96
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 28
South Alabama 27

Projected Total Points: 57
Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/15South Alabama25Troy9South AlabamaSouth Alabama -10South Alabama53.0Under
202311/02Troy28South Alabama10TroyTroy -5.5Troy44.5Under
202210/20South Alabama6Troy10TroySouth Alabama -3Troy47.0Under
202111/06Troy31South Alabama24TroyTroy -3.5Troy47.5Over
202012/05South Alabama0Troy29TroyTroy -4.5Troy53.5Under
201910/16Troy37South Alabama13TroyTroy -17.5Troy55.5Under
201810/23South Alabama17Troy38TroyTroy -11Troy52.5Over
201710/11Troy8South Alabama19South AlabamaTroy -18South Alabama51.5Under
201610/20South Alabama21Troy28TroyTroy -9South Alabama49.0Push
201510/03Troy18South Alabama24South AlabamaTroy -3South Alabama61.5Under
201410/24South Alabama27Troy13South AlabamaSouth Alabama -12South Alabama0
201310/05Troy34South Alabama33TroyTroy -2.5South Alabama0
201209/29South Alabama10Troy31Troy
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy962 Overs
South Alabama467 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 76 - 65 - 41 - 2
Road Teams7 - 66 - 62 - 14 - 5

(#68) South Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.23 #68
Offense Rating: 16.39 #49
Defense Rating: 18.62 #94
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #76
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #74
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81
Talent Rating: 534.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


South Alabama Notes
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(7/12) Decimated by portal, net loss of talent
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 4 portals. Looks good
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama     Ratings Matchup     Troy
Power #68
#71
Off #49
#75
Def #94
#71
Talent #100
#89
SP+ #76
#86
SP+ Off #74
#96
SP+ Def #81
#81

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Troy last year (25-9)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2023 (28-10)
Troy beat South Alabama in 2022 (10-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | TROY
Depth Chart: USA | TROY
Rosters: USA | TROY
(#71) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.845 #71
Offense Rating: 12.96 #75
Defense Rating: 15.65 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #96
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81
Talent Rating: 568.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #70
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Troy Notes
(7/12) RB 3 portals, 2 FCS adds. Lots of ? all over
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, 3 portal adds. Bump?
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good
(3/24) 2nd year staff, could have big year w/ roster


  
South Alabama's OC Paul Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport487961%604317.6
Zach Pyron (Tr)356554%409236.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock15283275.559
Bishop Davenport3716114.450
Zach Pyron (Tr)3611543.220
PJ Martin139817.545
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin34407012.028
Kentrel Bullock15153110.228
Anthony Eager10133213.338
Miller McCrumby (Tr)117907.213

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick1018232
Darius McKenzie724104
Wesley Miller592004
Ed Smith IV234230
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Thomas194300
Parker Shattuck113301
Blayne Myrick1018232
Ed Smith IV234230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Miller592004
Darius McKenzie724104
Blayne Myrick1018232

Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Tucker Kilcrease274955%373317.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Tray Taylor (Tr)65809.726
Jordan Lovett175313.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Tray Taylor (Tr)18262114.659
Ethan Conner1211509.629
Jordan Lovett85607.026

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Devin Lafayette506031
Jah-Mal Williams291020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julian Peterson255310
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Steven Cattledge221110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Powe672104
Trent Henry212002
Devin Lafayette506031