Texas State at Marshall - 2025 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Marshall Thundering Herd

Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas State -3 (65.5) (-155) Open: -5.5
Marshall 40 - Texas State: 37 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

MRSH 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Texas State -6.5 (SP+ TXST -7)
Projected Score: TXST: 35 - MRSH: 29 (64)
TXST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 1062 miles, 1 hrs behind

Thundering Herd (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Gibson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
MRSH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas State vs Eastern Michigan	-14.0	58.5	W 52 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Texas State at UTSA	+4.5	64.5	W 43 - 36	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Texas State at Arizona State	+18.5	61.5	L 15 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/20	Texas State vs Nicholls	-32.5	57.0	W 35 - 3	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas State at Arkansas State	-14.0	63.5	L 30 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/11	Texas State vs Troy	-7.5	53.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	Texas State at Marshall	-3.0	65.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	Texas State vs James Madison	+7.5	55.5	L 20 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/8	Texas State at Louisiana	-3.5	62.5	L 39 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/15	Texas State at Southern Miss	+3.0	65.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-20.5	59.5	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/29	Texas State vs South Alabama	-9.5	62.5	W 49 - 26	O	Y
Fri 1/2	Texas State vs Rice	-19.5	55.5	W 41 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Marshall's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Marshall at Georgia	+39.5	55.5	L 7 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Marshall vs Missouri State	-7.0	53.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/13	Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky	-14.5	49.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Marshall at Middle Tennessee	-2.5	46.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Marshall at Louisiana	-2.5	47.5	L 51 - 54	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Marshall vs Old Dominion	+14.5	57.5	W 48 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Marshall vs Texas State	+3.0	65.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30	Marshall at Coastal Carolina	-7.5	55.5	L 27 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/8	Marshall vs James Madison	+13.5	53.5	L 23 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Marshall at Georgia State	-9.5	59.5	W 30 - 18	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Marshall at App State	-3.5	57.5	L 24 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/29	Marshall vs Georgia Southern	-10.5	61.5	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Marshall's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)	36.5	49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)	29	38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
MRSH	#60 (.21)	43% (66)	30.8	45% (47)	3.35 (18)	203	40% (88)	181	3.93 (66)	#47 (.13)	40% (46)	30.3	43% (75)	37% (21)	3.87 (79)	42.5	0.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MRSH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	34.2	48%	3.89	1.6	24	438	194	245	5.2	52%	47%	49%	48%	13%	.25
MRSH Defense	13	30.3	24.7	40%	3.87	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	43%	37%	19%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	29	32.8	38.6%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	38%	39%	19%	.14
MRSH Offense	13	30.8	31.3	42.9%	3.93	0.7	20	384	203	181	5.2	59%	41%	45%	40%	13%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	28:17	24.1	45%	64%	6.1	56.5	1.6	1.2	6.9	2.4	2	31
Marshall	13	28:39	19.8	40%	59%	5.4	42.5	0.7	1.5	6.6	2.6	2	31.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	52% (59)	49% (14)	37.1	193.7	5.2	25 (41)	.16 (49)	3.41 (11)	75% (53)	8% (35)	0.88 (110)
MRSH Defense	13	53% (99)	43% (75)	-	-	-	-	.17 (93)	2.95 (57)	70% (50)	12% (30)	1.11 (118)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	51% (72)	38% (21)	-	-	-	-	.12 (67)	2.97 (60)	68% (34)	14% (7)	1.13 (123)
MRSH Offense	13	59% (12)	45% (47)	38.8	202.5	5.2	21 (59)	.22 (27)	3.35 (18)	76% (49)	8% (32)	1.06 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	47% (86)	48% (10)	20.9	30.2	244.7	8.1	11.7	30 (9)	13 (103)	.4 (13)	1.5 (91)	29% (31)	34% (41)	.32 (74)	5% (44)	1.7 (131)
MRSH Defense	13	46% (37)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.13 (23)	1.6 (58)	34% (37)	26% (14)	.24 (40)	7% (25)	2.2 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	48% (56)	39% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.19 (45)	1.6 (62)	35% (23)	29% (44)	.3 (65)	5% (106)	2.2 (110)
MRSH Offense	13	41% (123)	40% (88)	14.9	25.6	181.1	7.1	12.1	27 (20)	4 (1)	.23 (82)	1.7 (36)	30% (36)	30% (84)	.25 (98)	5% (52)	2 (76)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.50 #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.50 Marshall: -6.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3 Marshall: -4.5

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -6.735 #115
Marshall's Offense Rating: 6.50 #113
Marshall's Defense Rating: 20.47 #112
2025 Talent Rating: 608.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Marshall's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Marshall's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #86
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #52
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 35
Marshall 29

Projected Total Points: 64

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Marshall's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Marshall	40	Texas State	37	Texas State -3	Marshall	65.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Marshall	1	1	1 Overs
Texas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#74) TXST at (#115) MRSH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	MRSH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#74	#115
SP+SP+	#65	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#65
OffenseOff	#35	#72
DefenseDef	#49	#52
Spec TeamsST	#73	#103
TalentTal	#89	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#65

Texas State Notes(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report

Marshall Notes(10/19) Avg 44 PPG in last 5, won last 2 as underdogs
(10/12) Off scorching hot, killed ODU, pass/run 220+
(9/21) Killed M Tenn, QB Del Rio-Wilson good/efficient
(8/30) Turner/Long/Rio-Wilson all played vs UGA
(8/26) QB1 Del Rio-Wilson, J. Long, Z. Turner listed OR
(8/1) Year 0 for Gibson & staff, 62 new players
(8/1) WR added 11 portals! Scattered not great
(8/1) Def complete rebuild. 30 portal adds (of 59!)
(8/1) HC Huff pushed out, opted out of bowl
(8/1) New OC Smith was RichRod's OC @ Jax St
(3/22) 3/4 of roster is new, along with staff
(3/22) QB Rio-Wilson(SU), Turner(JS), Shockey(NC St)
Marshall Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	MRSH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#35	#52
SuccessSuc	#17	#46
ExplosiveExp	#115	#86
PPAPPA	#25	#47
PowerPwr	#59	#112
SP+SP+	#15	#118
Pts POPPO	#72	#79
HavocHav	#29	#19

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	MRSH Def
Run GameRun	#17	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#14	#75
Run ExplRExp	#110	#118
PPAExp	#49	#93
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#57
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#49
TackleTak	-	#28

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	MRSH Def
Pass GamePass	#42	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#58
PPAExp	#13	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#25	#86
F7 HavocF7	#35	#30
DB HavocDB	#44	#25

Marshall on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#49
SuccessSuc	#66	#31
ExplosiveExp	#64	#107
PPAPPA	#60	#50
PowerPwr	#113	#95
SP+SP+	#52	#117
Pts POPPO	#66	#33
HavocHav	#32	#26

Marshall Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#89	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#21
Run ExplRExp	#39	#123
PPAExp	#27	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#90	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#42	#31
TackleTak	-	#118

Marshall Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#62
PPAExp	#82	#45
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#8
F7 HavocF7	#32	#7
DB HavocDB	#52	#106

Program Comparison
MRSH 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Texas State 3.0 (65.5)
Marshall won vs Texas State this year (40-37)

Previous Matchups
Marshall beat Texas State last year (40-37)

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)	1	3	33%	14	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lincoln Pare	211	1129	12	5.4	63
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell (Tr)	100	671	3	6.7	61
Jaylen Jenkins	31	170	2	5.5	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Lincoln Pare	37	311	2	8.4	32
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Treylin Payne	101	7	2	3	2
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Bobby Crosby	59	3	2	0	3
Ayden Jones (Tr)	52	1	0	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	48	12	5	5	0
Donterry Russell (Tr)	18	6	4	0	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	35	9	3	2	0
Treylin Payne	101	7	2	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Rios (Tr)	24	4	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	0	2	3
Bobby Crosby	59	3	2	0	3

MRSH's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)	171	256	67%	2043	17	5	8.0
Zion Turner (Tr)	40	59	68%	409	1	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Tr)	159	658	6	4.1	24
Antwan Roberts	90	512	4	5.7	54
Michael Allen (Tr)	77	385	4	5.0	68
Joshon Barbie	56	249	5	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demarcus Lacey (Tr)	65	769	5	11.8	68
De'Andre Tamarez (Tr)	32	395	2	12.3	44
Toby Payne	36	387	3	10.8	48
Adrian Norton (Tr)	28	383	5	13.7	41

View Marshall's Full Roster

MRSH's DC Shannon Morrison (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boogie Trotter	73	3	1	3	5
Kerion Martin (Tr)	67	6	2	7	1
Cameron Smith (Tr)	66	5	2	3	8
Javae Gilmore (Tr)	56	10	2	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braydin Ward	18	6	5	4	2
Paul Hutson III (Tr)	37	6	3	3	0
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)	51	6	3	4	2
Jamaal Whyce (Tr)	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Smith (Tr)	66	5	2	3	8
Boogie Trotter	73	3	1	3	5
Daytione Smith	50	2	0	0	4