Texas State at UTSA Game Matchup

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Alamodome - San Antonio, TX

Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

Our Line: UTSA -8 (SP+ UTSA -7)
Projected Score: TXST: 27 - UTSA: 35 (62)
UTSA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
TXST Travel: 47 miles

Roadrunners (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (43 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#26)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
UTSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Texas State vs Eastern Michigan	-14.0	0.0
Sat 9/6	Texas State at UTSA	+8
Sat 9/13	Texas State at Arizona State	+22
Sat 9/20	Texas State vs Nicholls	-19
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas State at Arkansas State	-4
Sat 10/11	Texas State vs Troy	-2
Sat 10/18	Texas State at Marshall	-10
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	Texas State vs James Madison	+4
Sat 11/8	Texas State at Louisiana	+0.5
Sat 11/15	Texas State at Southern Miss	-1.5
Sat 11/22	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-13
Sat 11/29	Texas State vs South Alabama	-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

UTSA's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	UTSA at Texas A&M	+21.0	0.0
Sat 9/6	UTSA vs Texas State	-8
Sat 9/13	UTSA vs Incarnate Word	-24
Sat 9/20	UTSA at Colorado State	-8
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UTSA at Temple	-16.5
Sat 10/11	UTSA vs Rice	-19.5
Sat 10/18	UTSA at North Texas	-6
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30	UTSA vs Tulane	+0.5
Thu 11/6	UTSA at South Florida	+2.5
Sat 11/15	UTSA at Charlotte	-18.5
Sat 11/22	UTSA vs East Carolina	-10.5
Fri 11/28	UTSA vs Army	-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)	36.5	49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)	24.5	38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
UTSA	#61 (.2)	40% (100)	33.2	37% (123)	3.03 (70)	169	43% (61)	283	3.63 (94)	#42 (.13)	34% (2)	30.1	32% (1)	36% (16)	3.78 (66)	81.1	1.7	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	33.8	48%	3.89	1.6	24	438	194	245	5.2	52%	47%	49%	48%	13%	.25
UTSA Defense	13	30.1	21.7	34.3%	3.78	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	32%	36%	22%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	24.5	24	38.6%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	38%	39%	19%	.14
UTSA Offense	13	33.2	42.6	40.1%	3.63	1.7	22	452	169	283	4.5	46%	54%	37%	43%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	28:17	24.1	45%	64%	6.1	56.5	1.6	1.2	6.9	2.4	2	31
UTSA	13	31:10	21.5	41%	36%	8.7	81.1	1.7	1.6	8.2	3.2	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	52% (59)	49% (14)	37.1	193.7	5.2	25 (41)	.16 (49)	3.41 (11)	75% (53)	8% (35)	0.88 (110)
UTSA Defense	13	46% (24)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (5)	2.12 (1)	63% (16)	15% (4)	1.2 (129)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	51% (72)	38% (21)	-	-	-	-	.12 (67)	2.97 (60)	68% (34)	14% (7)	1.13 (123)
UTSA Offense	13	46% (97)	37% (123)	37.7	169	4.5	21 (59)	.1 (88)	3.03 (70)	60% (125)	10% (65)	1.09 (25)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	47% (86)	48% (10)	20.9	30.2	244.7	8.1	11.7	30 (9)	13 (103)	.4 (13)	1.5 (91)	29% (31)	34% (41)	.32 (74)	5% (44)	1.7 (131)
UTSA Defense	13	53% (112)	36% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.27 (83)	1.9 (134)	36% (13)	27% (22)	.39 (103)	7% (29)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	48% (56)	39% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.19 (45)	1.6 (62)	35% (23)	29% (44)	.3 (65)	5% (106)	2.2 (110)
UTSA Offense	13	54% (37)	43% (61)	24.4	39.2	283.5	7.2	11.6	27 (20)	13 (103)	.29 (52)	1.5 (82)	34% (115)	30% (90)	.34 (67)	6% (81)	2 (73)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.23 #70
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.59 #71
Texas State's Defense Rating: 15.82 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.23 UTSA: 3.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -7.2 UTSA: 0.0

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 3.055 #64
UTSA's Offense Rating: 15.85 #56
UTSA's Defense Rating: 14.74 #67
2025 Talent Rating: 632.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
UTSA's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
UTSA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #22
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UTSA 35
Texas State 27

Projected Total Points: 62

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.6
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.7

UTSA's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Texas State	49	UTSA	10	Texas State	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	58.5	Over
2023	09/09	UTSA	20	Texas State	13	UTSA	UT San Antonio -13.5	Texas State	66.5	Under
2020	09/12	Texas State	48	UTSA	51	UTSA	Texas State -6.0	UTSA	56.5	Over
2018	09/22	UTSA	25	Texas State	21	UTSA	UT San Antonio -7	Texas State	49.0	Under
2017	09/23	Texas State	14	UTSA	44	UTSA	UT San Antonio -13.5	UTSA	45.0	Over
2012	11/24	UTSA	38	Texas State	31	UTSA

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	5	2	3 Overs
Texas State	1	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 2	1 - 4	1 - 3	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 4	4 - 1	1 - 0	3 - 1

(#70) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.23 #70
Offense Rating: 13.59 #71
Defense Rating: 15.82 #76
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111
Talent Rating: 554.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Texas State Notes
(5/23) New OC Keopple downgrade Leftwich (T Tech)
(3/24) QB McCoy (Oreg St) likely, Yarnell (Pitt) #2
(3/24) RB Pare (#2 LY) looks good, Burrell (UNLV)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Dawn/Sparks exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 1 portal, some depth
(3/24) Def fell apart late LY, replacing most everyone
(3/24) Def portals 5 DL, 4 LB, 5 DBs. Will take time
(3/24) Kinne great HC, but has a ton to replace TY

Texas State Ratings Matchup UTSA

Power #70

#64

Off #71

#56

Def #76

#67

Talent #92

#81

SP+ #92

#63

SP+ Off #65

#22

SP+ Def #111

#107

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | UTSA
Depth Chart: TXST | UTSA
Rosters: TXST | UTSA

(#64) UTSA Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.055 #64
Offense Rating: 15.85 #56
Defense Rating: 14.74 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 632.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 34%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

UTSA Notes
(5/11) Most exp'd returning OL in CFB
(5/2) WR stacked, 5 of top 6 back. Depth/Options
(4/29) FCS WR AJ Wilson avg'd 28.4 ypc @ Hou Chr LY
(3/24) QB McCown a great one w/ wheels
(3/24) RB High returns (#2 LY), depth must develop
(3/24) OL 5/5 back, but bad LY. 3 portal adds. Jump?
(3/24) Def bad LY, 6 portal adds.
(3/24) HC Taylor fewer wins each year since '21

Texas State's OC Landon Keopple

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nate Yarnell (Tr)	98	167	59%	1056	10	5	6.3
Brad Jackson	8	15	53%	118	1	0	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Greg Burrell (Tr)	66	370	3	5.6	42
Torrance Burgess Jr.	60	367	2	6.1	57
Brad Jackson	23	171	4	7.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60
Tiaquelin Mims (Tr)	33	393	1	11.9	56
Beau Sparks	25	271	2	10.8	24
Lincoln Pare	12	134	0	11.2	22

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
DJ Jackson	29	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Jermy Jackson Jr.	2	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Trez Moore	26	3	0	2	4
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2

UTSA's OC Justin Burke

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Owen McCown	294	467	63%	3424	25	10	7.3
David Amador	1	1	100%	27	0	0	27.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Henry	130	706	7	5.4	88
Owen McCown	86	340	3	4.0	75
Bryson Donnell	35	172	0	4.9	19
Will Henderson III	14	94	1	6.7	51

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Willie McCoy	28	536	4	19.1	66
Houston Thomas	34	470	3	13.8	44
Devin Mccuin	45	424	5	9.4	54
David Amador	31	376	1	12.1	51

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Owen Pewee	42	7	2	0	2
Jer'Marius Lewis	28	1	0	0	2
KK Meier (Tr)	27	1	0	0	3
Vic Shaw	21	4	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vic Shaw	21	4	3	2	1
Owen Pewee	42	7	2	0	2
Camron Cooper	12	2	2	1	0
Davin Martin	12	1	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyan Milton	18	2	1	1	5
KK Meier (Tr)	27	1	0	0	3
Owen Pewee	42	7	2	0	2