Texas State at UTSA - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UTSA -4.5 (64.5) (-190) Open: -4.5 | 66.5
Texas State 43 - UTSA: 36

Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Game in Dome
Our Line: UTSA -4 (SP+ UTSA -1)
Projected Score: TXST: 32 - UTSA: 36 (68)
UTSA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 47 miles

Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (46 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
UTSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas State vs Eastern Michigan	-14.0	58.5	W 52 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Texas State at UTSA	+4.5	64.5	W 43 - 36	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Texas State at Arizona State	+18.5	61.5	L 15 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/20	Texas State vs Nicholls	-32.5	57.0	W 35 - 3	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas State at Arkansas State	-14.0	63.5	L 30 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/11	Texas State vs Troy	-7.5	53.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	Texas State at Marshall	-3.0	65.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	Texas State vs James Madison	+7.5	55.5	L 20 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/8	Texas State at Louisiana	-3.5	62.5	L 39 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/15	Texas State at Southern Miss	+3.0	65.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-20.5	59.5	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/29	Texas State vs South Alabama	-9.5	62.5	W 49 - 26	O	Y
Fri 1/2	Texas State vs Rice	-19.5	55.5	W 41 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

UTSA's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UTSA at Texas A&M	+21.5	56.5	L 24 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UTSA vs Texas State	-4.5	64.5	L 36 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/13	UTSA vs Incarnate Word	-21.0	62.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/20	UTSA at Colorado State	-4.5	58.5	W 17 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UTSA at Temple	-6.5	58.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	UTSA vs Rice	-8.5	48.5	W 61 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/18	UTSA at North Texas	+4.0	64.5	L 17 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30	UTSA vs Tulane	+5.5	54.5	W 48 - 26	O	Y
Thu 11/6	UTSA at South Florida	+14.0	66.5	L 23 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/15	UTSA at Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/22	UTSA vs East Carolina	+2.0	62.5	W 58 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/29	UTSA vs Army	-8.5	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Fri 12/26	UTSA vs Florida International	-7.0	62.5	W 57 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#7 (.33)	46% (24)	36.5	46% (43)	3.13 (35)	223	47% (25)	251	4.42 (21)	#76 (.18)	41% (61)	29	40% (48)	43% (87)	3.98 (98)	59.5	1.3	0.9
UTSA	#31 (.23)	45% (35)	35.5	45% (47)	2.81 (94)	174	47% (21)	247	4.23 (27)	#82 (.18)	40% (46)	28.8	40% (44)	40% (49)	4.2 (115)	68.7	0.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2
UTSA	#61 (.2)	40% (100)		37% (123)	3.03 (70)	169	43% (61)	283	3.63 (94)	#42 (.13)	34% (2)		32% (1)	36% (16)	3.78 (66)	81.1	1.7	1.6

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	34.2	46.3%	4.42	1.3	23	474	223	251	5.2	56%	42%	46%	47%	12%	.33
UTSA Defense	13	28.8	25.5	39.6%	4.2	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	40%	40%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	29	32.8	41.2%	3.98	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	40%	43%	16%	.18
UTSA Offense	13	35.5	45.8	45.5%	4.23	0.9	22	421	174	247	5.1	46%	52%	45%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:10	22.9	46%	60%	6.9	59.5	1.3	0.9	7.2	1.9	2	27.4
UTSA	13	31:51	21.8	40%	46%	7.3	68.7	0.9	1.4	5.9	1.8	2	31.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	56% (22)	46% (43)	42.9	222.7	5.2	36 (4)	.28 (7)	3.13 (35)	67% (102)	9% (42)	1.15 (10)
UTSA Defense	13	50% (65)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.12 (85)	2.86 (62)	64% (20)	11% (20)	0.97 (73)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	52% (101)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	.08 (58)	2.67 (25)	70% (58)	11% (25)	1.06 (110)
UTSA Offense	13	46% (100)	45% (47)	34.2	174.1	5.1	21 (49)	.19 (35)	2.81 (94)	73% (61)	10% (102)	1.17 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	42% (115)	47% (25)	19.5	27.8	250.8	9	12.9	21 (86)	7 (7)	.42 (17)	1.6 (31)	29% (29)	38% (9)	.54 (6)	4% (10)	2 (71)
UTSA Defense	13	49% (77)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.29 (85)	1.8 (131)	35% (18)	28% (47)	.3 (69)	7% (19)	2.2 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	46% (44)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (123)	.3 (89)	1.6 (97)	33% (42)	32% (98)	.28 (64)	5% (114)	1.9 (30)
UTSA Offense	13	52% (37)	47% (21)	22.9	34.4	247.2	7.2	10.8	34 (33)	7 (34)	.33 (43)	1.5 (96)	30% (47)	36% (21)	.45 (21)	6% (56)	2.2 (15)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.50 #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04 #94
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.50 UTSA: 3.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3 UTSA: 3.7

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 3.735 #70
UTSA's Offense Rating: 17.45 #40
UTSA's Defense Rating: 18.68 #97
2025 Talent Rating: 648.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
UTSA's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
UTSA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #62
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UTSA 36
Texas State 32

Total Points: 68

Based on Last 4 Games
UTSA 40
Texas State 37

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
UTSA 36
Texas State 31

Total Points: 67

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.5

UTSA's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	UTSA	36	Texas State	43	UTSA -4.5	Texas State	64.5	Over
2024	09/07	Texas State	49	UTSA	10	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	58.5	Over
2023	09/09	UTSA	20	Texas State	13	UT San Antonio -13.5	Texas State	66.5	Under
2020	09/12	Texas State	48	UTSA	51	Texas State -6.0	UTSA	56.5	Over
2018	09/22	UTSA	25	Texas State	21	UT San Antonio -7	Texas State	49.0	Under
2017	09/23	Texas State	14	UTSA	44	UT San Antonio -13.5	UTSA	45.0	Over
2012	11/24	UTSA	38	Texas State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	5	2	4 Overs
Texas State	2	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	1 - 5	1 - 4	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	5 - 1	1 - 0	4 - 1

(#73) TXST at (#70) UTSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	UTSA
Net PPPPPP	#55	#59
Power RatePwr	#73	#70
SP+SP+	#65	#62
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#98
OffenseOff	#35	#69
DefenseDef	#49	#107
Spec TeamsST	#73	#113
TalentTal	#89	#85
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#46

Texas State Notes(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report

UTSA Notes(11/29) Wild season ends w/ loss to Army. 6-6 feels meh
(11/22) Killed ECU to get bowl eligible. Odd year 4 Meeps
(10/31) McCown was 31/33 for 370, 4 TD in Tulane rout
(10/5) Def is poor & Off isn't enough, danger of bowl miss
(9/24) Off good, RB Henry great, Def is really bad
(9/24) QB McCown & Pass Def awful vs CSU, lucky W
(7/28) Offense should be lethal, up to Def portals/dev
(7/20) RB Emery Jr (5*, LSU) fun add if healthy
(7/6) WR good/deep, 4/6 back. TE Thomas a weapon
(7/6) Proj #1 WR Clark will not play in 2025, NFL
(7/4) Def bad LY, 12 portal adds, 3 DL & 6 DBs
(6/25) Sched opp no Mem/Navy, Tul/Army/ECU home
UTSA Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
PPPOffPPP	#24	#9
Perf GradePerf	#35	#107
SuccessSuc	#24	#46
ExplosiveExp	#16	#126
PPAPPA	#7	#82
PowerPwr	#59	#97
SP+SP+	#15	#91
Pts POPPO	#21	#115
HavocHav	#15	#18

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	#17	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#44
Run ExplRExp	#10	#73
PPAExp	#7	#85
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#75
TackleTak	-	#104

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	#42	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#131
PPAExp	#17	#85
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#25	#74
F7 HavocF7	#42	#20
DB HavocDB	#10	#19

UTSA on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	#97	#123
Perf GradePerf	#69	#49
SuccessSuc	#35	#61
ExplosiveExp	#23	#109
PPAPPA	#31	#76
PowerPwr	#40	#94
SP+SP+	#27	#117
Pts POPPO	#27	#98
HavocHav	#80	#67

UTSA Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#56	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#48
Run ExplRExp	#6	#110
PPAExp	#35	#58
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#94	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#10
TackleTak	-	#118

UTSA Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#48	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#97
PPAExp	#43	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#8
F7 HavocF7	#102	#25
DB HavocDB	#56	#114

Program Comparison
UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 93° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 2
UTSA -4.5 (64.5)
Texas State won at UTSA this year (43-36)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)	1	3	33%	14	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lincoln Pare	211	1129	12	5.4	63
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell (Tr)	100	671	3	6.7	61
Jaylen Jenkins	31	170	2	5.5	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Lincoln Pare	37	311	2	8.4	32
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Treylin Payne	101	7	2	3	2
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Bobby Crosby	59	3	2	0	3
Ayden Jones (Tr)	52	1	0	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	48	12	5	5	0
Donterry Russell (Tr)	18	6	4	0	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	35	9	3	2	0
Treylin Payne	101	7	2	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Rios (Tr)	24	4	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	0	2	3
Bobby Crosby	59	3	2	0	3

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Owen McCown	276	409	68%	2990	30	7	7.3
Brandon Tennison	20	34	59%	199	2	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Henry	151	1045	9	6.9	76
Will Henderson III	125	866	6	6.9	59
A'Marion Peterson (Tr)	49	177	3	3.6	14
Bryson Donnell	20	84	1	4.2	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mccuin	65	726	8	11.2	52
AJ Wilson (Tr)	30	523	4	17.4	77
David Amador	45	443	4	9.8	45
Houston Thomas	34	347	2	10.2	32

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shadrach Banks	93	8	2	2	2
Jimmy Wyrick	62	1	0	0	8
Tyan Milton	51	3	0	1	3
Kendrick Blackshire	44	1	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nnanna Anyanwu	21	7	5	4	1
Kenny Ozowalu	16	6	3	3	1
Chidera Otutu	28	3	3	0	0
Jonathan Jones	15	8	3	2	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jimmy Wyrick	62	1	8
KK Meier (Tr)	25	0	5
Jer'Marius Lewis	25	2	4