Texas State at UTSA - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at UTSA RoadrunnersUTSA logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UTSA -4.5 (64.5) (-190)  Open: -4.5 | 66.5
Texas State 43 - UTSA: 36

 
Bobcats (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 31 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Game in Dome
Our Line: Texas State -1  (SP+ UTSA -1)

Projected Score: TXST: 35 - UTSA: 34 (68)
UTSA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 47 miles
Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (45 - 20)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (46 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-17.555.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
UTSA's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTSA at Texas A&M+21.556.5L 24 - 42OY
Sat 9/6 UTSA vs Texas State-4.564.5L 36 - 43ON
Sat 9/13 UTSA vs Incarnate Word-21.062.5W 48 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 UTSA at Colorado State-4.558.5W 17 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UTSA at Temple-6.558.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UTSA vs Rice-8.548.5W 61 - 13OY
Sat 10/18 UTSA at North Texas+4.064.5L 17 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 UTSA vs Tulane+5.554.5W 48 - 26OY
Thu 11/6 UTSA at South Florida+14.066.5L 23 - 55ON
Sat 11/15 UTSA at Charlotte-16.557.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 UTSA vs East Carolina+2.062.5W 58 - 24OY
Sat 11/29 UTSA vs Army-8.550.5L 24 - 27ON
Fri 12/26 UTSA vs Florida International-7.062.5W 57 - 20OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#8 (.33)47% (24)36.146% (42)3.1 (40)22147% (19)2554.59 (14)#100 (.21)43% (85)30.643% (70)44% (98)4.1 (109)57.21.30.8
UTSA#33 (.23)45% (35)35.545% (49)2.81 (97)16047% (23)2254.23 (29)#82 (.18)40% (46)28.840% (44)40% (49)4.09 (108)58.50.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
UTSA#61 (.2)40% (100)37% (123)3.03 (70)16943% (61)2833.63 (94)#42 (.13)34% (2)32% (1)36% (16)3.78 (66)81.11.71.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1236.134.246.7%4.591.3234772212555.157%42%46%47%12%.33
UTSA Defense1328.825.539.6%4.091.2 - - - - - 50%49%40%40%19%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1230.632.842.9%4.10.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%44%15%.21
UTSA Offense1335.545.845.4%4.230.9203841602255.146%52%45%47%16%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1229:0822.848%59%6.857.21.30.86.81.8226.6
UTSA1329:2819.840%42%6.558.50.91.25.31.6231.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1257% (21)46% (42)43.1221.25.134 (4).27 (8)3.1 (40)66% (103)8% (34)1.14 (11)
UTSA Defense1350% (66)40% (44) - - - - .12 (83)2.86 (62)64% (21)11% (24)0.97 (72)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1251% (91)43% (70) - - - - .12 (85)2.85 (60)71% (68)10% (61)1.05 (109)
UTSA Offense1346% (102)45% (49)31.1159.85.117 (49).19 (36)2.81 (97)73% (63)10% (102)1.17 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1242% (115)47% (19)19.627.9255.49.21318 (86)7 (7).43 (16)1.6 (33)29% (32)39% (9).56 (8)4% (12)2 (70)
UTSA Defense1349% (78)40% (49) - - - - - - 9 (75).29 (87)1.8 (131)35% (18)28% (49).3 (70)7% (20)2.2 (122)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1247% (54)44% (98) - - - - - - 8 (123).31 (95)1.6 (90)32% (58)35% (125).36 (102)5% (110)1.9 (31)
UTSA Offense1352% (38)47% (23)21.532224.5710.431 (33)7 (34).33 (42)1.5 (95)30% (46)36% (20).45 (20)6% (59)2.2 (12)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.12  #53
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.24  #26
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.12  #85
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.3  #72
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 6.12   UTSA: 2.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 0.3   UTSA: 1.6




UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 2.165  #78
UTSA's Offense Rating: 12.57  #49
UTSA's Defense Rating: 14.84  #110
2025 Talent Rating: 648.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
UTSA's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
UTSA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6  #65
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #39
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.0  #95

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 35
UTSA 34


Total Points: 68

Based on Last 4 Games
UTSA 40
Texas State 38

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
UTSA 36
Texas State 31

Total Points: 67
UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.5

UTSA's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06UTSA36Texas State43UTSA -4.5Texas State64.5Over
202409/07Texas State49UTSA10Texas State -2.5Texas State58.5Over
202309/09UTSA20Texas State13UT San Antonio -13.5Texas State66.5Under
202009/12Texas State48UTSA51Texas State -6.0UTSA56.5Over
201809/22UTSA25Texas State21UT San Antonio -7Texas State49.0Under
201709/23Texas State14UTSA44UT San Antonio -13.5UTSA45.0Over
201211/24UTSA38Texas State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UTSA524 Overs
Texas State242 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 31 - 51 - 40 - 1
Road Teams3 - 45 - 11 - 04 - 1

(#53) TXST at (#78) UTSA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTUTSA
Power RatePwr #53 #78
SP+SP+ #72 #65
Perf GradeGrade #48 #105
OffenseOff #44 #70
DefenseDef #68 #120
Spec TeamsST #57 #121
TalentTal #89 #85
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #46
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
UTSA Notes
(11/29) Wild season ends w/ loss to Army. 6-6 feels meh
(11/22) Killed ECU to get bowl eligible. Odd year 4 Meeps
(10/31) McCown was 31/33 for 370, 4 TD in Tulane rout
(10/5) Def is poor & Off isn't enough, danger of bowl miss
(9/24) Off good, RB Henry great, Def is really bad
(9/24) QB McCown & Pass Def awful vs CSU, lucky W
(7/28) Offense should be lethal, up to Def portals/dev
(7/20) RB Emery Jr (5*, LSU) fun add if healthy
(7/6) WR good/deep, 4/6 back. TE Thomas a weapon
(7/6) Proj #1 WR Clark will not play in 2025, NFL
(7/4) Def bad LY, 12 portal adds, 3 DL & 6 DBs
(6/25) Sched opp no Mem/Navy, Tul/Army/ECU home
UTSA Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUTSA Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #120
SuccessSuc #24 #46
ExplosiveExp #17 #126
PPAPPA #8 #82
PowerPwr #26 #110
SP+SP+ #18 #95
Pts POPPO #14 #108
HavocHav #15 #18
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUTSA Def
Run GameRun #41 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #44
Run ExplRExp #11 #72
PPAExp #8 #83
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #40 #62
Stuff RateStuff #40 #77
TackleTak -  #117
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUTSA Def
Pass GamePass #50 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #49
Pass ExplPExl #33 #131
PPAExp #16 #87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #36 #75
F7 HavocF7 #34 #24
DB HavocDB #12 #20
UTSA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatUTSA OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #70 #68
SuccessSuc #35 #85
ExplosiveExp #24 #104
PPAPPA #33 #100
PowerPwr #49 #85
SP+SP+ #39 #123
Pts POPPO #29 #109
HavocHav #79 #94
UTSA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #51 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #49 #70
Run ExplRExp #6 #109
PPAExp #36 #85
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLY #97 #60
Stuff RateStuff #107 #15
TackleTak -  #121
UTSA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatUTSA OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #54 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #23 #98
Pass ExplPExl #95 #90
PPAExp #42 #95
Pass Block/RushP Blk #112 #25
F7 HavocF7 #102 #61
DB HavocDB #59 #110
Program Comparison
UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 93° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 2
UTSA -4.5 (64.5)
Texas State won at UTSA this year (43-36)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson23432871%30491879.3
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2001023115.162
Brad Jackson160692164.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)9159036.561
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks801113913.973
Chris Dawn Jr.54931217.282
Lincoln Pare3630528.532
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne967222
Ryan Nolan682022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)461020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4411440
Kenard Snyder (Tr)306320
Donterry Russell (Tr)175301
Treylin Payne967222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)234104
Amarion Atwood271023
Bobby Crosby593203

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown27640968%29903077.3
Brandon Tennison203459%199205.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Robert Henry151104596.976
Will Henderson III12586666.959
A'Marion Peterson (Tr)4917733.614
Bryson Donnell208414.228
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mccuin65726811.252
AJ Wilson (Tr)30523417.477
David Amador4544349.845
Houston Thomas34347210.232

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shadrach Banks938222
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Tyan Milton513013
Kendrick Blackshire441101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nnanna Anyanwu217541
Kenny Ozowalu166331
Chidera Otutu283300
Jonathan Jones158324
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Wyrick621008
KK Meier (Tr)250005
Jakevian Rodgers232004