Rice at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Rice logo   Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Friday, January 2nd 2026 (1:00 PM EST)
Texas State -19.5 (55.5) (-900)  Open: -10.5 | 59.5
Texas State 41 - Rice: 10  (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

 
Owls (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (14 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 7.9 (#85)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 7)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas State -16  (SP+ TXST -17)

Projected Score: RICE: 20 - TXST: 36 (57)
TXST Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
RICE Travel: 237 miles
Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Rice at Louisiana+14.549.5W 14 - 12UY
Sat 9/6 Rice vs Houston+13.538.5L 9 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.548.5W 38 - 17ON
Thu 9/18 Rice at Charlotte-1.541.5W 28 - 17OY
Sat 9/27 Rice at Navy+14.045.5L 13 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Rice vs Florida Atlantic-4.554.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Rice at UTSA+8.548.5L 13 - 61ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Rice vs UConn+10.548.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 10/31 Rice vs Memphis+13.548.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Rice vs UAB+1.551.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Rice vs North Texas+18.557.0L 24 - 56ON
Sat 11/29 Rice at South Florida+28.557.5L 3 - 52UN
Fri 1/2 Rice vs Texas State+19.555.5L 10 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Rice's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-19.555.5W 41 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)19.136% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)32.940% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)2938% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
RICE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
RICE Offense1219.114.235.5%3.271.8183541152394.637%62%36%35%20%.05
TXST Defense132928.338.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
RICE Defense1232.932.637%3.721 - - - - - 55%45%40%34%17%.16
TXST Offense1336.53848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Rice1228:4018.335%35%7.157.41.816.32.7232.6
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
RICE Offense1237% (132)36% (127)24.8114.54.614 (98)-.03 (126)2.7 (118)86% (3)10% (63)1 (55)
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
RICE Defense1255% (112)40% (37) - - - - .16 (85)3.06 (80)76% (83)11% (45)1.07 (103)
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
RICE Offense1262% (4)35% (121)24.339.823969.817 (79)13 (103).11 (121)1.5 (97)38% (129)25% (119).17 (119)10% (133)1.9 (104)
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
RICE Defense1245% (24)34% (4) - - - - - - 8 (93).16 (33)1.7 (109)34% (30)24% (4).19 (23)6% (70)2.1 (81)
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -17.27  #126
Rice's Offense Rating: 2.31  #128
Rice's Defense Rating: 19.58  #105
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00  #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 7.9
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #120
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #119
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Rice: -17.27   Texas State: -0.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Rice: -14.8   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -0.1  #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54  #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.6

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 36
Rice 20


Projected Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202501/02Texas State41Rice10Texas State -19.5Texas State55.5Under
202312/26Rice21Texas State45Texas State -3.5Texas State58.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State221 Overs
Rice001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

Rice Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Forces Bowl Rice vs Texas State+19.555.5L 10 - 41
2023Responder Bowl Rice vs Texas State+3.558.5L 21 - 45
2022Lendingtree Bowl Rice vs Southern Miss+7.046.5L 24 - 38
Texas State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Forces Bowl Texas State vs Rice-19.555.5W 41 - 10
2024Responder Bowl Texas State vs North Texas-15.567.5W 30 - 28
2023Responder Bowl Texas State vs Rice-3.558.5W 45 - 21
  
(#126) RICE at (#74) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatRICETXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #126 #74
SP+SP+ #120 #65
Perf GradeGrade #123 #35
OffenseOff #107 #35
DefenseDef #124 #49
Spec TeamsST #96 #73
TalentTal #107 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #65
Rice Notes
(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Rice on Offense
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #107 #49
SuccessSuc #127 #31
ExplosiveExp #36 #107
PPAPPA #126 #50
PowerPwr #128 #95
SP+SP+ #119 #117
Pts POPPO #119 #33
HavocHav #123 #26
Rice Run Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #129 #49
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #21
Run ExplRExp #55 #123
PPAExp #126 #67
Run BlockR Blk #90 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #60
Stuff RateStuff #81 #31
TackleTak -  #118
Rice Pass Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #77 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #54
Pass ExplPExl #97 #62
PPAExp #121 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #112 #8
F7 HavocF7 #63 #7
DB HavocDB #133 #106
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffRICE Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #124
SuccessSuc #17 #11
ExplosiveExp #115 #99
PPAPPA #25 #60
PowerPwr #59 #105
SP+SP+ #15 #112
Pts POPPO #72 #62
HavocHav #29 #55
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffRICE Def
Run GameRun #17 #101
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #37
Run ExplRExp #110 #103
PPAExp #49 #85
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #80
Stuff RateStuff #23 #110
TackleTak -  #115
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffRICE Def
Pass GamePass #42 #130
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #4
Pass ExplPExl #91 #109
PPAExp #13 #33
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #76
F7 HavocF7 #35 #45
DB HavocDB #44 #70
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Texas State -19.5 (55.5)
Texas State won vs Rice this year (41-10)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Rice last year (41-10)
Texas State beat Rice in 2023 (45-21)

  
RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins11917269%1025926.0
Drew Devillier102148%123105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson18088964.973
Chase Jenkins15153153.534
Daelen Alexander7439235.357
DAndre Hardeman Jr.7630224.036
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Turner6339846.355
Drayden Dickmann3732338.746
Tyson Thompson8105213.137
Payton Matthews493023.354

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Awe939432
Ty Anthony Morris799333
Tony Anyanwu638731
Marcus Williams614015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Anyanwu638731
Michael Daley155522
Andrew Awe939432
Ty Anthony Morris799333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omari Porter311018
Khary Crump140006
Marcus Williams614015

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2111129125.463
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Lincoln Pare3731128.432
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne1017232
Ryan Nolan723022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)521020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4812550
Donterry Russell (Tr)186401
Kenard Snyder (Tr)359320
Treylin Payne1017232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)244104
Amarion Atwood292023
Bobby Crosby593203