Rice at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Rice logo Rice Owls vs Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Friday, January 2nd 2026 (1:00 PM EST)
Texas State -16.5 (55.5) (-675)  Open: -10.5 | 59.5
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX  (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

 
Owls (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Abell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (14 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 7.9 (#85)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas State -17  (SP+ TXST -15)

Projected Score: RICE: 20 - TXST: 37 (57)
TXST Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
RICE Travel: 151 miles
Bobcats (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 31 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Rice's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Rice at Louisiana+14.549.5W 14 - 12UY
Sat 9/6 Rice vs Houston+13.538.5L 9 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Rice vs Prairie View A&M-29.548.5W 38 - 17ON
Thu 9/18 Rice at Charlotte-1.541.5W 28 - 17OY
Sat 9/27 Rice at Navy+14.045.5L 13 - 21UY
Sat 10/4 Rice vs Florida Atlantic-4.554.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Rice at UTSA+8.548.5L 13 - 61ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Rice vs UConn+10.548.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 10/31 Rice vs Memphis+13.548.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Rice vs UAB+1.551.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Rice vs North Texas+18.557.0L 24 - 56ON
Sat 11/29 Rice at South Florida+28.557.5L 3 - 52UN
Fri 1/2 Rice vs Texas State+16.555.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Rice's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-16.555.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
RICE#114 (.09)38% (113)19.840% (101)2.84 (86)21334% (132)983.33 (106)#119 (.25)40% (52)32.341% (55)40% (48)3.8 (82)48.90.70.5
TXST#8 (.33)47% (24)36.146% (42)3.1 (40)22147% (19)2554.59 (14)#100 (.21)43% (85)30.643% (70)44% (98)4.1 (109)57.21.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
RICE#126 (.05)35% (127)36% (127)2.7 (118)11535% (121)2393.27 (119)#60 (.16)37% (11)40% (37)34% (4)3.72 (62)57.41.81
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
RICE Offense1219.814.238.3%3.330.718311213984.371%28%40%34%17%.09
TXST Defense1230.628.342.9%4.10.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%44%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
RICE Defense1232.332.640%3.80.5 - - - - - 48%50%41%40%13%.25
TXST Offense1236.13846.7%4.591.3234772212555.157%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Rice1232:5417.536%55%4.848.90.70.54.81.8026.6
Texas State1229:0822.848%59%6.857.21.30.86.81.8226.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
RICE Offense1271% (4)40% (101)50.3213.34.320 (60).08 (84)2.84 (86)75% (55)13% (131)1 (57)
TXST Defense1251% (91)43% (70) - - - - .12 (85)2.85 (60)71% (68)10% (61)1.05 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
RICE Defense1248% (49)41% (55) - - - - .15 (94)2.96 (79)64% (19)8% (115)1.15 (132)
TXST Offense1257% (21)46% (42)43.1221.25.134 (4).27 (8)3.1 (40)66% (103)8% (34)1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
RICE Offense1228% (133)34% (132)11.316.997.95.88.710 (121)3 (7).12 (121)1.6 (37)31% (62)22% (134).09 (130)3% (9)2.1 (41)
TXST Defense1247% (54)44% (98) - - - - - - 8 (123).31 (95)1.6 (90)32% (58)35% (125).36 (102)5% (110)1.9 (31)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
RICE Defense1250% (92)40% (48) - - - - - - 3 (100).38 (118)1.9 (135)33% (49)31% (84).44 (128)5% (90)2.5 (135)
TXST Offense1242% (115)47% (19)19.627.9255.49.21318 (86)7 (7).43 (16)1.6 (33)29% (32)39% (9).56 (8)4% (12)2 (70)

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -13.50  #124
Rice's Offense Rating: 0.57  #123
Rice's Defense Rating: 14.07  #106
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00  #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Rice's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 7.9
Rice's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #119
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6  #119
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Rice: -13.50   Texas State: 3.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Rice: -14.3   Texas State: 0.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 3.21  #53
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.24  #26
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.12  #85
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.3  #72
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.6

Rice's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 37
Rice 20


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 43
Rice 16

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 35
Rice 23

Total Points: 58
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/26Rice21Texas State45Texas State -3.5Texas State58.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State111 Overs
Rice000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

Rice Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Responder Bowl Rice vs Texas State+3.558.5L 21 - 45
2022Lendingtree Bowl Rice vs Southern Miss+7.046.5L 24 - 38
Texas State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Responder Bowl Texas State vs North Texas-15.567.5W 30 - 28
2023Responder Bowl Texas State vs Rice-3.558.5W 45 - 21
  
(#124) RICE at (#53) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatRICETXST
Power RatePwr #124 #53
SP+SP+ #119 #72
Perf GradeGrade #124 #48
OffenseOff #100 #44
DefenseDef #128 #68
Spec TeamsST #94 #57
TalentTal #107 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #65
Rice Notes
(10/25) Huge W over UConn, 300 yds rushing, 4 TDs
(10/24) Down to QB4? Won't know QB1 till UConn game
(9/18) Option team w/ a good punter. Love 'em
(9/18) Team is really undersized, but play hard
(9/18) QB Jenkins can scoot, but passing not strong
(8/30) 200+ yds rushing in huge W over Louisiana
(8/25) QB1 Chase Jenkins starter, was WR LY at times
(6/6) RB Balthazar (CCU) hurt LY, but will be a factor
(6/6) Pass rush huge ? Have LBs, DB looks decent.
(6/6) QB - Warner left (Fresno). Who can run option?
(6/6) Def was bad, have some exp. 4 portal adds
(6/6) Really hard job, minimal portal. Option great idea
Rice Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Rice on Offense
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #100 #68
SuccessSuc #113 #85
ExplosiveExp #127 #104
PPAPPA #114 #100
PowerPwr #123 #85
SP+SP+ #119 #123
Pts POPPO #106 #109
HavocHav #92 #94
Rice Run Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #112 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #70
Run ExplRExp #57 #109
PPAExp #84 #85
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #86 #60
Stuff RateStuff #69 #15
TackleTak -  #121
Rice Pass Game
Option Offense 71%, Pass: 28%
CategoryCat
RICE OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #88 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #98
Pass ExplPExl #37 #90
PPAExp #121 #95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #127 #25
F7 HavocF7 #131 #61
DB HavocDB #9 #110
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffRICE Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #128
SuccessSuc #24 #52
ExplosiveExp #17 #136
PPAPPA #8 #119
PowerPwr #26 #106
SP+SP+ #18 #104
Pts POPPO #14 #82
HavocHav #15 #113
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffRICE Def
Run GameRun #41 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #55
Run ExplRExp #11 #132
PPAExp #8 #94
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #40 #79
Stuff RateStuff #40 #84
TackleTak -  #77
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffRICE Def
Pass GamePass #50 #132
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #48
Pass ExplPExl #33 #135
PPAExp #16 #118
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #66
F7 HavocF7 #34 #115
DB HavocDB #12 #90
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 70° - Wind: 10 mph
Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Rice in 2023 (45-21)

  
RICE's OC Vince Munch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins11917269%1025926.0
Drew Devillier102148%123105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Jackson16481164.973
Chase Jenkins15153153.534
Daelen Alexander7439235.357
DAndre Hardeman Jr.7229624.136
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Turner5337437.155
Drayden Dickmann3732338.746
Tyson Thompson8105213.137
Quinton Jackson474118.575

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Jon Kay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Awe887322
Ty Anthony Morris738332
Marcus Williams614015
Tony Anyanwu527531
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Anyanwu527531
Michael Daley155522
Andrew Awe887322
Ty Anthony Morris738332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omari Porter301018
Khary Crump140006
Marcus Williams614015

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson23432871%30491879.3
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2001023115.162
Brad Jackson160692164.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)9159036.561
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks801113913.973
Chris Dawn Jr.54931217.282
Lincoln Pare3630528.532
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne967222
Ryan Nolan682022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)461020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4411440
Kenard Snyder (Tr)306320
Donterry Russell (Tr)175301
Treylin Payne967222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)234104
Amarion Atwood271023
Bobby Crosby593203