Nicholls at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nicholls logo Nicholls Colonels at Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -32.5 (57.0) (0)  Open: -29.5 | 54.5
Texas State 35 - Nicholls: 3

 
Colonels (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 12 - 37 (12 - 37 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NICH coming off BYE
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -0  (SP+ TXST -7)
TXST Win prob: 97% | Cover: 46%
Bobcats (3 - 5) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (37 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 6.3 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Nicholls's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nicholls at Troy+16.546.5L 20 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Nicholls at Texas State+32.557.0L 3 - 35UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nicholls's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+5
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-13.5
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-11.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NICH0%11.50%000%000%36.50%0%0000
TXST#29 (.27)43% (64)34.144% (73)2.89 (57)21844% (55)2544.6 (21)#105 (.2)44% (101)33.944% (96)44% (100)4.33 (114)53.51.40.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NICH Offense211.511.50%00000000%0%0%0%0%
TXST Defense833.932.544.2%4.330.4 - - - - - 50%50%44%44%14%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NICH Defense236.536.50%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
TXST Offense834.13743.4%4.61.4224722182544.958%41%44%44%13%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nicholls20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Texas State829:052249%56%6.653.51.40.46.52.4027.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NICH Offense20%0%000000%0%0
TXST Defense850% (69)44% (96) - - - - .15 (106)2.66 (57)63% (28)10% (70)1.09 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NICH Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
TXST Offense858% (18)44% (73)44.42184.924 (4).23 (19)2.89 (57)67% (95)8% (38)1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NICH Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
TXST Defense850% (76)44% (100) - - - - - - 3 (123).26 (84)1.5 (67)30% (94)36% (126).37 (107)4% (130)1.9 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NICH Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
TXST Offense841% (118)44% (55)18.828.4254913.610 (86)5 (7).36 (35)1.7 (17)31% (60)38% (13).52 (15)5% (28)1.9 (91)

Nicholls's Power Ratings
Nicholls's Power Rating: NR
Nicholls's Offense Rating: NR
Nicholls's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Nicholls's 2025 Expected Record: -
Nicholls's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Nicholls's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Nicholls's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Southland Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nicholls:    Texas State: 0.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nicholls:    Texas State: -6.6




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 0.125  #67
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.37  #49
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.52  #93
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.7 - 6.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #98
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #42
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2  #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nicholls Scoring
Offense: 11.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.5
Defense: 36.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Nicholls's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Nicholls 30
Texas State 30

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 41
Nicholls 23

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 36
Nicholls 23

Total Points: 59
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 37
Defense: 33.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Texas State35Nicholls3Texas State -32.5Nicholls57.0Under
201909/28Texas State24Nicholls3Texas State -2.5Texas State55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State210 Overs
Nicholls012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#NR) NICH at (#67) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNICHTXST
Power RatePwrNR #67
SP+SP+NR #98
Perf GradeGradeNR #63
OffenseOffNR #44
DefenseDefNR #105
Spec TeamsSTNR #57
TalentTalNR #89
Blue ChipsBC%NR #65
Texas State Notes
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 3 portals, some depth
Texas State Injury Report
Nicholls on Offense
CategoryCat
NICH OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerfNR #105
SuccessSucNR #101
ExplosiveExpNR #97
PPAPPANR #105
PowerPwrNR #93
SP+SP+NR #130
Pts POPPONR #114
HavocHavNR #112
Nicholls Run Game
CategoryCat
NICH OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNR #78
Run SuccessRSucNR #96
Run ExplRExpNR #122
PPAExpNR #106
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #57
Stuff RateStuffNR #36
TackleTak -  #121
Nicholls Pass Game
CategoryCat
NICH OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNR #123
Pass SuccessPSucNR #100
Pass ExplPExlNR #67
PPAExpNR #84
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #21
F7 HavocF7NR #70
DB HavocDBNR #130
Texas State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatTXST OffNICH Def
Perf GradePerf #44NR
SuccessSuc #64NR
ExplosiveExp #12NR
PPAPPA #29NR
PowerPwr #49NR
SP+SP+ #42NR
Pts POPPO #21NR
HavocHav #27NR
Texas State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffNICH Def
Run GameRun #43NR
Run SuccessRSuc #73NR
Run ExplRExp #8NR
PPAExp #19NR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #57NR
Stuff RateStuff #59NR
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatTXST OffNICH Def
Pass GamePass #74NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #55NR
Pass ExplPExl #17NR
PPAExp #35NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37NR
F7 HavocF7 #38NR
DB HavocDB #28NR
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

NICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 89° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Texas State -32.5 (57.0)
Texas State won vs Nicholls this year (35-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NICH's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Deuce Hogan11919661%1038455.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Warren Jr.123202.710
Jordan Poole133102.412
DK Kency71402.06
Damondrick Blackburn3602.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Everett Hunter19209211.036
Scrappy Osby2414205.922
Solomon Lewis1810605.915
Jordan Smith (Tr)442010.512

View Nicholls's Full Roster

NICH's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Lee190000
Hayden Shaheen170000
Ty Marsh131010
Laurence Sullivan Jr.130000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheed Lovelace91100
Ethan Lee190000
Hayden Shaheen170000
Ty Marsh131010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Payton Tally90012
Ethan Lee190000
Hayden Shaheen170000

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson14922068%20161059.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare13064895.062
Brad Jackson10642794.063
Greg Burrell (Tr)5935936.159
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks51741614.573
Chris Dawn Jr.27511018.966
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Lincoln Pare1917309.129

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne664211
Ryan Nolan411022
Bobby Crosby372102
Ayden Jones (Tr)351020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell (Tr)114300
Kalil Alexander266320
Kenard Snyder (Tr)204220
Tymere Jackson255242
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan411022
Bobby Crosby372102
William Mitchell100002