Nicholls at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nicholls logo   Nicholls Colonels at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -32.5 (57.0) (0)  Open: -29.5 | 54.5
Texas State 35 - Nicholls: 3

 
Colonels (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 12 - 37 (12 - 37 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NICH coming off BYE
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -2.5  (SP+ TXST -2)
TXST Win prob: 97% | Cover: 46%
Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Nicholls's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nicholls at Troy+16.546.5L 20 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Nicholls at Texas State+32.557.0L 3 - 35UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nicholls's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-19.555.5W 41 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NICH0%11.50%000%000%36.50%0%0000
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)2938% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NICH Offense211.511.50%00000000%0%0%0%0%
TXST Defense132928.338.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NICH Defense236.536.50%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
TXST Offense1336.53848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nicholls20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NICH Offense20%0%000000%0%0
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NICH Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NICH Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NICH Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

Nicholls's Power Ratings
Nicholls's Power Rating: NR
Nicholls's Offense Rating: NR
Nicholls's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Nicholls's 2025 Expected Record: -
Nicholls's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Nicholls's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Nicholls's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Southland Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nicholls:    Texas State: 2.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nicholls:    Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.4  #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54  #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nicholls Scoring
Offense: 11.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.5
Defense: 36.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.5

Nicholls's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 30
Nicholls 27

Projected Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Texas State35Nicholls3Texas State -32.5Nicholls57.0Under
201909/28Texas State24Nicholls3Texas State -2.5Texas State55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State210 Overs
Nicholls012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#) NICH at (#74) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNICHTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #74
SP+SP+NR #65
Perf GradeGradeNR #35
OffenseOffNR #35
DefenseDefNR #49
Spec TeamsSTNR #73
TalentTalNR #89
Blue ChipsBC%NR #65
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Nicholls on Offense
CategoryCat
NICH OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #49
SuccessSucNR #31
ExplosiveExpNR #107
PPAPPANR #50
PowerPwrNR #95
SP+SP+NR #117
Pts POPPONR #33
HavocHavNR #26
Nicholls Run Game
CategoryCat
NICH OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNR #49
Run SuccessRSucNR #21
Run ExplRExpNR #123
PPAExpNR #67
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #60
Stuff RateStuffNR #31
TackleTak -  #118
Nicholls Pass Game
CategoryCat
NICH OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNR #83
Pass SuccessPSucNR #54
Pass ExplPExlNR #62
PPAExpNR #45
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #8
F7 HavocF7NR #7
DB HavocDBNR #106
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffNICH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35NR
SuccessSuc #17NR
ExplosiveExp #115NR
PPAPPA #25NR
PowerPwr #59NR
SP+SP+ #15NR
Pts POPPO #72NR
HavocHav #29NR
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffNICH Def
Run GameRun #17NR
Run SuccessRSuc #14NR
Run ExplRExp #110NR
PPAExp #49NR
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #11NR
Stuff RateStuff #23NR
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffNICH Def
Pass GamePass #42NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #10NR
Pass ExplPExl #91NR
PPAExp #13NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25NR
F7 HavocF7 #35NR
DB HavocDB #44NR
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

NICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Texas State -32.5 (57.0)
Texas State won vs Nicholls this year (35-3)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Nicholls last year (35-3)

  
NICH's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Deuce Hogan12019861%1046455.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Warren Jr.137916.147
Jordan Poole133102.412
DK Kency71402.06
Damondrick Blackburn3602.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Scrappy Osby3629508.222
Everett Hunter24283311.836
Solomon Lewis1810605.915
Jordan Smith (Tr)442010.512

View Nicholls's Full Roster

NICH's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Lee190000
Hayden Shaheen170000
Laurence Sullivan Jr.130000
Ty Marsh131010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheed Lovelace91100
Ethan Lee190000
Hayden Shaheen170000
Laurence Sullivan Jr.130000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Payton Tally90012
Ethan Lee190000
Hayden Shaheen170000

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2111129125.463
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Lincoln Pare3731128.432
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne1017232
Ryan Nolan723022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)521020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4812550
Donterry Russell (Tr)186401
Kenard Snyder (Tr)359320
Treylin Payne1017232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)244104
Amarion Atwood292023
Bobby Crosby593203