Texas State at Louisiana - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Ragin' CajunsLouisiana logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (5:00 PM EST)
Texas State -3 (64.5) (-135)  Open: -3.0
Cajun Field - Lafayette, LA  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (3 - 5) (2 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 6.3 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
ULL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -5.5  (SP+ TXST -3.5)

Projected Score: TXST: 33 - ULL: 28 (61)
TXST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 353 miles
Ragin' Cajuns (3 - 6) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 24 - 29 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.064.5
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+5
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-13.5
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-11.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Louisiana's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana vs Rice-14.549.5L 12 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Louisiana vs McNeese-19.050.0W 34 - 10UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana at Missouri+27.547.5L 10 - 52ON
Sat 9/20 Louisiana at Eastern Michigan-2.551.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/27 Louisiana vs Marshall+2.547.5W 54 - 51OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Louisiana at James Madison+18.544.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Louisiana vs Southern Miss+4.554.5L 10 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 Louisiana at Troy+7.047.5L 23 - 35ON
Sat 11/1 Louisiana at South Alabama+3.552.5W 31 - 22OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana vs Texas State+3.064.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Louisiana at Arkansas State+2.5
Sat 11/29 Louisiana vs UL Monroe-5.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Louisiana's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#29 (.27)43% (64)34.144% (73)2.89 (57)21844% (55)2544.6 (21)#105 (.2)44% (101)33.944% (96)44% (100)4.33 (114)53.51.40.4
ULL#98 (.12)40% (106)24.345% (59)2.87 (62)18534% (131)1553.08 (120)#90 (.18)46% (120)29.348% (126)44% (99)3.5 (53)48.21.41.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
ULL#16 (.3)45% (47)42% (91)3.24 (35)15947% (17)2424.27 (32)#97 (.22)48% (126)53% (133)44% (105)4.43 (121)44.50.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense834.131.343.4%4.61.4224722182544.958%41%44%44%13%.27
ULL Defense929.324.345.8%3.51.3 - - - - - 57%41%48%44%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense833.935.344.2%4.330.4 - - - - - 50%50%44%44%14%.2
ULL Offense924.327.539.7%3.081.4183411851554.957%42%45%34%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State829:052249%56%6.653.51.40.46.52.4027.3
Louisiana928:2318.439%42%648.21.41.34.11.4125.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense858% (18)44% (73)44.42184.924 (4).23 (19)2.89 (57)67% (95)8% (38)1.16 (8)
ULL Defense957% (130)48% (126) - - - - .15 (109)3.24 (126)75% (93)8% (117)0.92 (53)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense850% (69)44% (96) - - - - .15 (106)2.66 (57)63% (28)10% (70)1.09 (122)
ULL Offense957% (21)45% (59)37.8185.34.917 (40).19 (33)2.87 (62)70% (76)11% (104)1.01 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense841% (118)44% (55)18.828.4254913.610 (86)5 (7).36 (35)1.7 (17)31% (60)38% (13).52 (15)5% (28)1.9 (91)
ULL Defense941% (6)44% (99) - - - - - - 7 (55).28 (93)1.5 (53)26% (134)27% (43).35 (101)4% (131)2.2 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense850% (76)44% (100) - - - - - - 3 (123).26 (84)1.5 (67)30% (94)36% (126).37 (107)4% (130)1.9 (51)
ULL Offense942% (117)34% (131)12.824.7155.46.312.28 (121)11 (119).08 (124)1.6 (42)32% (90)25% (118).14 (120)6% (63)2 (59)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 1.85  #67
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.37  #49
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.52  #93
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.7 - 6.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #98
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #42
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2  #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 1.85   Louisiana: -8.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -6.6   Louisiana: -10.2




Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: -8.04  #115
Louisiana's Offense Rating: 2.33  #112
Louisiana's Defense Rating: 13.21  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 568.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Louisiana's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Louisiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #107
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.8  #100
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 33.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 33
Louisiana 28


Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 28
Louisiana 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 30
Louisiana 30

Total Points: 60
Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 29.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

Louisiana's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/29Texas State17Louisiana23Texas State -4Louisiana60.5Under
202310/07Louisiana34Texas State30Louisiana -1Louisiana67.5Under
202211/26Texas State13Louisiana41Louisiana -5Louisiana44.0Over
202110/30Louisiana45Texas State0Louisiana -21Louisiana58.0Under
202010/31Texas State34Louisiana44Louisiana -17.0Texas State0
201911/02Louisiana31Texas State3Louisiana -23Louisiana55.0Under
201810/06Texas State27Louisiana42Louisiana -3Louisiana57.5Over
201710/12Louisiana24Texas State7Louisiana -14Louisiana55.5Under
201610/22Texas State3Louisiana27Louisiana -11.5Louisiana65.0Under
201510/10Louisiana49Texas State27Louisiana -4Louisiana68.0Over
201410/14Texas State10Louisiana34Texas State -3Louisiana61.5Under
201310/05Louisiana48Texas State24Louisiana -10Louisiana0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana12113 Overs
Texas State017 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 67 - 56 - 21 - 3
Road Teams6 - 65 - 73 - 12 - 6

(#67) TXST at (#115) ULL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTULL
Power RatePwr #67 #115
SP+SP+ #98 #107
Perf GradeGrade #63 #122
OffenseOff #44 #120
DefenseDef #105 #113
Spec TeamsST #57 #112
TalentTal #89 #102
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #88
Texas State Notes
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 3 portals, some depth
Texas State Injury Report
Louisiana Notes
(10/19) 1-4 run, can't Pass and teams know it. Killing Off
(9/20) Def allowed 400 yds to EMU? WTF the deal here?
(9/20) Pass Off bottom 10 in CFB, Def is awful.
(9/4) QB Daniel Beale (rFr) now starter this year
(9/4) QB Walker Howard likely out for the season
(9/4) 4 straight years starting QB has been injured
(8/30) Offense awful in bad L to Rice, Howard terrible
(8/28) Don't love HC Desormeaux so far
(8/19) QB1 Walker Howard named starter Aug 19th
(8/1) Off has great potential, but slow & methodical
(8/1) Pot. co favs in SB West, but Def must improve
(8/1) QB W Howard (Miss) huge pickup, 5* croot.
Louisiana Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULL Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #113
SuccessSuc #64 #120
ExplosiveExp #12 #17
PPAPPA #29 #90
PowerPwr #49 #103
SP+SP+ #42 #110
Pts POPPO #21 #53
HavocHav #27 #130
Texas State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULL Def
Run GameRun #43 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #73 #126
Run ExplRExp #8 #53
PPAExp #19 #109
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #57 #126
Stuff RateStuff #59 #107
TackleTak -  #84
Texas State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULL Def
Pass GamePass #74 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #55 #99
Pass ExplPExl #17 #53
PPAExp #35 #93
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #103
F7 HavocF7 #38 #117
DB HavocDB #28 #131
Louisiana on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatULL OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #120 #105
SuccessSuc #106 #101
ExplosiveExp #83 #97
PPAPPA #98 #105
PowerPwr #112 #93
SP+SP+ #100 #130
Pts POPPO #120 #114
HavocHav #83 #112
Louisiana Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
ULL OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #47 #78
Run SuccessRSuc #59 #96
Run ExplRExp #48 #122
PPAExp #33 #106
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #57
Stuff RateStuff #61 #36
TackleTak -  #121
Louisiana Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatULL OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #128 #123
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #100
Pass ExplPExl #42 #67
PPAExp #124 #84
Pass Block/RushP Blk #89 #21
F7 HavocF7 #104 #70
DB HavocDB #63 #130
Program Comparison
ULL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cajun Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat Texas State last year (23-17)
Louisiana beat Texas State in 2023 (34-30)
Louisiana beat Texas State in 2022 (41-13)

  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson14922068%20161059.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare13064895.062
Brad Jackson10642794.063
Greg Burrell (Tr)5935936.159
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks51741614.573
Chris Dawn Jr.27511018.966
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Lincoln Pare1917309.129

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne664211
Ryan Nolan411022
Bobby Crosby372102
Ayden Jones (Tr)351020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell (Tr)114300
Kalil Alexander266320
Kenard Snyder (Tr)204220
Tymere Jackson255242
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Canden Grogan150002
Bobby Crosby372102
Ryan Nolan411022

ULL's OC Tim Leger (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D'Wayne' Winfield6110757%903748.4
Daniel Beale428450%385144.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zylan Perry9654375.784
Bill Davis10446934.545
D'Wayne' Winfield9145355.039
Steven Blanco2413715.734
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shelton Sampson Jr. (Tr)19362319.145
Robert Williams17269015.844
Charles Robertson9169118.845
Dale Martin6134222.369

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC Jim Salgado (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Dugger837112
Terrence Williams622100
Tyree Skipper511101
Jake St. Andre462110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Lawson357261
Jaelen Crider152210
Jaden Dugger837112
Trae Tomlinson (Tr)261120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Gordon Jr.370014
Jaden Dugger837112
Courtline Flowers423102