Texas State at Louisiana - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Ragin' CajunsLouisiana logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (5:00 PM EST)
Texas State -3.5 (62.5) (-175)  Open: -3.0
Louisiana 42 - Texas State: 39  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 31 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
ULL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -11  (SP+ TXST -9)

Projected Score: TXST: 36 - ULL: 25 (60)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 353 miles
Ragin' Cajuns (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (30 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-17.555.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Louisiana's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana vs Rice-14.549.5L 12 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Louisiana vs McNeese-19.050.0W 34 - 10UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana at Missouri+27.547.5L 10 - 52ON
Sat 9/20 Louisiana at Eastern Michigan-2.551.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/27 Louisiana vs Marshall+2.547.5W 54 - 51OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Louisiana at James Madison+18.544.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Louisiana vs Southern Miss+4.554.5L 10 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 Louisiana at Troy+7.047.5L 23 - 35ON
Sat 11/1 Louisiana at South Alabama+3.552.5W 31 - 22OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana vs Texas State+3.562.5W 42 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Louisiana at Arkansas State+2.554.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana vs UL Monroe-10.547.5W 30 - 27ON
Wed 12/17 Louisiana vs Delaware-1.560.5L 13 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Louisiana's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#8 (.33)47% (24)36.146% (42)3.1 (40)22147% (19)2554.59 (14)#100 (.21)43% (85)30.643% (70)44% (98)4.1 (109)57.21.30.8
ULL#101 (.12)39% (109)2642% (84)2.9 (76)18335% (128)1613.45 (93)#90 (.19)46% (124)29.248% (126)45% (109)3.33 (39)46.51.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
ULL#16 (.3)45% (47)42% (91)3.24 (35)15947% (17)2424.27 (32)#97 (.22)48% (126)53% (133)44% (105)4.43 (121)44.50.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1236.134.246.7%4.591.3234772212555.157%42%46%47%12%.33
ULL Defense1329.227.246.1%3.331.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1230.632.842.9%4.10.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%44%15%.21
ULL Offense132630.338.7%3.451.5193441831614.657%41%42%35%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1229:0822.848%59%6.857.21.30.86.81.8226.6
Louisiana1329:5818.941%55%5.946.51.51.44.51.7227.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1257% (21)46% (42)43.1221.25.134 (4).27 (8)3.1 (40)66% (103)8% (34)1.14 (11)
ULL Defense1353% (109)48% (126) - - - - .18 (115)3.29 (126)73% (80)9% (103)0.99 (89)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1251% (91)43% (70) - - - - .12 (85)2.85 (60)71% (68)10% (61)1.05 (109)
ULL Offense1357% (22)42% (84)39.6182.94.626 (40).13 (62)2.9 (76)71% (75)11% (110)0.99 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1242% (115)47% (19)19.627.9255.49.21318 (86)7 (7).43 (16)1.6 (33)29% (32)39% (9).56 (8)4% (12)2 (70)
ULL Defense1345% (29)45% (109) - - - - - - 9 (55).27 (81)1.5 (32)26% (133)28% (44).31 (75)5% (104)2.3 (133)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1247% (54)44% (98) - - - - - - 8 (123).31 (95)1.6 (90)32% (58)35% (125).36 (102)5% (110)1.9 (31)
ULL Offense1341% (120)35% (128)14.426.2161.26.111.212 (121)14 (119).15 (115)1.6 (45)33% (108)26% (110).21 (102)5% (44)1.9 (108)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.12  #53
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.24  #26
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.12  #85
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.3  #72
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 6.12   Louisiana: -7.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 0.3   Louisiana: -8.7




Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: -7.85  #120
Louisiana's Offense Rating: 2.57  #110
Louisiana's Defense Rating: 14.57  #109
2025 Talent Rating: 568.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Louisiana's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Louisiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7  #100
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #116

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 36
Louisiana 25


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 28
Louisiana 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 32
Louisiana 30

Total Points: 62
Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Louisiana's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Louisiana42Texas State39Texas State -3.5Louisiana62.5Over
202410/29Texas State17Louisiana23Texas State -4Louisiana60.5Under
202310/07Louisiana34Texas State30Louisiana -1Louisiana67.5Under
202211/26Texas State13Louisiana41Louisiana -5Louisiana44.0Over
202110/30Louisiana45Texas State0Louisiana -21Louisiana58.0Under
202010/31Texas State34Louisiana44Louisiana -17.0Texas State0
201911/02Louisiana31Texas State3Louisiana -23Louisiana55.0Under
201810/06Texas State27Louisiana42Louisiana -3Louisiana57.5Over
201710/12Louisiana24Texas State7Louisiana -14Louisiana55.5Under
201610/22Texas State3Louisiana27Louisiana -11.5Louisiana65.0Under
201510/10Louisiana49Texas State27Louisiana -4Louisiana68.0Over
201410/14Texas State10Louisiana34Texas State -3Louisiana61.5Under
201310/05Louisiana48Texas State24Louisiana -10Louisiana0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana13124 Overs
Texas State017 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 68 - 56 - 22 - 3
Road Teams6 - 75 - 83 - 22 - 6

(#53) TXST at (#120) ULL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTULL
Power RatePwr #53 #120
SP+SP+ #72 #100
Perf GradeGrade #48 #121
OffenseOff #44 #120
DefenseDef #68 #113
Spec TeamsST #57 #116
TalentTal #89 #102
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #88
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Louisiana Notes
(11/21) Was 2-6, won 3 straight to stay in bowl fight
(11/20) QB Lunch Winfield a find. Program changer?
(10/19) 1-4 run, can't Pass and teams know it. Killing Off
(9/20) Def allowed 400 yds to EMU? WTF the deal here?
(9/20) Pass Off bottom 10 in CFB, Def is awful.
(9/4) QB Daniel Beale (rFr) now starter this year
(9/4) QB Walker Howard likely out for the season
(9/4) 4 straight years starting QB has been injured
(8/30) Offense awful in bad L to Rice, Howard terrible
(8/28) Don't love HC Desormeaux so far
(8/19) QB1 Walker Howard named starter Aug 19th
(8/1) Off has great potential, but slow & methodical
Louisiana Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULL Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #113
SuccessSuc #24 #124
ExplosiveExp #17 #37
PPAPPA #8 #90
PowerPwr #26 #109
SP+SP+ #18 #116
Pts POPPO #14 #39
HavocHav #15 #111
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULL Def
Run GameRun #41 #111
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #126
Run ExplRExp #11 #89
PPAExp #8 #115
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #40 #126
Stuff RateStuff #40 #106
TackleTak -  #90
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULL Def
Pass GamePass #50 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #109
Pass ExplPExl #33 #32
PPAExp #16 #81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #36 #112
F7 HavocF7 #34 #103
DB HavocDB #12 #104
Louisiana on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatULL OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #120 #68
SuccessSuc #109 #85
ExplosiveExp #93 #104
PPAPPA #101 #100
PowerPwr #110 #85
SP+SP+ #75 #123
Pts POPPO #93 #109
HavocHav #79 #94
Louisiana Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
ULL OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #70 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #70
Run ExplRExp #58 #109
PPAExp #62 #85
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #76 #60
Stuff RateStuff #108 #15
TackleTak -  #121
Louisiana Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatULL OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #126 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #128 #98
Pass ExplPExl #45 #90
PPAExp #115 #95
Pass Block/RushP Blk #92 #25
F7 HavocF7 #110 #61
DB HavocDB #44 #110
Program Comparison
ULL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cajun Field
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 11
Texas State 3.5 (62.5)
Louisiana won vs Texas State this year (42-39)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat Texas State last year (23-17)
Louisiana beat Texas State in 2023 (34-30)
Louisiana beat Texas State in 2022 (41-13)

  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson23432871%30491879.3
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2001023115.162
Brad Jackson160692164.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)9159036.561
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks801113913.973
Chris Dawn Jr.54931217.282
Lincoln Pare3630528.532
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne967222
Ryan Nolan682022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)461020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4411440
Kenard Snyder (Tr)306320
Donterry Russell (Tr)175301
Treylin Payne967222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)234104
Amarion Atwood271023
Bobby Crosby593203

ULL's OC Tim Leger (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D'Wayne' Winfield12721559%15551177.2
Daniel Beale428450%385144.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bill Davis15876364.876
Zylan Perry13868985.084
D'Wayne' Winfield15266794.442
Steven Blanco3015625.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shelton Sampson Jr. (Tr)32537616.845
Robert Williams25309012.444
Charles Robertson15250116.745
Caden Jensen2923118.040

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC Jim Salgado (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Dugger12413413
Terrence Williams953100
Brent Gordon Jr.6210111
Tyree Skipper551102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Lawson5215591
Jaden Dugger12413413
Jaelen Crider254311
Cameron Whitfield302130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Gordon Jr.6210111
Courtline Flowers483104
Jaden Dugger12413413