South Alabama at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo South Alabama Jaguars at Texas State BobcatsTexas State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX  (Sun Belt)

 
Jaguars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 4.4 (#40)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
TXST 2nd straight Home Game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -0.5   (SP+ USA -4)

Projected Score: USA: 29 - TXST: 29 (61)
TXST Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
USA Travel: 592 miles
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-20.5
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+4
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+22.5
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-11
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas-2.5
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy+1
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-11
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-11.5
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-9.5
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss-8.5
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+8
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+22
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-4
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-2
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-10
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+4
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana+0.5
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss-1.5
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-12.5
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)34.453% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)25.239% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)24.538% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense1334.425.549.8%4.660.9224421992435.851%49%53%47%14%.34
TXST Defense1324.522.138.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense1325.222.840.9%3.661.5 - - - - - 48%52%39%43%16%.15
TXST Offense1336.538.748%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama1329:2021.539%68%8.270.80.91.55.61.6429.3
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense1351% (67)53% (4)34.1199.25.832 (14).33 (3)3.57 (6)82% (12)10% (79)1.06 (40)
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense1348% (38)39% (28) - - - - .09 (53)2.78 (32)71% (51)10% (78)1.05 (98)
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense1349% (68)47% (18)19.530243.28.112.521 (51)6 (10).36 (27)1.5 (101)29% (27)33% (49).48 (15)4% (14)2.2 (14)
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense1352% (98)43% (96) - - - - - - 16 (10).24 (73)1.5 (32)32% (69)30% (55).15 (8)6% (59)1.7 (5)
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -2.23 #68
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 16.39 #49
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 18.62 #94
2025 Talent Rating: 534.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #76
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #74
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -2.23   Texas State: -2.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.4   Texas State: -7.2




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.215 #68
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.59 #70
Texas State's Defense Rating: 15.82 #74
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 29
South Alabama 29


Projected Total Points: 61
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29South Alabama38Texas State45Texas StateTexas State -2.5Texas State60.5Over
202311/25Texas State52South Alabama44Texas StateSouth Alabama -6.5Texas State57.0Over
202211/12South Alabama38Texas State21South AlabamaSouth Alabama -16South Alabama46.0Over
202110/09Texas State33South Alabama31Texas StateSouth Alabama -4Texas State52.5Over
202010/17South Alabama30Texas State20South AlabamaSouth Alabama -4.5South Alabama57.5Under
201911/09Texas State30South Alabama28Texas StateTexas State -7South Alabama41.0Over
201809/15South Alabama41Texas State31South AlabamaSouth Alabama -10Push49.0Over
201510/24Texas State36South Alabama18Texas StateTexas State -5Texas State63.0Under
201411/15South Alabama24Texas State20South AlabamaSouth Alabama -4Push0
201310/26Texas State33South Alabama31Texas StateSouth Alabama -1Texas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State656 Overs
South Alabama432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 16 - 23 - 13 - 1
Road Teams1 - 92 - 61 - 31 - 3

(#68) South Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.23 #68
Offense Rating: 16.39 #49
Defense Rating: 18.62 #94
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #76
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #74
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81
Talent Rating: 534.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


South Alabama Notes
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(7/12) Decimated by portal, net loss of talent
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 4 portals. Looks good
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama     Ratings Matchup     Texas State
Power #68
#68
Off #49
#70
Def #94
#74
Talent #100
#98
SP+ #76
#92
SP+ Off #74
#65
SP+ Def #81
#111

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat South Alabama last year (45-38)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2023 (52-44)
South Alabama beat Texas State in 2022 (38-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | TXST
Depth Chart: USA | TXST
Rosters: USA | TXST
(#68) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.215 #68
Offense Rating: 13.59 #70
Defense Rating: 15.82 #74
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111
Talent Rating: 540.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Texas State Notes
(7/13) QB1? 4 guys will battle, Jackson & 3 portals
(6/11) RB Pare has 2K yds & 20 total TDs in his career
(5/23) New OC Keopple downgrade Leftwich (T Tech)
(3/24) RB Pare (#2 LY) looks good, Burrell (UNLV)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Dawn/Sparks exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 1 portal, some depth
(3/24) Def fell apart late LY, replacing most everyone
(3/24) Def portals 5 DL, 4 LB, 5 DBs. Will take time
(3/24) Kinne great HC, but has a ton to replace TY


  
South Alabama's OC Paul Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport487961%604317.6
Zach Pyron (Tr)356554%409236.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock15283275.559
Bishop Davenport3716114.450
Zach Pyron (Tr)3611543.220
PJ Martin139817.545
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin34407012.028
Kentrel Bullock15153110.228
Anthony Eager10133213.338
Miller McCrumby (Tr)117907.213

View South Alabama's Full Roster
South Alabama's DC Will Windham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick1018232
Darius McKenzie724104
Wesley Miller592004
Ed Smith IV234230
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Thomas194300
Parker Shattuck113301
Blayne Myrick1018232
Ed Smith IV234230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Miller592004
Darius McKenzie724104
Blayne Myrick1018232

Texas State's OC Landon Keopple
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nate Yarnell (Tr)9816759%10561056.3
Brad Jackson81553%118107.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Greg Burrell (Tr)6637035.642
Torrance Burgess Jr.6036726.157
Brad Jackson2317147.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360
Tiaquelin Mims (Tr)33393111.956
Beau Sparks25271210.824
Lincoln Pare12134011.222

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan521001
Kalil Alexander4011652
Jo'Laison Landry338540
DJ Jackson291001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Jermy Jackson Jr.21110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bobby Crosby181005
Trez Moore263024
Kalil Alexander4011652