South Alabama at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Alabama logo

South Alabama Jaguars at Texas State Bobcats

Texas State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Texas State -9.5 (62.5) (-320)  Open: -9.5 | 63.5
Texas State 49 - South Alabama: 26  (Sun Belt)

 
Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Wind: 13.7 MPH
TXST 2nd straight Home Game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -14.5  (SP+ TXST -15)

Projected Score: USA: 24 - TXST: 38 (62)
TXST Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
USA Travel: 592 miles
Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.5W38–2151.5W38–21ON
Sat 9/6South Alabama vs Tulane+13.5L31–3351.5L31–33OY
Sat 9/13South Alabama at Auburn+26.5L15–3156.5L15–31UY
Sat 9/20South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.5L20–3851.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/27South Alabama at North Texas+13.5L22–3663.5L22–36UN
Sat 10/4South Alabama at Troy-2.5L24–3146.5L24–31ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/14South Alabama vs Arkansas State-8.5L14–1557.5L14–15UN
Thu 10/23South Alabama at Georgia State-5.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Sat 11/1South Alabama vs Louisiana-3.5L22–3152.5L22–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15South Alabama at UL Monroe-4.0W26–1449.5W26–14UY
Sat 11/22South Alabama vs Southern Miss+2.5W42–3553.0W42–35OY
Sat 11/29South Alabama at Texas State+9.5L26–4962.5L26–49ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 4

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.0W52–2758.5W52–27OY
Sat 9/6Texas State at UTSA+4.5W43–3664.5W43–36OY
Sat 9/13Texas State at Arizona State+18.5L15–3461.5L15–34UN
Sat 9/20Texas State vs Nicholls-32.5W35–357.0W35–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas State at Arkansas State-14.0L30–3163.5L30–31UN
Sat 10/11Texas State vs Troy-7.5L41–4853.5L41–48ON
Sat 10/18Texas State at Marshall-3.0L37–4065.5L37–40ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/28Texas State vs James Madison+7.5L20–5255.5L20–52ON
Sat 11/8Texas State at Louisiana-3.5L39–4262.5L39–42ON
Sat 11/15Texas State at Southern Miss+3.0W41–1465.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/22Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.5W31–1459.5W31–14UN
Sat 11/29Texas State vs South Alabama-9.5W49–2662.5W49–26OY
Fri 1/2Texas State vs Rice-19.5W41–1055.5W41–10UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)26.553% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)30.439% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)2938% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Offense1326.525.249.8%4.660.9224421992435.851%49%53%47%14%.34
TXST Defense132928.338.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USA Defense1330.43240.9%3.661.5 - - - - - 48%52%39%43%16%.15
TXST Offense1336.53848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Alabama1329:2021.539%68%8.270.80.91.55.61.6429.3
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Offense1351% (67)53% (4)34.1199.25.832 (14).33 (3)3.57 (6)82% (12)10% (79)1.06 (40)
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USA Defense1348% (38)39% (28) - - - - .09 (53)2.78 (32)71% (51)10% (78)1.05 (98)
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Offense1349% (68)47% (18)19.530243.28.112.521 (51)6 (10).36 (27)1.5 (101)29% (27)33% (49).48 (15)4% (14)2.2 (14)
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USA Defense1352% (98)43% (96) - - - - - - 16 (10).24 (73)1.5 (32)32% (69)30% (55).15 (8)6% (59)1.7 (5)
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -11.71  #109
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 9.74  #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 21.45  #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00  #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7  #114
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0  #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 571.38
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -11.71   Texas State: 2.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -12.7   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.4  #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54  #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 38
South Alabama 24


Projected Total Points: 62
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Texas State49South Alabama26Texas State -9.5Texas State62.5Over
202411/29South Alabama38Texas State45Texas State -2.5Texas State60.5Over
202311/25Texas State52South Alabama44South Alabama -6.5Texas State57.0Over
202211/12South Alabama38Texas State21South Alabama -16South Alabama46.0Over
202110/09Texas State33South Alabama31South Alabama -4Texas State52.5Over
202010/17South Alabama30Texas State20South Alabama -4.5South Alabama57.5Under
201911/09Texas State30South Alabama28Texas State -7South Alabama41.0Over
201809/15South Alabama41Texas State31South Alabama -10Push49.0Over
201510/24Texas State36South Alabama18Texas State -5Texas State63.0Under
201411/15South Alabama24Texas State20South Alabama -4Push0
201310/26Texas State33South Alabama31South Alabama -1Texas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State767 Overs
South Alabama432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 17 - 24 - 13 - 1
Road Teams1 - 102 - 71 - 31 - 4

(#109) USA at (#74) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSATXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #109 #74
SP+SP+ #114 #65
Perf GradeGrade #110 #35
OffenseOff #92 #35
DefenseDef #112 #49
Spec TeamsST #94 #73
TalentTal #103 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #65
South Alabama Notes
(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
South Alabama on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #92 #49
SuccessSuc #9 #31
ExplosiveExp #76 #107
PPAPPA #5 #50
PowerPwr #89 #95
SP+SP+ #82 #117
Pts POPPO #13 #33
HavocHav #39 #26
South Alabama Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #6 #49
Run SuccessRSuc #4 #21
Run ExplRExp #40 #123
PPAExp #3 #67
Run BlockR Blk #135 -
OL YdsOLY #6 #60
Stuff RateStuff #18 #31
TackleTak -  #118
South Alabama Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #113 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #18 #54
Pass ExplPExl #101 #62
PPAExp #27 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #8
F7 HavocF7 #79 #7
DB HavocDB #14 #106
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUSA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #112
SuccessSuc #17 #58
ExplosiveExp #115 #80
PPAPPA #25 #58
PowerPwr #59 #119
SP+SP+ #15 #125
Pts POPPO #72 #56
HavocHav #29 #70
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUSA Def
Run GameRun #17 #131
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #28
Run ExplRExp #110 #98
PPAExp #49 #53
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #32
Stuff RateStuff #23 #85
TackleTak -  #124
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUSA Def
Pass GamePass #42 #46
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #96
Pass ExplPExl #91 #32
PPAExp #13 #73
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #131
F7 HavocF7 #35 #78
DB HavocDB #44 #59
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 81° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Texas State -9.5 (62.5)
Texas State won vs South Alabama this year (49-26)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat South Alabama last year (49-26)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (45-38)
Texas State beat South Alabama in 2023 (52-44)

  
USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport20029468%20721267.0
Jared Hollins121675%101106.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock2181085145.064
Keenan Phillips12662234.954
Bishop Davenport11632692.856
PJ Martin6032625.438
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin67775411.665
Jeremy Scott24417417.474
Anthony Eager4033918.548
Miller McCrumby (Tr)1512808.532

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick846033
Christopher Wallace Jr.734000
Darius McKenzie714111
Tirrell Johnson Jr.546131
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Thomas163220
Nathan Jennings132200
Achilles Woods122110
Darius McKenzie714111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Ty Goodwill355007
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)272005

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2111129125.463
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Lincoln Pare3731128.432
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne1017232
Ryan Nolan723022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)521020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4812550
Donterry Russell (Tr)186401
Kenard Snyder (Tr)359320
Treylin Payne1017232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)244104
Amarion Atwood292023
Bobby Crosby593203