James Madison at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
James Madison logo   James Madison Dukes at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Tuesday, October 28th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
James Madison -7.5 (55.5) (-270)  Open: -6.5 | 59.5
James Madison 52 - Texas State: 20  (Sun Belt)

 
Dukes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (34 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.1 - 1.9 (#2)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
JMU coming off BYE
TXST coming off BYE
Our Line: James Madison -4.5  (SP+ JMU -10)

Projected Score: JMU: 31 - TXST: 27 (58)
JMU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
JMU Travel: 1236 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
 
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 James Madison vs Weber State-26.554.5W 45 - 10OY
Fri 9/5 James Madison at Louisville+15.057.0L 14 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 James Madison at Liberty-7.546.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.554.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 10/4 James Madison at Georgia State-19.552.5W 14 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 James Madison vs Louisiana-18.544.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/18 James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.047.5W 63 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 James Madison at Texas State-7.555.5W 52 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 James Madison at Marshall-13.553.5W 35 - 23ON
Sat 11/15 James Madison vs App State-21.053.5W 58 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 James Madison vs Washington State-15.044.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/29 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.054.5W 59 - 10OY
Fri 12/5 James Madison vs Troy-24.547.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 12/20 James Madison at Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-19.555.5W 41 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)37.147% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)18.434% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)2938% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Offense1337.134.143.6%3.930.7214101942164.952%48%47%40%14%.16
TXST Defense132928.338.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Defense1318.421.733.9%3.642.5 - - - - - 46%54%34%34%20%.03
TXST Offense1336.53848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
James Madison1331:4520.841%40%754.80.72.57.13.2632.9
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Offense1352% (54)47% (29)39.8193.74.920 (67).17 (45)3.28 (30)72% (82)10% (61)0.98 (58)
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Defense1346% (19)34% (5) - - - - (14)2.46 (5)65% (26)13% (15)1.07 (106)
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Offense1348% (79)40% (87)17.829.3215.97.412.228 (15)4 (1).18 (99)1.5 (103)31% (61)29% (95).26 (95)4% (18)2.1 (38)
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Defense1354% (116)34% (3) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (10)1.8 (118)40% (1)26% (18).16 (11)7% (24)2.3 (125)
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 1.73  #59
James Madison's Offense Rating: 13.81  #63
James Madison's Defense Rating: 12.08  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 482.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
James Madison's 2025 Expected Record: 12.1 - 1.9
James Madison's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.3  #27
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #18
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 1.73   Texas State: 2.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 12.3   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.4  #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54  #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.1
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

James Madison's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
James Madison 31
Texas State 27


Projected Total Points: 58
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/28Texas State20James Madison52James Madison -7.5James Madison55.5Over
202210/01James Madison40Texas State13James Madison -22James Madison51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State002 Overs
James Madison220 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#59) JMU at (#74) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJMUTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #59 #74
SP+SP+ #27 #65
Perf GradeGrade #10 #35
OffenseOff #32 #35
DefenseDef #9 #49
Spec TeamsST #50 #73
TalentTal #120 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #65
James Madison Notes
(12/6) Sun Belt champs, beat Troy. Could be CFP bound?
(12/5) Hiring Billy Napier (UF) after Chesney took UCLA job
(12/4) Only its 4th FBS season & could make CFP. Incredible
(12/3) HC Bob Chesney has taken UCLA job, will coach '25
(10/29) Just murdering SBC, very much a G5 CFP threat
(10/22) Leads CFB in Defensive Success Rate, Off Good
(10/21) Off shredded ODU for 624, 311 rushing, 12-16 on 3rd
(9/20) Good W @ Liberty, Def incredible. Run Off good
(9/5) QB Barnett holds too long, not pocket aware
(9/5) Def front 7 dominant. Shut down Louisville
(9/2) QB Barnett started opener, Run Off mauled FCS
(8/25) QB Barnett cleared to play, is a top SBC QB
James Madison Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
James Madison on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #32 #49
SuccessSuc #61 #31
ExplosiveExp #104 #107
PPAPPA #88 #50
PowerPwr #63 #95
SP+SP+ #18 #117
Pts POPPO #66 #33
HavocHav #35 #26
James Madison Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #8 #49
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #21
Run ExplRExp #58 #123
PPAExp #45 #67
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #30 #60
Stuff RateStuff #33 #31
TackleTak -  #118
James Madison Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #96 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #87 #54
Pass ExplPExl #103 #62
PPAExp #99 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #43 #8
F7 HavocF7 #61 #7
DB HavocDB #18 #106
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffJMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #9
SuccessSuc #17 #1
ExplosiveExp #115 #125
PPAPPA #25 #4
PowerPwr #59 #56
SP+SP+ #15 #39
Pts POPPO #72 #53
HavocHav #29 #8
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffJMU Def
Run GameRun #17 #9
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #5
Run ExplRExp #110 #106
PPAExp #49 #14
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #5
Stuff RateStuff #23 #9
TackleTak -  #20
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffJMU Def
Pass GamePass #42 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #3
Pass ExplPExl #91 #118
PPAExp #13 #10
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #19
F7 HavocF7 #35 #15
DB HavocDB #44 #24
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
James Madison 7.5 (55.5)
James Madison won at Texas State this year (52-20)

Previous Matchups
James Madison beat Texas State last year (52-20)

  
JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Matthew Sluka (Tr)81173%100329.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight207137396.673
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Jordan Fuller (Tr)8241555.126
Jobi Malary4334948.173
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Nick DeGennaro (Tr)28500517.976
Wayne Knight4039719.957
Jaylan Sanchez (Tr)30396113.280

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Lyle Hemphill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trent Hendrick967323
Tyler Brown715105
Jacob Thomas653237
Drew Spinogatti517163
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West4614774
Xavier Holmes (Tr)317664
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Trent Hendrick967323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale3630112
Justin Eaglin350008
Elijah Culp (Tr)444017

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2111129125.463
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Lincoln Pare3731128.432
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne1017232
Ryan Nolan723022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)521020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4812550
Donterry Russell (Tr)186401
Kenard Snyder (Tr)359320
Treylin Payne1017232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)244104
Amarion Atwood292023
Bobby Crosby593203