UL Monroe at Texas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UL Monroe logo   UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (5:00 PM EST)
Texas State -20.5 (59.5) (-1600)  Open: -17.5
Texas State 31 - UL Monroe: 14  (Sun Belt)

 
Warhawks (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bryant Vincent (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -19  (SP+ TXST -24)

Projected Score: ULM: 20 - TXST: 39 (59)
TXST Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
ULM Travel: 391 miles
Bobcats (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
UL Monroe's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UL Monroe vs St. Francis (PA)-31.047.0W 29 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 UL Monroe at Alabama+34.050.0L 0 - 73ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UL Monroe at UTEP+5.547.5W 31 - 25OY
Sat 9/27 UL Monroe vs Arkansas State-1.555.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/4 UL Monroe at Northwestern+12.543.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina-3.046.5L 8 - 23UN
Sat 10/18 UL Monroe vs Troy+4.545.5L 14 - 37ON
Sat 10/25 UL Monroe at Southern Miss+14.048.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/1 UL Monroe vs Old Dominion+16.555.5L 6 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 UL Monroe vs South Alabama+4.049.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 UL Monroe at Texas State+20.559.5L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/29 UL Monroe at Louisiana+10.547.5L 27 - 30OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 3

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-19.555.5W 41 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 4

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ULM#94 (.15)37% (121)16.640% (102)2.93 (87)17333% (128)1353.33 (117)#89 (.2)47% (120)31.953% (134)39% (53)4.12 (99)43.31.31.1
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)2938% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ULM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ULM Offense1216.615.437.4%3.331.3153081731354.662%37%40%33%15%.15
TXST Defense132928.338.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ULM Defense1231.93946.9%4.121.1 - - - - - 57%42%53%39%13%.2
TXST Offense1336.53848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UL Monroe1230:4615.333%67%5.943.31.31.14.21.5130.3
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ULM Offense1262% (6)40% (102)37.8172.84.617 (84).16 (54)2.93 (87)74% (64)10% (75)1.12 (15)
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ULM Defense1257% (127)53% (134) - - - - .24 (122)3.48 (129)89% (133)8% (117)0.89 (26)
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ULM Offense1237% (128)33% (128)11.220.5134.86.612.111 (122)12 (85).14 (110)1.9 (8)34% (118)28% (106).27 (92)5% (26)2 (87)
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ULM Defense1242% (6)39% (53) - - - - - - 6 (109).17 (38)1.5 (20)29% (110)30% (53).27 (50)5% (111)1.8 (17)
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -11.68  #108
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 5.64  #116
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 17.32  #96
2025 Talent Rating: 398.00  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
UL Monroe's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UL Monroe's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.6  #131
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #127
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -11.68   Texas State: 2.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -21.6   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.4  #74
Texas State's Offense Rating: 14.54  #59
Texas State's Defense Rating: 17.04  #95
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

UL Monroe's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 39
UL Monroe 20


Projected Total Points: 59
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Texas State31UL Monroe14Texas State -20.5UL Monroe59.5Under
202411/09UL Monroe17Texas State38Texas State -9.5Texas State50.0Over
202310/14Texas State21UL Monroe20Texas State -18.5UL Monroe64.5Under
202211/05UL Monroe31Texas State30Louisiana Monroe -2.5Texas State52.5Over
202111/06Texas State27UL Monroe19Texas State -3Texas State57.5Under
202009/19UL Monroe17Texas State38Texas State -3Texas State58.0Under
201910/10Texas State14UL Monroe24Louisiana Monroe -3.5UL Monroe60.5Under
201810/20UL Monroe20Texas State14Louisiana Monroe -10.5Texas State60.0Under
201710/07Texas State27UL Monroe45Louisiana Monroe -6UL Monroe55.0Over
201610/15UL Monroe40Texas State34Louisiana Monroe -4.5UL Monroe66.5Over
201511/19Texas State16UL Monroe3Texas State -5Texas State58.5Under
201410/25UL Monroe18Texas State22Louisiana Monroe -2Texas State0
201310/12Texas State14UL Monroe21Texas State -6UL Monroe0
200009/29UL Monroe7Texas State27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State874 Overs
UL Monroe667 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 73 - 103 - 60 - 4
Road Teams7 - 710 - 34 - 06 - 3

(#108) ULM at (#74) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatULMTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #108 #74
SP+SP+ #131 #65
Perf GradeGrade #93 #35
OffenseOff #71 #35
DefenseDef #70 #49
Spec TeamsST #99 #73
TalentTal #126 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #65
UL Monroe Notes
(10/24) QB1 & QB2 Armenta & Herring doubtful vs So Miss
(10/12) Off has flushed, bad L @ C Car, 15 pts last 2 games
(10/9) Lost both kickers, holding search on campus
(9/21) Run Off better vs UTEP, QB Armenta still JAG-
(9/17) Offense is awful, no expl and can't protect QB
(9/17) Best Off weapon is small body RB McReynolds
(8/28) QB1 Armenta JAG- arm, has some mobility
(8/1) Can ULM get any QB play to help Run Off?
(8/1) RB McReynolds, P-Smith & watch for Fr D Ford
(8/1) Slow, run heavy Off (62%) to shorten, help D
(8/1) Secondary looks decent, Run Def awful again
(7/13) Smaller Def wore down LY, bigger in '25
UL Monroe Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
UL Monroe on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #71 #49
SuccessSuc #121 #31
ExplosiveExp #15 #107
PPAPPA #94 #50
PowerPwr #116 #95
SP+SP+ #127 #117
Pts POPPO #117 #33
HavocHav #48 #26
UL Monroe Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #56 #49
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #21
Run ExplRExp #15 #123
PPAExp #54 #67
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #60
Stuff RateStuff #63 #31
TackleTak -  #118
UL Monroe Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #107 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #128 #54
Pass ExplPExl #8 #62
PPAExp #110 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #4 #8
F7 HavocF7 #75 #7
DB HavocDB #26 #106
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffULM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #35 #70
SuccessSuc #17 #120
ExplosiveExp #115 #6
PPAPPA #25 #89
PowerPwr #59 #96
SP+SP+ #15 #123
Pts POPPO #72 #99
HavocHav #29 #120
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffULM Def
Run GameRun #17 #56
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #134
Run ExplRExp #110 #26
PPAExp #49 #122
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #129
Stuff RateStuff #23 #127
TackleTak -  #48
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffULM Def
Pass GamePass #42 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #53
Pass ExplPExl #91 #20
PPAExp #13 #38
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #65
F7 HavocF7 #35 #117
DB HavocDB #44 #111
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Texas State -20.5 (59.5)
Texas State won vs UL Monroe this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UL Monroe last year (31-14)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2024 (38-17)
Texas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (21-20)

  
ULM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Armenta14725258%16191286.4
Landon Graves194048%185224.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachary Palmer-Smith11566045.756
Braylon McReynolds (Tr)12461435.074
Dorian Lewis2719507.272
Tyrell Reed Jr. (Tr)3513703.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Bibbs26383314.768
Nic Trujillo (Tr)23368416.052
JP Coulter21234011.139
Jacob Godfrey16191211.937

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Earnest Hill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Flemmings8010321
Jabari Tiller468301
Seidrion Langston363000
Marcus Ross (Tr)356220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
Dylan Howell195440
Noah Flemmings8010321
Kevontay Wells334340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
David Godsey Jr.260005
Jyren Ester193004

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2111129125.463
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Lincoln Pare3731128.432
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne1017232
Ryan Nolan723022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)521020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4812550
Donterry Russell (Tr)186401
Kenard Snyder (Tr)359320
Treylin Payne1017232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)244104
Amarion Atwood292023
Bobby Crosby593203