Buffalo at Bowling Green - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bowling Green -2.5 (44.5) (-130) Open: -1.5
Buffalo 28 - Bowling Green: 3 (Mid-American)

Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -7 (SP+ BUFF -5)
Projected Score: BUFF: 26 - BGSU: 19 (44)
BGSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 272 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Buffalo at Minnesota	+16.5	45.5	L 10 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)	-37.0	48.0	W 45 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Buffalo at Kent State	-23.5	48.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	Buffalo vs Troy	-5.5	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/27	Buffalo vs UConn	+3.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	53.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Buffalo at Massachusetts	-16.5	47.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/25	Buffalo vs Akron	-10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+2.5	44.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Buffalo at Central Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 19 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/19	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	38.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Fri 11/28	Buffalo vs Ohio	+7.0	44.5	L 26 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Bowling Green vs Lafayette	-21.0	53.0	W 26 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Bowling Green at Cincinnati	+21.5	46.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Bowling Green vs Liberty	+6.0	51.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Bowling Green at Louisville	+26.5	50.5	L 17 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Bowling Green at Ohio	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+10.5	45.5	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Bowling Green vs Central Michigan	-3.0	43.5	L 6 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/25	Bowling Green at Kent State	-7.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	-2.5	44.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/8	Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan	+3.0	49.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18	Bowling Green vs Akron	-2.5	47.5	L 16 - 19	U	N
Tue 11/25	Bowling Green at Massachusetts	-14.0	44.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)	24	38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)	23.5	43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)	20.5	41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)	24.3	39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	13	24	23.2	39.6%	4.22	1	17	329	153	176	4.2	55%	45%	38%	42%	17%	.17
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	19.5	37.6%	3.47	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	37%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	13	23.5	22.6	42.8%	3.84	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	43%	18%	.17
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	17	42.6%	3.84	0.8	18	341	134	207	4.4	47%	53%	41%	44%	18%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	13	26:20	17.2	34%	52%	4	39.3	1	1.5	6.3	2.2	2	31.2
Bowling Green	13	29:21	18.2	37%	59%	4.8	41.1	0.8	1	4.9	2.2	2	29.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	13	55% (36)	38% (115)	36.2	153.3	4.2	23 (52)	.08 (96)	2.7 (117)	61% (122)	10% (84)	1.11 (17)
BGSU Defense	13	50% (66)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	.17 (94)	3.28 (109)	80% (113)	10% (75)	1.1 (116)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.08 (47)	3.01 (68)	63% (16)	12% (35)	0.94 (45)
BGSU Offense	13	47% (92)	41% (99)	30.6	133.5	4.4	20 (67)	.14 (64)	3.01 (74)	78% (34)	12% (118)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	13	45% (99)	42% (70)	14.2	25.2	175.8	7	12.4	19 (65)	6 (10)	.29 (47)	1.5 (80)	33% (97)	31% (75)	.34 (66)	6% (89)	1.9 (106)
BGSU Defense	13	49% (66)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.11 (19)	1.6 (65)	34% (31)	24% (3)	.15 (9)	6% (69)	2 (46)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	13	53% (109)	43% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.28 (91)	1.7 (97)	32% (58)	29% (40)	.18 (18)	7% (38)	2.2 (100)
BGSU Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (38)	18.7	28.4	207.3	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	6 (10)	.28 (53)	1.4 (127)	32% (86)	32% (67)	.29 (85)	5% (53)	1.8 (128)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -8.77 #95
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 4.27 #121
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 13.04 #63
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #95
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.77 Bowling Green: -14.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5 Bowling Green: -12.6

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -14.92 #133
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 0.09 #133
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 22.33 #125
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6 #113
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 26
Bowling Green 19

Projected Total Points: 44

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Bowling Green	3	Buffalo	28	Bowling Green -2.5	Buffalo	44.5	Under
2023	10/14	Buffalo	14	Bowling Green	24	Buffalo -3	Bowling Green	44.5	Under
2022	10/08	Bowling Green	7	Buffalo	38	Buffalo -2	Buffalo	55.5	Under
2021	10/30	Buffalo	44	Bowling Green	56	Buffalo -13.5	Bowling Green	51.5	Over
2020	11/17	Bowling Green	17	Buffalo	42	Buffalo -31.5	Bowling Green	57.5	Over
2019	11/29	Buffalo	49	Bowling Green	7	Buffalo -28	Buffalo	53.5	Over
2018	11/23	Bowling Green	14	Buffalo	44	Buffalo -16	Buffalo	62.0	Under
2017	11/07	Buffalo	38	Bowling Green	28	Buffalo -7	Buffalo	61.0	Over
2016	11/25	Bowling Green	27	Buffalo	19	Bowling Green -11	Buffalo	60.0	Under
2015	10/03	Buffalo	22	Bowling Green	28	Bowling Green -6.5	Buffalo	67.5	Under
2014	10/04	Bowling Green	36	Buffalo	35	Bowling Green -5	Buffalo	0
2013	11/29	Buffalo	7	Bowling Green	24	Bowling Green -3.5	Bowling Green	52.0	Under
2012	11/23	Bowling Green	21	Buffalo	7
2011	11/25	Buffalo	28	Bowling Green	42
2010	10/02	Bowling Green	26	Buffalo	28
2009	11/03	Buffalo	29	Bowling Green	30
2008	11/21	Bowling Green	34	Buffalo	40
2007	11/17	Buffalo	17	Bowling Green	31
2006	09/09	Bowling Green	48	Buffalo	40
2005	10/15	Buffalo	7	Bowling Green	27
2001	09/08	Bowling Green	35	Buffalo	0
2000	09/22	Buffalo	20	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	13	4	4 Overs
Buffalo	9	8	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 14	4 - 8	2 - 5	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 8	8 - 4	3 - 2	5 - 2

(#95) BUFF at (#133) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#95	#133
SP+SP+	#95	#113
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#102
OffenseOff	#80	#104
DefenseDef	#36	#88
Spec TeamsST	#23	#77
TalentTal	#109	#112
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Buffalo Notes(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report

Bowling Green Notes(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#88
SuccessSuc	#104	#15
ExplosiveExp	#41	#98
PPAPPA	#77	#43
PowerPwr	#121	#125
SP+SP+	#118	#83
Pts POPPO	#41	#32
HavocHav	#91	#73

Buffalo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#111	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#29
Run ExplRExp	#17	#116
PPAExp	#96	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#117	#109
Stuff RateStuff	#96	#103
TackleTak	-	#62

Buffalo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#20
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#65
PPAExp	#47	#19
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#58	#47
F7 HavocF7	#84	#75
DB HavocDB	#89	#69

Bowling Green on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#36
SuccessSuc	#68	#82
ExplosiveExp	#75	#97
PPAPPA	#53	#72
PowerPwr	#133	#63
SP+SP+	#128	#70
Pts POPPO	#77	#74
HavocHav	#104	#33

Bowling Green Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#101	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#71
Run ExplRExp	#30	#45
PPAExp	#64	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#49	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#124	#64
TackleTak	-	#13

Bowling Green Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#131	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#127	#97
PPAExp	#53	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#86	#19
F7 HavocF7	#118	#35
DB HavocDB	#53	#38

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Bowling Green -2.5 (44.5)
Buffalo won at Bowling Green this year (28-3)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Bowling Green last year (28-3)
Bowling Green beat Buffalo in 2023 (24-14)

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	206	356	58%	2520	17	12	7.1
Gunnar Gray	29	53	55%	228	2	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	182	755	6	4.1	41
Terrance Shelton Jr.	57	244	1	4.3	20
Lamar Sperling	39	234	1	6.0	63
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	83	125	3	1.5	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan	61	975	3	16.0	55
Victor Snow	62	815	8	13.1	75
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	36	410	3	11.4	39
Al-Jay Henderson	25	181	1	7.2	22

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1
Miles Greer (Tr)	74	3	3	1	3
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)	70	6	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Malin White	55	9	4	4	0
Junior Poyser	30	5	4	2	0
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Kobi Blackwell	20	7
Solomon Brown	56	5
Keontez Bradley (Tr)	28	4

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)	94	151	62%	882	4	5	5.8
Hunter Najm (Tr)	33	66	50%	473	5	4	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Austyn Dendy (Tr)	108	493	5	4.6	24
Cameron Pettaway	72	365	0	5.1	34
Chris McMillian	84	342	3	4.1	33
Kaderris Roberts	48	215	0	4.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)	37	466	2	12.6	38
RJ Garcia II	27	283	0	10.5	28
Finn Hogan	13	183	0	14.1	24
Jacob Harris	19	182	5	9.6	38

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Steve Morrison (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	0	5
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)	57	6	2	1	1
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Bradley	20	6	5	7	0
Eriq George (Tr)	26	5	4	2	0
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
David Afogho	37	4	3	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)	22	0	0	13
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	7
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	5