Buffalo at Bowling Green Game Matchup
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsBowling Green logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Doyt Perry Stadium - Bowling Green, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#35)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -3.5   (SP+ BUFF -6.5)
Projected Score: BUFF: 27 - BGSU: 23 (52)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 272 miles
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (24 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#88)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Buffalo at Minnesota+18.50.0
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-16
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-16
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy+0.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+1
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-12.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-14.5
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-3.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-6.5
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-10
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+20.5
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+11
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+28
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+9.5
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-2.5
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-10
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo+3.5
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+1.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-8.5
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)28.838% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)26.443% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)27.141% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)21.639% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense1328.82039.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17
BGSU Defense1321.618.537.6%3.471 - - - - - 50%49%39%37%16%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1326.433.742.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
BGSU Offense1327.124.242.6%3.840.8183411342074.447%53%41%44%18%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Bowling Green1329:2118.237%59%4.841.10.814.92.2229.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)
BGSU Defense1350% (66)39% (29) - - - - .17 (94)3.28 (109)80% (113)10% (75)1.1 (116)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
BGSU Offense1347% (92)41% (99)30.6133.54.420 (67).14 (64)3.01 (74)78% (34)12% (118)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)
BGSU Defense1349% (66)37% (20) - - - - - - 11 (52).11 (19)1.6 (65)34% (31)24% (3).15 (9)6% (69)2 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
BGSU Offense1353% (42)44% (38)18.728.4207.37.311.116 (87)6 (10).28 (53)1.4 (127)32% (86)32% (67).29 (85)5% (53)1.8 (128)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -7.85 #87
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 16.29 #78
2025 Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.85   Bowling Green: -11.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.1   Bowling Green: -13.7




Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -11.115 #102
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 7.36 #109
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.89 #103
2025 Talent Rating: 490.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 5.2 - 6.8
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #111
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #121

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 27
Bowling Green 23

Projected Total Points: 52
Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14Buffalo14Bowling Green24Bowling GreenBuffalo -3Bowling Green44.5Under
202210/08Bowling Green7Buffalo38BuffaloBuffalo -2Buffalo55.5Under
202110/30Buffalo44Bowling Green56Bowling GreenBuffalo -13.5Bowling Green51.5Over
202011/17Bowling Green17Buffalo42BuffaloBuffalo -31.5Bowling Green57.5Over
201911/29Buffalo49Bowling Green7BuffaloBuffalo -28Buffalo53.5Over
201811/23Bowling Green14Buffalo44BuffaloBuffalo -16Buffalo62.0Under
201711/07Buffalo38Bowling Green28BuffaloBuffalo -7Buffalo61.0Over
201611/25Bowling Green27Buffalo19Bowling GreenBowling Green -11Buffalo60.0Under
201510/03Buffalo22Bowling Green28Bowling GreenBowling Green -6.5Buffalo67.5Under
201410/04Bowling Green36Buffalo35Bowling GreenBowling Green -5Buffalo0
201311/29Buffalo7Bowling Green24Bowling GreenBowling Green -3.5Bowling Green52.0Under
201211/23Bowling Green21Buffalo7Bowling Green
201111/25Buffalo28Bowling Green42Bowling Green
201010/02Bowling Green26Buffalo28Buffalo
200911/03Buffalo29Bowling Green30Bowling Green
200811/21Bowling Green34Buffalo40Buffalo
200711/17Buffalo17Bowling Green31Bowling Green
200609/09Bowling Green48Buffalo40Bowling Green
200510/15Buffalo7Bowling Green27Bowling Green
200109/08Bowling Green35Buffalo0Bowling Green
200009/22Buffalo20Bowling Green17Buffalo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Bowling Green1344 Overs
Buffalo876 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 134 - 72 - 42 - 3
Road Teams13 - 87 - 43 - 24 - 2

(#87) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.85 #87
Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Defense Rating: 16.29 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78
Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Buffalo Notes
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, confident w/ no portals?
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though
Buffalo     Ratings Matchup     Bowling Green
Power #87
#102
Off #101
#109
Def #78
#103
Talent #94
#108
SP+ #91
#111
SP+ Off #104
#98
SP+ Def #78
#121

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Buffalo in 2023 (24-14)
Buffalo beat Bowling Green in 2022 (38-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | BGSU
Depth Chart: BUFF | BGSU
Rosters: BUFF | BGSU
(#102) Bowling Green Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.115 #102
Offense Rating: 7.36 #109
Defense Rating: 20.89 #103
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #121
Talent Rating: 490.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 5.2 - 6.8

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Bowling Green Notes
(4/7) QB Drew Pyne added (Mizzu), likely QB1
(4/7) QB Lamson (Stan) left when Loeffler (Eagles)
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. Not many options
(3/26) WR rebuild, TE Fannin out. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) OL was bad LY, 3/5 back. 2 portals
(3/26) Def bad LY, replace most. 7 portal adds
(3/26) New HC George 24-22 @ E Tenn St
(3/26) Expect very active portal after spring ball


  
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)3743%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Lamar Sperling3915013.822
Terrance Shelton Jr.238803.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Messiah Burch999011.030
Nik McMillan576115.231

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
Marquis Cooper553018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Khalil Murdock15617241
Malin White213240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Eddie Pleasant III110005

Bowling Green's OC Travis Partridge
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)498260%391334.8
Lucian Anderson III51242%32112.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucian Anderson III196723.519
John Henderson450012.529
Drew Pyne (Tr)152101.410
Mar'Kel Porter41102.88
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Finn Hogan17175010.333
Arlis Boardingham (Tr)1812827.120
Jared Merk115015.015
Donovan Stephens112012.012

View Bowling Green's Full Roster
Bowling Green's DC Brandon Fisher
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley223220
Darius Lorfils221001
Evan Branch-Haynes192010
Kal-El Pascal171030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley223220
Malik Moses10000
Josira Andrews10000
Isaac Hill10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Lorfils221001
Myles Bradley223220
Josira Andrews10000