Buffalo at Kent State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls at Kent State Golden FlashesKent State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Buffalo -23.5 (48.5) (-2800)  Open: 0.0
Buffalo 31 - Kent State: 28  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Buffalo -6  (SP+ BUFF -10)
Projected Score: BUFF: 27 - KENT: 21 (48)
BUFF Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
BUFF Travel: 183 miles
Golden Flashes (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Carney (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 34 (26 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-5.543.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+3.051.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.553.5W 31 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.547.5W 28 - 21ON
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-10.048.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.544.5W 28 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.544.5L 19 - 38ON
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.538.5L 20 - 37ON
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+7.044.5L 26 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Kent State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kent State vs Merrimack-5.550.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Kent State at Texas Tech+48.560.0L 14 - 62OY
Sat 9/13 Kent State vs Buffalo+23.548.5L 28 - 31OY
Sat 9/20 Kent State at Florida State+44.556.5L 10 - 66ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Kent State at Oklahoma+46.553.5L 0 - 44UY
Sat 10/11 Kent State vs Massachusetts-1.549.5W 42 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Kent State at Toledo+25.548.5L 10 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 Kent State vs Bowling Green+7.547.5W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Kent State at Ball State+3.048.5L 13 - 17UN
Tue 11/11 Kent State at Akron+7.549.5W 42 - 35OY
Wed 11/19 Kent State vs Central Michigan+7.550.5L 16 - 28UN
Fri 11/28 Kent State at Northern Illinois+5.045.0W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kent State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#117 (.07)39% (108)2439% (108)2.68 (114)13339% (101)2293.5 (88)#49 (.12)39% (36)23.539% (27)40% (46)3.07 (24)45.71.81.3
KENT#113 (.09)36% (126)21.336% (130)2.54 (129)9838% (112)1973.42 (96)#92 (.19)43% (86)33.644% (89)43% (78)4.29 (124)48.81.10.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)38% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)43% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
KENT#131 (.01)30% (134)33% (132)2.57 (128)7829% (134)1552.89 (130)#133 (.35)50% (131)50% (123)51% (130)4.34 (115)35.71.70.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense122423.238.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07
KENT Defense1233.620.642.9%4.290.8 - - - - - 51%47%44%43%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1223.522.639.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
KENT Offense1221.326.236.4%3.421.11429598197352%46%36%38%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Kent State1227:4414.328%47%6.148.81.10.85.82328.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (114)69% (92)9% (64)0.88 (105)
KENT Defense1251% (90)44% (89) - - - - .16 (104)2.95 (78)67% (37)9% (78)1.02 (98)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (81)66% (31)10% (53)0.89 (35)
KENT Offense1252% (45)36% (130)32.998.3310 (132)-.02 (127)2.54 (129)63% (118)13% (129)0.89 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (101)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (100)34% (112)27% (107).28 (75)7% (103)2 (77)
KENT Defense1247% (47)43% (78) - - - - - - 6 (75).26 (78)1.6 (84)32% (62)34% (123).35 (98)5% (122)1.9 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (10)40% (46) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (60)1.6 (98)32% (52)28% (40).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
KENT Offense1246% (94)38% (112)13.624.4197.18.114.520 (61)6 (34).29 (49)1.9 (4)35% (121)24% (129).15 (119)5% (33)2.2 (16)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -8.03  #98
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 0.35  #126
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.38  #72
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7  #100
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #120
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #74

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.03   Kent State: -14.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.7   Kent State: -18.7




Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -14.385  #128
Kent State's Offense Rating: -0.08  #129
Kent State's Defense Rating: 14.99  #111
2025 Talent Rating: 516.00  #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Kent State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kent State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.7  #130
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #124
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.5  #122

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 27
Kent State 21


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Buffalo 31
Kent State 17

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Buffalo 25
Kent State 23

Total Points: 48
Kent State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.2
Defense: 33.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Kent State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Kent State28Buffalo31Buffalo -23.5Kent State48.5Over
202411/26Buffalo43Kent State7Buffalo -23.5Buffalo50.5Under
202310/21Kent State6Buffalo24Buffalo -6.5Buffalo44.0Under
202211/26Buffalo27Kent State30Buffalo -4.5Kent State51.0Over
202110/09Kent State48Buffalo38Kent State -7Kent State66.0Over
202011/28Buffalo70Kent State41Buffalo -7.5Buffalo70.0Over
201911/14Kent State30Buffalo27Buffalo -6Kent State54.5Over
201811/06Buffalo48Kent State14Buffalo -17Buffalo44.5Over
201709/30Kent State13Buffalo27Buffalo -7.5Buffalo41.0Under
201610/08Buffalo20Kent State44Buffalo -2Kent State42.5Over
201511/05Kent State17Buffalo18Buffalo -3Kent State43.5Under
201310/26Kent State21Buffalo41Buffalo -2Buffalo0
201209/19Buffalo7Kent State23
200911/27Kent State6Buffalo9
200811/28Buffalo21Kent State24
200711/24Kent State23Buffalo30
200611/04Buffalo41Kent State14
200511/12Kent State6Buffalo10
200411/06Buffalo7Kent State33
200311/22Kent State34Buffalo24
200210/26Buffalo12Kent State16
200110/20Kent State35Buffalo13
200011/03Buffalo20Kent State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kent State1067 Overs
Buffalo1364 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 147 - 54 - 23 - 3
Road Teams14 - 95 - 73 - 32 - 4

(#98) BUFF at (#128) KENT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFKENT
Power RatePwr #98 #128
SP+SP+ #100 #130
Perf GradeGrade #62 #129
OffenseOff #77 #120
DefenseDef #42 #125
Spec TeamsST #20 #118
TalentTal #109 #115
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Buffalo Notes
(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report
Kent State Notes
(11/28) Beat NIU to finish 4-3. Incredible job by Mark Carney
(11/5) Coaching malpractice by Carney vs Ball St
(11/5) Blew game vs Ball St. Coaching & stupidity
(10/31) Huge W over BG, but BG had no one at QB
(10/31) WR Cade Wolford a name to know, 26.3 ypc, 6 TD
(10/31) QB Deshields can play, just so bad on OL/DL
(10/30) Mark Carney interim no more, permanent HC
(9/13) Off much improved vs Buffalo. Impressive
(9/10) Two QB system w/ Deshields and Montes. Meh
(9/6) Physically does not look like FBS level ball
(8/30) QB DeShields/Montes meh, Run Off awful
(4/11) HC Burns fired, OC Carney Int HC for '25
Kent State Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffKENT Def
Perf GradePerf #77 #125
SuccessSuc #108 #86
ExplosiveExp #104 #91
PPAPPA #117 #92
PowerPwr #126 #111
SP+SP+ #120 #122
Pts POPPO #88 #124
HavocHav #86 #107
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffKENT Def
Run GameRun #112 #123
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #89
Run ExplRExp #105 #98
PPAExp #128 #104
Run BlockR Blk #16 -
OL YdsOLY #114 #78
Stuff RateStuff #67 #82
TackleTak -  #90
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffKENT Def
Pass GamePass #108 #123
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #78
Pass ExplPExl #100 #84
PPAExp #103 #78
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #60
F7 HavocF7 #64 #78
DB HavocDB #103 #122
Kent State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatKENT OffBUFF Def
Perf GradePerf #120 #42
SuccessSuc #126 #36
ExplosiveExp #13 #56
PPAPPA #113 #49
PowerPwr #129 #72
SP+SP+ #124 #74
Pts POPPO #96 #24
HavocHav #118 #75
Kent State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
KENT OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #133 #57
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #27
Run ExplRExp #100 #35
PPAExp #127 #38
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #81
Stuff RateStuff #110 #93
TackleTak -  #20
Kent State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatKENT OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #90 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #112 #46
Pass ExplPExl #4 #98
PPAExp #49 #60
Pass Block/RushP Blk #136 #23
F7 HavocF7 #129 #53
DB HavocDB #33 #95
Program Comparison
KENT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dix Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 77°
Rematch from Week 3
Buffalo 23.5 (48.5)
Buffalo won at Kent State this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Kent State last year (43-7)
Buffalo beat Kent State in 2023 (24-6)
Kent State beat Buffalo in 2022 (30-27)

  
BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)20635658%252017127.1
Gunnar Gray295355%228224.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson18275564.141
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
Lamar Sperling3923416.063
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)8312531.540
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nik McMillan61975316.055
Victor Snow62815813.175
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)36410311.439
Al-Jay Henderson2518117.222

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Dion Crawford795431
Miles Greer (Tr)743313
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)706120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Malin White559440
Junior Poyser305420
Dion Crawford795431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Solomon Brown560005
Keontez Bradley (Tr)280004

KENT's OC Mark Carney (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dru Deshields13624057%20301838.5
CJ Montes (Tr)101953%140117.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Garcia14664734.445
Jordan Nubin (Tr)7925313.225
Jahzae Kimbrough399702.512
Cade Wolford129718.131
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Wolford19509726.879
Dashawn Martin33507415.475
Wayne Harris35383110.942
Ardell Banks12205217.138

View Kent State's Full Roster

KENT's DC Kody Morgan (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Woods9411231
CJ Young898323
Joel Cordoba662011
Jaire Rawlison522106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamond Mathis (Tr)288663
Jelani Davis (Tr)244340
CJ Young898323
A.J. Campbell195211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaire Rawlison522106
Terrell Miller301006
Joel Boamah82003