UConn at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UConn -3 (51.5) (-155) Open: -2.5
UConn 20 - Buffalo: 17

Huskies (9 - 4) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)

BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
BUFF is playing their 5th straight game
CONN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UConn -9.5 (SP+ CONN -15.5)
Projected Score: CONN: 31 - BUFF: 22 (53)
CONN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
CONN Travel: 326 miles

Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
CONN Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UConn's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UConn vs Central Connecticut	-29.5	51.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UConn at Syracuse	+7.0	57.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/13	UConn at Delaware	-8.5	52.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/20	UConn vs Ball State	-21.0	53.5	W 31 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/27	UConn at Buffalo	-3.0	51.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/4	UConn vs Florida International	-7.0	52.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	UConn at Boston College	-2.5	58.5	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/25	UConn at Rice	-10.5	48.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/1	UConn vs UAB	-10.0	61.5	W 38 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/8	UConn vs Duke	+7.5	63.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/15	UConn vs Air Force	-7.5	64.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/22	UConn at Florida Atlantic	-6.0	64.0	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/27	UConn vs Army	+5.5	41.5	L 16 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Buffalo at Minnesota	+16.5	45.5	L 10 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)	-37.0	48.0	W 45 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Buffalo at Kent State	-23.5	48.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	Buffalo vs Troy	-5.5	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/27	Buffalo vs UConn	+3.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	53.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Buffalo at Massachusetts	-16.5	47.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/25	Buffalo vs Akron	-10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+2.5	44.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Buffalo at Central Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 19 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/19	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	38.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Fri 11/28	Buffalo vs Ohio	+7.0	44.5	L 26 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CONN	#13 (.31)	46% (29)	35.3	46% (46)	2.93 (70)	151	47% (25)	277	4.58 (16)	#112 (.22)	47% (126)	27	50% (133)	43% (89)	3.8 (81)	45.5	0.2	1.2
BUFF	#117 (.07)	39% (108)	24	39% (108)	2.68 (114)	133	39% (101)	229	3.5 (88)	#49 (.12)	39% (36)	23.5	39% (27)	40% (46)	3.07 (24)	45.7	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CONN	#67 (.19)	42% (82)		43% (82)	3.07 (58)	184	40% (84)	187	4.09 (51)	#25 (.1)	39% (37)		42% (63)	37% (23)	3.36 (26)	50.4	1.2	1.1
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CONN Offense	13	35.3	33.5	46%	4.58	0.2	20	428	151	277	5.3	45%	54%	46%	47%	12%	.31
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	24.1	39.1%	3.07	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	39%	40%	15%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CONN Defense	13	27	32.2	46.6%	3.8	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	50%	43%	15%	.22
BUFF Offense	12	24	24.6	38.8%	3.5	1.8	19	362	133	229	3.9	45%	53%	39%	39%	16%	.07

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UConn	13	27:00	20.1	42%	72%	4.5	45.5	0.2	1.2	5.8	2.6	0	30.4
Buffalo	12	28:03	19.4	36%	40%	5.4	45.7	1.8	1.3	6.1	2.8	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CONN Offense	13	45% (111)	46% (46)	28.6	150.6	5.3	24 (36)	.21 (28)	2.93 (70)	82% (9)	6% (3)	1.04 (39)
BUFF Defense	12	55% (124)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	.05 (38)	2.96 (81)	66% (31)	10% (53)	0.89 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CONN Defense	13	55% (121)	50% (133)	-	-	-	-	.21 (123)	3.37 (132)	67% (33)	10% (68)	0.95 (68)
BUFF Offense	12	45% (105)	39% (108)	34.4	133.2	3.9	15 (70)	-.03 (128)	2.68 (114)	69% (92)	9% (64)	0.88 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CONN Offense	13	54% (25)	47% (25)	22.8	33.4	277.4	8.3	12.2	30 (14)	1 (1)	.44 (14)	1.6 (51)	32% (74)	29% (84)	.48 (14)	6% (59)	2.5 (1)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (10)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (123)	.23 (60)	1.6 (98)	32% (52)	28% (40)	.17 (18)	5% (95)	1.7 (4)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CONN Defense	13	44% (18)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (55)	.28 (85)	1.6 (69)	26% (132)	33% (116)	.4 (115)	5% (95)	2 (80)
BUFF Offense	12	53% (31)	39% (101)	19.6	34.3	229	6.7	11.7	19 (75)	14 (34)	.19 (103)	1.5 (100)	34% (112)	27% (107)	.28 (75)	7% (103)	2 (77)

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 0.38 #70
UConn's Offense Rating: 17.68 #25
UConn's Defense Rating: 17.30 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7 #45
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #31
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #71

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UConn: 0.38 Buffalo: -5.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UConn: 6.7 Buffalo: -8.7

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.865 #98
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 0.35 #126
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.38 #72
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7 #100
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #120
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #74

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 2
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UConn 31
Buffalo 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Buffalo 32
UConn 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
UConn 29
Buffalo 27

Total Points: 56

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Buffalo	17	UConn	20	UConn -3	NA	51.5	Under
2024	09/28	UConn	47	Buffalo	3	UConn -6	UConn	44.5	Over
2013	09/28	Buffalo	41	UConn	12	Connecticut -2.5	Buffalo	0
2012	09/29	UConn	24	Buffalo	17
2011	09/24	Buffalo	3	UConn	17
2010	09/25	UConn	45	Buffalo	21
2008	01/03	UConn	38	Buffalo	20
2005	09/01	UConn	38	Buffalo	0
2004	11/20	UConn	29	Buffalo	0
2003	09/20	Buffalo	7	UConn	38
2002	09/14	Buffalo	3	UConn	24
2001	09/22	UConn	20	Buffalo	37
2000	09/15	Buffalo	21	UConn	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	2	1	1 Overs
UConn	11	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 6	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 7	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#70) CONN at (#98) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CONN	BUFF
Power RatePwr	#70	#98
SP+SP+	#45	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#33	#62
OffenseOff	#12	#77
DefenseDef	#98	#42
Spec TeamsST	#84	#20
TalentTal	#95	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#101

UConn Notes(12/6) Hires Jason Candle (Toledo HC), Mora to Col St
(10/25) Bad L vs Rice, Def mauled for 300 yds rushing
(10/18) Great W at BC, QB Fagano balled out, 5-2 and rolling
(9/1) Fagano good, Off 600+ yds vs FCS. Good start
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well
UConn Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report

UConn on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#42
SuccessSuc	#29	#36
ExplosiveExp	#27	#56
PPAPPA	#13	#49
PowerPwr	#25	#72
SP+SP+	#31	#74
Pts POPPO	#16	#24
HavocHav	#13	#75

UConn Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#45	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#27
Run ExplRExp	#39	#35
PPAExp	#28	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#39	#93
TackleTak	-	#20

UConn Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#51	#98
PPAExp	#14	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#71	#23
F7 HavocF7	#3	#53
DB HavocDB	#59	#95

Buffalo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CONN Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#98
SuccessSuc	#108	#126
ExplosiveExp	#104	#40
PPAPPA	#117	#112
PowerPwr	#126	#120
SP+SP+	#120	#71
Pts POPPO	#88	#81
HavocHav	#86	#89

Buffalo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#112	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#133
Run ExplRExp	#105	#68
PPAExp	#128	#123
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#132
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#135
TackleTak	-	#109

Buffalo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#68
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#69
PPAExp	#103	#85
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#87
F7 HavocF7	#64	#68
DB HavocDB	#103	#95

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 76° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 5
UConn 3.0 (51.5)
UConn won at Buffalo this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
UConn beat Buffalo last year (47-3)

CONN's OC Gordon Sammis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Fagnano	284	412	69%	3441	28	1	8.4
Ksaan Farrar	11	18	61%	84	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camryn Edwards	210	1240	15	5.9	73
Jayden Brown	32	262	2	8.2	49
Victor Rosa	30	155	2	5.2	31
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman	23	138	1	6.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Bell	101	1276	13	12.6	80
Reymello Murphy (Tr)	39	446	3	11.4	61
John Neider	27	422	2	15.6	45
Javonte Vereen (Tr)	21	305	5	14.5	50

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Matt Brock (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham (Tr)	125	15	10	1	1
Oumar Diomande	116	8	5	5	1
Malachi McLean	79	2	1	1	2
Cam Chadwick	66	3	1	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryun Parham (Tr)	125	15	10	1	1
Oumar Diomande	116	8	5	5	1
Donovan Branch	30	5	4	7	1
Tyquan King (Tr)	41	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Mon Brinson	59	7	0	0	6
Tyrece Mills (Tr)	25	2	0	1	5
Cam Chadwick	66	3	1	2	4

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	206	356	58%	2520	17	12	7.1
Gunnar Gray	29	53	55%	228	2	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	182	755	6	4.1	41
Terrance Shelton Jr.	57	244	1	4.3	20
Lamar Sperling	39	234	1	6.0	63
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	83	125	3	1.5	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan	61	975	3	16.0	55
Victor Snow	62	815	8	13.1	75
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	36	410	3	11.4	39
Al-Jay Henderson	25	181	1	7.2	22

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1
Miles Greer (Tr)	74	3	3	1	3
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)	70	6	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Malin White	55	9	4	4	0
Junior Poyser	30	5	4	2	0
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Kobi Blackwell	20	7
Solomon Brown	56	5
Keontez Bradley (Tr)	28	4