UConn at Buffalo Game Matchup
UConn logo UConn Huskies at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
UB Stadium - Amherst, NY

 
Huskies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (26 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#35)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 9)
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
BUFF is playing their 5th straight game
CONN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UConn -1   (SP+ CONN -1.5)
Projected Score: CONN: 30 - BUFF: 29 (55)
CONN Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
CONN Travel: 326 miles
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#35)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
UConn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 UConn vs Central Connecticut-19.5
Sat 9/6 UConn at Syracuse+12
Sat 9/13 UConn at Delaware-10
Sat 9/20 UConn vs Ball State-21
Sat 9/27 UConn at Buffalo-1
Sat 10/4 UConn vs Florida International-13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 UConn at Boston College+9
Sat 10/25 UConn at Rice-10.5
Sat 11/1 UConn vs UAB-13
Sat 11/8 UConn vs Duke+7.5
Sat 11/15 UConn vs Air Force-10.5
Sat 11/22 UConn at Florida Atlantic-7.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UConn's Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Buffalo at Minnesota+18.50.0
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-16
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-16
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy+0.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+1
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-12.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-14.5
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-3.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-6.5
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CONN#67 (.19)42% (82)31.943% (82)3.07 (58)18440% (84)1874.09 (51)#25 (.1)39% (37)23.142% (63)37% (23)3.36 (26)50.41.21.1
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)28.838% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)26.443% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CONN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CONN Offense1331.92641.8%4.091.2193711841875.254%46%43%40%13%.19
BUFF Defense1326.422.342.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CONN Defense1323.134.439.4%3.361.1 - - - - - 49%51%42%37%17%.1
BUFF Offense1328.838.239.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UConn1327:1619.137%47%550.41.21.15.21.6231.5
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CONN Offense1354% (39)43% (82)35.7184.15.222 (55).18 (40)3.07 (58)77% (39)7% (13)1.03 (45)
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CONN Defense1349% (45)42% (63) - - - - .05 (29)2.76 (31)63% (18)10% (78)0.89 (28)
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CONN Offense1346% (96)40% (84)15.828.6186.86.511.823 (41)9 (48).23 (85)1.5 (114)30% (47)30% (88).29 (86)6% (87)2 (82)
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CONN Defense1351% (84)37% (23) - - - - - - 9 (76).17 (35)1.5 (37)32% (72)26% (17).28 (57)7% (23)2.1 (97)
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: -2.41 #73
UConn's Offense Rating: 13.36 #74
UConn's Defense Rating: 15.77 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 550.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #84
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #86

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 811
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
UConn: -2.41   Buffalo: -4.975

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UConn: -5.4   Buffalo: -7.1




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -4.975 #87
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 16.29 #78
2025 Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


UConn Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UConn 30
Buffalo 29

Projected Total Points: 55
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28UConn47Buffalo3UConnUConn -6UConn44.5Over
201309/28Buffalo41UConn12BuffaloConnecticut -2.5Buffalo0
201209/29UConn24Buffalo17UConn
201109/24Buffalo3UConn17UConn
201009/25UConn45Buffalo21UConn
200801/03UConn38Buffalo20UConn
200509/01UConn38Buffalo0UConn
200411/20UConn29Buffalo0UConn
200309/20Buffalo7UConn38UConn
200209/14Buffalo3UConn24UConn
200109/22UConn20Buffalo37Buffalo
200009/15Buffalo21UConn24UConn
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo211 Overs
UConn1010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 52 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams5 - 70 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#73) UConn Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.41 #73
Offense Rating: 13.36 #74
Defense Rating: 15.77 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #84
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #86
Talent Rating: 550.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.09 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.36 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


UConn Notes
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well
UConn     Ratings Matchup     Buffalo
Power #73
#87
Off #74
#101
Def #75
#78
Talent #96
#94
SP+ #84
#91
SP+ Off #84
#104
SP+ Def #86
#78

Previous Matchups
UConn beat Buffalo last year (47-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: CONN | BUFF
Depth Chart: CONN | BUFF
Rosters: CONN | BUFF
(#87) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.975 #87
Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Defense Rating: 16.29 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78
Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Buffalo Notes
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, confident w/ no portals?
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though


  
UConn's OC Gordon Sammis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Evers9718054%918555.1
Tucker McDonald3560%20004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Edwards14683085.771
Jayden Brown9857825.952
Nick Evers8024533.123
Victor Rosa167214.529
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Skyler Bell50860517.270
TJ Sheffield5450539.458
Chris Parker (Tr)29360312.444
Jasaiah Gathings3230739.626

View UConn's Full Roster
UConn's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden McDonald12510483
Tyquan King (Tr)1116360
Tui Faumuina-Brown9111576
Rante Jones562032
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tui Faumuina-Brown9111576
Jayden McDonald12510483
Tyquan King (Tr)1116360
Aaron Key102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tui Faumuina-Brown9111576
Cam Chadwick471016
D'Mon Brinson484004

Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)3743%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Lamar Sperling3915013.822
Terrance Shelton Jr.238803.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Messiah Burch999011.030
Nik McMillan576115.231

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
Marquis Cooper553018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Khalil Murdock15617241
Malin White213240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Eddie Pleasant III110005