Buffalo at Central Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls at Central Michigan ChippewasCentral Michigan logo
Wednesday, November 12th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Kelly/Shorts Stadium - Mount Pleasant, MI  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (21 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
BUFF coming off BYE
CMU coming off BYE
Our Line: Buffalo -14.5   (SP+ BUFF -17.5)

Projected Score: BUFF: 32 - CMU: 18 (50)
BUFF Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
BUFF Travel: 304 miles
Chippewas (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Matt Drinkall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 12 - 41 (12 - 41 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-6.042.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+6
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-16
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-17
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-4
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-14.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-10
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio-3.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Central Michigan at San José State+11.550.5W 16 - 14UY
Sat 9/6 Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.548.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Central Michigan at Michigan+27.542.5L 3 - 63ON
Sat 9/20 Central Michigan vs Wagner-2
Sat 9/27 Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan+1
Sat 10/4 Central Michigan at Akron+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Central Michigan at Bowling Green+13
Sat 10/25 Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-5
Sat 11/1 Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Central Michigan vs Buffalo+14.5
Wed 11/19 Central Michigan at Kent State+4.5
Sat 11/29 Central Michigan vs Toledo+27

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#73 (.19)41% (91)28.745% (62)3.02 (67)18635% (113)1864.58 (43)#79 (.15)40% (74)1934% (32)46% (105)2.3 (27)38.71.31
CMU#122 (.05)33% (130)1234% (122)2.69 (100)12232% (124)1173.58 (89)#125 (.34)48% (121)40.745% (99)52% (124)4.7 (114)3811.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)38% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)43% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
CMU#96 (.15)39% (115)42% (88)3.2 (41)16934% (124)1633.82 (80)#96 (.21)40% (44)41% (48)39% (50)3.6 (45)60.920.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense328.720.540.8%4.581.3213721861864.860%39%45%35%11%.19
CMU Defense340.740.748.5%4.71.7 - - - - - 40%59%45%52%10%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense31925.540.2%2.31 - - - - - 47%53%34%46%12%.15
CMU Offense3121232.9%3.58114239122117363%37%34%32%17%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo327:0921.343%50%3.738.71.316.73032.3
Central Michigan332:2713.731%44%5.73811.720.7030.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense360% (18)45% (62)38.7185.74.86 (49).17 (55)3.02 (67)83% (28)6% (23)0.97 (65)
CMU Defense340% (12)45% (99) - - - - .19 (106)3 (91)67% (53)3% (135)1.02 (84)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense347% (53)34% (32) - - - - -.1 (20)2.93 (84)75% (80)7% (117)0.65 (9)
CMU Offense363% (11)34% (122)41.312232 (109)- (108)2.69 (100)70% (79)13% (125)0.95 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense339% (120)35% (113)1727.31866.810.95 (54)3 (92).28 (72)1.6 (48)29% (56)30% (81).25 (87)5% (63)1.4 (126)
CMU Defense359% (124)52% (124) - - - - - - 4 (12).5 (120)1.6 (83)28% (113)40% (126).69 (130)7% (48)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense353% (87)46% (105) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (113)1.6 (90)34% (57)32% (85).27 (71)6% (76)1.6 (23)
CMU Offense337% (125)32% (124)1320117.35.991 (123)1 (23).15 (103)1.5 (79)40% (129)17% (130).16 (109)4% (51)2.2 (45)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -4.16 #89
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 5.28 #102
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 9.44 #79
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #89
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.16   Central Michigan: -19.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -5.5   Central Michigan: -22.9




Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -19.135 #130
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 1.25 #129
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 21.66 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 514.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Central Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Central Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.9 #132
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #132
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.5
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 32
Central Michigan 18


Total Points: 50

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 12 PPG
Offense at Home: 12
Defense: 40.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 40.7

Central Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/07Buffalo37Central Michigan13BuffaloCentral Michigan -2.5Buffalo51.5Under
202211/09Central Michigan31Buffalo27Central MichiganCentral Michigan -3Central Michigan54.0Over
201910/26Buffalo43Central Michigan20BuffaloBuffalo -1.5Buffalo46.5Over
201810/06Central Michigan24Buffalo34BuffaloBuffalo -6.5Buffalo52.0Over
201510/17Central Michigan51Buffalo14Central MichiganCentral Michigan -7Central Michigan55.5Over
201410/25Buffalo14Central Michigan20Central MichiganCentral Michigan -1.5Central Michigan0
200910/03Buffalo13Central Michigan20Central Michigan
200809/27Central Michigan27Buffalo25Central Michigan
200611/24Buffalo28Central Michigan55Central Michigan
200411/13Buffalo36Central Michigan6Buffalo
200109/29Buffalo8Central Michigan16Central Michigan
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Central Michigan734 Overs
Buffalo431 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 54 - 23 - 01 - 2
Road Teams5 - 62 - 42 - 10 - 3

(#89) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -4.16 #89
Offense Rating: 5.28 #102
Defense Rating: 9.44 #79
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #89
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Good Run Def Success 34%
Poor Pass Def Success 46%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Buffalo has lost 6 straight
Buffalo has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Buffalo Notes
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though

Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#19)

Buffalo Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Buffalo defense is really good in red zone (#27)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)

Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo pass game is really bad (#113)
Buffalo Does Not Stuff Runs (#124)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCMUBUFF
OverallOver#110#44
OffenseOff#104#43
DefenseDef#106#60
Special TeamsST#71#32
PassingPass#88#67
RushingRush#89#71
Run BlockRBLK#113#19
Pass BlockPBLK#120#30
Route RunningWR Rt#50#69
TacklingTkl#99#33
Run DefenseR Def#106#41
Pass Rush DefPRush#72#38
Coverage DefCov#111#88

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (37-13)
Central Michigan beat Buffalo in 2022 (31-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | CMU
Depth Chart: BUFF | CMU
Rosters: BUFF | CMU
(#130) Central Michigan Info
Power Rating: -19.135 #130
Offense Rating: 1.25 #129
Defense Rating: 21.66 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.9 #132
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #132
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #124
Talent Rating: 514.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 37%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 33%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Awful Pass Success 32%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.7 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Central Michigan has lost 8 straight
Central Michigan has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Central Michigan Notes
(8/25) QB1 - Joe Labas starting, inj after 6 starts LY
(7/28) Is Drinkall running Army offense?
(6/12) Skill positions very weak on paper. Risers?
(3/26) QB Labas PT starter LY, Glasser has exp
(3/26) RB rebuild, Cornist (Tul) added, some depth
(3/26) WR complete rebuild, 13 rec back. No portals
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, meh LY. 4 portals, 3 via Valpo
(3/26) Def bad LY, return some. 3 portals
(3/26) New HC Drinkall was Army OL coach.
(3/26) New OC Chapin had success at E Wash

Central Michigan Highlights
Central Michigan defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Central Michigan Deficiencies
Central Michigan has a really bad Offense
Central Michigan has a really bad Offense at Home
Central Michigan Can Not Run the Ball (#102)
Central Michigan offense is really bad (#130)
Central Michigan run game is really bad (#122)
Central Michigan pass game is really bad (#124)
Central Michigan offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Central Michigan Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Central Michigan does not Sack the QB (#122)
Central Michigan has a bad defense (#121)
Central Michigan has a bad red zone defense (#114)


  
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)508063%558527.0
Gunnar Gray1250%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson5019834.038
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)2815825.640
James McNeil Jr.106616.626
Lamar Sperling135003.87
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow11168315.340
Nik McMillan10148114.838
Chance Morrow699116.526
Al-Jay Henderson108008.022

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock323100
Miles Greer (Tr)221001
Dion Crawford200010
Solomon Brown180002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Saveon Brown133222
Khalil Murdock323100
Kobe Stewart62120
Junior Poyser41110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Saveon Brown133222
Solomon Brown180002
Jalen McNair151012

Central Michigan's OC Jim Chapin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Labas203263%181115.7
Angel H Flores121867%93005.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Cornist (Tr)3112814.129
Angel H Flores3012404.120
Nahree Biggins2811404.117
Brock Townsend6801.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tommy Mcintosh585017.047
Justin Ruffin Jr.64207.018
Langston Lewis339013.021
Tyson Davis63606.013

View Central Michigan's Full Roster
Central Michigan's DC Sean Cronin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Kwiatkowski171001
Elijah Gordon160001
Dakota Cochran150010
Caleb Spann150002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Heldman82100
Fernando Sanchez III81110
Jordan Kwiatkowski171001
Keshawn Hayden40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Spann150002
Kalen Carroll (Tr)140002
Daniel Bennett30002