Buffalo at Central Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview

Buffalo Bulls at Central Michigan Chippewas

Wednesday, November 12th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Central Michigan -2.5 (44.5) (-130) Open: -2.5 | 43.5
Central Michigan 38 - Buffalo: 19 (Mid-American)

Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

BUFF coming off BYE
CMU coming off BYE
Our Line: Central Michigan -5 (SP+ CMU -3)
Projected Score: BUFF: 20 - CMU: 25 (46)
CMU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 304 miles

Chippewas (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Matt Drinkall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
CMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Buffalo at Minnesota	+16.5	45.5	L 10 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)	-37.0	48.0	W 45 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Buffalo at Kent State	-23.5	48.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	Buffalo vs Troy	-5.5	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/27	Buffalo vs UConn	+3.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	53.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Buffalo at Massachusetts	-16.5	47.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/25	Buffalo vs Akron	-10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+2.5	44.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Buffalo at Central Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 19 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/19	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	38.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Fri 11/28	Buffalo vs Ohio	+7.0	44.5	L 26 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Central Michigan at San José State	+11.5	50.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Central Michigan at Pittsburgh	+21.5	48.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/13	Central Michigan at Michigan	+27.5	42.5	L 3 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/20	Central Michigan vs Wagner	-29.0	47.0	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-3.0	55.5	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Central Michigan at Akron	-7.0	47.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Central Michigan at Bowling Green	+3.0	43.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Central Michigan vs Massachusetts	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+6.0	43.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Central Michigan vs Buffalo	-2.5	44.5	W 38 - 19	O	Y
Wed 11/19	Central Michigan at Kent State	-7.5	50.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+11.5	46.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Fri 12/26	Central Michigan vs Northwestern	+13.5	43.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#117 (.07)	39% (108)	24	39% (108)	2.68 (114)	133	39% (101)	229	3.5 (88)	#49 (.12)	39% (36)	23.5	39% (27)	40% (46)	3.07 (24)	45.7	1.8	1.3
CMU	#70 (.17)	41% (89)	22.5	40% (103)	2.79 (102)	158	44% (41)	153	3.6 (79)	#38 (.1)	40% (45)	23.5	41% (56)	39% (43)	3.14 (27)	45.2	0.9	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5
CMU	#96 (.15)	39% (115)		42% (88)	3.2 (41)	169	34% (124)	163	3.82 (80)	#96 (.21)	40% (44)		41% (48)	39% (50)	3.6 (45)	60.9	2	0.4

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	12	24	23.2	38.8%	3.5	1.8	19	362	133	229	3.9	45%	53%	39%	39%	16%	.07
CMU Defense	13	23.5	15.2	39.5%	3.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	41%	39%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	22.6	39.1%	3.07	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	39%	40%	15%	.12
CMU Offense	13	22.5	30.4	41.1%	3.6	0.9	16	311	158	153	4.1	63%	35%	40%	44%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	12	28:03	19.4	36%	40%	5.4	45.7	1.8	1.3	6.1	2.8	1	29.5
Central Michigan	13	29:35	15.8	35%	60%	5.6	45.2	0.9	1.5	4.9	2.2	2	29

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	12	45% (105)	39% (108)	34.4	133.2	3.9	15 (70)	-.03 (128)	2.68 (114)	69% (92)	9% (64)	0.88 (105)
CMU Defense	13	47% (39)	41% (56)	-	-	-	-	.04 (32)	2.83 (57)	62% (12)	10% (61)	0.9 (38)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	12	55% (124)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	.05 (38)	2.96 (81)	66% (31)	10% (53)	0.89 (35)
CMU Offense	13	63% (7)	40% (103)	38.8	158.1	4.1	17 (78)	.07 (87)	2.79 (102)	75% (49)	12% (121)	0.92 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	12	53% (31)	39% (101)	19.6	34.3	229	6.7	11.7	19 (75)	14 (34)	.19 (103)	1.5 (100)	34% (112)	27% (107)	.28 (75)	7% (103)	2 (77)
CMU Defense	13	51% (97)	39% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.19 (44)	1.5 (64)	32% (59)	27% (33)	.25 (55)	7% (24)	2 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	12	43% (10)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (123)	.23 (60)	1.6 (98)	32% (52)	28% (40)	.17 (18)	5% (95)	1.7 (4)
CMU Offense	13	35% (130)	44% (41)	11.9	17.5	153.4	8.8	12.9	15 (106)	6 (3)	.4 (23)	1.6 (40)	32% (73)	26% (115)	.31 (69)	4% (16)	2.1 (35)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -8.03 #98
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 0.35 #126
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.38 #72
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7 #100
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #120
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #74

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.03 Central Michigan: -3.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.7 Central Michigan: -5.9

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -3.165 #89
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 4.11 #100
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 9.54 #78
2025 Talent Rating: 514.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Central Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Central Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #92
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #115
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #57

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Central Michigan 25
Buffalo 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Central Michigan 24
Buffalo 21

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Central Michigan 25
Buffalo 22

Total Points: 47

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/12	Central Michigan	38	Buffalo	19	Central Michigan -2.5	Central Michigan	44.5	Over
2023	10/07	Buffalo	37	Central Michigan	13	Central Michigan -2.5	Buffalo	51.5	Under
2022	11/09	Central Michigan	31	Buffalo	27	Central Michigan -3	Central Michigan	54.0	Over
2019	10/26	Buffalo	43	Central Michigan	20	Buffalo -1.5	Buffalo	46.5	Over
2018	10/06	Central Michigan	24	Buffalo	34	Buffalo -6.5	Buffalo	52.0	Over
2015	10/17	Central Michigan	51	Buffalo	14	Central Michigan -7	Central Michigan	55.5	Over
2014	10/25	Buffalo	14	Central Michigan	20	Central Michigan -1.5	Central Michigan	0
2009	10/03	Buffalo	13	Central Michigan	20
2008	09/27	Central Michigan	27	Buffalo	25
2006	11/24	Buffalo	28	Central Michigan	55
2004	11/13	Buffalo	36	Central Michigan	6
2001	09/29	Buffalo	8	Central Michigan	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Central Michigan	8	4	5 Overs
Buffalo	4	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	5 - 2	4 - 0	1 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 1	0 - 4

(#98) BUFF at (#89) CMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	CMU
Power RatePwr	#98	#89
SP+SP+	#100	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#62	#78
OffenseOff	#77	#75
DefenseDef	#42	#70
Spec TeamsST	#20	#117
TalentTal	#109	#116
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Buffalo Notes(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report

Central Michigan Notes(10/31) QB1 Labas meh but QB2 Flores incredible runner
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games but lost @ Akron
(8/30) Ground & Pound offense, good vs SJSU 200+
(8/25) QB1 - Joe Labas starting, inj after 6 starts LY
(7/28) Is Drinkall running Army offense?
(6/12) Skill positions very weak on paper. Risers?
(3/26) QB Labas PT starter LY, Glasser has exp
(3/26) RB rebuild, Cornist (Tul) added, some depth
(3/26) WR complete rebuild, 13 rec back. No portals
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, meh LY. 4 portals, 3 via Valpo
(3/26) Def bad LY, return some. 3 portals
(3/26) New HC Drinkall was Army OL coach.
Central Michigan Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#70
SuccessSuc	#108	#45
ExplosiveExp	#104	#55
PPAPPA	#117	#38
PowerPwr	#126	#78
SP+SP+	#120	#57
Pts POPPO	#88	#27
HavocHav	#86	#45

Buffalo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#112	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#56
Run ExplRExp	#105	#38
PPAExp	#128	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#57
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#29
TackleTak	-	#36

Buffalo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#43
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#64
PPAExp	#103	#44
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#59	#21
F7 HavocF7	#64	#61
DB HavocDB	#103	#24

Central Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#75	#42
SuccessSuc	#89	#36
ExplosiveExp	#110	#56
PPAPPA	#70	#49
PowerPwr	#100	#72
SP+SP+	#115	#74
Pts POPPO	#79	#24
HavocHav	#71	#75

Central Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#66	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#27
Run ExplRExp	#85	#35
PPAExp	#87	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#93
TackleTak	-	#20

Central Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#98
PPAExp	#23	#60
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#134	#23
F7 HavocF7	#121	#53
DB HavocDB	#16	#95

Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 37°

Rematch from Week 12
Central Michigan -2.5 (44.5)
Central Michigan won vs Buffalo this year (38-19)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (37-13)
Central Michigan beat Buffalo in 2022 (31-27)

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	206	356	58%	2520	17	12	7.1
Gunnar Gray	29	53	55%	228	2	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	182	755	6	4.1	41
Terrance Shelton Jr.	57	244	1	4.3	20
Lamar Sperling	39	234	1	6.0	63
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	83	125	3	1.5	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan	61	975	3	16.0	55
Victor Snow	62	815	8	13.1	75
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	36	410	3	11.4	39
Al-Jay Henderson	25	181	1	7.2	22

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1
Miles Greer (Tr)	74	3	3	1	3
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)	70	6	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Malin White	55	9	4	4	0
Junior Poyser	30	5	4	2	0
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Kobi Blackwell	20	7
Solomon Brown	56	5
Keontez Bradley (Tr)	28	4

CMU's OC Jim Chapin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Labas	147	208	71%	1854	13	6	8.9
Angel H Flores	19	28	68%	195	2	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nahree Biggins	105	540	2	5.1	58
Angel H Flores	107	527	8	4.9	37
Trey Cornist (Tr)	104	469	1	4.5	29
Brock Townsend	82	418	4	5.1	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Langston Lewis	43	596	3	13.9	77
Tommy Mcintosh	31	422	3	13.6	47
Tyson Davis	25	323	2	12.9	36
Nahree Biggins	19	185	1	9.7	88

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Sean Cronin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Kwiatkowski	112	14	3	2	4
Dakota Cochran	81	6	1	5	3
Caleb Spann	54	1	0	0	4
Kalen Carroll (Tr)	49	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Heldman	48	17	12	8	4
Korver Demma	28	9	4	5	1
Jordan Kwiatkowski	112	14	3	2	4
Jaion Jackson	45	4	2	2	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brenden Deasfernandes	25	0	0	0	8
Jaion Jackson	45	4	2	2	7
Jordan Kwiatkowski	112	14	3	2	4