Buffalo at Massachusetts - 2025 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo   Buffalo Bulls at Massachusetts Minutemen  Massachusetts logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (2:30 PM EDT)
Buffalo -16.5 (47.5) (-800)  Open: -17.0
Buffalo 28 - Massachusetts: 21  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
BUFF coming off BYE
UMASS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -21  (SP+ BUFF -29)

Projected Score: BUFF: 34 - UMASS: 13 (47)
BUFF Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BUFF Travel: 320 miles
Minutemen (0 - 12) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 12 (#136)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-5.543.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+3.051.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.553.5W 31 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.547.5W 28 - 21ON
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-10.048.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.544.5W 28 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.544.5L 19 - 38ON
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.538.5L 20 - 37ON
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+7.044.5L 26 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Massachusetts vs Temple+3.051.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.552.0L 26 - 27ON
Sat 9/13 Massachusetts at Iowa+35.544.5L 7 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Massachusetts at Missouri+44.557.5L 6 - 42UY
Sat 10/4 Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+12.546.5L 3 - 21UN
Sat 10/11 Massachusetts at Kent State+1.549.5L 6 - 42UN
Sat 10/18 Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.547.5L 21 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Massachusetts at Central Michigan+16.546.5L 13 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Massachusetts at Akron+12.551.5L 10 - 44ON
Wed 11/12 Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+8.543.5L 3 - 45ON
Tue 11/18 Massachusetts at Ohio+34.553.5L 14 - 42OY
Tue 11/25 Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+14.044.5L 14 - 45ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)2438% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)23.543% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
UMASS#69 (.19)41% (94)11.143% (78)3.1 (50)16438% (110)1823.73 (89)#114 (.26)46% (116)38.651% (128)40% (71)4.66 (129)63.20.80.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense132423.239.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17
UMASS Defense1238.634.746.3%4.660.8 - - - - - 60%39%51%40%14%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1323.522.642.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
UMASS Offense1211.112.840.8%3.730.8203461641824.156%44%43%38%17%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Massachusetts1232:1919.738%58%7.363.20.80.84.11.3125.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)
UMASS Defense1260% (133)51% (128) - - - - .25 (125)3.51 (131)87% (131)8% (113)0.95 (52)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
UMASS Offense1256% (27)43% (78)40.21644.118 (78).16 (53)3.1 (50)74% (62)11% (95)0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)
UMASS Defense1239% (2)40% (71) - - - - - - 6 (109).29 (100)1.7 (112)28% (118)28% (29).27 (51)6% (72)2.1 (89)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
UMASS Offense1244% (109)38% (110)15.627.3181.86.711.714 (108)6 (10).23 (81)1.7 (22)33% (87)32% (57).34 (69)6% (80)2 (98)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -8.77  #95
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 4.27  #121
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 13.04  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #95
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -8.77   Massachusetts: -28.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5   Massachusetts: -36.6




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -28.965  #137
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: -0.22  #136
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 26.11  #134
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Massachusetts's 2025 Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0
Massachusetts's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.6  #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.8  #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.8  #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 34
Massachusetts 13


Projected Total Points: 47
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 12
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Massachusetts21Buffalo28Buffalo -16.5Massachusetts47.5Over
202409/14Buffalo34Massachusetts3Buffalo -3.5Buffalo45.5Under
202210/15Massachusetts7Buffalo34Buffalo -17Buffalo47.5Under
201511/27Buffalo26Massachusetts31Buffalo -6Massachusetts55.0Over
201411/28Massachusetts21Buffalo41Buffalo -1Buffalo0
201310/19Buffalo32Massachusetts3Buffalo -20.5Buffalo0
201211/17Massachusetts19Buffalo29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts122 Overs
Buffalo642 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 53 - 32 - 11 - 2
Road Teams5 - 23 - 32 - 11 - 2

(#95) BUFF at (#137) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFUMASS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #95 #137
SP+SP+ #95 #136
Perf GradeGrade #58 #136
OffenseOff #80 #136
DefenseDef #36 #130
Spec TeamsST #23 #123
TalentTal #109 #109
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Buffalo Notes
(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report
Massachusetts Notes
(11/4) Killed by Akron, 169 total yds, 3 TOs. Worst FBS
(10/31) Worst program in CFB, but fair everyone is hurt
(10/31) UMass disgrace to MAC, should drop to FCS
(10/30) Only competitive in 2 games & 1 was L to Bryant
(10/24) 13 starters from Week 1 are out now.
(10/15) Have not scored 7+ points in any game over a month
(10/12) Blown out by Kent? UMass is worst team in CFB
(10/12) There is nothing here to like or fear. Mid FCS at best
(9/25) DBs are extremely banged up, moving CB to S
(9/25) 17 pts vs 2 FBS teams, 0 in the 2nd half
(9/25) QB1 B Rose is out, Hairston & Jordan playing
(8/30) Killed by Temple? Barely 300 yds, gave up 450+
Massachusetts Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffUMASS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #80 #130
SuccessSuc #104 #116
ExplosiveExp #41 #41
PPAPPA #77 #114
PowerPwr #121 #134
SP+SP+ #118 #136
Pts POPPO #41 #129
HavocHav #91 #106
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffUMASS Def
Run GameRun #111 #117
Run SuccessRSuc #115 #128
Run ExplRExp #17 #52
PPAExp #96 #125
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #131
Stuff RateStuff #96 #131
TackleTak -  #78
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePass #116 #135
Pass SuccessPSuc #70 #71
Pass ExplPExl #80 #112
PPAExp #47 #100
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #58 #60
F7 HavocF7 #84 #113
DB HavocDB #89 #72
Massachusetts on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUMASS OffBUFF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #136 #36
SuccessSuc #94 #82
ExplosiveExp #72 #97
PPAPPA #69 #72
PowerPwr #136 #63
SP+SP+ #136 #70
Pts POPPO #89 #74
HavocHav #95 #33
Massachusetts Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #134 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #78 #71
Run ExplRExp #68 #45
PPAExp #53 #47
Run BlockR Blk #109 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #68
Stuff RateStuff #38 #64
TackleTak -  #13
Massachusetts Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUMASS OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #112 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #97
Pass ExplPExl #22 #97
PPAExp #81 #91
Pass Block/RushP Blk #134 #19
F7 HavocF7 #95 #35
DB HavocDB #80 #38
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Buffalo 16.5 (47.5)
Buffalo won at Massachusetts this year (28-21)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (28-21)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (34-3)

  
BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)20635658%252017127.1
Gunnar Gray295355%228224.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson18275564.141
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
Lamar Sperling3923416.063
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)8312531.540
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nik McMillan61975316.055
Victor Snow62815813.175
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)36410311.439
Al-Jay Henderson2518117.222

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Dion Crawford795431
Miles Greer (Tr)743313
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)706120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Malin White559440
Junior Poyser305420
Dion Crawford795431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Solomon Brown560005
Keontez Bradley (Tr)280004

UMASS's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Hairston10721650%957444.4
Grant Jordan (Tr)6311057%595325.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brandon Hood (Tr)9836823.890
Rocko Griffin (Tr)5324524.643
Elijah Faulkner4011402.914
Juwuan Price2610103.927
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquon Gibson6361609.850
Donnie Gray (Tr)2726009.641
Max Dowling (Tr)20199310.077
Jake McConnachie (Tr)1614409.021

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Derrieon Craig781112
Zeraun Daniel (Tr)753002
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)694222
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White4311531
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)694222
Tim Grant-Randall273221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Brennen Bailey181002
Derrieon Craig781112