Buffalo at Massachusetts Game Matchup
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls at Massachusetts MinutemenMassachusetts logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - Hadley, MA

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#35)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
BUFF coming off BYE
UMASS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -12.5   (SP+ BUFF -17)
Projected Score: BUFF: 35 - UMASS: 22 (57)
BUFF Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
BUFF Travel: 320 miles
Minutemen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (27 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#129)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Buffalo at Minnesota+18.50.0
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-16
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-16
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy+0.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+1
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-12.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-14.5
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-3.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-6.5
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Massachusetts vs Temple-1.50.0
Sat 9/6 Massachusetts vs Bryant-1
Sat 9/13 Massachusetts at Iowa+36.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Massachusetts at Missouri+37.5
Sat 10/4 Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+2.5
Sat 10/11 Massachusetts at Kent State-1.5
Sat 10/18 Massachusetts vs Buffalo+12.5
Sat 10/25 Massachusetts at Central Michigan+11
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Massachusetts at Akron+5.5
Wed 11/12 Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+9
Tue 11/18 Massachusetts at Ohio+21
Tue 11/25 Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)28.838% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)26.443% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
UMASS#69 (.19)41% (94)22.543% (78)3.1 (50)16438% (110)1823.73 (89)#114 (.26)46% (116)35.551% (128)40% (71)4.66 (129)63.20.80.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense1328.82039.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17
UMASS Defense1235.532.246.3%4.660.8 - - - - - 60%39%51%40%14%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1326.433.742.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
UMASS Offense1222.527.240.8%3.730.8203461641824.156%44%43%38%17%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Massachusetts1232:1919.738%58%7.363.20.80.84.11.3125.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)
UMASS Defense1260% (133)51% (128) - - - - .25 (125)3.51 (131)87% (131)8% (113)0.95 (52)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
UMASS Offense1256% (27)43% (78)40.21644.118 (78).16 (53)3.1 (50)74% (62)11% (95)0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)
UMASS Defense1239% (2)40% (71) - - - - - - 6 (109).29 (100)1.7 (112)28% (118)28% (29).27 (51)6% (72)2.1 (89)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
UMASS Offense1244% (109)38% (110)15.627.3181.86.711.714 (108)6 (10).23 (81)1.7 (22)33% (87)32% (57).34 (69)6% (80)2 (98)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -7.85 #87
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 16.29 #78
2025 Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.85   Massachusetts: -19.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.1   Massachusetts: -23.9




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -19.84 #128
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 6.27 #115
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 27.05 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Massachusetts's 2025 Expected Record: 3.4 - 8.6
Massachusetts's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.9 #135
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #119
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #135

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 35
Massachusetts 22

Projected Total Points: 57
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

Massachusetts's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Buffalo34Massachusetts3BuffaloBuffalo -3.5Buffalo45.5Under
202210/15Massachusetts7Buffalo34BuffaloBuffalo -17Buffalo47.5Under
201511/27Buffalo26Massachusetts31MassachusettsBuffalo -6Massachusetts55.0Over
201411/28Massachusetts21Buffalo41BuffaloBuffalo -1Buffalo0
201310/19Buffalo32Massachusetts3BuffaloBuffalo -20.5Buffalo0
201211/17Massachusetts19Buffalo29Buffalo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts111 Overs
Buffalo542 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 42 - 32 - 10 - 2
Road Teams4 - 23 - 22 - 01 - 2

(#87) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.85 #87
Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Defense Rating: 16.29 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78
Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Buffalo Notes
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, confident w/ no portals?
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though
Buffalo     Ratings Matchup     Massachusetts
Power #87
#128
Off #101
#115
Def #78
#129
Talent #94
#116
SP+ #91
#135
SP+ Off #104
#119
SP+ Def #78
#135

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (34-3)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2022 (34-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | UMASS
Depth Chart: BUFF | UMASS
Rosters: BUFF | UMASS
(#128) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -19.84 #128
Offense Rating: 6.27 #115
Defense Rating: 27.05 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -23.9 #135
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #135
Talent Rating: 462.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 3.4 - 8.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Massachusetts Notes
(3/21) QB G. Jordan (Yale) or Rose (Utah)?
(3/21) RBs meh. Hester has exp. Campbell top rated
(3/21) WR rebuild. JAGs,not much size
(3/21) OL 5/5 back. Not bad, could be good TY
(3/21) Def near worst LY. 12 portals. Any ballers?
(3/21) New HC Harasymiak was 'Gers DC. Tough job
(3/21) New OC Bajakian all over, NFL, Utah, NW


  
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)3743%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Lamar Sperling3915013.822
Terrance Shelton Jr.238803.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Messiah Burch999011.030
Nik McMillan576115.231

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
Marquis Cooper553018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Khalil Murdock15617241
Malin White213240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Eddie Pleasant III110005

Massachusetts's OC Mike Bajakian
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Grant Jordan (Tr)16625066%19382237.8
AJ Hairston407355%480506.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Grant Jordan (Tr)7736054.728
Brandon Campbell6123333.821
Jackson Paradis217013.313
Brandon Rose (Tr)116606.027
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ty Harding18303516.858
Jacquon Gibson23270111.739
Sterling Galban2521008.421
Brandon Campbell86708.424

View Massachusetts's Full Roster
Massachusetts's DC Jared Keyte
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gerrell Johnson743122
D.D. Snyder (Tr)552001
Te'Rai Powell522001
Derrieon Craig433011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Lebrun222200
Shambre Jackson122100
Malachi Madison (Tr)11100
Sahnai Swain-Price71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lake Ellis293005
Gerrell Johnson743122
Jalen Harrell221002