Buffalo at Massachusetts - 2025 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls at Massachusetts MinutemenMassachusetts logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - Hadley, MA

 
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (21 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
BUFF coming off BYE
UMASS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -16.5   (SP+ BUFF -23.5)

Projected Score: BUFF: 33 - UMASS: 17 (50)
BUFF Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BUFF Travel: 320 miles
Minutemen (0 - 3) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 39 (18 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#135)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-6.042.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+6
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-16
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-17
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-4
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-14.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-10
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio-3.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Massachusetts vs Temple+3.051.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 Massachusetts vs Bryant-14.552.0L 26 - 27ON
Sat 9/13 Massachusetts at Iowa+35.544.5L 7 - 47ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Massachusetts at Missouri+50.5
Sat 10/4 Massachusetts vs Western Michigan+4
Sat 10/11 Massachusetts at Kent State+6.5
Sat 10/18 Massachusetts vs Buffalo+16.5
Sat 10/25 Massachusetts at Central Michigan+5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Massachusetts at Akron+7
Wed 11/12 Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois+14.5
Tue 11/18 Massachusetts at Ohio+20.5
Tue 11/25 Massachusetts vs Bowling Green+10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#73 (.19)41% (91)28.745% (62)3.02 (67)18635% (113)1864.58 (43)#79 (.15)40% (74)1934% (32)46% (105)2.3 (27)38.71.31
UMASS#120 (.06)41% (92)14.335% (119)2.25 (124)7746% (50)1832.73 (121)#113 (.25)42% (87)38.738% (64)46% (106)4.24 (98)4510.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)38% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)43% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
UMASS#69 (.19)41% (94)43% (78)3.1 (50)16438% (110)1823.73 (89)#114 (.26)46% (116)51% (128)40% (71)4.66 (129)63.20.80.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense328.720.540.8%4.581.3213721861864.860%39%45%35%11%.19
UMASS Defense338.734.542.5%4.240.7 - - - - - 40%59%38%46%9%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense31925.540.2%2.31 - - - - - 47%53%34%46%12%.15
UMASS Offense314.31840.7%2.73116260771832.746%53%35%46%19%.06

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo327:0921.343%50%3.738.71.316.73032.3
Massachusetts330:0515.728%20%54510.72.71.3127.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense360% (18)45% (62)38.7185.74.86 (49).17 (55)3.02 (67)83% (28)6% (23)0.97 (65)
UMASS Defense340% (9)38% (64) - - - - .1 (90)3.39 (126)75% (80)4% (134)0.81 (35)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense347% (53)34% (32) - - - - -.1 (20)2.93 (84)75% (80)7% (117)0.65 (9)
UMASS Offense346% (93)35% (119)2876.72.74 (79)-.04 (120)2.25 (124)60% (103)13% (121)1.14 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense339% (120)35% (113)1727.31866.810.95 (54)3 (92).28 (72)1.6 (48)29% (56)30% (81).25 (87)5% (63)1.4 (126)
UMASS Defense359% (126)46% (106) - - - - - - 2 (56).4 (115)1.6 (94)30% (103)25% (42).11 (33)4% (100)1.8 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense353% (87)46% (105) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (113)1.6 (90)34% (57)32% (85).27 (71)6% (76)1.6 (23)
UMASS Offense353% (48)46% (50)19.331.31835.89.50 (133)2 (60).22 (82)1.1 (133)34% (103)32% (67).32 (74)6% (96)2 (74)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -4.16 #89
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 5.28 #102
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 9.44 #79
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #89
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.16   Massachusetts: -21.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -5.5   Massachusetts: -28.8




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -21.4 #127
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 1.39 #126
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 20.39 #121
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Massachusetts's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -28.8 #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #129
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 44.9 #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.5
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 33
Massachusetts 17


Total Points: 50

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 14.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 18
Defense: 38.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.5

Massachusetts's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Buffalo34Massachusetts3BuffaloBuffalo -3.5Buffalo45.5Under
202210/15Massachusetts7Buffalo34BuffaloBuffalo -17Buffalo47.5Under
201511/27Buffalo26Massachusetts31MassachusettsBuffalo -6Massachusetts55.0Over
201411/28Massachusetts21Buffalo41BuffaloBuffalo -1Buffalo0
201310/19Buffalo32Massachusetts3BuffaloBuffalo -20.5Buffalo0
201211/17Massachusetts19Buffalo29Buffalo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts111 Overs
Buffalo542 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 42 - 32 - 10 - 2
Road Teams4 - 23 - 22 - 01 - 2

(#89) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -4.16 #89
Offense Rating: 5.28 #102
Defense Rating: 9.44 #79
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #89
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Good Run Def Success 34%
Poor Pass Def Success 46%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Buffalo has lost 3 straight
Buffalo has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Buffalo Notes
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though

Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#19)

Buffalo Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Buffalo defense is really good in red zone (#27)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)

Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo pass game is really bad (#113)
Buffalo Does Not Stuff Runs (#124)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUMASSBUFF
OverallOver#91#44
OffenseOff#106#43
DefenseDef#69#60
Special TeamsST#87#32
PassingPass#96#67
RushingRush#101#71
Run BlockRBLK#85#19
Pass BlockPBLK#113#30
Route RunningWR Rt#88#69
TacklingTkl#4#33
Run DefenseR Def#42#41
Pass Rush DefPRush#21#38
Coverage DefCov#106#88

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (34-3)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2022 (34-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | UMASS
Depth Chart: BUFF | UMASS
Rosters: BUFF | UMASS
(#127) Massachusetts Info
Power Rating: -21.4 #127
Offense Rating: 1.39 #126
Defense Rating: 20.39 #121
Overall SP+ Rating: -28.8 #136
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #129
Defense SP+ Rating: 44.9 #136
Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.73 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.24 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Poor Pass Def Success 46%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Massachusetts has lost 6 straight
Massachusetts has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 2 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Massachusetts Notes
(9/9) Long list of injuries pre Iowa, check report
(8/30) Killed by Temple? Barely 300 yds, gave up 450+
(8/30) Def could be bottom 10, allowed 6 TD passes
(3/21) QB G. Jordan (Yale) or Rose (Utah)?
(3/21) RBs meh. Hester has exp. Campbell top rated
(3/21) WR rebuild. JAGs,not much size
(3/21) OL 5/5 back. Not bad, could be good TY
(3/21) Def near worst LY. 12 portals. Any ballers?
(3/21) New HC Harasymiak was 'Gers DC. Tough job
(3/21) New OC Bajakian all over, NFL, Utah, NW

Massachusetts Highlights

Massachusetts Deficiencies
Massachusetts has a really bad Offense
Massachusetts has a really bad Offense at Home
Massachusetts Can Not Run the Ball (#126)
Massachusetts offense is not Explosive (#108)
Massachusetts Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#124)
Massachusetts offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#121)
Massachusetts run game is really bad (#119)
Massachusetts offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Massachusetts Does Not Stuff Runs (#133)
Massachusetts has a bad defensive line (#126)


  
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)508063%558527.0
Gunnar Gray1250%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson5019834.038
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)2815825.640
James McNeil Jr.106616.626
Lamar Sperling135003.87
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow11168315.340
Nik McMillan10148114.838
Chance Morrow699116.526
Al-Jay Henderson108008.022

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock323100
Miles Greer (Tr)221001
Dion Crawford200010
Solomon Brown180002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Saveon Brown133222
Khalil Murdock323100
Kobe Stewart62120
Junior Poyser41110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Saveon Brown133222
Solomon Brown180002
Jalen McNair151012

Massachusetts's OC Mike Bajakian
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brandon Rose (Tr)274461%217014.9
Grant Jordan (Tr)243863%248016.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocko Griffin (Tr)3014214.741
Brandon Hood (Tr)164212.618
Jacquon Gibson31103.713
Grant Jordan (Tr)171020.619
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquon Gibson24258010.850
Donnie Gray (Tr)587017.441
Tyree Kelly (Tr)552010.415
Max Dowling (Tr)54208.419

View Massachusetts's Full Roster
Massachusetts's DC Jared Keyte
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)242101
Derrieon Craig230001
Tyler Martin190001
Kendall Bournes151000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White64211
Tim Grant-Randall92111
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)242101
Donovan Dyson20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Magee (Tr)90002
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)242101
Tyler Martin190001