Ohio at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, November 28th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Ohio -7.0 (44.5) (-250) Open: -6.0 | 47.5
Ohio 31 - Buffalo: 26 (Mid-American)

Bobcats (9 - 4) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (21 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Wind: 25.5 MPH
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -1 (SP+ OHIO -3.5)
Projected Score: OHIO: 24 - BUFF: 23 (46)
OHIO Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
OHIO Travel: 307 miles

Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
OHIO Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Ohio at Rutgers	+11.5	46.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio vs West Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio at Ohio State	+28.0	49.0	L 9 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Ohio vs Gardner-Webb	-30.5	55.0	W 52 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/27	Ohio vs Bowling Green	-7.5	49.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio at Ball State	-14.0	52.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Ohio vs Northern Illinois	-10.5	41.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	-11.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	50.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Tue 11/11	Ohio at Western Michigan	+1.5	46.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Tue 11/18	Ohio vs Massachusetts	-34.5	53.5	W 42 - 14	O	N
Fri 11/28	Ohio at Buffalo	-7.0	44.5	W 31 - 26	O	N
Tue 12/23	Ohio vs UNLV	+6.5	64.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Buffalo at Minnesota	+16.5	45.5	L 10 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)	-37.0	48.0	W 45 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Buffalo at Kent State	-23.5	48.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	Buffalo vs Troy	-5.5	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/27	Buffalo vs UConn	+3.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	53.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Buffalo at Massachusetts	-16.5	47.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/25	Buffalo vs Akron	-10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+2.5	44.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Buffalo at Central Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 19 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/19	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	38.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Fri 11/28	Buffalo vs Ohio	+7.0	44.5	L 26 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)	27.8	47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)	21.9	34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)	24	38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)	23.5	43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Offense	14	27.8	21	45.8%	4.15	1.6	22	406	214	193	5.2	59%	41%	47%	45%	14%	.24
BUFF Defense	13	23.5	24.1	42.8%	3.84	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	43%	18%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Defense	14	21.9	25.8	36.9%	3.79	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	34%	40%	20%	.1
BUFF Offense	13	24	24.6	39.6%	4.22	1	17	329	153	176	4.2	55%	45%	38%	42%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio	14	32:43	21.9	48%	60%	5.5	44.9	1.6	1.5	6.3	2.5	3	27.9
Buffalo	13	26:20	17.2	34%	52%	4	39.3	1	1.5	6.3	2.2	2	31.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense	14	59% (13)	47% (35)	40.7	213.5	5.2	35 (8)	.24 (18)	3.1 (52)	78% (31)	9% (52)	1.12 (13)
BUFF Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.08 (47)	3.01 (68)	63% (16)	12% (35)	0.94 (45)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense	14	45% (15)	34% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (6)	2.49 (8)	74% (69)	13% (13)	1 (72)
BUFF Offense	13	55% (36)	38% (115)	36.2	153.3	4.2	23 (52)	.08 (96)	2.7 (117)	61% (122)	10% (84)	1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense	14	41% (119)	45% (35)	15.5	24.7	192.5	7.8	12.4	15 (98)	12 (85)	.23 (80)	1.4 (128)	29% (32)	37% (13)	.45 (23)	5% (43)	1.8 (120)
BUFF Defense	13	53% (109)	43% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.28 (91)	1.7 (97)	32% (58)	29% (40)	.18 (18)	7% (38)	2.2 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense	14	54% (121)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.22 (60)	1.5 (53)	35% (22)	24% (2)	.18 (19)	7% (40)	2.2 (107)
BUFF Offense	13	45% (99)	42% (70)	14.2	25.2	175.8	7	12.4	19 (65)	6 (10)	.29 (47)	1.5 (80)	33% (97)	31% (75)	.34 (66)	6% (89)	1.9 (106)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -4.92 #79
Ohio's Offense Rating: 10.07 #86
Ohio's Defense Rating: 14.99 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #84
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -4.92 Buffalo: -5.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -4.0 Buffalo: -7.5

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.635 #94
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 4.27 #120
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 13.04 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #95
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 24
Buffalo 23

Projected Total Points: 46

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Buffalo	26	Ohio	31	Ohio -7.0	Buffalo	44.5	Over
2024	10/26	Ohio	47	Buffalo	16	Ohio -4.0	Ohio	46.5	Over
2023	11/07	Buffalo	10	Ohio	20	Ohio -9.5	Ohio	45.5	Under
2022	11/01	Ohio	45	Buffalo	24	Buffalo -2.5	Ohio	61.0	Over
2021	10/16	Buffalo	27	Ohio	26	Buffalo -7.5	Ohio	54.5	Under
2019	10/05	Buffalo	20	Ohio	21	Ohio -3	Buffalo	53.0	Under
2018	11/14	Ohio	52	Buffalo	17	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	66.0	Over
2017	11/24	Buffalo	31	Ohio	24	Ohio -7	Buffalo	56.0	Under
2016	11/03	Ohio	34	Buffalo	10	Ohio -19	Ohio	51.5	Under
2015	10/24	Buffalo	41	Ohio	17	Ohio -2	Buffalo	53.0	Over
2014	11/05	Ohio	37	Buffalo	14	Ohio -2	Ohio	0
2013	11/05	Buffalo	30	Ohio	3	Buffalo -2.5	Buffalo	0
2012	10/06	Ohio	38	Buffalo	31
2011	10/08	Buffalo	38	Ohio	37
2010	11/04	Ohio	34	Buffalo	17
2009	11/10	Buffalo	24	Ohio	27
2008	10/28	Ohio	19	Buffalo	32
2007	10/06	Buffalo	31	Ohio	10
2006	10/21	Ohio	42	Buffalo	7
2005	10/29	Buffalo	20	Ohio	34
2004	09/25	Ohio	34	Buffalo	0
2003	10/25	Buffalo	26	Ohio	17
2002	09/28	Ohio	34	Buffalo	32
2001	11/03	Buffalo	44	Ohio	0
2000	10/06	Ohio	42	Buffalo	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	9	5	5 Overs
Ohio	16	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	19 - 6	10 - 2	5 - 1	5 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 19	2 - 10	1 - 5	1 - 5

(#79) OHIO at (#94) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OHIO	BUFF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#79	#94
SP+SP+	#84	#95
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#58
OffenseOff	#44	#80
DefenseDef	#91	#36
Spec TeamsST	#106	#23
TalentTal	#101	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Ohio Notes(12/17) HC Smith fired. Weird situation
(11/13) WMU controls MAC after beating Ohio, Navarro meh
(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
Ohio Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#36
SuccessSuc	#30	#82
ExplosiveExp	#92	#97
PPAPPA	#40	#72
PowerPwr	#86	#62
SP+SP+	#98	#70
Pts POPPO	#47	#74
HavocHav	#42	#33

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#48	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#71
Run ExplRExp	#13	#45
PPAExp	#18	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#64
TackleTak	-	#13

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#128	#97
PPAExp	#80	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#70	#19
F7 HavocF7	#52	#35
DB HavocDB	#43	#38

Buffalo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#91
SuccessSuc	#104	#10
ExplosiveExp	#41	#92
PPAPPA	#77	#23
PowerPwr	#120	#77
SP+SP+	#118	#61
Pts POPPO	#41	#68
HavocHav	#91	#14

Buffalo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#111	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#3
Run ExplRExp	#17	#72
PPAExp	#96	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#117	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#96	#13
TackleTak	-	#97

Buffalo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#53
PPAExp	#47	#60
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#73
F7 HavocF7	#84	#13
DB HavocDB	#89	#40

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 34° - Wind: 26 mph

Rematch from Week 14
Ohio 7.0 (44.5)
Ohio won at Buffalo this year (31-26)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Buffalo last year (31-26)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2024 (47-16)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2023 (20-10)

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	188	303	62%	2375	14	11	7.8
Nick Poulos	4	8	50%	19	0	0	2.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)	240	1392	15	5.8	49
Parker Navarro	161	886	9	5.5	44
Duncan Brune	120	585	8	4.9	66
Jake Bruno	1	48	0	48.0	48

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Hendricks	71	1037	7	14.6	67
Rodney Harris II	30	419	2	14.0	49
Mason Williams	27	285	3	10.6	30
Caleb Gossett	12	162	0	13.5	35

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson	86	7	0	2	1
Adonis Williams Jr.	75	4	1	1	1
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Joseph Marsh (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Derek Reagans	8	2	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tank Pearson	49	0	0	0	8
Jack Fries	54	3	1	1	5
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	206	356	58%	2520	17	12	7.1
Gunnar Gray	29	53	55%	228	2	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	182	755	6	4.1	41
Terrance Shelton Jr.	57	244	1	4.3	20
Lamar Sperling	39	234	1	6.0	63
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	83	125	3	1.5	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan	61	975	3	16.0	55
Victor Snow	62	815	8	13.1	75
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	36	410	3	11.4	39
Al-Jay Henderson	25	181	1	7.2	22

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1
Miles Greer (Tr)	74	3	3	1	3
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)	70	6	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Malin White	55	9	4	4	0
Junior Poyser	30	5	4	2	0
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Kobi Blackwell	20	7
Solomon Brown	56	5
Keontez Bradley (Tr)	28	4