Ohio at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ohio logo Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Friday, November 28th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
UB Stadium - Amherst, NY  (Mid-American)

 
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (23 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#37)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
OHIO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ohio -1   (SP+ OHIO -2.5)
Projected Score: OHIO: 27 - BUFF: 26 (52)
OHIO Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
OHIO Travel: 307 miles
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Ohio at Rutgers+10.547.5
Sat 9/6 Ohio vs West Virginia+1
Sat 9/13 Ohio at Ohio State+38
Sat 9/20 Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-19.5
Sat 9/27 Ohio vs Bowling Green-12
Sat 10/4 Ohio at Ball State-16
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Ohio vs Northern Illinois-9
Sat 10/25 Ohio at Eastern Michigan-8
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Ohio vs Miami (OH)-10
Tue 11/11 Ohio at Western Michigan-11
Tue 11/18 Ohio vs Massachusetts-20.5
Fri 11/28 Ohio at Buffalo-1

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+17.545.5
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-16
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-16
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy+0.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+1
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-12.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-14.5
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-3.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-6.5
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#40 (.24)46% (30)29.347% (35)3.1 (52)21445% (35)1934.15 (47)#23 (.1)37% (10)18.134% (3)40% (57)3.79 (68)44.91.61.5
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)28.838% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)26.443% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Offense1429.323.345.8%4.151.6224062141935.259%41%47%45%14%.24
BUFF Defense1326.422.342.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Defense1418.123.536.9%3.791.5 - - - - - 45%54%34%40%20%.1
BUFF Offense1328.838.239.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio1432:4321.948%60%5.544.91.61.56.32.5327.9
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense1459% (13)47% (35)40.7213.55.235 (8).24 (18)3.1 (52)78% (31)9% (52)1.12 (13)
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense1445% (15)34% (3) - - - - -.03 (6)2.49 (8)74% (69)13% (13)1 (72)
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense1441% (119)45% (35)15.524.7192.57.812.415 (98)12 (85).23 (80)1.4 (128)29% (32)37% (13).45 (23)5% (43)1.8 (120)
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense1454% (121)40% (57) - - - - - - 11 (52).22 (60)1.5 (53)35% (22)24% (2).18 (19)7% (40)2.2 (107)
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -3.87 #77
Ohio's Offense Rating: 11.04 #87
Ohio's Defense Rating: 14.91 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 510.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #80
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #79

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 526.31
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -3.87   Buffalo: -4.975

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -4.4   Buffalo: -7.1




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -4.975 #87
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 16.29 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 526.31
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87


Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.5

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio 27
Buffalo 26

Projected Total Points: 52
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Ohio47Buffalo16OhioOhio -4.0Ohio46.5Over
202311/07Buffalo10Ohio20OhioOhio -9.5Ohio45.5Under
202211/01Ohio45Buffalo24OhioBuffalo -2.5Ohio61.0Over
202110/16Buffalo27Ohio26BuffaloBuffalo -7.5Ohio54.5Under
201910/05Buffalo20Ohio21OhioOhio -3Buffalo53.0Under
201811/14Ohio52Buffalo17OhioOhio -2.5Ohio66.0Over
201711/24Buffalo31Ohio24BuffaloOhio -7Buffalo56.0Under
201611/03Ohio34Buffalo10OhioOhio -19Ohio51.5Under
201510/24Buffalo41Ohio17BuffaloOhio -2Buffalo53.0Over
201411/05Ohio37Buffalo14OhioOhio -2Ohio0
201311/05Buffalo30Ohio3BuffaloBuffalo -2.5Buffalo0
201210/06Ohio38Buffalo31Ohio
201110/08Buffalo38Ohio37Buffalo
201011/04Ohio34Buffalo17Ohio
200911/10Buffalo24Ohio27Ohio
200810/28Ohio19Buffalo32Buffalo
200710/06Buffalo31Ohio10Buffalo
200610/21Ohio42Buffalo7Ohio
200510/29Buffalo20Ohio34Ohio
200409/25Ohio34Buffalo0Ohio
200310/25Buffalo26Ohio17Buffalo
200209/28Ohio34Buffalo32Ohio
200111/03Buffalo44Ohio0Buffalo
200010/06Ohio42Buffalo20Ohio
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo944 Overs
Ohio1575 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams19 - 59 - 25 - 14 - 1
Road Teams5 - 192 - 91 - 41 - 5

(#77) Ohio Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.87 #77
Offense Rating: 11.04 #87
Defense Rating: 14.91 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #79
Talent Rating: 510.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Good Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Great Run Def Success 34%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Ohio Notes
(6/2) RB S Bangura (Minn) getting some hype
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
(5/5) Def OK LY, returns good prod. 8 portal adds
(5/5) HC Smith was OC/PGC for past 3 years
(5/5) LY HC Albin left Ohio for Charlotte? Bad sign
(3/26) WR rebuild, have a lot of depth. TE exp'd
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, OK LY. Have depth
Ohio     Ratings Matchup     Buffalo
Power #77
#87
Off #87
#101
Def #66
#77
Talent #105
#94
SP+ #80
#91
SP+ Off #83
#104
SP+ Def #79
#78

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Buffalo last year (47-16)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2023 (20-10)
Ohio beat Buffalo in 2022 (45-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: OHIO | BUFF
Depth Chart: OHIO | BUFF
Rosters: OHIO | BUFF
(#87) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.975 #87
Offense Rating: 8.44 #101
Defense Rating: 16.29 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #78
Talent Rating: 552.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Buffalo Notes
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, confident w/ no portals?
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though


  
Ohio's OC Scott Isphording
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Navarro19529566%242313118.2
Nick Poulos224945%271215.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Navarro1601047186.555
Nick Poulos2814915.322
Tim Carpenter (Tr)118607.827
Duncan Brune268413.28
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Hendricks40471111.856
Rodney Harris II23299013.052
Mason Williams19211211.121
Caleb Gossett1615809.934

View Ohio's Full Roster
Ohio's DC John Hauser
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dustin Johnson772004
DJ Walker537007
Tank Pearson502006
Ben McNaboe447473
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben McNaboe447473
Kadin Schmitz324400
Kaci Seegars125120
Pius Odjugo (Tr)164120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Walker537007
Tank Pearson502006
Dustin Johnson772004

Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)3743%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Lamar Sperling3915013.822
Terrance Shelton Jr.238803.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)3230739.626
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Messiah Burch999011.030

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
Marquis Cooper553018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Khalil Murdock15617241
Malin White213240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Eddie Pleasant III110005