Akron at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 25th 2025 (1:00 PM EDT)
Buffalo -10 (48.5) (-395) Open: -10.0
Akron 24 - Buffalo: 16 (Mid-American)

Zips (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (8 - 28)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

AKR 2nd straight Road Game
AKR is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -5 (SP+ BUFF -4)
Projected Score: AKR: 22 - BUFF: 27 (49)
BUFF Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
AKR Travel: 193 miles

Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
AKR Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Akron's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Akron vs Wyoming	+8.5	49.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	Akron at Nebraska	+34.0	47.5	L 0 - 68	O	N
Sat 9/13	Akron at UAB	+12.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Akron vs Duquesne	-10.5	51.0	W 51 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Akron at Toledo	+21.5	50.5	L 3 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/4	Akron vs Central Michigan	+7.0	47.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Akron vs Miami (OH)	+11.5	47.5	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/18	Akron at Ball State	-2.5	44.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Akron at Buffalo	+10.0	48.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Akron vs Massachusetts	-12.5	51.5	W 44 - 10	O	Y
Tue 11/11	Akron vs Kent State	-7.5	49.5	L 35 - 42	O	N
Tue 11/18	Akron at Bowling Green	+2.5	47.5	W 19 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Akron's Schedule

Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Buffalo at Minnesota	+16.5	45.5	L 10 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)	-37.0	48.0	W 45 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Buffalo at Kent State	-23.5	48.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/20	Buffalo vs Troy	-5.5	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/27	Buffalo vs UConn	+3.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	53.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Buffalo at Massachusetts	-16.5	47.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/25	Buffalo vs Akron	-10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Buffalo at Bowling Green	+2.5	44.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Buffalo at Central Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 19 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/19	Buffalo vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	38.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Fri 11/28	Buffalo vs Ohio	+7.0	44.5	L 26 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#118 (.07)	38% (112)	22.3	40% (98)	2.8 (100)	136	37% (114)	219	3.25 (112)	#46 (.11)	39% (39)	27.4	41% (59)	38% (36)	3.68 (70)	45.8	1.4	1.7
BUFF	#117 (.07)	39% (108)	24	39% (108)	2.68 (114)	133	39% (101)	229	3.5 (88)	#49 (.12)	39% (36)	23.5	39% (27)	40% (46)	3.07 (24)	45.7	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#122 (.07)	39% (114)		44% (64)	2.82 (103)	101	36% (118)	233	3.26 (120)	#91 (.21)	45% (101)		41% (55)	49% (126)	4.19 (108)	48.7	1.7	0.8
BUFF	#77 (.17)	40% (104)		38% (115)	2.7 (117)	153	42% (70)	176	4.22 (41)	#72 (.17)	43% (82)		43% (71)	43% (97)	3.84 (74)	39.3	1	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Offense	12	22.3	17	38.4%	3.25	1.4	20	355	136	219	3.8	45%	52%	40%	37%	18%	.07
BUFF Defense	12	23.5	24.1	39.1%	3.07	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	39%	40%	15%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Defense	12	27.4	36.3	39.2%	3.68	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	38%	17%	.11
BUFF Offense	12	24	24.6	38.8%	3.5	1.8	19	362	133	229	3.9	45%	53%	39%	39%	16%	.07

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Akron	12	29:52	20.1	31%	48%	5.8	45.8	1.4	1.7	5.8	2.1	1	29.4
Buffalo	12	28:03	19.4	36%	40%	5.4	45.7	1.8	1.3	6.1	2.8	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Offense	12	45% (103)	40% (98)	35.8	136.4	3.8	9 (132)	(122)	2.8 (100)	72% (70)	10% (98)	0.82 (122)
BUFF Defense	12	55% (124)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	.05 (38)	2.96 (81)	66% (31)	10% (53)	0.89 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Defense	12	51% (77)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	.03 (27)	2.75 (46)	58% (5)	11% (30)	0.92 (50)
BUFF Offense	12	45% (105)	39% (108)	34.4	133.2	3.9	15 (70)	-.03 (128)	2.68 (114)	69% (92)	9% (64)	0.88 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Offense	12	52% (39)	37% (114)	17.4	33.7	219	6.5	12.6	20 (50)	9 (88)	.18 (105)	1.6 (34)	35% (125)	28% (96)	.19 (113)	8% (123)	2.1 (61)
BUFF Defense	12	43% (10)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (123)	.23 (60)	1.6 (98)	32% (52)	28% (40)	.17 (18)	5% (95)	1.7 (4)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Defense	12	48% (69)	38% (36)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (38)	.23 (58)	1.7 (121)	30% (93)	25% (15)	.22 (40)	6% (54)	2.2 (115)
BUFF Offense	12	53% (31)	39% (101)	19.6	34.3	229	6.7	11.7	19 (75)	14 (34)	.19 (103)	1.5 (100)	34% (112)	27% (107)	.28 (75)	7% (103)	2 (77)

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -9.21 #105
Akron's Offense Rating: 1.41 #119
Akron's Defense Rating: 10.62 #82
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Akron's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Akron's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #114
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #122
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #86

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Akron: -9.21 Buffalo: -5.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Akron: -13.0 Buffalo: -8.7

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.865 #98
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 0.35 #126
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.38 #72
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7 #100
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #120
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #74

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Akron Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Akron's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 27
Akron 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Buffalo 30
Akron 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Buffalo 28
Akron 22

Total Points: 50

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Buffalo	16	Akron	24	Buffalo -10	Akron	48.5	Under
2024	11/02	Akron	30	Buffalo	41	Akron -1	Buffalo	49.0	Over
2023	09/30	Akron	10	Buffalo	13	Akron -3	Buffalo	53.0	Under
2022	12/02	Buffalo	23	Akron	22	Buffalo -12.0	Akron	55.0	Under
2021	10/23	Akron	10	Buffalo	45	Buffalo -13.5	Buffalo	58.5	Under
2020	12/12	Buffalo	56	Akron	7	Buffalo -33.5	Buffalo	58.5	Over
2019	10/19	Akron	0	Buffalo	21	Buffalo -17.5	Buffalo	48.0	Under
2018	10/13	Buffalo	24	Akron	6	Buffalo -12	Buffalo	55.0	Under
2017	10/28	Akron	21	Buffalo	20	Buffalo -3	Akron	49.5	Under
2016	10/27	Buffalo	41	Akron	20	Akron -14.5	Buffalo	63.0	Under
2015	11/21	Akron	42	Buffalo	21	Akron -2.5	Akron	45.0	Over
2014	11/11	Buffalo	55	Akron	24	Akron -2.5	Buffalo	0
2011	11/19	Buffalo	51	Akron	10
2010	11/26	Akron	22	Buffalo	14
2009	10/17	Buffalo	21	Akron	17
2008	11/13	Akron	40	Buffalo	43
2007	10/27	Buffalo	26	Akron	10
2006	11/09	Akron	31	Buffalo	16
2005	10/08	Buffalo	7	Akron	13
2004	10/09	Akron	44	Buffalo	21
2003	09/27	Buffalo	21	Akron	38
2001	11/17	Buffalo	14	Akron	41
2000	11/10	Akron	49	Buffalo	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	13	8	3 Overs
Akron	10	4	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 9	6 - 6	3 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 14	6 - 6	2 - 3	4 - 3

(#105) AKR at (#98) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AKR	BUFF
Power RatePwr	#105	#98
SP+SP+	#114	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#85	#62
OffenseOff	#84	#77
DefenseDef	#49	#42
Spec TeamsST	#103	#20
TalentTal	#122	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#101

Akron Notes(11/4) Killed UMass, over 430 yds, Def played well
(10/31) Coming off only bye into Nov & last 3 MAC gms
(10/31) QB Ben Finley & RB Jordan Grant can play, OL Avg
(10/31) Could get to 6-6? UMass, Kent, BG to finish
(10/4) QB Finley missed Toledo game, ? for CMU game
(9/24) QB Finley playing better but this Off is terrible
(8/28) Offense somehow worse than anticipated, woof
(8/21) This is not an FBS roster. Bad team
(8/21) No bowl, no real bye, end on Nov 18th
(7/27) WR A Adams was leader WR in '23, injury probs
(5/29) QB Finley & WRs + DBs are only real assets
(5/29) RB awful LY. Limited options, 1 FCS portal add?
Akron Injury Report

Buffalo Notes(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report

Akron on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	BUFF Def
Perf GradePerf	#84	#42
SuccessSuc	#112	#36
ExplosiveExp	#62	#56
PPAPPA	#118	#49
PowerPwr	#119	#72
SP+SP+	#122	#74
Pts POPPO	#112	#24
HavocHav	#114	#75

Akron Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#102	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#98	#27
Run ExplRExp	#122	#35
PPAExp	#122	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#104	#93
TackleTak	-	#20

Akron Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#34	#98
PPAExp	#105	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#23
F7 HavocF7	#98	#53
DB HavocDB	#123	#95

Buffalo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	AKR Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#49
SuccessSuc	#108	#39
ExplosiveExp	#104	#93
PPAPPA	#117	#46
PowerPwr	#126	#82
SP+SP+	#120	#86
Pts POPPO	#88	#70
HavocHav	#86	#35

Buffalo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	AKR Def
Run GameRun	#112	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#59
Run ExplRExp	#105	#50
PPAExp	#128	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#19
TackleTak	-	#50

Buffalo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	BUFF Off	AKR Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#36
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#121
PPAExp	#103	#58
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#53
F7 HavocF7	#64	#30
DB HavocDB	#103	#54

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

AKR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 51°

Rematch from Week 9
Buffalo -10.0 (48.5)
Akron won at Buffalo this year (24-16)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Akron last year (41-30)
Buffalo beat Akron in 2023 (13-10)
Akron beat Buffalo in 2022 (0-0)

AKR's OC Taylor Housewright (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley	186	362	51%	2475	19	9	6.8
Michael Johnson Jr. (Tr)	12	23	52%	62	1	0	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Gant (Tr)	213	1032	6	4.8	36
Sean Patrick	69	274	1	4.0	25
Ben Finley	69	130	2	1.9	40
Marquese Williams	21	86	0	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marcel Williams (Tr)	45	641	2	14.2	46
Israel Polk	33	525	8	15.9	75
Kyan Mason	33	481	5	14.6	62
Myles Walker	20	209	0	10.5	24

View Akron's Full Roster

AKR's DC Tim Tibesar (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shammond Cooper	66	5	1	1	1
Gage Summers	54	7	2	1	0
DiMarco Johnson	53	1	0	0	3
Malcom DeWalt IV	51	3	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julien Laventure	45	11	4	6	0
Bruno Dall	44	8	4	6	6
Cyrus Durham (Tr)	32	9	4	7	0
Ronald Hull	20	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malcom DeWalt IV	51	3	0	1	8
Bruno Dall	44	8	4	6	6
Elijah Reed	44	2	1	0	4

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	206	356	58%	2520	17	12	7.1
Gunnar Gray	29	53	55%	228	2	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Al-Jay Henderson	182	755	6	4.1	41
Terrance Shelton Jr.	57	244	1	4.3	20
Lamar Sperling	39	234	1	6.0	63
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	83	125	3	1.5	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan	61	975	3	16.0	55
Victor Snow	62	815	8	13.1	75
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	36	410	3	11.4	39
Al-Jay Henderson	25	181	1	7.2	22

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1
Miles Greer (Tr)	74	3	3	1	3
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)	70	6	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalil Murdock	142	14	5	1	1
Malin White	55	9	4	4	0
Junior Poyser	30	5	4	2	0
Dion Crawford	79	5	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	PD
Kobi Blackwell	20	7
Solomon Brown	56	5
Keontez Bradley (Tr)	28	4