Air Force at UNLV - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UNLV -7 (65.5) (-250) Open: -7.0
UNLV 51 - Air Force: 48 (Mountain West)

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

AFA 2nd straight Road Game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -5.5 (SP+ UNLV -8)
Projected Score: AFA: 29 - UNLV: 35 (64)
UNLV Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 1887 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

UNLV's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	UNLV vs Idaho State	-30.5	67.0	W 38 - 31	O	N
Fri 8/29	UNLV vs Sam Houston	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UNLV vs UCLA	+2.5	54.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UNLV at Miami (OH)	-2.5	49.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UNLV at Wyoming	-4.5	50.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/11	UNLV vs Air Force	-7.0	65.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	UNLV at Boise State	+12.5	60.5	L 31 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UNLV vs New Mexico	-3.5	61.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/8	UNLV at Colorado State	-5.5	60.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/15	UNLV vs Utah State	-4.5	68.5	W 29 - 26	U	N
Fri 11/21	UNLV vs Hawai'i	-2.5	64.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/29	UNLV at Nevada	-7.5	53.0	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Fri 12/5	UNLV at Boise State	+6.0	60.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Tue 12/23	UNLV vs Ohio	-6.5	64.5	L 10 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)	29.8	45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)	30.3	41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)	34.1	43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)	28	40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	29.8	32.2	42.1%	4.02	1.3	18	314	225	90	4	82%	18%	45%	31%	12%	.13
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.7	37.4%	4.05	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	40%	36%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	30.3	32.8	41.7%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	41%	43%	15%	.2
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	36.8	41.7%	4.26	0.6	21	420	248	173	5.7	61%	39%	43%	40%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	33:58	17.9	42%	64%	3	28	1.3	1	4.3	1.5	0	28.6
UNLV	14	29:59	21.1	40%	70%	5.6	49.2	0.6	1.6	6.3	2.6	4	34.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	82% (2)	45% (60)	55.7	224.7	4	24 (45)	.15 (60)	3.03 (68)	83% (11)	9% (55)	0.88 (112)
UNLV Defense	14	44% (8)	40% (39)	-	-	-	-	.11 (63)	2.63 (19)	73% (65)	10% (55)	1.08 (108)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	56% (120)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.1 (56)	3.02 (73)	66% (28)	10% (63)	1.07 (101)
UNLV Offense	14	61% (8)	43% (83)	43.5	247.8	5.7	29 (18)	.23 (23)	3.36 (16)	73% (71)	9% (58)	1.16 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	18% (133)	31% (131)	5.2	11.5	89.8	7.8	17.4	5 (134)	10 (63)	.09 (124)	2.1 (1)	27% (14)	25% (124)	.18 (111)	3% (2)	2.1 (66)
UNLV Defense	14	56% (128)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.13 (25)	1.5 (47)	36% (17)	25% (7)	.19 (24)	8% (9)	2.2 (106)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.33 (107)	1.6 (63)	31% (79)	30% (54)	.3 (63)	5% (120)	2 (60)
UNLV Offense	14	39% (127)	40% (90)	12.7	22.1	172.6	7.8	13.6	25 (31)	6 (10)	.2 (94)	1.7 (32)	30% (43)	29% (93)	.26 (97)	5% (25)	2.1 (58)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -7.54 #90
Air Force's Offense Rating: 12.58 #72
Air Force's Defense Rating: 20.12 #110
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.54 UNLV: -0.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2 UNLV: 4.3

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -0.045 #99
UNLV's Offense Rating: 12.00 #74
UNLV's Defense Rating: 21.39 #117
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #57
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.8 #25
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 35
Air Force 29

Projected Total Points: 64

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	UNLV	51	Air Force	48	UNLV -7	Air Force	65.5	Over
2023	11/18	Air Force	27	UNLV	31	Air Force -2.5	UNLV	46.5	Over
2022	10/15	UNLV	7	Air Force	42	Air Force -10	Air Force	50.0	Under
2021	11/26	Air Force	48	UNLV	14	Air Force -18.5	Air Force	49.5	Over
2018	10/19	UNLV	35	Air Force	41	Air Force -9.5	UNLV	55.5	Over
2017	10/14	Air Force	34	UNLV	30	Air Force -9.5	UNLV	65.5	Under
2014	11/08	UNLV	21	Air Force	48	Air Force -4.5	Air Force	0
2013	11/21	Air Force	21	UNLV	41	Air Force -1	UNLV	58.5	Over
2012	09/22	UNLV	38	Air Force	35
2011	11/19	Air Force	45	UNLV	17
2010	11/18	UNLV	20	Air Force	35
2009	11/14	Air Force	45	UNLV	17
2008	10/18	UNLV	28	Air Force	29
2007	10/06	Air Force	31	UNLV	14
2006	11/24	UNLV	42	Air Force	39
2005	10/15	Air Force	42	UNLV	7
2004	09/18	UNLV	10	Air Force	27
2003	10/11	Air Force	24	UNLV	7
2001	11/17	Air Force	10	UNLV	34
2000	09/29	UNLV	34	Air Force	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	7	4	5 Overs
Air Force	13	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 4	1 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 11	6 - 2	2 - 1	4 - 1

(#90) AFA at (#99) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	UNLV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#90	#99
SP+SP+	#80	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#57
OffenseOff	#8	#28
DefenseDef	#117	#104
Spec TeamsST	#57	#70
TalentTal	#134	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

UNLV Notes(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNLV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#104
SuccessSuc	#77	#14
ExplosiveExp	#134	#93
PPAPPA	#103	#34
PowerPwr	#72	#117
SP+SP+	#59	#89
Pts POPPO	#56	#97
HavocHav	#16	#27

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#71	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#60	#39
Run ExplRExp	#112	#108
PPAExp	#60	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#18
TackleTak	-	#75

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#47
PPAExp	#124	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#26
F7 HavocF7	#55	#55
DB HavocDB	#2	#9

UNLV on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#28	#117
SuccessSuc	#84	#68
ExplosiveExp	#23	#84
PPAPPA	#56	#88
PowerPwr	#74	#110
SP+SP+	#25	#101
Pts POPPO	#33	#84
HavocHav	#41	#86

UNLV Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#1	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#47
Run ExplRExp	#9	#101
PPAExp	#23	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#85	-
OL YdsOLY	#16	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#82
TackleTak	-	#46

UNLV Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#63
PPAExp	#94	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#52
F7 HavocF7	#58	#63
DB HavocDB	#25	#120

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
UNLV -7.0 (65.5)
UNLV won vs Air Force this year (51-48)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Air Force last year (51-48)
UNLV beat Air Force in 2023 (31-27)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	275	417	66%	3459	23	9	8.3
Alex Orji (Tr)	3	3	100%	37	0	0	12.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	148	1034	12	7.0	70
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	127	650	10	5.1	37
Keyvone Lee (Tr)	100	440	6	4.4	22
Jaylon Glover (Tr)	64	384	1	6.0	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Bradley	58	931	4	16.1	56
Troy Omeire (Tr)	32	521	5	16.3	68
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	33	471	5	14.3	86
JoJo Earle (Tr)	22	258	0	11.7	37

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Zach Anrett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marsel McDuffie	112	6	2	2	3
Jake Pope (Tr)	80	3	2	1	3
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	73	8	4	0	3
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	63	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)	48	8	6	6	3
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	73	8	4	0	3
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	43	5	4	0	7
Lucas Conti	22	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	43	5	4	0	7
Quandarius Keyes	14	1	0	0	6
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	63	2	0	2	5