Air Force at UNLV - 2025 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at UNLV RebelsUNLV logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UNLV -7 (65.5) (-250)  Open: -7.0
UNLV 51 - Air Force: 48  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -12  (SP+ UNLV -11)

Projected Score: AFA: 26 - UNLV: 38 (64)
UNLV Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 597 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
 
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.551.5L 37 - 49ON
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.052.5L 35 - 44ON
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+13.550.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+7.065.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming-4.056.5W 24 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+1.548.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6.067.5W 26 - 16UY
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+7.564.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico+3.553.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 11/28 Air Force at Colorado State-2.547.5W 42 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 UNLV vs Idaho State-30.567.0W 38 - 31ON
Fri 8/29 UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.558.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/6 UNLV vs UCLA+2.554.5W 30 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.549.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UNLV at Wyoming-4.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 10/11 UNLV vs Air Force-7.065.5W 51 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 UNLV at Boise State+12.560.5L 31 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UNLV vs New Mexico-3.561.5L 35 - 40ON
Sat 11/8 UNLV at Colorado State-5.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/15 UNLV vs Utah State-4.568.5W 29 - 26UN
Fri 11/21 UNLV vs Hawai'i-2.564.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 UNLV at Nevada-7.553.0W 42 - 17OY
Fri 12/5 UNLV at Boise State+6.060.0L 21 - 38UN
Tue 12/23 UNLV vs Ohio-6.564.5L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#18 (.29)47% (20)29.848% (24)3.27 (18)26247% (21)1454.6 (13)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (123)31.310.8
UNLV#17 (.3)47% (22)34.148% (22)3.19 (24)18946% (26)2384.45 (22)#107 (.21)44% (104)2845% (103)43% (92)3.78 (78)63.41.11.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)43% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)40% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.247.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29
UNLV Defense142829.744.3%3.781.5 - - - - - 47%50%45%43%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
UNLV Offense1434.136.846.8%4.451.1224271892385.749%49%48%46%16%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
UNLV1428:4221.946%59%7.363.41.11.54.62.1528.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (24)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (18)79% (22)7% (9)0.96 (69)
UNLV Defense1447% (41)45% (103) - - - - .23 (130)3.15 (112)62% (15)9% (103)1.11 (126)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1249% (53)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
UNLV Offense1449% (69)48% (22)33.21895.732 (30).26 (11)3.19 (24)71% (75)10% (103)1.09 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (21)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (3)2.1 (2)24% (4)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (63)
UNLV Defense1450% (93)43% (92) - - - - - - 13 (6).25 (70)1.6 (70)31% (74)31% (86).2 (31)6% (54)1.9 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1250% (85)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (127)2.3 (128)
UNLV Offense1449% (69)46% (26)18.628.1237.78.512.824 (42)8 (34).37 (33)1.6 (54)30% (53)36% (16).47 (16)6% (54)2.1 (55)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -8.56  #101
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77  #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.33  #129
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00  #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5  #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -8.56   UNLV: 5.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.5   UNLV: 7.7




UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 5.91  #71
UNLV's Offense Rating: 14.41  #44
UNLV's Defense Rating: 15.29  #112
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7  #41
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.4  #14
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UNLV 38
Air Force 26


Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
UNLV 36
Air Force 28

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 33
Air Force 30

Total Points: 63
UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11UNLV51Air Force48UNLV -7Air Force65.5Over
202311/18Air Force27UNLV31Air Force -2.5UNLV46.5Over
202210/15UNLV7Air Force42Air Force -10Air Force50.0Under
202111/26Air Force48UNLV14Air Force -18.5Air Force49.5Over
201810/19UNLV35Air Force41Air Force -9.5UNLV55.5Over
201710/14Air Force34UNLV30Air Force -9.5UNLV65.5Under
201411/08UNLV21Air Force48Air Force -4.5Air Force0
201311/21Air Force21UNLV41Air Force -1UNLV58.5Over
201209/22UNLV38Air Force35
201111/19Air Force45UNLV17
201011/18UNLV20Air Force35
200911/14Air Force45UNLV17
200810/18UNLV28Air Force29
200710/06Air Force31UNLV14
200611/24UNLV42Air Force39
200510/15Air Force42UNLV7
200409/18UNLV10Air Force27
200310/11Air Force24UNLV7
200111/17Air Force10UNLV34
200009/29UNLV34Air Force13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UNLV745 Overs
Air Force1342 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 92 - 61 - 41 - 2
Road Teams9 - 116 - 22 - 14 - 1

(#101) AFA at (#71) UNLV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFAUNLV
Power RatePwr #101 #71
SP+SP+ #86 #41
Perf GradeGrade #54 #45
OffenseOff #10 #27
DefenseDef #124 #89
Spec TeamsST #66 #77
TalentTal #134 #76
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Air Force Notes
(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report
UNLV Notes
(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNLV Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #89
SuccessSuc #20 #104
ExplosiveExp #89 #112
PPAPPA #18 #107
PowerPwr #59 #112
SP+SP+ #63 #87
Pts POPPO #13 #78
HavocHav #2 #84
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNLV Def
Run GameRun #64 #109
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #103
Run ExplRExp #69 #126
PPAExp #18 #130
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #18 #112
Stuff RateStuff #2 #101
TackleTak -  #71
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNLV Def
Pass GamePass #43 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #92
Pass ExplPExl #2 #70
PPAExp #3 #70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #98 #21
F7 HavocF7 #9 #103
DB HavocDB #3 #54
UNLV on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUNLV OffAFA Def
Perf GradePerf #27 #124
SuccessSuc #22 #134
ExplosiveExp #26 #123
PPAPPA #17 #136
PowerPwr #44 #129
SP+SP+ #14 #101
Pts POPPO #22 #123
HavocHav #79 #133
UNLV Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #4 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #22 #110
Run ExplRExp #21 #133
PPAExp #11 #136
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #24 #127
Stuff RateStuff #63 #133
TackleTak -  #43
UNLV Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUNLV OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #16 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #136
Pass ExplPExl #54 #31
PPAExp #33 #135
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #57
F7 HavocF7 #103 #135
DB HavocDB #54 #127
Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
UNLV -7.0 (65.5)
UNLV won vs Air Force this year (51-48)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Air Force in 2023 (31-27)
Air Force beat UNLV in 2022 (42-7)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Dylan Carson9141944.664
Cade Harris6132145.349
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris35584216.774
Bruin Fleischmann21370617.668
Quin Smith15358423.952
Jonah Dawson12260121.753

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Peyton Zdroik366191
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Jackson Adams174332
Grady Forsythe22200
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)27541766%34592398.3
Alex Orji (Tr)33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas1481034127.070
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)127650105.137
Keyvone Lee (Tr)10044064.422
Jaylon Glover (Tr)6438416.043
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Bradley58931416.156
Troy Omeire (Tr)32521516.368
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)33471514.386
JoJo Earle (Tr)22258011.737

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marsel McDuffie1126223
Jake Pope (Tr)803213
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)488663
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Lucas Conti224310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Quandarius Keyes141006
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025