UNLV at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UNLV logo   UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos  Boise State logo
Friday, December 5th 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
Boise State -6.0 (60.0) (-180)  Open: -3.0 | 57.5
Boise State 38 - UNLV: 21  (Mountain West Championship)

 
Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UNLV 2nd straight Road Game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -7  (SP+ UNLV -1)

Projected Score: UNLV: 27 - BSU: 34 (61)
BSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
UNLV Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 UNLV vs Idaho State-30.567.0W 38 - 31ON
Fri 8/29 UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.558.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/6 UNLV vs UCLA+2.554.5W 30 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.549.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UNLV at Wyoming-4.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 10/11 UNLV vs Air Force-7.065.5W 51 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 UNLV at Boise State+12.560.5L 31 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UNLV vs New Mexico-3.561.5L 35 - 40ON
Sat 11/8 UNLV at Colorado State-5.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/15 UNLV vs Utah State-4.568.5W 29 - 26UN
Fri 11/21 UNLV vs Hawai'i-2.564.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 UNLV at Nevada-7.553.0W 42 - 17OY
Fri 12/5 UNLV at Boise State+6.060.0L 21 - 38UN
Tue 12/23 UNLV vs Ohio-6.564.5L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.551.5W 49 - 37OY
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-16.559.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+21.563.5L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-14.558.5W 41 - 25OY
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-12.560.5W 56 - 31OY
Fri 10/24 Boise State at Nevada-20.551.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-17.547.5L 7 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State+1.541.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-17.546.5W 49 - 21OY
Fri 11/28 Boise State at Utah State-1.554.5W 25 - 24UN
Fri 12/5 Boise State vs UNLV-6.060.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 12/13 Boise State vs Washington+9.555.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)34.143% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)2840% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)29.949% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)24.139% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Offense1434.134.741.7%4.260.6214202481735.761%39%43%40%14%.21
BSU Defense1424.122.338.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Defense142829.337.4%4.051.6 - - - - - 44%56%40%36%19%.11
BSU Offense1429.941.348.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UNLV1429:5921.140%70%5.649.20.61.66.32.6434.7
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense1461% (8)43% (83)43.5247.85.729 (18).23 (23)3.36 (16)73% (71)9% (58)1.16 (9)
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense1444% (8)40% (39) - - - - .11 (63)2.63 (19)73% (65)10% (55)1.08 (108)
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense1439% (127)40% (90)12.722.1172.67.813.625 (31)6 (10).2 (94)1.7 (32)30% (43)29% (93).26 (97)5% (25)2.1 (58)
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense1456% (128)36% (14) - - - - - - 17 (5).13 (25)1.5 (47)36% (17)25% (7).19 (24)8% (9)2.2 (106)
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -9.39  #99
UNLV's Offense Rating: 12.00  #74
UNLV's Defense Rating: 21.39  #117
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3  #57
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #25
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -9.39   Boise State: 4.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 4.3   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.335  #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41  #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84  #61
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00  #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 34
UNLV 27


Projected Total Points: 61
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Boise State56UNLV31Boise State -12.5Boise State60.5Over
202512/05Boise State38UNLV21Boise State -6.0Boise State60.0Under
202410/25UNLV24Boise State29Boise State -4.0Boise State64.0Under
202412/06Boise State21UNLV7Boise State -3.5Boise State57.5Under
202312/02UNLV20Boise State44Boise State -2.5Boise State58.0Over
201910/05UNLV13Boise State38Boise State -24Boise State57.0Under
201611/18Boise State42UNLV25Boise State -26.5UNLV63.0Over
201510/31UNLV27Boise State55Boise State -21Boise State53.5Over
201210/20Boise State32UNLV7
201111/05UNLV21Boise State48
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1074 Overs
UNLV014 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 53 - 53 - 10 - 4
Road Teams5 - 55 - 34 - 01 - 3

(#99) UNLV at (#67) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNLVBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #99 #67
SP+SP+ #57 #64
Perf GradeGrade #57 #86
OffenseOff #28 #81
DefenseDef #104 #77
Spec TeamsST #70 #54
TalentTal #76 #77
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
UNLV Notes
(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report
UNLV on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #28 #77
SuccessSuc #84 #27
ExplosiveExp #23 #119
PPAPPA #56 #59
PowerPwr #74 #61
SP+SP+ #25 #60
Pts POPPO #33 #24
HavocHav #41 #7
UNLV Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #1 #123
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #33
Run ExplRExp #9 #113
PPAExp #23 #72
Run BlockR Blk #85 -
OL YdsOLY #16 #34
Stuff RateStuff #40 #21
TackleTak -  #134
UNLV Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #15 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #29
Pass ExplPExl #32 #96
PPAExp #94 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #82
F7 HavocF7 #58 #3
DB HavocDB #25 #83
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffUNLV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #104
SuccessSuc #12 #14
ExplosiveExp #37 #93
PPAPPA #3 #34
PowerPwr #68 #117
SP+SP+ #55 #89
Pts POPPO #4 #97
HavocHav #20 #27
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUNLV Def
Run GameRun #23 #116
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #39
Run ExplRExp #5 #108
PPAExp #6 #63
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #19
Stuff RateStuff #58 #18
TackleTak -  #75
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffUNLV Def
Pass GamePass #92 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #14
Pass ExplPExl #119 #47
PPAExp #12 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #116 #26
F7 HavocF7 #10 #55
DB HavocDB #58 #9
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 15
Boise State -6.0 (60.0)
Boise State won vs UNLV this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat UNLV last year (38-21)
Boise State beat UNLV in 2024 (21-7)
Boise State beat UNLV in 2023 (44-20)

  
UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)27541766%34592398.3
Alex Orji (Tr)33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas1481034127.070
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)127650105.137
Keyvone Lee (Tr)10044064.422
Jaylon Glover (Tr)6438416.043
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Bradley58931416.156
Troy Omeire (Tr)32521516.368
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)33471514.386
JoJo Earle (Tr)22258011.737

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Zach Anrett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marsel McDuffie1126223
Jake Pope (Tr)803213
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)488663
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Lucas Conti224310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Quandarius Keyes141006
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Malik Sherrod (Tr)8541844.944
Maddux Madsen578141.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Latrell Caples51616312.134
Chris Marshall30574219.146
Chase Penry30394113.146
Matt Lauter3733028.920

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield1059013
Marco Notarainni776382
Zion Washington663112
Boen Phelps664150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Braxton Fely247650
Sterling Lane63310
Malakai Williams (Tr)114370
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Earby602109
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey (Tr)387115