UNLV at Sam Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, August 29th 2025 (9:30 PM EDT)
UNLV -13.5 (58.5) (-500) Open: -13.5 | 58.5
UNLV 38 - Sam Houston: 21

Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

Our Line: UNLV -27 (SP+ UNLV -35)
Projected Score: UNLV: 40 - SHSU: 13 (53)
UNLV Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
UNLV Travel: 1189 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (18 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
UNLV Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UNLV's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	UNLV vs Idaho State	-30.5	67.0	W 38 - 31	O	N
Fri 8/29	UNLV vs Sam Houston	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UNLV vs UCLA	+2.5	54.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UNLV at Miami (OH)	-2.5	49.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UNLV at Wyoming	-4.5	50.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/11	UNLV vs Air Force	-7.0	65.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	UNLV at Boise State	+12.5	60.5	L 31 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UNLV vs New Mexico	-3.5	61.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/8	UNLV at Colorado State	-5.5	60.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/15	UNLV vs Utah State	-4.5	68.5	W 29 - 26	U	N
Fri 11/21	UNLV vs Hawai'i	-2.5	64.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/29	UNLV at Nevada	-7.5	53.0	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Fri 12/5	UNLV at Boise State	+6.0	60.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Tue 12/23	UNLV vs Ohio	-6.5	64.5	L 10 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+9.5	60.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 8/29	Sam Houston vs UNLV	+13.5	58.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Sam Houston at Hawai'i	+7.0	47.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Sam Houston at Texas	+39.5	51.5	L 0 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	-1.5	53.5	L 10 - 37	U	N
Thu 10/9	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+7.0	53.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Wed 10/15	Sam Houston vs UTEP	+3.5	46.5	L 17 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+16.5	48.0	L 14 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/8	Sam Houston at Oregon State	+21.0	52.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Sam Houston vs Delaware	+11.5	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee	+6.5	53.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Sam Houston vs Florida International	+10.5	50.5	L 16 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	#17 (.3)	47% (22)	34.1	48% (22)	3.19 (24)	189	46% (26)	238	4.45 (22)	#107 (.21)	44% (104)	28	45% (103)	43% (92)	3.78 (78)	63.4	1.1	1.5
SHSU	#131 (.01)	37% (121)	17.8	40% (104)	2.67 (116)	133	35% (127)	184	2.79 (129)	#109 (.22)	48% (129)	37.8	47% (118)	50% (133)	3.85 (89)	59.4	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)		43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)		40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)		41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)		47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	34.7	46.8%	4.45	1.1	22	427	189	238	5.7	49%	49%	48%	46%	16%	.3
SHSU Defense	12	37.8	37.8	47.8%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	47%	50%	14%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.3	44.3%	3.78	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	50%	45%	43%	15%	.21
SHSU Offense	12	17.8	17.8	36.9%	2.79	1.3	17	317	133	184	4.3	43%	55%	40%	35%	20%	.01

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UNLV	14	28:42	21.9	46%	59%	7.3	63.4	1.1	1.5	4.6	2.1	5	28.2
Sam Houston	12	28:30	16.7	22%	30%	6.4	59.4	1.3	1.5	5.3	1.8	3	26.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense	14	49% (69)	48% (22)	33.2	189	5.7	32 (30)	.26 (11)	3.19 (24)	71% (75)	10% (103)	1.09 (21)
SHSU Defense	12	51% (80)	47% (118)	-	-	-	-	.15 (95)	2.89 (72)	68% (45)	10% (61)	0.96 (70)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense	14	47% (41)	45% (103)	-	-	-	-	.23 (130)	3.15 (112)	62% (15)	9% (103)	1.11 (126)
SHSU Offense	12	43% (116)	40% (104)	30.8	132.8	4.3	10 (122)	.07 (91)	2.67 (116)	66% (107)	13% (128)	1.09 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense	14	49% (69)	46% (26)	18.6	28.1	237.7	8.5	12.8	24 (42)	8 (34)	.37 (33)	1.6 (54)	30% (53)	36% (16)	.47 (16)	6% (54)	2.1 (55)
SHSU Defense	12	47% (57)	50% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.36 (115)	1.5 (51)	27% (130)	35% (126)	.17 (21)	5% (115)	1.8 (11)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense	14	50% (93)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.25 (70)	1.6 (70)	31% (74)	31% (86)	.2 (31)	6% (54)	1.9 (29)
SHSU Offense	12	55% (21)	35% (127)	17.8	32.4	184	5.7	10.4	12 (103)	10 (60)	.01 (133)	1.4 (129)	35% (124)	22% (135)	.01 (135)	7% (106)	2 (66)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -0.88 #71
UNLV's Offense Rating: 14.41 #44
UNLV's Defense Rating: 15.29 #112
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7 #41
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #14
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -0.88 Sam Houston: -23.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 7.7 Sam Houston: -27.2

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -23.37 #134
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 0.53 #124
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 20.07 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.2 #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.5 #130
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 40
Sam Houston 13

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
UNLV 18
Sam Houston 17

Total Points: 34

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 36
Sam Houston 23

Total Points: 59

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/29	Sam Houston	21	UNLV	38	UNLV -13.5	UNLV	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	0	0	1 Overs
UNLV	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#71) UNLV at (#134) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNLV	SHSU
Power RatePwr	#71	#134
SP+SP+	#41	#135
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#133
OffenseOff	#27	#133
DefenseDef	#89	#119
Spec TeamsST	#77	#36
TalentTal	#76	#121
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

UNLV Notes(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report

Sam Houston Notes(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report

UNLV on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	SHSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#27	#119
SuccessSuc	#22	#129
ExplosiveExp	#26	#59
PPAPPA	#17	#109
PowerPwr	#44	#130
SP+SP+	#14	#135
Pts POPPO	#22	#89
HavocHav	#79	#100

UNLV Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#102
Run SuccessRSuc	#22	#118
Run ExplRExp	#21	#70
PPAExp	#11	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#24	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#95
TackleTak	-	#123

UNLV Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#16	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#133
Pass ExplPExl	#54	#51
PPAExp	#33	#115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#66	#104
F7 HavocF7	#103	#61
DB HavocDB	#54	#115

Sam Houston on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	UNLV Def
Perf GradePerf	#133	#89
SuccessSuc	#121	#104
ExplosiveExp	#71	#112
PPAPPA	#131	#107
PowerPwr	#124	#112
SP+SP+	#130	#87
Pts POPPO	#129	#78
HavocHav	#132	#84

Sam Houston Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#122	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#103
Run ExplRExp	#20	#126
PPAExp	#91	#130
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#116	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#132	#101
TackleTak	-	#71

Sam Houston Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#129	#70
PPAExp	#133	#70
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#74	#21
F7 HavocF7	#128	#103
DB HavocDB	#106	#54

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in BBVA Compass Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 84°( - Hum: 78%)
- Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 1
UNLV 13.5 (58.5)
UNLV won at Sam Houston this year (38-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	275	417	66%	3459	23	9	8.3
Alex Orji (Tr)	3	3	100%	37	0	0	12.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	148	1034	12	7.0	70
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	127	650	10	5.1	37
Keyvone Lee (Tr)	100	440	6	4.4	22
Jaylon Glover (Tr)	64	384	1	6.0	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Bradley	58	931	4	16.1	56
Troy Omeire (Tr)	32	521	5	16.3	68
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	33	471	5	14.3	86
JoJo Earle (Tr)	22	258	0	11.7	37

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marsel McDuffie	112	6	2	2	3
Jake Pope (Tr)	80	3	2	1	3
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	73	8	4	0	3
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	63	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)	48	8	6	6	3
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	73	8	4	0	3
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	43	5	4	0	7
Lucas Conti	22	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	43	5	4	0	7
Quandarius Keyes	14	1	0	0	6
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	63	2	0	2	5

SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	104	182	57%	1108	5	4	6.1
Landyn Locke	71	141	50%	765	4	4	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landan Brown	84	487	5	5.8	63
Elijah Green (Tr)	58	391	2	6.7	80
Alton McCaskill (Tr)	88	371	1	4.2	52
Hunter Watson	74	276	2	3.7	55

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Reed	30	460	5	15.3	54
Grady O'Neill (Tr)	38	392	1	10.3	29
Landan Brown	37	237	0	6.4	24
Tim Burns Jr.	12	228	1	19.0	59

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Fish (Tr)	78	6	1	1	0
CJ Brown (Tr)	64	2	0	0	4
Tyler Bailey	45	1	1	0	2
Cecil Powell (Tr)	42	4	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)	26	9	5	5	0
Chauncey Chidi	31	4	3	0	0
Dylan Frazier	41	4	2	2	2
Dean Ford	32	6	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Emon Allen	40	4	0	5
CJ Brown (Tr)	64	2	0	4
Cecil Powell (Tr)	42	4	1	4