UNLV at Sam Houston - 2025 Matchup Preview
UNLV logo UNLV Rebels vs Sam Houston BearkatsSam Houston logo
Friday, August 29th 2025 (9:30 PM EDT)
UNLV -13.5 (58.5) (-500)  Open: -13.5 | 58.5
UNLV 38 - Sam Houston: 21

 
Rebels (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 25 (35 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 2.5 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: UNLV -17   (SP+ UNLV -17)
Projected Score: UNLV: 38 - SHSU: 21 (59)
UNLV Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
UNLV Travel: 1189 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bearkats (0 - 3) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 39 (22 - 39 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.5 - 9.5 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 UNLV vs Idaho State-30.567.0W 38 - 31ON
Fri 8/29 UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.558.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/6 UNLV vs UCLA+2.554.5W 30 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.548.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UNLV at Wyoming-1.5
Sat 10/11 UNLV vs Air Force-13.5
Sat 10/18 UNLV at Boise State+8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UNLV vs New Mexico-16
Sat 11/8 UNLV at Colorado State-3.5
Sat 11/15 UNLV vs Utah State-13.5
Sat 11/22 UNLV vs Hawai'i-10
Sat 11/29 UNLV at Nevada-13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+40.551.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State+7
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+3
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+9
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+14
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+18.5
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+7.5
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee-1
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+8.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#35 (.32)50% (31)35.347% (52)3.12 (56)20255% (16)2284.74 (40)#86 (.16)47% (118)2550% (118)47% (112)3.58 (69)1040.72.3
SHSU#123 (.05)37% (111)21.738% (105)2.79 (87)13637% (108)1853.14 (113)#85 (.16)44% (103)38.740% (72)49% (118)4.38 (100)6811.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)43% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)40% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Offense335.335.350%4.740.7224302022285.758%42%47%55%12%.32
SHSU Defense338.738.744.5%4.381.7 - - - - - 44%56%40%49%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Defense3252547.1%3.582.3 - - - - - 37%60%50%47%17%.16
SHSU Offense321.721.737.4%3.141183211361854.244%55%38%37%19%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UNLV329:4921.742%100%9.71040.72.362.3130.1
Sam Houston328:0917.714%30%76811.752127.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense358% (26)47% (52)35.72025.77 (38).16 (59)3.12 (56)71% (67)10% (93)0.91 (82)
SHSU Defense344% (30)40% (72) - - - - -.08 (24)2.97 (89)69% (66)9% (80)0.68 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense337% (4)50% (118) - - - - .26 (119)2.55 (47)57% (28)9% (80)1.25 (118)
SHSU Offense344% (103)38% (105)32.3135.74.24 (79).06 (93)2.79 (87)73% (66)12% (114)1.13 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense342% (111)55% (16)17.322.722810.113.26 (34)1 (23).55 (20)1.6 (59)25% (24)36% (42).34 (68)2% (10)1.6 (114)
SHSU Defense356% (108)49% (118) - - - - - - 2 (56).36 (110)1.6 (89)31% (90)36% (116).17 (47)7% (45)1.8 (52)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense360% (129)47% (112) - - - - - - 6 (2).22 (71)1.4 (33)28% (121)35% (112).02 (22)8% (23)1.6 (29)
SHSU Offense355% (37)37% (108)18.73118569.92 (102)3 (92).07 (121)1.3 (112)40% (130)22% (116)-.07 (131)7% (110)1.7 (105)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -1.04 #82
UNLV's Offense Rating: 12.89 #69
UNLV's Defense Rating: 13.93 #97
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #75
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #55
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #96

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -1.04   Sam Houston: -18.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -1.8   Sam Houston: -18.6




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -18.575 #125
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: -0.11 #132
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 18.43 #113
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.5 - 9.5
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #126
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.9 #126
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #117

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


UNLV Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 35.3
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 25

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UNLV 38
Sam Houston 21


Total Points: 59

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 21.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 38.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.7

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/29Sam Houston21UNLV38UNLVUNLV -13.5UNLV58.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston001 Overs
UNLV110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#82) UNLV Info
Power Rating: -1.04 #82
Offense Rating: 12.89 #69
Defense Rating: 13.93 #97
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #96
Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.74 PPO
Avg Run Success 47%
Great Pass Success 55%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 1 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

UNLV Notes
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
(4/7) DC Arnett resigned. Paul Guenther now Int DC
(3/29) QB Colandrea (UVA) vs Orji (Mich). Interesting
(3/29) RB Thomas good, Lee (MSU), Glover (Utah) added
(3/29) WR rebuild, 5 portal adds. 3 portal TE's

UNLV Highlights
UNLV in Undefeated
UNLV is Undefeated away from Home

UNLV Secondary is very good (#23)
UNLV has a great TO Margin (#28)
UNLV defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

UNLV Deficiencies
UNLV has a really bad Offense Away from Home
UNLV Commits a Lot of Penalties (#132)
UNLV Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
UNLV has a bad defense (#118)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSHSUUNLV
OverallOver#98#24
OffenseOff#110#15
DefenseDef#71#52
Special TeamsST#43#83
PassingPass#104#13
RushingRush#103#15
Run BlockRBLK#91#39
Pass BlockPBLK#96#99
Route RunningWR Rt#103#18
TacklingTkl#96#102
Run DefenseR Def#48#77
Pass Rush DefPRush#59#50
Coverage DefCov#86#24

Rematch from Week 1
UNLV 13.5 (58.5)
UNLV won at Sam Houston this year (38-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in BBVA Compass Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNLV | SHSU
Depth Chart: UNLV | SHSU
Rosters: UNLV | SHSU
(#125) Sam Houston Info
Power Rating: -18.575 #125
Offense Rating: -0.11 #132
Defense Rating: 18.43 #113
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.9 #126
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #117
Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 2.5 - 9.5

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.14 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Poor OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Sam Houston Notes
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. 2 portals inc. Green (IU)
(3/26) WR some exp, replacing a lot. 2 portal adds

Sam Houston Highlights

Sam Houston Deficiencies
Sam Houston offense is really bad (#111)
Sam Houston Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#112)
Sam Houston offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#113)
Sam Houston run game is really bad (#105)
Sam Houston pass game is really bad (#108)
Sam Houston offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Sam Houston Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Sam Houston has a bad defense (#103)
Sam Houston has a bad red zone defense (#100)


  
UNLV's OC Corey Dennis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)496575%6476110.0
Alex Orji (Tr)33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas3227348.570
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)3017515.837
Keyvone Lee (Tr)136615.119
Jaylon Glover (Tr)154803.29
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Bradley13262120.249
Var'Keyes Gumms (Tr)683113.817
JoJo Earle (Tr)665010.832
Troy Omeire (Tr)661110.221

View UNLV's Full Roster
UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Pope (Tr)220000
Marsel McDuffie191111
Aamaris Brown (Tr)173202
Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu172011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)173202
Jalen Lee (Tr)71100
Marsel McDuffie191111
Landen Thomas (Tr)51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quandarius Keyes00003
Aamaris Brown (Tr)173202
Justin Flowe (Tr)91001

Sam Houston's OC Zack Patterson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson305258%310016.0
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)203165%177125.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hunter Watson2410824.555
Landan Brown139417.253
Elijah Green (Tr)247603.211
Alton McCaskill (Tr)117216.552
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Green (Tr)11124111.335
Grady O'Neill (Tr)665010.829
Malik Phillips660010.022
Tim Burns Jr.159159.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)211003
Emon Allen183001
Antavious Fish (Tr)170000
Chatavies Johnson170000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
AJ Edwards163102
JaMair Diaz (Tr)131110
Tokyo Gordon122100
Chauncey Chidi112100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Brown (Tr)211003
Cecil Powell (Tr)120003
AJ Edwards163102