Hawai'i at UNLV - 2025 Matchup Preview
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at UNLV RebelsUNLV logo
Friday, November 21st 2025 (10:30 PM EST)
UNLV -2.5 (64.5) (-135)  Open: -3.0
UNLV 38 - Hawai'i: 10  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
UNLV 2nd straight Home Game
HAW coming off BYE
UNLV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -10.5  (SP+ UNLV -7)

Projected Score: HAW: 27 - UNLV: 37 (64)
UNLV Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 2756 miles, 2 hrs behind
Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 UNLV vs Idaho State-30.567.0W 38 - 31ON
Fri 8/29 UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.558.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/6 UNLV vs UCLA+2.554.5W 30 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.549.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UNLV at Wyoming-4.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 10/11 UNLV vs Air Force-7.065.5W 51 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 UNLV at Boise State+12.560.5L 31 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UNLV vs New Mexico-3.561.5L 35 - 40ON
Sat 11/8 UNLV at Colorado State-5.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/15 UNLV vs Utah State-4.568.5W 29 - 26UN
Fri 11/21 UNLV vs Hawai'i-2.564.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 UNLV at Nevada-7.553.0W 42 - 17OY
Fri 12/5 UNLV at Boise State+6.060.0L 21 - 38UN
Tue 12/23 UNLV vs Ohio-6.564.5L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
UNLV#17 (.3)47% (22)34.148% (22)3.19 (24)18946% (26)2384.45 (22)#107 (.21)44% (104)2845% (103)43% (92)3.78 (78)63.41.11.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)43% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)40% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense132925.841.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18
UNLV Defense142829.744.3%3.781.5 - - - - - 47%50%45%43%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense1324.135.441.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
UNLV Offense1434.136.846.8%4.451.1224271892385.749%49%48%46%16%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
UNLV1428:4221.946%59%7.363.41.11.54.62.1528.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)
UNLV Defense1447% (41)45% (103) - - - - .23 (130)3.15 (112)62% (15)9% (103)1.11 (126)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
UNLV Offense1449% (69)48% (22)33.21895.732 (30).26 (11)3.19 (24)71% (75)10% (103)1.09 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)
UNLV Defense1450% (93)43% (92) - - - - - - 13 (6).25 (70)1.6 (70)31% (74)31% (86).2 (31)6% (54)1.9 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
UNLV Offense1449% (69)46% (26)18.628.1237.78.512.824 (42)8 (34).37 (33)1.6 (54)30% (53)36% (16).47 (16)6% (54)2.1 (55)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -9.82  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -9.82   UNLV: 5.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: 0.9   UNLV: 7.7




UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 5.91  #71
UNLV's Offense Rating: 14.41  #44
UNLV's Defense Rating: 15.29  #112
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7  #41
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.4  #14
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
UNLV 37
Hawai'i 27


Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 35
UNLV 31

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 33
Hawai'i 28

Total Points: 61
UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/21UNLV38Hawai'i10UNLV -2.5UNLV64.5Under
202411/09Hawai'i27UNLV29UNLV -12.0Hawai'i51.5Over
202309/30UNLV44Hawai'i20UNLV -10.5UNLV58.5Over
202211/19Hawai'i31UNLV25UNLV -11Hawai'i56.5Under
202111/13UNLV27Hawai'i13Hawai'i -3.5UNLV55.5Under
202012/12Hawai'i38UNLV21Hawai'i -19.5UNLV60.0Under
201911/16UNLV7Hawai'i21Hawai'i -6.5Hawai'i72.5Under
201811/17Hawai'i35UNLV28Hawai'i -6Hawai'i71.0Under
201711/04UNLV31Hawai'i23UNLV -7UNLV59.5Under
201610/15Hawai'i38UNLV41Hawai'i -10UNLV54.0Over
201511/07UNLV41Hawai'i21UNLV -6UNLV53.5Over
201411/22Hawai'i37UNLV35Hawai'i -8UNLV0
201310/12UNLV39Hawai'i37UNLV -7Hawai'i0
201211/24Hawai'i48UNLV10
201109/17UNLV40Hawai'i20
201012/04Hawai'i59UNLV21
200909/19UNLV34Hawai'i33
200709/15UNLV14Hawai'i49
200609/16Hawai'i42UNLV13
200309/19UNLV33Hawai'i22
200012/01Hawai'i32UNLV34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UNLV1284 Overs
Hawai'i957 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 58 - 55 - 43 - 1
Road Teams5 - 165 - 81 - 34 - 5

(#108) HAW at (#71) UNLV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHAWUNLV
Power RatePwr #108 #71
SP+SP+ #68 #41
Perf GradeGrade #100 #45
OffenseOff #107 #27
DefenseDef #96 #89
Spec TeamsST #71 #77
TalentTal #125 #76
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
UNLV Notes
(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffUNLV Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #89
SuccessSuc #88 #104
ExplosiveExp #29 #112
PPAPPA #62 #107
PowerPwr #118 #112
SP+SP+ #75 #87
Pts POPPO #61 #78
HavocHav #16 #84
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffUNLV Def
Run GameRun #111 #109
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #103
Run ExplRExp #90 #126
PPAExp #118 #130
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #112
Stuff RateStuff #98 #101
TackleTak -  #71
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffUNLV Def
Pass GamePass #45 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #92
Pass ExplPExl #61 #70
PPAExp #47 #70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #21
F7 HavocF7 #13 #103
DB HavocDB #39 #54
UNLV on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUNLV OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #27 #96
SuccessSuc #22 #67
ExplosiveExp #26 #87
PPAPPA #17 #72
PowerPwr #44 #87
SP+SP+ #14 #65
Pts POPPO #22 #41
HavocHav #79 #63
UNLV Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #4 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #22 #74
Run ExplRExp #21 #76
PPAExp #11 #66
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #24 #119
Stuff RateStuff #63 #117
TackleTak -  #128
UNLV Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUNLV OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #16 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #26 #58
Pass ExplPExl #54 #77
PPAExp #33 #71
Pass Block/RushP Blk #66 #29
F7 HavocF7 #103 #82
DB HavocDB #54 #41
Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
UNLV -2.5 (64.5)
UNLV won vs Hawai'i this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Hawai'i last year (29-27)
UNLV beat Hawai'i in 2023 (44-20)
Hawai'i beat UNLV in 2022 (31-25)

  
HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)27541766%34592398.3
Alex Orji (Tr)33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas1481034127.070
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)127650105.137
Keyvone Lee (Tr)10044064.422
Jaylon Glover (Tr)6438416.043
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Bradley58931416.156
Troy Omeire (Tr)32521516.368
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)33471514.386
JoJo Earle (Tr)22258011.737

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marsel McDuffie1126223
Jake Pope (Tr)803213
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)488663
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Lucas Conti224310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Quandarius Keyes141006
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025