Pittsburgh at West Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Pittsburgh logo Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia MountaineersWest Virginia logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Pittsburgh -6.5 (54.5) (-280)  Open: -2.5 | 57.5
West Virginia 31 - Pittsburgh: 24

 
Panthers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Pittsburgh -12  (SP+ PITT -16)
Projected Score: PITT: 33 - WVU: 21 (54)
PITT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
PITT Travel: 55 miles
Mountaineers (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (60 - 26)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (23 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.053.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.554.5W 48 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.556.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.554.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.552.5W 53 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.551.5W 35 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.555.5L 15 - 37UN
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.561.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.549.5L 7 - 38UN
Sat 12/27 Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.056.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 West Virginia at Ohio-3.558.5L 10 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.554.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 West Virginia at Kansas+12.554.5L 10 - 41UN
Sat 9/27 West Virginia vs Utah+13.546.5L 14 - 48ON
Fri 10/3 West Virginia at BYU+19.546.5L 24 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 West Virginia at UCF+6.546.5L 13 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 West Virginia vs TCU+16.555.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 11/1 West Virginia at Houston+13.548.5W 45 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 West Virginia vs Colorado-6.551.5W 29 - 22UY
Sat 11/15 West Virginia at Arizona State+10.046.5L 23 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.553.5L 0 - 49UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#59 (.19)41% (95)33.741% (96)2.62 (123)10841% (76)2543.65 (76)#33 (.09)35% (11)24.834% (7)37% (27)3.81 (83)64.71.41.5
WVU#119 (.07)37% (122)21.839% (114)2.66 (117)16134% (130)1893.53 (85)#64 (.16)40% (54)30.839% (34)43% (81)3.9 (94)561.51.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
WVU#63 (.2)43% (69)44% (75)3.05 (64)19641% (73)2104.6 (16)#124 (.3)45% (103)41% (46)49% (128)4.74 (131)33.91.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Offense1333.73340.6%3.651.4193621082543.643%55%41%41%18%.19
WVU Defense1230.828.240.5%3.91.7 - - - - - 49%49%39%43%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Defense1324.824.635.2%3.811.5 - - - - - 46%52%34%37%19%.09
WVU Offense1221.822.736.8%3.531.5193501611893.757%42%39%34%16%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Pittsburgh1326:2318.933%61%7.164.71.41.56.82.2633.3
West Virginia1226:1818.830%45%5.8561.51.76.72.4128.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Offense1343% (115)41% (96)30108.53.618 (70).06 (96)2.62 (123)67% (96)11% (106)1.01 (54)
WVU Defense1249% (58)39% (34) - - - - .02 (26)2.42 (8)73% (80)12% (14)0.95 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Defense1346% (27)34% (7) - - - - -.03 (9)2.34 (5)69% (53)13% (9)0.98 (80)
WVU Offense1257% (20)39% (114)43.6160.73.722 (36)-.02 (126)2.66 (117)62% (121)10% (103)0.89 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Offense1355% (22)41% (76)20.332.6253.87.812.528 (8)14 (127).34 (39)1.7 (28)33% (104)31% (63).35 (53)8% (123)2 (69)
WVU Defense1249% (82)43% (81) - - - - - - 11 (22).33 (105)1.7 (125)34% (28)33% (113).42 (122)6% (70)2.1 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Defense1352% (107)37% (27) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (53)1.6 (110)37% (11)26% (18).17 (20)6% (49)2.1 (95)
WVU Offense1242% (116)34% (130)1627.3188.96.911.810 (128)11 (88).2 (98)1.7 (23)30% (54)26% (114).21 (98)6% (59)2.1 (51)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 9.96  #42
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 13.68  #47
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.72  #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 9.96   West Virginia: -2.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 9.0   West Virginia: -7.2




West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: -2.49  #81
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 3.22  #106
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 6.00  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 808.00  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
West Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
West Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #93
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #102
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.3  #90

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.6

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 33
West Virginia 21


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
West Virginia 30
Pittsburgh 24

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Pittsburgh 31
West Virginia 23

Total Points: 54
West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.7
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

West Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13West Virginia31Pittsburgh24Pittsburgh -6.5West Virginia54.5Over
202409/14Pittsburgh38West Virginia34West Virginia -2.5Pittsburgh60.5Over
202309/16West Virginia17Pittsburgh6West Virginia -2.5West Virginia48.0Under
202209/01Pittsburgh38West Virginia31Pittsburgh -7.5West Virginia50.0Over
201111/25West Virginia21Pittsburgh20
201011/26Pittsburgh10West Virginia35
200911/27West Virginia19Pittsburgh16
200811/28Pittsburgh19West Virginia15
200712/01West Virginia9Pittsburgh13
200611/16Pittsburgh27West Virginia45
200511/24West Virginia45Pittsburgh13
200411/25Pittsburgh16West Virginia13
200311/15West Virginia52Pittsburgh31
200111/24West Virginia17Pittsburgh23
200011/23Pittsburgh38West Virginia28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
West Virginia833 Overs
Pittsburgh711 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 43 - 11 - 12 - 0
Road Teams4 - 111 - 30 - 21 - 1

(#42) PITT at (#81) WVU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPITTWVU
Power RatePwr #42 #81
SP+SP+ #36 #93
Perf GradeGrade #59 #130
OffenseOff #100 #132
DefenseDef #24 #121
Spec TeamsST #69 #59
TalentTal #58 #50
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #56
Pittsburgh Notes
(11/16) No show vs ND, non competitive. Pitt isn't good
(10/25) Four W's in a row, killed NC St, Heintschel 400+
(10/12) QB Heintschel saved season. Chance 7-2 hosting ND
(10/9) Ton of injuries, and a lot of DL. See injury report
(10/4) QB Holstein benched, Fr Mason Heintschel starting
(10/4) RB D Reid missed L'ville, out for BC game
(10/4) QB Heintschel much better, raises Offense, new #1
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
Pittsburgh Injury Report
West Virginia Notes
(10/27) Def spirited vs TCU, Fox 300 yds, but can't run
(10/18) Getting real bad, killed by UCF. Just too many injuries
(10/18) Outgained 550+ to 200 yds vs UCF? Coming unglued
(10/4) QB1 is Fr Khalil Wilkins, mobile and not ready. Woof
(10/1) Starting QB Marchiol redshirting & transferring
(9/20) Killed by KU, just don't have Off weapons or QB
(9/14) Gutsy comeback W vs Pitt. Plays hard for staff
(9/8) Star RB Jahiem White out for season (knee)
(9/8) Starting WR J Bray out for season (leg)
(8/30) Ran for nearly 400< Marchiol efficient vs RMU
(8/20) DE/LB Robinson likely academically ineligible
(6/11) RB White a top B12 RB, Edwards (FCS) 1k LY
West Virginia Injury Report
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffWVU Def
Perf GradePerf #100 #121
SuccessSuc #95 #54
ExplosiveExp #9 #125
PPAPPA #59 #64
PowerPwr #47 #51
SP+SP+ #33 #90
Pts POPPO #76 #94
HavocHav #120 #28
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffWVU Def
Run GameRun #85 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #34
Run ExplRExp #54 #67
PPAExp #96 #26
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #8
Stuff RateStuff #129 #17
TackleTak -  #119
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffWVU Def
Pass GamePass #119 #125
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #81
Pass ExplPExl #28 #125
PPAExp #39 #105
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #85 #102
F7 HavocF7 #106 #14
DB HavocDB #123 #70
West Virginia on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWVU OffPITT Def
Perf GradePerf #132 #24
SuccessSuc #122 #11
ExplosiveExp #81 #120
PPAPPA #119 #33
PowerPwr #106 #38
SP+SP+ #102 #50
Pts POPPO #85 #83
HavocHav #79 #16
West Virginia Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WVU OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #132 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #7
Run ExplRExp #98 #80
PPAExp #126 #9
Run BlockR Blk #129 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #5
Stuff RateStuff #106 #6
TackleTak -  #11
West Virginia Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWVU OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #127 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #27
Pass ExplPExl #23 #110
PPAExp #98 #53
Pass Block/RushP Blk #58 #54
F7 HavocF7 #103 #9
DB HavocDB #59 #49
Program Comparison
WVU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Pittsburgh 6.5 (54.5)
West Virginia won vs Pittsburgh this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat West Virginia last year (38-34)
West Virginia beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (17-6)
Pittsburgh beat West Virginia in 2022 (38-31)

  
PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Eli Holstein7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
Desmond Reid6027824.653
Juelz Goff6927053.917
Eli Holstein368812.431
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams52741714.367
Kenny Johnson47658514.042
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)24422417.684
Desmond Reid23317213.850

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kyle Louis798333
Braylan Lovelace796162
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Kyle Louis798333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rashad Battle422105
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004

WVU's OC Rich Rodriguez (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Scotty Fox Jr.10117059%1276767.5
Nicco Marchiol669867%720227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diore Hubbard9633543.529
Cyncir Bowers6324924.026
Khalil Wilkins5824324.222
Scotty Fox Jr.8420132.459
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Vaughn (Tr)35540415.446
Jeff Weimer (Tr)21383218.275
Rodney Gallagher2824308.726
Grayson Barnes (Tr)21232211.034

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fred Perry (Tr)7810323
Darrian Lewis (Tr)751010
Reid Carrico698551
Chase Wilson (Tr)465312
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Carrico698551
Fred Perry (Tr)7810323
Chase Wilson (Tr)465312
Devin Grant (Tr)205301
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr. (Tr)302007
Jason Chambers (Tr)343004
Derek Carter (Tr)312004