Notre Dame at Pittsburgh - 2025 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo (#9)Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers(#22)Pittsburgh logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Notre Dame -12.5 (55.5) (-485)  Open: -10.0
Notre Dame 37 - Pittsburgh: 15

 
Fighting Irish (10 - 2) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Wind: 12.4 MPH
PITT coming off BYE
Our Line: Notre Dame -13.5  (SP+ ND -15.5)

Projected Score: ND: 35 - PITT: 22 (57)
ND Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ND Travel: 335 miles
Panthers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Notre Dame at Miami-2.553.5L 24 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Notre Dame vs Texas A&M-7.548.5L 40 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Notre Dame vs Purdue-24.551.5W 56 - 30OY
Sat 9/27 Notre Dame at Arkansas-5.564.5W 56 - 13OY
Sat 10/4 Notre Dame vs Boise State-21.563.5W 28 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 Notre Dame vs NC State-23.559.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Notre Dame vs USC-10.560.5W 34 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Notre Dame at Boston College-31.555.5W 25 - 10UN
Sat 11/8 Notre Dame vs Navy-30.554.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/15 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh-12.555.5W 37 - 15UY
Sat 11/22 Notre Dame vs Syracuse-36.551.5W 70 - 7OY
Sat 11/29 Notre Dame at Stanford-32.550.5W 49 - 20ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 3, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.053.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.554.5W 48 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.556.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.554.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.552.5W 53 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.551.5W 35 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.555.5L 15 - 37UN
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.561.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.549.5L 7 - 38UN
Sat 12/27 Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#4 (.36)49% (10)4247% (25)3.05 (50)20451% (6)2554.79 (6)#12 (.04)36% (13)17.638% (20)36% (16)2.58 (6)53.10.81.9
PITT#57 (.19)41% (94)33.741% (96)2.63 (122)11841% (75)2743.65 (74)#24 (.08)35% (11)24.834% (7)37% (23)3.81 (82)67.41.81.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense124238.249%4.790.8234602042555.953%45%47%51%13%.36
PITT Defense1324.825.135.1%3.811.6 - - - - - 46%52%34%37%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1217.61736.4%2.581.9 - - - - - 43%56%38%36%18%.04
PITT Offense1333.736.640.6%3.651.8213911182743.643%55%41%41%18%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1229:1722.548%55%5.553.10.81.95.82.8732.5
Pittsburgh1328:5520.833%61%7.367.41.81.67.72.4633.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1253% (38)47% (25)34.8204.45.938 (11).25 (11)3.05 (50)62% (122)8% (36)1.16 (8)
PITT Defense1346% (26)34% (7) - - - - -.06 (7)2.34 (6)69% (53)13% (8)0.96 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1243% (6)38% (20) - - - - .04 (37)2.74 (39)71% (66)9% (77)0.89 (32)
PITT Offense1343% (115)41% (96)33.1117.73.618 (70).06 (97)2.63 (122)67% (97)11% (107)1.01 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1245% (95)51% (6)18.126.8255.19.514.125 (33)6 (34).45 (10)1.7 (25)29% (37)44% (2).65 (3)5% (35)2 (65)
PITT Defense1352% (109)37% (23) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (53)1.6 (110)37% (8)26% (19).17 (20)6% (47)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1256% (132)36% (16) - - - - - - 21 (1).09 (8)1.6 (93)36% (9)26% (24).17 (17)9% (3)2.1 (84)
PITT Offense1355% (23)41% (75)22.235.7273.57.712.329 (8)15 (127).34 (40)1.7 (29)33% (103)31% (63).35 (53)8% (123)2 (66)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 28.73  #3
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 26.69  #6
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.21  #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1060.00  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3  #5
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.1  #7
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 28.73   Pittsburgh: 13.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 24.3   Pittsburgh: 9.0




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 13.225  #31
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 20.31  #25
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.86  #34
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 35
Pittsburgh 22


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 30
Pittsburgh 28

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 32
Pittsburgh 26

Total Points: 58
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Pittsburgh15Notre Dame37Notre Dame -12.5Notre Dame55.5Under
202310/28Notre Dame58Pittsburgh7Notre Dame -21Notre Dame45.5Over
202010/24Pittsburgh3Notre Dame45Notre Dame -10Notre Dame43.5Over
201810/13Notre Dame19Pittsburgh14Notre Dame -21Pittsburgh56.0Under
201511/07Pittsburgh30Notre Dame42Notre Dame -7.5Notre Dame52.5Over
201311/09Pittsburgh28Notre Dame21Notre Dame -3.5Pittsburgh0
201211/03Notre Dame29Pittsburgh26
201109/24Pittsburgh12Notre Dame15
201010/09Notre Dame23Pittsburgh17
200911/14Pittsburgh27Notre Dame22
200811/01Notre Dame33Pittsburgh36
200509/03Pittsburgh21Notre Dame42
200411/13Notre Dame38Pittsburgh41
200310/11Pittsburgh14Notre Dame20
200210/12Notre Dame14Pittsburgh6
200110/06Notre Dame24Pittsburgh7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh423 Overs
Notre Dame1242 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 82 - 41 - 11 - 3
Road Teams8 - 84 - 23 - 11 - 1

(#3) ND at (#31) PITT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDPITT
Net PPPPPP #2 #31
Power RatePwr #3 #31
SP+SP+ #5 #36
Perf GradeGrade #5 #72
OffenseOff #5 #102
DefenseDef #5 #26
Spec TeamsST #23 #73
TalentTal #7 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #8 #56
Notre Dame Notes
(11/16) Killed Pitt, 10-2 finish likely. Get healthy for CFP?
(11/4) Huge issues at K, missed 2 XP, short FG vs BC
(10/20) OG Billy Schrauth out until at least Pitt/Cuse (3 OL)
(10/18) 300 yds rush vs USC, Pass Def torched, huge Win
(10/16) DL G Rubio out vs SC (best DT) & L Thomas (depth)
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
Notre Dame Injury Report
Pittsburgh Notes
(11/16) No show vs ND, non competitive. Pitt isn't good
(10/25) Four W's in a row, killed NC St, Heintschel 400+
(10/12) QB Heintschel saved season. Chance 7-2 hosting ND
(10/9) Ton of injuries, and a lot of DL. See injury report
(10/4) QB Holstein benched, Fr Mason Heintschel starting
(10/4) RB D Reid missed L'ville, out for BC game
(10/4) QB Heintschel much better, raises Offense, new #1
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
Pittsburgh Injury Report
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffPITT Def
PPPOffPPP #1 #18
Perf GradePerf #5 #26
SuccessSuc #10 #11
ExplosiveExp #3 #119
PPAPPA #4 #24
PowerPwr #6 #34
SP+SP+ #7 #50
Pts POPPO #6 #82
HavocHav #36 #14
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #5 #5
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #7
Run ExplRExp #8 #69
PPAExp #11 #7
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #6
Stuff RateStuff #101 #7
TackleTak -  #25
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #10 #60
Pass SuccessPSuc #6 #23
Pass ExplPExl #25 #110
PPAExp #10 #53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #62
F7 HavocF7 #36 #8
DB HavocDB #35 #47
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffND Def
PPPDefPPP #24 #75
Perf GradePerf #102 #5
SuccessSuc #94 #13
ExplosiveExp #10 #85
PPAPPA #57 #12
PowerPwr #25 #2
SP+SP+ #33 #11
Pts POPPO #74 #6
HavocHav #120 #19
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffND Def
Run GameRun #84 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #20
Run ExplRExp #51 #32
PPAExp #97 #37
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #122 #39
Stuff RateStuff #129 #74
TackleTak -  #9
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffND Def
Pass GamePass #119 #7
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #16
Pass ExplPExl #29 #93
PPAExp #40 #8
Pass Block/RushP Blk #68 #25
F7 HavocF7 #107 #77
DB HavocDB #123 #3
Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 62° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Notre Dame 12.5 (55.5)
Notre Dame won at Pittsburgh this year (37-15)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (58-7)

  
ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
C.J. Carr19529367%27412469.4
Kenny Minchey202677%196007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1991372186.994
Jadarian Price113674116.058
Aneyas Williams2422459.354
Kenny Minchey784112.034
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Faison49640413.154
Malachi Fields (Tr)36630517.566
Eli Raridon32482015.165
Will Pauling (Tr)26381614.744

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen675423
Adon Shuler522125
Jaiden Ausberry514250
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa488352
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boubacar Traore3710780
Drayk Bowen675423
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa488352
Jaylen Sneed355330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Gray1810010
Leonard Moore310007
Adon Shuler522125

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Eli Holstein7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
Desmond Reid6027824.653
Juelz Goff6927053.917
Mason Heintschel868821.036
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams52741714.367
Kenny Johnson47658514.042
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)24422417.684
Desmond Reid23317213.850

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kyle Louis798333
Braylan Lovelace796162
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Kyle Louis798333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rashad Battle422105
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004