Pittsburgh at East Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Pittsburgh logo Pittsburgh Panthers vs East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, December 27th 2025 (11:00 AM EST)
Pittsburgh -13.5 (51.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
East Carolina 23 - Pittsburgh: 17  (Go Bowling Military Bowl)

 
Panthers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Pittsburgh -0.5  (SP+ PITT -1)

Projected Score: PITT: 28 - ECU: 27 (55)
PITT Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
PITT Travel: 365 miles
Pirates (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Blake Harrell (4 - 1)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.053.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.554.5W 48 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.556.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.554.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.552.5W 53 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.551.5W 35 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.555.5L 15 - 37UN
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.561.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.549.5L 7 - 38UN
Sat 12/27 Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 East Carolina at NC State+12.558.5L 17 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 East Carolina vs Campbell-30.056.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.058.0W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 East Carolina vs BYU+6.549.5L 13 - 34UN
Thu 9/25 East Carolina vs Army-3.552.5W 28 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 East Carolina at Tulane+7.053.5L 19 - 26UY
Thu 10/16 East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.554.5W 41 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 East Carolina at Temple-5.558.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.556.5W 48 - 22ON
Sat 11/15 East Carolina vs Memphis-3.056.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 East Carolina at UTSA-2.062.5L 24 - 58ON
Sat 11/29 East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.566.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 12/27 East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#59 (.19)41% (95)33.741% (96)2.62 (123)10841% (76)2543.65 (76)#33 (.09)35% (11)24.834% (7)37% (27)3.81 (83)64.71.41.5
ECU#34 (.22)46% (25)32.745% (51)3.04 (53)17149% (14)2593.76 (63)#35 (.09)38% (29)20.138% (20)39% (44)3.05 (21)58.411.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Offense1333.73340.6%3.651.4193621082543.643%55%41%41%18%.19
ECU Defense1320.119.838.3%3.051.5 - - - - - 46%52%38%39%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Defense1324.824.635.2%3.811.5 - - - - - 46%52%34%37%19%.09
ECU Offense1332.736.246.5%3.761224301712594.352%46%45%49%13%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Pittsburgh1326:2318.933%61%7.164.71.41.56.82.2633.3
East Carolina1326:1522.550%45%6.858.411.57.22131.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Offense1343% (115)41% (96)30108.53.618 (70).06 (96)2.62 (123)67% (96)11% (106)1.01 (54)
ECU Defense1346% (28)38% (20) - - - - .02 (25)2.5 (12)49% (1)14% (5)1.09 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Defense1346% (27)34% (7) - - - - -.03 (9)2.34 (5)69% (53)13% (9)0.98 (80)
ECU Offense1352% (44)45% (51)39.8170.84.331 (30).12 (67)3.04 (53)69% (93)8% (32)0.84 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Offense1355% (22)41% (76)20.332.6253.87.812.528 (8)14 (127).34 (39)1.7 (28)33% (104)31% (63).35 (53)8% (123)2 (69)
ECU Defense1352% (114)39% (44) - - - - - - 9 (100).17 (36)1.4 (24)36% (13)28% (48).18 (26)6% (81)1.8 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Defense1352% (107)37% (27) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (53)1.6 (110)37% (11)26% (18).17 (20)6% (49)2.1 (95)
ECU Offense1346% (90)49% (14)21.332.5259.1812.220 (61)6 (34).37 (32)1.5 (72)26% (11)37% (12).49 (13)5% (30)1.8 (115)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 9.96  #42
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 13.68  #47
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.72  #38
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 9.96   East Carolina: 9.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 9.0   East Carolina: 8.1




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 9.23  #40
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.08  #40
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.72  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 690.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
East Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
East Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1  #40
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #33
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.6

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 28
East Carolina 27


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 33
Pittsburgh 29

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 30
Pittsburgh 27

Total Points: 57
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/27East Carolina23Pittsburgh17Pittsburgh -13.5East Carolina51.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina110 Overs
Pittsburgh001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

Pittsburgh Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Go Bowl Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23
2024Sports Bowl Pittsburgh vs Toledo-6.548.5L 46 - 48
2022Sun Bowl Pittsburgh vs UCLA+9.055.0W 37 - 35
2021Peach Bowl Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.555.0L 21 - 31
2019Lane Bowl Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan-12.551.0W 34 - 30
East Carolina Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Go Bowl East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5W 23 - 17
2024Go Bowl East Carolina vs NC State+7.561.5W 26 - 21
2022Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina-7.067.5W 53 - 29
  
(#42) PITT at (#40) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPITTECU
Power RatePwr #42 #40
SP+SP+ #36 #40
Perf GradeGrade #59 #73
OffenseOff #100 #61
DefenseDef #24 #87
Spec TeamsST #69 #78
TalentTal #58 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #101
Pittsburgh Notes
(11/16) No show vs ND, non competitive. Pitt isn't good
(10/25) Four W's in a row, killed NC St, Heintschel 400+
(10/12) QB Heintschel saved season. Chance 7-2 hosting ND
(10/9) Ton of injuries, and a lot of DL. See injury report
(10/4) QB Holstein benched, Fr Mason Heintschel starting
(10/4) RB D Reid missed L'ville, out for BC game
(10/4) QB Heintschel much better, raises Offense, new #1
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
Pittsburgh Injury Report
East Carolina Notes
(12/17) Hired OC Jordan Davis (N Tex). Incredible hire
(8/29) QB Houser baller vs NC St, Pass Def bad in L
(7/25) WR duo A Smith & Y Smith good, 3 good portals
(7/12) QB Houser starting exp, beat Garcia (fo to Mich)
(7/12) RBs v strong, Montgomery/Gunn exp'd & deep
(3/23) OL 4/5 back, avg LY. 2 portals. Better TY
(3/23) Def awful LY, rebuild. 4 DL/4 DB portal adds
(3/23) New DC Aldridge 1st time. Exp w/ Aub/Lib
(3/23) HC Harrell won job w/ 4-1 finish LY.
East Carolina Injury Report
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffECU Def
Perf GradePerf #100 #87
SuccessSuc #95 #29
ExplosiveExp #9 #88
PPAPPA #59 #35
PowerPwr #47 #45
SP+SP+ #33 #53
Pts POPPO #76 #21
HavocHav #120 #13
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffECU Def
Run GameRun #85 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #20
Run ExplRExp #54 #121
PPAExp #96 #25
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #12
Stuff RateStuff #129 #3
TackleTak -  #133
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffECU Def
Pass GamePass #119 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #44
Pass ExplPExl #28 #24
PPAExp #39 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #85 #92
F7 HavocF7 #106 #5
DB HavocDB #123 #81
East Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffPITT Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #24
SuccessSuc #25 #11
ExplosiveExp #108 #120
PPAPPA #34 #33
PowerPwr #40 #38
SP+SP+ #33 #50
Pts POPPO #63 #83
HavocHav #27 #16
East Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ECU OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #34 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #7
Run ExplRExp #121 #80
PPAExp #67 #9
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #53 #5
Stuff RateStuff #14 #6
TackleTak -  #11
East Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatECU OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #18 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #27
Pass ExplPExl #72 #110
PPAExp #32 #53
Pass Block/RushP Blk #105 #54
F7 HavocF7 #32 #9
DB HavocDB #30 #49
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 39° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Pittsburgh 13.5 (51.5)
East Carolina won vs Pittsburgh this year (23-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Eli Holstein7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
Desmond Reid6027824.653
Juelz Goff6927053.917
Eli Holstein368812.431
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams52741714.367
Kenny Johnson47658514.042
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)24422417.684
Desmond Reid23317213.850

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kyle Louis798333
Braylan Lovelace796162
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Kyle Louis798333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rashad Battle422105
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004

ECU's OC John David Baker (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser26940866%33001968.1
Chaston Ditta122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
London Montgomery15674274.851
Marlon Gunn11258265.250
TJ Engleman5930615.223
Parker Jenkins (Tr)7525623.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Smith641053716.572
Yannick Smith44583513.359
Brock Spalding42554313.255
Desirrio Riles28362212.942

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
DJ Johnson Jr.605120
Samuel Dankah587213
Dameon Wilson548121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson4210641
Jasiyah Robinson257530
Kendrick DuJour (Tr)115411
Rion Roseborough (Tr)166310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Marley Riddle704006
Teagan Wilk (Tr)542014
Jordy Lowery (Tr)272004