California at Stanford - 2025 Matchup Preview
California logo California Golden Bears at Stanford CardinalStanford logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Stanford Stadium - Stanford, CA  (ACC)

 
Golden Bears (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 24 - 23 (21 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
CAL coming off BYE
STAN coming off BYE
Our Line: California -5  (SP+ CAL -7)

Projected Score: CAL: 28 - STAN: 23 (50)
CAL Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
CAL Travel: 31 miles
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (30 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.546.5
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech-3
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+8.5
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-5
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.554.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#115 (.09)41% (101)24.238% (115)2.59 (117)9943% (69)2543.31 (112)#38 (.1)39% (40)22.542% (74)37% (33)3.67 (60)56.71.71.2
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense624.220.740.6%3.311.719352992543.242%58%38%43%17%.09
STAN Defense630.224.545.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense622.524.339.2%3.671.2 - - - - - 43%56%42%37%16%.1
STAN Offense618.83038.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California630:1719.340%46%7.356.71.71.24.71.5027.3
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense642% (118)38% (115)3198.53.28 (87) (121)2.59 (117)56% (132)9% (72)1.05 (40)
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense643% (11)42% (74) - - - - .13 (90)3.11 (109)84% (127)9% (100)0.96 (70)
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense658% (19)43% (69)2235.8253.77.111.510 (60)8 (125).15 (111)1.5 (99)30% (49)34% (37).45 (36)8% (121)2 (60)
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense656% (127)37% (33) - - - - - - 5 (46).09 (22)1.4 (19)34% (44)21% (9).04 (5)8% (24)1.9 (51)
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 4.25  #61
California's Offense Rating: 6.84  #89
California's Defense Rating: 2.59  #37
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.0  #78
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #92
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 4.25   Stanford: -4.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.0   Stanford: -10.2




Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -4.26  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


California Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
California 28
Stanford 23


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Stanford 28
California 23

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
California 25
Stanford 24

Total Points: 49
Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.5

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23California24Stanford21California -15Stanford53.5Under
202311/18Stanford15California27California -6.5California52.5Under
202211/19California27Stanford20California -5California46.0Over
202111/20Stanford11California41California -2.5California46.0Over
202011/27California23Stanford24Stanford -2California51.0Under
201911/23Stanford20California24California -1California41.5Over
201812/01California13Stanford23Stanford -3Stanford46.5Under
201711/18Stanford17California14Stanford -14California56.5Under
201611/19California31Stanford45Stanford -11Stanford60.5Over
201511/21Stanford35California22Stanford -12.5Stanford63.0Under
201411/22California17Stanford38Stanford -6.5Stanford0
201311/23Stanford63California13Stanford -28.5Stanford0
201210/20California3Stanford21
201111/19Stanford31California28
201011/20California14Stanford48
200911/21Stanford28California34
200811/22California37Stanford16
200712/01Stanford20California13
200612/02California26Stanford17
200511/19Stanford3California27
200411/20California41Stanford6
200311/22Stanford16California28
200111/17Stanford35California28
200011/17California30Stanford36
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Stanford1364 Overs
California1166 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 83 - 21 - 6
Road Teams13 - 118 - 46 - 12 - 3

(#61) CAL at (#85) STAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALSTAN
Power RatePwr #61 #85
SP+SP+ #78 #108
Perf GradeGrade #87 #116
OffenseOff #83 #87
DefenseDef #90 #130
Spec TeamsST #130 #26
TalentTal #55 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #42

California Notes
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
(4/17) RB room decimated. 5 entered portal post spring

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues
California on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #83 #130
SuccessSuc #101 #115
ExplosiveExp #49 #66
PPAPPA #115 #108
PowerPwr #89 #75
SP+SP+ #92 #99
Pts POPPO #112 #42
HavocHav #105 #124
California Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #107 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #115 #112
Run ExplRExp #40 #15
PPAExp #121 #40
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #102
Stuff RateStuff #99 #109
TackleTak -  #115
California Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #57 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #108
Pass ExplPExl #99 #74
PPAExp #111 #113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #107
F7 HavocF7 #72 #126
DB HavocDB #121 #106
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatSTAN OffCAL Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #90
SuccessSuc #120 #40
ExplosiveExp #67 #39
PPAPPA #109 #38
PowerPwr #96 #37
SP+SP+ #106 #68
Pts POPPO #129 #60
HavocHav #100 #64
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #62 #135
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #74
Run ExplRExp #102 #70
PPAExp #118 #90
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #109
Stuff RateStuff #83 #132
TackleTak -  #87
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatSTAN OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #101 #10
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #33
Pass ExplPExl #62 #19
PPAExp #87 #22
Pass Block/RushP Blk #111 #79
F7 HavocF7 #102 #100
DB HavocDB #87 #24
Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
California beat Stanford last year (24-21)
California beat Stanford in 2023 (27-15)
California beat Stanford in 2022 (27-20)

  
CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)12920862%1479977.1
Devin Brown (Tr)3650%43117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)9442344.533
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)309823.312
Brandon High239814.322
T.J. Bollers1909.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trond Grizzell24400116.735
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)3329328.930
Mason Mini (Tr)26279310.751
Mark Hamper (Tr)13167012.835

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave527121
Luke Ferrelli453100
Isaiah Crosby241003
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)241006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)204220
Jayden Wayne (Tr)83220
Ryan McCulloch113241
Cade Uluave527121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)241006
Isaiah Crosby241003
Cameron Sidney213103

STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002