California at Stanford - 2025 Matchup Preview
California logo California Golden Bears at Stanford CardinalStanford logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
California -4.5 (47.5) (-192)  Open: -4.5
Stanford 31 - California: 10  (ACC)

 
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
CAL coming off BYE
STAN coming off BYE
Our Line: California -1.5  (SP+ CAL -8)

Projected Score: CAL: 26 - STAN: 24 (50)
CAL Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
CAL Travel: 31 miles
Cardinal (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (25 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+4.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+32.550.5L 20 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#98 (.12)41% (95)25.338% (119)2.64 (120)8343% (57)2753.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (118)38% (34)3.69 (71)64.61.21.1
STAN#120 (.06)36% (127)18.837% (126)2.63 (121)8637% (117)2223.02 (122)#73 (.17)42% (80)29.242% (70)43% (84)3.46 (51)54.11.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1325.323.740.6%3.71.220358832752.839%60%38%43%16%.12
STAN Defense1229.22642.5%3.461.1 - - - - - 42%57%42%43%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1327.229.642.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
STAN Offense1218.825.236.3%3.021.417308862222.646%51%37%37%17%.06

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1330:1419.940%52%7.864.61.21.14.61.5027.1
Stanford1229:4917.438%58%654.11.41.14.91.9125.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)29.682.52.821 (78)-.04 (133)2.64 (120)70% (81)10% (74)0.89 (102)
STAN Defense1242% (3)42% (70) - - - - -.02 (11)2.88 (69)74% (89)9% (99)0.88 (25)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1346% (27)47% (118) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (116)0.98 (83)
STAN Offense1246% (99)37% (126)32.385.52.68 (119)-.03 (131)2.63 (121)82% (6)10% (84)0.75 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (57)24.838.8275.37.111.120 (61)10 (119).23 (78)1.5 (108)32% (77)33% (32).36 (49)7% (105)1.9 (113)
STAN Defense1257% (135)43% (84) - - - - - - 3 (132).34 (110)1.6 (84)33% (39)34% (117).35 (95)6% (73)2 (48)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (23)1.4 (10)32% (64)26% (23).16 (15)7% (21)1.7 (9)
STAN Offense1251% (46)37% (117)18.732.62226.811.914 (106)12 (60).2 (98)1.5 (65)33% (92)25% (123).19 (113)7% (117)2 (82)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.00  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 1.00   Stanford: -2.795

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.4   Stanford: -11.4




Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -2.795  #65
Stanford's Offense Rating: 9.61  #90
Stanford's Defense Rating: 8.80  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4  #112
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.7  #118
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #84

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
California 26
Stanford 24


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
California 27
Stanford 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
California 26
Stanford 25

Total Points: 51
Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.2
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Stanford31California10California -4.5Stanford47.5Under
202411/23California24Stanford21California -15Stanford53.5Under
202311/18Stanford15California27California -6.5California52.5Under
202211/19California27Stanford20California -5California46.0Over
202111/20Stanford11California41California -2.5California46.0Over
202011/27California23Stanford24Stanford -2California51.0Under
201911/23Stanford20California24California -1California41.5Over
201812/01California13Stanford23Stanford -3Stanford46.5Under
201711/18Stanford17California14Stanford -14California56.5Under
201611/19California31Stanford45Stanford -11Stanford60.5Over
201511/21Stanford35California22Stanford -12.5Stanford63.0Under
201411/22California17Stanford38Stanford -6.5Stanford0
201311/23Stanford63California13Stanford -28.5Stanford0
201210/20California3Stanford21
201111/19Stanford31California28
201011/20California14Stanford48
200911/21Stanford28California34
200811/22California37Stanford16
200712/01Stanford20California13
200612/02California26Stanford17
200511/19Stanford3California27
200411/20California41Stanford6
200311/22Stanford16California28
200111/17Stanford35California28
200011/17California30Stanford36
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Stanford1474 Overs
California1167 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 135 - 83 - 22 - 6
Road Teams13 - 128 - 56 - 22 - 3

(#63) CAL at (#65) STAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALSTAN
Net PPPPPP #93 #112
Power RatePwr #63 #65
SP+SP+ #85 #112
Perf GradeGrade #87 #120
OffenseOff #84 #121
DefenseDef #62 #109
Spec TeamsST #122 #36
TalentTal #55 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #42
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
Stanford Notes
(11/28) Hired HC Tavita Pritchard, was QBC for Wash/NFL
(11/28) Great W over Cal, run defense great. Off was enough
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
Stanford Injury Report
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSTAN Def
PPPOffPPP #101 #122
Perf GradePerf #84 #109
SuccessSuc #95 #80
ExplosiveExp #65 #94
PPAPPA #98 #73
PowerPwr #61 #36
SP+SP+ #87 #84
Pts POPPO #66 #51
HavocHav #91 #94
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #124 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #70
Run ExplRExp #102 #25
PPAExp #133 #11
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #69
Stuff RateStuff #58 #90
TackleTak -  #116
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #26 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #84
Pass ExplPExl #108 #84
PPAExp #78 #110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #82 #119
F7 HavocF7 #74 #99
DB HavocDB #105 #73
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSTAN OffCAL Def
PPPDefPPP #81 #91
Perf GradePerf #121 #62
SuccessSuc #127 #79
ExplosiveExp #103 #31
PPAPPA #120 #71
PowerPwr #90 #63
SP+SP+ #118 #75
Pts POPPO #122 #71
HavocHav #105 #80
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #73 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #126 #118
Run ExplRExp #134 #83
PPAExp #131 #122
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #121 #129
Stuff RateStuff #63 #134
TackleTak -  #109
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSTAN OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #125 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #117 #34
Pass ExplPExl #65 #10
PPAExp #98 #23
Pass Block/RushP Blk #127 #77
F7 HavocF7 #84 #116
DB HavocDB #117 #21
Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 55°
Rematch from Week 13
California 4.5 (47.5)
Stanford won vs California this year (31-10)

Previous Matchups
California beat Stanford last year (24-21)
California beat Stanford in 2023 (27-15)
California beat Stanford in 2022 (27-20)

  
CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown7412758%829426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford14564344.475
Cole Tabb11444533.928
Sedrick Irvin4111812.915
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams60757612.636
Sam Roush49545211.169
Bryce Farrell28447216.068
Caden High (Tr)37414111.234

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose1068333
Scotty Edwards544311
Jahsiah Galvan502012
Jaivion Green383016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson336461
Matt Rose1068333
Ernest Cooper235301
Scotty Edwards544311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green383016
Brandon Nicholson271106
Collin Wright331004