California at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
California logo California Golden Bears at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Wednesday, December 24th 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
Hawai'i -1.5 (50.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Hawai'i 35 - California: 31  (Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl)

 
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Nick Rolovich (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Wind: 27.3 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: California -1  (SP+ HAW -4)

Projected Score: CAL: 26 - HAW: 25 (51)
HAW Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
CAL Travel: 2404 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for California's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#99 (.12)40% (96)25.338% (119)2.64 (119)7143% (58)2493.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (120)38% (37)3.69 (71)58.11.21.1
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1325.323.740.5%3.71.218321712492.639%60%38%43%16%.12
HAW Defense1324.11741.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1327.229.642.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
HAW Offense13293141.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1327:5717.840%55%7.258.11.21.14.51.5027.1
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)27.571.52.618 (78)-.04 (132)2.64 (119)70% (81)9% (64)0.89 (99)
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1346% (29)47% (120) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (117)0.98 (83)
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (58)22.635.8249.471119 (61)10 (119).22 (81)1.4 (108)32% (76)33% (38).35 (52)7% (106)1.9 (112)
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (37) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (28)1.4 (11)32% (64)26% (23).16 (16)7% (24)1.7 (9)
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.61  #63
California's Offense Rating: 7.93  #74
California's Defense Rating: 6.32  #54
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 1.61   Hawai'i: -1.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.4   Hawai'i: 0.9




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -1.96  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
California 26
Hawai'i 25


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 30
California 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 29
California 23

Total Points: 52
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/24Hawai'i35California31Hawai'i -1.5Hawai'i50.5Over
201608/26California51Hawai'i31California -23Hawai'i66.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i122 Overs
California100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

California Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025I Bowl California vs Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35
2024La Bowl California vs UNLV+3.045.0L 13 - 24
2023Independence Bowl California vs Texas Tech+3.554.5L 14 - 34
2019Redbox Bowl California vs Illinois-6.047.5W 35 - 20
Hawai'i Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025I Bowl Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31
2020Mexico Bowl Hawai'i vs Houston+7.060.5W 28 - 14
2019I Bowl Hawai'i vs BYU+3.065.5W 38 - 34
  
(#63) CAL at (#108) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALHAW
Power RatePwr #63 #108
SP+SP+ #85 #68
Perf GradeGrade #94 #100
OffenseOff #88 #107
DefenseDef #76 #96
Spec TeamsST #130 #71
TalentTal #55 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #96
SuccessSuc #96 #67
ExplosiveExp #68 #87
PPAPPA #99 #72
PowerPwr #74 #87
SP+SP+ #87 #65
Pts POPPO #66 #41
HavocHav #88 #63
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #120 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #74
Run ExplRExp #99 #76
PPAExp #132 #66
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #119 #119
Stuff RateStuff #59 #117
TackleTak -  #128
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #29 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #58 #58
Pass ExplPExl #108 #77
PPAExp #81 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #84 #29
F7 HavocF7 #64 #82
DB HavocDB #106 #41
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffCAL Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #76
SuccessSuc #88 #79
ExplosiveExp #29 #28
PPAPPA #62 #71
PowerPwr #118 #54
SP+SP+ #75 #75
Pts POPPO #61 #71
HavocHav #16 #79
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #111 #132
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #120
Run ExplRExp #90 #83
PPAExp #118 #122
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #129
Stuff RateStuff #98 #134
TackleTak -  #114
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #45 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #37
Pass ExplPExl #61 #11
PPAExp #47 #28
Pass Block/RushP Blk #109 #89
F7 HavocF7 #13 #117
DB HavocDB #39 #24
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76° - Wind: 27 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Hawai'i -1.5 (50.5)
Hawai'i won vs California this year (35-31)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34321897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)234953134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102169.541
Trond Grizzell55775114.135
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006