California at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview
California logo   California Golden Bears at San Diego State Aztecs  San Diego State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
California -14 (47.5) (-575)  Open: -11.5
San Diego State 34 - California: 0

 
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
SDSU coming off BYE
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -8  (SP+ SDSU -10)

Projected Score: CAL: 20 - SDSU: 28 (47)
CAL Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
CAL Travel: 455 miles
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.340% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)27.241% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)26.437% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)15.449% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1325.323.741.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17
SDSU Defense1215.46.846.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1327.229.640.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
SDSU Offense1226.431.237.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.00  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 1.00   San Diego State: 6.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.2   San Diego State: 6.7




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 6.7  #60
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 8.16  #99
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.46  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 28
California 20


Projected Total Points: 47
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20San Diego State34California0California -14San Diego State47.5Under
202409/14California31San Diego State10California -18.5California48.5Under
201609/10San Diego State45California40San Diego State -7California59.5Over
201509/12California35San Diego State7California -9California59.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State211 Overs
California233 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 03 - 12 - 11 - 0
Road Teams0 - 41 - 30 - 11 - 2

(#63) CAL at (#60) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALSDSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #63 #60
SP+SP+ #80 #43
Perf GradeGrade #87 #20
OffenseOff #84 #61
DefenseDef #62 #13
Spec TeamsST #122 #58
TalentTal #55 #95
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSDSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #13
SuccessSuc #88 #113
ExplosiveExp #52 #44
PPAPPA #79 #103
PowerPwr #61 #29
SP+SP+ #77 #28
Pts POPPO #125 #111
HavocHav #102 #131
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #124 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #104 #117
Run ExplRExp #22 #47
PPAExp #99 #113
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #130
Stuff RateStuff #114 #132
TackleTak -  #53
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #26 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #98
Pass ExplPExl #126 #75
PPAExp #72 #96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #82 #49
F7 HavocF7 #126 #98
DB HavocDB #23 #133
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffCAL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #62
SuccessSuc #120 #52
ExplosiveExp #51 #88
PPAPPA #108 #48
PowerPwr #99 #64
SP+SP+ #90 #72
Pts POPPO #107 #20
HavocHav #99 #42
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #31 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #53
Run ExplRExp #37 #37
PPAExp #84 #44
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #65
Stuff RateStuff #35 #71
TackleTak -  #109
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatSDSU OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #114 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #67
Pass ExplPExl #99 #92
PPAExp #107 #52
Pass Block/RushP Blk #47 #77
F7 HavocF7 #114 #72
DB HavocDB #61 #12
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
California 14.0 (47.5)
San Diego State won vs California this year (34-0)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat California last year (34-0)
California beat San Diego State in 2024 (31-10)

  
CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036