California at San Diego State - 2025 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA

Golden Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (19 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)

SDSU coming off BYE
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: California -8 (SP+ CAL -10)
Projected Score: CAL: 28 - SDSU: 20 (49)
CAL Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
CAL Travel: 455 miles

Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#87)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	California at Oregon State	+3.0	51.5
Sat 9/6	California vs Texas Southern	-21.5
Sat 9/13	California vs Minnesota	+9.5
Sat 9/20	California at San Diego State	-8
Sat 9/27	California at Boston College	+7
Sat 10/4	California vs Duke	+5
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	California vs North Carolina	+1.5
Fri 10/24	California at Virginia Tech	+10
Sat 11/1	California vs Virginia	-0.5
Sat 11/8	California at Louisville	+16.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	California at Stanford	-1
Sat 11/29	California vs SMU	+13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Wed 8/27	San Diego State vs Stony Brook	-11
Sat 9/6	San Diego State at Washington State	+5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	San Diego State vs California	+8
Sat 9/27	San Diego State at Northern Illinois	+4
Sat 10/4	San Diego State vs Colorado State	+0
Sat 10/11	San Diego State at Nevada	-2.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	San Diego State at Fresno State	+8
Sat 11/1	San Diego State vs Wyoming	-3.5
Sat 11/8	San Diego State at Hawai'i	+3.5
Sat 11/15	San Diego State vs Boise State	+19.5
Sat 11/22	San Diego State vs San José State	+5
Sat 11/29	San Diego State at New Mexico	-2

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.1	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	22.3	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)	21.3	37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)	29.6	49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	25.1	19.4	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17
SDSU Defense	12	29.6	23.3	46.1%	4.28	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	49%	43%	12%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	22.3	23.8	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14
SDSU Offense	12	21.3	22.3	37.4%	3.44	0.8	19	335	129	206	3.7	47%	52%	37%	38%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6
San Diego State	12	27:08	18.5	36%	53%	9.1	81.8	0.8	1	5.4	2.6	2	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)
SDSU Defense	12	55% (117)	49% (117)	-	-	-	-	.21 (113)	3.49 (130)	80% (109)	9% (98)	0.94 (47)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)
SDSU Offense	12	47% (87)	37% (124)	35.3	128.9	3.7	13 (105)	.1 (84)	3 (78)	69% (97)	12% (114)	1.06 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)
SDSU Defense	12	44% (17)	43% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.28 (96)	1.6 (75)	29% (112)	38% (126)	.52 (126)	3% (133)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)
SDSU Offense	12	52% (45)	38% (109)	19.5	31.3	205.7	6.6	10.6	15 (98)	8 (40)	.15 (107)	1.5 (99)	36% (125)	26% (114)	.29 (87)	6% (61)	2 (77)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: -3.99 #78
California's Offense Rating: 10.21 #92
California's Defense Rating: 14.20 #63
2025 Talent Rating: 758.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
California's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 828.59
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
California: -3.99 San Diego State: -9.935

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -0.3 San Diego State: -10.1

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -9.935 #103
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 4.95 #123
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 19.72 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 580.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.1 #102
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #125
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.4
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

California's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
California 28
San Diego State 20

Projected Total Points: 49

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	California	31	San Diego State	10	California	California -18.5	California	48.5	Under
2016	09/10	San Diego State	45	California	40	San Diego State	San Diego State -7	California	59.5	Over
2015	09/12	California	35	San Diego State	7	California	California -9	California	59.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	1	0	1 Overs
California	2	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#78) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.99 #78
Offense Rating: 10.21 #92
Defense Rating: 14.20 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51
Talent Rating: 758.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

California Notes
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
(4/17) RB room decimated. 5 entered portal post spring
(4/17) TE Endries gone via portal post spring, big loss
(4/17) New OC Harsin a bad start, lead to portal mess
(4/4) Donors want Wilcox reporting to new GM Rivera
(3/21) QB Brown (OSU), Fr Sagapolutele huge add
(3/21) WR has pieces, talent. 5 portals past 2 yrs
(3/21) Def bad LY, replacing a lot. 6 portal adds

California Ratings Matchup San Diego State

Power #78

#103

Off #92

#123

Def #63

#95

Talent #57

#85

SP+ #65

#102

SP+ Off #79

#125

SP+ Def #51

#65

Previous Matchups
California beat San Diego State last year (31-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: CAL | SDSU
Depth Chart: CAL | SDSU
Rosters: CAL | SDSU

(#103) San Diego State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.935 #103
Offense Rating: 4.95 #123
Defense Rating: 19.72 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.1 #102
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #125
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #65
Talent Rating: 580.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

San Diego State Notes
(7/12) WR Kitt-Denton (FCS) avg'd 18.1 ypc at NW St
(6/16) OL 3/5 back, 3 portals, don't love OT on paper
(6/16) Lewis also the OC, offense was even worse LY?
(5/23) New DC Aurich (DC @ Idaho) an improvement
(5/23) Portals look decent, losses mostly went down
(5/2) RB light, Washington (CCU) decent add.
(5/2) WR Napier back, v good. Some depth
(5/2) Def bad LY, not much portal help, new DC Aurich
(3/29) QB Dengal (Mich) vs Emanuel Jr (CMU)

California's OC Bryan Harsin

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Harris	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9
Devin Brown (Tr)	11	20	55%	114	1	0	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brandon High	93	495	8	5.3	66
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	78	425	3	5.4	40
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)	74	303	5	4.1	35
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)	18	101	0	5.6	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Hamper (Tr)	43	869	5	20.2	74
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)	36	512	3	14.2	43
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Landon Morris (Tr)	16	251	1	15.7	58

View California's Full Roster

California's DC Vacant

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock (Tr)	97	3	0	2	3
Harrison Taggart (Tr)	69	3	1	4	3
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
T.J. Bush (Tr)	58	10	6	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush (Tr)	58	10	6	1	4
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1
Nathan Burrell	29	5	3	1	1
Serigne Tounkara	5	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	0	10
T.J. Bush (Tr)	58	10	6	1	4
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)	38	1	0	0	4

San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)	4	6	67%	99	2	0	16.5
Jordan Napier	1	2	50%	27	1	0	13.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Christian Washington (Tr)	102	537	5	5.3	68
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)	28	128	3	4.6	20
Lucky Sutton	5	35	0	7.0	17
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)	2	18	0	9.0	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Napier	43	440	4	10.2	53
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)	9	65	0	7.2	16
Christian Washington (Tr)	4	36	0	9.0	24
Jacob Bostick (Tr)	1	14	0	14.0	14

View San Diego State's Full Roster

San Diego State's DC Rob Aurich

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tano Letuli	67	4	2	2	0
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Dalesean Staley	55	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Malachi Finau (Tr)	19	4	3	1	0
Ryan Henderson	12	3	3	2	0
Tano Letuli	67	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn McCuin	26	2	1	1	5
Eric Butler	44	3	0	0	3
Jelani Whitmore	10	0	0	0	3