Northwestern at Penn State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Northwestern logo Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -20.5 (46.5) (-1350)  Open: -21.5
Northwestern 22 - Penn State: 21  (Big Ten)

 
Wildcats (6 - 6) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach David Braun (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 21 (15 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#74)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Penn State -18.5  (SP+ PSU -14)
Projected Score: NW: 13 - PSU: 31 (44)
PSU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
NW Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#74)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northwestern at Tulane+6.547.5L 3 - 23UN
Fri 9/5 Northwestern vs Western Illinois-30.548.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 9/13 Northwestern vs Oregon+25.550.5L 14 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Northwestern vs UCLA-6.045.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 10/4 Northwestern vs UL Monroe-12.543.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Northwestern at Penn State+20.546.5W 22 - 21UY
Sat 10/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-3.047.5W 19 - 0UY
Sat 10/25 Northwestern at Nebraska+7.544.5L 21 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/7 Northwestern at USC+14.554.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Northwestern vs Michigan+10.041.5L 22 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Northwestern vs Minnesota-4.041.0W 38 - 35ON
Sat 11/29 Northwestern at Illinois+7.044.5L 13 - 20UY
Fri 12/26 Northwestern vs Central Michigan-12.543.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+3.048.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW#86 (.14)43% (59)22.546% (47)2.98 (62)16842% (67)1823.17 (119)#86 (.19)45% (115)20.947% (123)44% (94)3.42 (46)351.71.3
PSU#30 (.25)48% (20)31.848% (24)3.14 (33)17847% (29)1824.46 (24)#55 (.13)42% (69)21.444% (93)40% (51)3.44 (48)37.50.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Offense1222.515.243.3%3.171.7203501681824.851%47%46%42%16%.14
PSU Defense1221.415.141.8%3.441.1 - - - - - 53%46%44%40%15%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NW Defense1220.92645.1%3.421.3 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.19
PSU Offense1231.83447.6%4.460.8203591781824.956%42%48%47%13%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northwestern1232:4319.844%63%4.4351.71.33.91.5027.3
Penn State1229:1219.642%63%4.237.50.81.16.22.3232.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Offense1251% (55)46% (47)35.3167.94.815 (99).14 (60)2.98 (62)79% (24)8% (33)0.9 (90)
PSU Defense1253% (109)44% (93) - - - - .12 (76)2.95 (82)68% (44)11% (33)0.95 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NW Defense1252% (92)47% (123) - - - - .2 (119)3.2 (118)69% (52)8% (114)1.03 (100)
PSU Offense1256% (24)48% (24)36.2177.54.930 (26).23 (20)3.14 (33)75% (54)9% (53)1.02 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Offense1247% (83)42% (67)1728.6181.86.410.714 (75)12 (108).2 (93)1.5 (95)30% (49)34% (26).33 (61)8% (129)1.8 (128)
PSU Defense1246% (33)40% (51) - - - - - - 6 (55).22 (58)1.4 (22)29% (105)28% (42).26 (57)5% (120)1.9 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NW Defense1246% (43)44% (94) - - - - - - 8 (75).25 (72)1.4 (14)29% (118)35% (127).35 (98)6% (60)1.8 (21)
PSU Offense1242% (115)47% (29)16.925.3181.67.210.714 (86)7 (60).29 (54)1.4 (125)25% (9)32% (45).34 (54)5% (22)1.9 (100)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.18  #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 8.13  #73
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 6.95  #60
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Northwestern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Northwestern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3  #39

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 1.18   Penn State: 20.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: 1.8   Penn State: 15.8




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.21  #18
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.85  #19
Penn State's Defense Rating: 0.23  #30
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #20
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.9  #21
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #31

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.2
Defense: 20.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Northwestern's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 31
Northwestern 13


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 22
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 37

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 28
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 47
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 21.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Penn State21Northwestern22Penn State -20.5Northwestern46.5Under
202309/30Northwestern13Penn State41Penn State -27Penn State48.0Over
202210/01Penn State17Northwestern7Penn State -25.5Northwestern50.0Under
201710/07Northwestern7Penn State31Penn State -14.5Penn State51.5Under
201511/07Northwestern23Penn State21Northwestern -2Push41.0Over
201409/27Penn State6Northwestern29Penn State -9Northwestern0
201210/06Penn State39Northwestern28
201110/22Northwestern24Penn State34
201011/06Penn State35Northwestern21
200910/31Northwestern13Penn State34
200609/30Penn State33Northwestern7
200509/24Northwestern29Penn State34
200411/06Penn State7Northwestern14
200311/08Northwestern17Penn State7
200210/19Penn State49Northwestern0
200110/20Northwestern35Penn State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State1122 Overs
Northwestern533 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 90 - 50 - 30 - 2
Road Teams9 - 75 - 02 - 03 - 0

(#66) NW at (#18) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNWPSU
Power RatePwr #66 #18
SP+SP+ #63 #20
Perf GradeGrade #51 #23
OffenseOff #35 #35
DefenseDef #86 #32
Spec TeamsST #108 #5
TalentTal #41 #4
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #10
Northwestern Notes
(11/22) Braun gets NW back to bowl. Great job & rebound
(11/16) Lost 3 straight but competitive in most. Improving
(10/19) Have now won 4 straight, 3 in B1G play. Improving
(10/19) Def shut out Purdue, Run Off great, Run Def good
(10/19) QB Stone has been JAG- though, must game control
(9/14) Good fight w/ Ducks but Off has zero expl
(9/9) Top RB Cam Porter out for the season, ouch
(8/30) Stone 4 Int vs Tulane, Run Off & Run Def awful
(7/23) QB is Stone (SMU), no depth, Lausch retired
(5/21) Can WR Wilde (FCS SDSU) bring hope?
(5/21) DL is light, but has exp and some pass rush
(5/21) CBs exp'd but avg, Safeties are good though
Northwestern Injury Report
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #32
SuccessSuc #59 #69
ExplosiveExp #112 #17
PPAPPA #86 #55
PowerPwr #73 #30
SP+SP+ #97 #31
Pts POPPO #119 #48
HavocHav #91 #72
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #46 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #93
Run ExplRExp #90 #67
PPAExp #60 #76
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #82
Stuff RateStuff #46 #70
TackleTak -  #53
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #82 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #51
Pass ExplPExl #95 #22
PPAExp #93 #58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #7 #17
F7 HavocF7 #33 #33
DB HavocDB #129 #120
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffNW Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #86
SuccessSuc #20 #115
ExplosiveExp #108 #35
PPAPPA #30 #86
PowerPwr #19 #60
SP+SP+ #21 #39
Pts POPPO #24 #46
HavocHav #39 #102
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
Run GameRun #23 #91
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #123
Run ExplRExp #52 #100
PPAExp #20 #119
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #118
Stuff RateStuff #25 #123
TackleTak -  #99
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #89 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #29 #94
Pass ExplPExl #125 #14
PPAExp #54 #72
Pass Block/RushP Blk #11 #55
F7 HavocF7 #53 #114
DB HavocDB #22 #60
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Penn State -20.5 (46.5)
Northwestern won at Penn State this year (22-21)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2023 (41-13)
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-7)

  
NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone (Tr)20333960%217414126.4
Ryan Boe1333%7002.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe175886105.156
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Dashun Reeder22222110.179
Cam Porter1813717.643
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde (Tr)61783612.849
Hayden Eligon Ii34476314.038
Hunter Welcing27283210.536
Drew Wagner2217227.840

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1016013
Mac Uihlein814000
Braydon Brus705333
Braden Turner462012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard237550
Michael Kilbane388471
Anto Saka134320
Braydon Brus705333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell251009
Fred Davis II (Tr)211006
Ore Adeyi161005

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer10014469%1079647.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)116906.316
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)44452110.343
Devonte Ross (Tr)28417514.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds2422909.522

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)9610330
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca636233
King Mack (Tr)561113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton3810683
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)9610330
Tony Rojas255221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II180003
Daryus Dixson222103
Dominic DeLuca636233