Penn State at UCLA - 2025 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo (#7)Penn State Nittany Lions at UCLA BruinsUCLA logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -24.5 (48.5) (-2400)  Open: -27.5
UCLA 42 - Penn State: 37  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#74)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Penn State -19.5  (SP+ PSU -25.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 33 - UCLA: 13 (46)
PSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
PSU Travel: 2237 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Bruins (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (20 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+2.547.5W 22 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
UCLA's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UCLA vs Utah+6.550.5L 10 - 43ON
Sat 9/6 UCLA at UNLV-2.554.5L 23 - 30UN
Fri 9/12 UCLA vs New Mexico-15.552.5L 10 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 UCLA at Northwestern+6.045.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 10/4 UCLA vs Penn State+24.548.5W 42 - 37OY
Sat 10/11 UCLA at Michigan State+7.051.5W 38 - 13UY
Sat 10/18 UCLA vs Maryland-3.552.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 10/25 UCLA at Indiana+26.553.5L 6 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 UCLA vs Nebraska-1.545.5L 21 - 28ON
Sat 11/15 UCLA at Ohio State+33.546.5L 10 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCLA vs Washington+10.551.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 11/29 UCLA at USC+21.059.0L 10 - 29UY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#31 (.24)46% (26)3147% (26)3.15 (34)16445% (34)1684.32 (26)#50 (.12)41% (61)20.544% (94)38% (39)3.33 (40)34.60.81
UCLA#97 (.12)42% (75)18.245% (55)3.06 (45)14040% (95)1802.98 (124)#122 (.25)50% (135)33.453% (135)48% (127)4.61 (133)65.51.10.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)34% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)45% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.5%4.320.8183311641684.955%43%47%45%14%.24
UCLA Defense1233.434.750.3%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%45%53%48%12%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.241.2%3.331 - - - - - 51%48%44%38%16%.12
UCLA Offense1218.219.541.9%2.981.1173201401804.547%51%45%40%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1326:5718.142%63%3.834.60.815.72.1231.9
UCLA1229:1117.337%48%7.565.51.10.83.30.8026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1355% (30)47% (26)33.4163.84.930 (26).22 (21)3.15 (34)76% (43)9% (49)1.01 (53)
UCLA Defense1254% (116)53% (135) - - - - .23 (131)3.32 (128)79% (118)7% (132)0.89 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1351% (85)44% (94) - - - - .11 (75)2.97 (85)69% (54)11% (35)0.93 (55)
UCLA Offense1247% (89)45% (55)31.3139.64.58 (107).21 (22)3.06 (45)65% (112)9% (64)1.05 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1343% (109)45% (34)15.623.4167.67.210.714 (86)7 (60).28 (52)1.4 (110)26% (14)32% (51).37 (42)5% (25)2 (72)
UCLA Defense1245% (23)48% (127) - - - - - - 4 (132).33 (106)1.4 (15)26% (135)40% (135).45 (129)5% (95)1.8 (10)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1348% (61)38% (39) - - - - - - 6 (55).18 (42)1.5 (27)30% (98)27% (32).23 (49)5% (101)1.9 (34)
UCLA Offense1251% (48)40% (95)19.130.1180.369.515 (75)7 (60).09 (126)1.3 (136)32% (75)32% (49).28 (80)7% (94)1.9 (98)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 19.62  #18
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.85  #19
Penn State's Defense Rating: 0.23  #30
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 6.4
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #20
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.9  #21
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #31

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 19.62   UCLA: -1.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 15.8   UCLA: -9.5




UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: -1.945  #68
UCLA's Offense Rating: 11.71  #54
UCLA's Defense Rating: 11.10  #84
2025 Talent Rating: 796.00  #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 12  #37
UCLA's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UCLA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5  #104
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9  #106
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #96

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 33
UCLA 13


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 26
UCLA 9

Total Points: 35

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 32
UCLA 22

Total Points: 54
UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

UCLA's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04UCLA42Penn State37Penn State -24.5UCLA48.5Over
202410/05Penn State27UCLA11Penn State -30UCLA48.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCLA121 Overs
Penn State101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#18) PSU at (#68) UCLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUUCLA
Power RatePwr #18 #68
SP+SP+ #20 #104
Perf GradeGrade #23 #120
OffenseOff #35 #109
DefenseDef #32 #123
Spec TeamsST #5 #41
TalentTal #4 #54
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #37
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
UCLA Notes
(12/1) Hired Bob Chesney (JMU), a great hire for UCLA
(11/15) QB1 Nico out vs Ohio St (Concussion)
(10/15) No one left via portal after Foster firing, incredible
(10/12) Back 2 back wins, but Sparty is truly awful esp Def
(10/6) 1st time OC Jerry Neuheisel a revelation, great game
(10/4) Incredible effort, unreal W vs Penn St. Nico 5 TD's
(10/4) OG'd PSU by 100, held ball 40 mins, Run Def good
(9/30) Two score underdogs or more in every game forward
(9/30) OC Sunseri fired 4 games in, Jerry Neuheisel Int
(9/14) HC Foster fired, SA Tim Skipper interim HC
(9/13) Outscored 30-0 in 1st quarter in 1st 3 games
(9/13) NM mauled Bruins Def up front. Run Off sucks
UCLA Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffUCLA Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #123
SuccessSuc #26 #135
ExplosiveExp #100 #9
PPAPPA #31 #122
PowerPwr #19 #84
SP+SP+ #21 #96
Pts POPPO #26 #133
HavocHav #38 #130
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffUCLA Def
Run GameRun #23 #107
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #135
Run ExplRExp #53 #30
PPAExp #21 #131
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #128
Stuff RateStuff #31 #129
TackleTak -  #64
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffUCLA Def
Pass GamePass #89 #111
Pass SuccessPSuc #34 #127
Pass ExplPExl #110 #15
PPAExp #52 #106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #11 #136
F7 HavocF7 #49 #132
DB HavocDB #25 #95
UCLA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUCLA OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #109 #32
SuccessSuc #75 #61
ExplosiveExp #117 #17
PPAPPA #97 #50
PowerPwr #54 #30
SP+SP+ #106 #31
Pts POPPO #124 #40
HavocHav #76 #62
UCLA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UCLA OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #62 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #55 #94
Run ExplRExp #36 #55
PPAExp #22 #75
Run BlockR Blk #93 -
OL YdsOLY #45 #85
Stuff RateStuff #76 #80
TackleTak -  #53
UCLA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUCLA OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #84 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #95 #39
Pass ExplPExl #136 #27
PPAExp #126 #42
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #17
F7 HavocF7 #64 #35
DB HavocDB #94 #101
Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Penn State 24.5 (48.5)
UCLA won vs Penn State this year (42-37)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat UCLA last year (27-11)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Grunkemeyer12317869%1341847.5
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Quinton Martin Jr.2010105.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)49552211.373
Devonte Ross (Tr)36501513.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds26259010.022

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca667243
King Mack (Tr)581113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton4212883
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Dominic DeLuca667243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Elliot Washington II180003
Dominic DeLuca667243

UCLA's OC Jerry Neuheisel (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nico Iamaleava (Tr)20832364%19281376.0
Luke Duncan213462%235206.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nico Iamaleava (Tr)11250544.552
Jalen Berger8136424.524
Jaivian Thomas (Tr)8230613.732
Anthony Woods (Tr)6329404.733
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kwazi Gilmer50535410.743
Mikey Matthews (Tr)33348210.537
Titus Mokiao-Atimalala25322312.934
Rico Flores26274010.551

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Kevin Coyle (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JonJon Vaughns1076101
Isaiah Chisom (Tr)843011
Key Lawrence (Tr)704011
Cole Martin (Tr)654003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Woods475203
Anthony Jones (Tr)203241
JonJon Vaughns1076101
Kechaun Bennett (Tr)233110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Jordan1900010
Rodrick Pleasant (Tr)362007
Cole Martin (Tr)654003