Penn State at UCLA - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -24.5 (48.5) (-2400) Open: -27.5
UCLA 42 - Penn State: 37 (Big Ten)

Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (99 - 41)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#74)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Penn State -19 (SP+ PSU -27)
Projected Score: PSU: 35 - UCLA: 16 (51)
PSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
PSU Travel: 2237 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Bruins (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (20 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
UCLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Penn State vs Nevada	-45.5	58.5	W 46 - 11	U	N
Sat 9/6	Penn State vs Florida International	-42.0	53.5	W 34 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/13	Penn State vs Villanova	-46.5	57.5	W 52 - 6	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Penn State vs Oregon	-4.5	52.5	L 24 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/4	Penn State at UCLA	-24.5	48.5	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/11	Penn State vs Northwestern	-20.5	46.5	L 21 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/18	Penn State at Iowa	+3.5	41.5	L 24 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Penn State at Ohio State	+17.5	45.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/8	Penn State vs Indiana	+13.5	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Penn State at Michigan State	-7.0	48.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Penn State vs Nebraska	-7.5	45.5	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Penn State at Rutgers	-14.5	55.5	W 40 - 36	O	N
Sat 12/27	Penn State vs Clemson	+2.5	47.5	W 22 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

UCLA's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UCLA vs Utah	+6.5	50.5	L 10 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/6	UCLA at UNLV	-2.5	54.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Fri 9/12	UCLA vs New Mexico	-15.5	52.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	UCLA at Northwestern	+6.0	45.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/4	UCLA vs Penn State	+24.5	48.5	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/11	UCLA at Michigan State	+7.0	51.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCLA vs Maryland	-3.5	52.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/25	UCLA at Indiana	+26.5	53.5	L 6 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	UCLA vs Nebraska	-1.5	45.5	L 21 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/15	UCLA at Ohio State	+33.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/22	UCLA vs Washington	+10.5	51.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/29	UCLA at USC	+21.0	59.0	L 10 - 29	U	Y

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)	31	52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)	20.5	39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3
UCLA	#99 (.14)	39% (112)	18.2	34% (131)	2.47 (132)	87	43% (56)	242	3.15 (123)	#68 (.16)	46% (110)	33.4	45% (83)	47% (120)	4.45 (123)	68.9	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	16	31	28.6	51.3%	4.69	0.8	20	385	176	209	5.3	54%	46%	52%	51%	10%	.32
UCLA Defense	12	33.4	34.7	45.9%	4.45	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	45%	47%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	16	20.5	30.2	37.9%	3.22	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	39%	37%	18%	.05
UCLA Offense	12	18.2	19.5	39%	3.15	1.4	18	329	87	242	3.1	41%	59%	34%	43%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	16	26:51	20.4	48%	70%	4.4	41.4	0.8	1.3	5.5	2.3	4	28.9
UCLA	12	31:07	18	43%	50%	8.2	68.9	1.4	1.1	5.3	1.8	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	16	54% (38)	52% (9)	33.2	176.2	5.3	31 (17)	.24 (20)	3.42 (10)	76% (51)	7% (8)	0.92 (90)
UCLA Defense	12	43% (2)	45% (83)	-	-	-	-	.05 (30)	2.92 (52)	78% (101)	10% (68)	0.72 (2)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	16	48% (43)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.37 (3)	75% (75)	12% (26)	0.92 (42)
UCLA Offense	12	41% (122)	34% (131)	28	86.9	3.1	4 (133)	-.05 (129)	2.47 (132)	70% (87)	10% (85)	0.94 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	16	46% (95)	51% (4)	16.7	24.3	208.8	8.6	12.5	27 (20)	9 (48)	.41 (11)	1.5 (107)	26% (3)	35% (31)	.46 (20)	3% (5)	2 (85)
UCLA Defense	12	57% (132)	47% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.26 (82)	1.4 (15)	30% (100)	33% (106)	.31 (70)	8% (8)	2 (53)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	16	52% (96)	37% (25)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.1 (16)	1.7 (91)	36% (14)	27% (25)	.2 (29)	6% (57)	2.1 (95)
UCLA Offense	12	59% (12)	43% (56)	21.6	33.2	242.2	7.3	11.2	17 (79)	11 (72)	.26 (62)	1.5 (95)	36% (126)	36% (21)	.42 (30)	7% (99)	1.9 (102)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 18.37 #13
Penn State's Offense Rating: 23.64 #17
Penn State's Defense Rating: 5.27 #24
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53% #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 6.4
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1 #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #17
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 18.37 UCLA: -0.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 18.1 UCLA: -8.7

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: -0.88 #57
UCLA's Offense Rating: 17.07 #46
UCLA's Defense Rating: 15.13 #80
2025 Talent Rating: 796.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #37
UCLA's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UCLA's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7 #98
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #105
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 35
UCLA 16

Projected Total Points: 51

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

UCLA's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	UCLA	42	Penn State	37	Penn State -24.5	UCLA	48.5	Over
2024	10/05	Penn State	27	UCLA	11	Penn State -30	UCLA	48.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCLA	1	2	1 Overs
Penn State	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#13) PSU at (#57) UCLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PSU	UCLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#13	#57
SP+SP+	#15	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#23	#119
OffenseOff	#29	#110
DefenseDef	#38	#120
Spec TeamsST	#13	#38
TalentTal	#4	#54
Blue ChipsBC%	#10	#37

Penn State Notes(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report

UCLA Notes(12/1) Hired Bob Chesney (JMU), a great hire for UCLA
(11/15) QB1 Nico out vs Ohio St (Concussion)
(10/15) No one left via portal after Foster firing, incredible
(10/12) Back 2 back wins, but Sparty is truly awful esp Def
(10/6) 1st time OC Jerry Neuheisel a revelation, great game
(10/4) Incredible effort, unreal W vs Penn St. Nico 5 TD's
(10/4) OG'd PSU by 100, held ball 40 mins, Run Def good
(9/30) Two score underdogs or more in every game forward
(9/30) OC Sunseri fired 4 games in, Jerry Neuheisel Int
(9/14) HC Foster fired, SA Tim Skipper interim HC
(9/13) Outscored 30-0 in 1st quarter in 1st 3 games
(9/13) NM mauled Bruins Def up front. Run Off sucks
UCLA Injury Report

Penn State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	UCLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#120
SuccessSuc	#4	#110
ExplosiveExp	#116	#10
PPAPPA	#11	#68
PowerPwr	#17	#80
SP+SP+	#17	#94
Pts POPPO	#9	#123
HavocHav	#3	#37

Penn State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#20	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#83
Run ExplRExp	#90	#2
PPAExp	#20	#30
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#53
TackleTak	-	#55

Penn State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#107	#15
PPAExp	#11	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#15	#136
F7 HavocF7	#8	#68
DB HavocDB	#5	#8

UCLA on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	PSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#38
SuccessSuc	#112	#21
ExplosiveExp	#43	#81
PPAPPA	#99	#9
PowerPwr	#46	#24
SP+SP+	#105	#22
Pts POPPO	#123	#18
HavocHav	#96	#38

UCLA Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#66	#67
Run SuccessRSuc	#131	#27
Run ExplRExp	#84	#42
PPAExp	#129	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#99	-
OL YdsOLY	#132	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#1
TackleTak	-	#36

UCLA Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	#56	#25
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#91
PPAExp	#62	#16
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#89	#31
F7 HavocF7	#85	#26
DB HavocDB	#99	#57

Program Comparison
UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Penn State 24.5 (48.5)
UCLA won vs Penn State this year (42-37)

Previous Matchups
UCLA beat Penn State last year (42-37)
Penn State beat UCLA in 2024 (27-11)

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Grunkemeyer	123	178	69%	1339	8	4	7.5
Drew Allar	103	159	65%	1100	8	3	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	210	1303	15	6.2	67
Nicholas Singleton	123	549	13	4.5	59
Drew Allar	36	172	1	4.8	27
Quinton Martin Jr.	20	103	0	5.2	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)	49	552	2	11.3	73
Devonte Ross (Tr)	36	501	5	13.9	75
Kyron Ware-Hudson	23	288	2	12.5	31
Luke Reynolds	26	257	0	9.9	22

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amare Campbell (Tr)	103	10	3	4	1
Zakee Wheatley	74	2	0	3	1
Dominic DeLuca	66	7	2	4	3
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dani Dennis-Sutton	42	12	8	8	3
Zane Durant	25	5	4	1	2
Amare Campbell (Tr)	103	10	3	4	1
Dominic DeLuca	66	7	2	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryus Dixson	24	2	1	0	6
Elliot Washington II	18	0	0	0	3
Dominic DeLuca	66	7	2	4	3

UCLA's OC Tino Sunseri (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nico Iamaleava (Tr)	208	323	64%	1928	13	7	6.0
Luke Duncan	21	34	62%	235	2	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nico Iamaleava (Tr)	112	505	4	4.5	52
Jalen Berger	81	364	2	4.5	24
Jaivian Thomas (Tr)	82	306	1	3.7	32
Anthony Woods (Tr)	63	294	0	4.7	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kwazi Gilmer	50	535	4	10.7	43
Mikey Matthews (Tr)	33	348	2	10.5	37
Titus Mokiao-Atimalala	25	322	3	12.9	34
Rico Flores	26	274	0	10.5	51

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JonJon Vaughns	107	6	1	0	1
Isaiah Chisom (Tr)	84	3	0	1	1
Key Lawrence (Tr)	70	4	0	1	1
Cole Martin (Tr)	65	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Woods	47	5	2	0	3
Anthony Jones (Tr)	20	3	2	4	1
JonJon Vaughns	107	6	1	0	1
Kechaun Bennett (Tr)	23	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Andre Jordan	19	0	10
Rodrick Pleasant (Tr)	36	2	7
Cole Martin (Tr)	65	4	3