Penn State at Iowa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa HawkeyesIowa logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Iowa -3.5 (41.5) (-155)  Open: -10.5 | 45.5
Iowa 25 - Penn State: 24  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (3 - 6) (2 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (25 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#91)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
PSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -6  (SP+ IOWA -2)

Projected Score: PSU: 21 - IOWA: 27 (48)
IOWA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 713 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Hawkeyes (6 - 3) (6 - 2 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 30 - 14 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-9
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-11

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+5
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.5
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#52 (.2)46% (32)30.748% (25)3.12 (34)13844% (56)1604.4 (33)#67 (.14)42% (78)22.344% (85)41% (65)3.74 (73)27.70.91.1
IOWA#72 (.17)45% (38)29.651% (8)3.48 (7)16537% (120)1184.29 (39)#23 (.05)38% (23)13.740% (47)36% (22)3.37 (39)20.30.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense930.72545.9%4.40.9172981381604.554%46%48%44%13%.2
IOWA Defense913.713.237.6%3.371.2 - - - - - 50%49%40%36%19%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense922.33542%3.741.1 - - - - - 56%43%44%41%15%.14
IOWA Offense929.629.745.1%4.290.7152831651184.859%41%51%37%12%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State925:0517.343%57%3.227.70.91.15.21.4233.5
Iowa927:4415.445%70%2.120.30.71.251.9434.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense954% (43)48% (25)311384.519 (26).21 (23)3.12 (34)78% (31)8% (32)0.99 (56)
IOWA Defense950% (67)40% (47) - - - - .02 (28)2.67 (58)68% (46)12% (26)0.86 (27)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense956% (124)44% (85) - - - - .15 (107)2.84 (84)76% (105)10% (57)0.93 (55)
IOWA Offense959% (12)51% (8)34164.74.820 (23).24 (17)3.48 (7)84% (3)9% (45)0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense946% (93)44% (56)16.125.2160.36.4109 (86)6 (60).2 (89)1.3 (130)28% (20)32% (54).33 (67)5% (45)1.9 (103)
IOWA Defense949% (68)36% (22) - - - - - - 9 (38).13 (28)1.4 (14)31% (76)22% (4).14 (16)7% (27)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense943% (12)41% (65) - - - - - - 5 (55).23 (68)1.4 (15)30% (100)26% (28).17 (27)4% (121)1.6 (4)
IOWA Offense941% (121)37% (120)13.320.9117.95.68.85 (128)5 (60).13 (112)1.3 (128)25% (5)24% (126).1 (127)3% (4)1.4 (136)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 14.64  #34
Penn State's Offense Rating: 16.50  #33
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.86  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #22
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #29
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 14.64   Iowa: 20.745

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 15.0   Iowa: 17.1




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 20.745  #21
Iowa's Offense Rating: 14.97  #40
Iowa's Defense Rating: -4.42  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.1  #17
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.0  #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 27
Penn State 21


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 33
Penn State 24

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Iowa 29
Penn State 21

Total Points: 50
Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 13.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.2

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Iowa25Penn State24Iowa -3.5Penn State41.5Over
202309/23Penn State31Iowa0Penn State -14Penn State38.5Under
202110/09Iowa23Penn State20Iowa -2.5Iowa41.0Over
202011/21Penn State21Iowa41Iowa -1.0Iowa45.5Over
201910/12Iowa12Penn State17Penn State -3.5Penn State43.5Under
201810/27Penn State30Iowa24Penn State -5.5Penn State52.0Over
201709/23Iowa19Penn State21Penn State -13Iowa53.0Under
201611/05Penn State41Iowa14Penn State -6.5Penn State52.0Over
201210/20Iowa14Penn State38
201110/08Penn State13Iowa3
201010/02Iowa24Penn State3
200909/26Penn State10Iowa21
200811/08Iowa24Penn State23
200710/06Penn State27Iowa7
200410/23Penn State4Iowa6
200310/25Iowa26Penn State14
200209/28Penn State35Iowa42
200109/29Iowa24Penn State18
200011/03Penn State23Iowa26
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa1135 Overs
Penn State853 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 85 - 34 - 11 - 2
Road Teams8 - 113 - 52 - 11 - 4

(#34) PSU at (#21) IOWA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUIOWA
Power RatePwr #34 #21
SP+SP+ #22 #17
Perf GradeGrade #34 #7
OffenseOff #60 #21
DefenseDef #30 #13
Spec TeamsST #3 #8
TalentTal #4 #41
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #33
Penn State Notes
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
(9/30) OL push is an issue, Allar/WR did little vs Ducks. Yikes
(9/15) Off #'s good but cupcakes so far, Pass Off expl?
(8/30) 3.8 ypc vs Nevada? Allar big w/ Hudson/Pena
(6/6) Def still solid, DL a top 10 unit via PFF
Penn State Injury Report
Iowa Notes
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
(9/1) Gronowski really bad (44 yds), hiding vs FCS?
(8/28) WR Vaner Zee out about a month (foot)
(6/6) OL 3/5 back. Have options, PFF top 10 OL
Iowa Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #60 #13
SuccessSuc #32 #23
ExplosiveExp #124 #8
PPAPPA #52 #23
PowerPwr #33 #13
SP+SP+ #29 #6
Pts POPPO #33 #39
HavocHav #33 #21
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #48 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #47
Run ExplRExp #56 #27
PPAExp #23 #28
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #58
Stuff RateStuff #9 #35
TackleTak -  #57
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #105 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #56 #22
Pass ExplPExl #130 #14
PPAExp #89 #28
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #12 #8
F7 HavocF7 #32 #26
DB HavocDB #45 #27
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatIOWA OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #21 #30
SuccessSuc #38 #78
ExplosiveExp #136 #10
PPAPPA #72 #67
PowerPwr #40 #36
SP+SP+ #48 #25
Pts POPPO #39 #73
HavocHav #11 #96
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #29 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #85
Run ExplRExp #111 #55
PPAExp #17 #107
Run BlockR Blk #1 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #84
Stuff RateStuff #11 #67
TackleTak -  #19
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatIOWA OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #68 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #120 #65
Pass ExplPExl #128 #15
PPAExp #112 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #5 #33
F7 HavocF7 #45 #57
DB HavocDB #4 #121
Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 69° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Iowa -3.5 (41.5)
Iowa won vs Penn State this year (25-24)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Iowa in 2023 (31-0)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer649766%562245.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen138736105.367
Nicholas Singleton9236393.959
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)106706.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)32331110.343
Devonte Ross (Tr)23281312.267
Kyron Ware-Hudson21245211.731
Luke Reynolds2221809.922

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)678230
Zakee Wheatley611011
Dominic DeLuca435122
Audavion Collins352002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zane Durant234311
Amare Campbell (Tr)678230
Zuriah Fisher154231
Dani Dennis-Sutton297272
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
King Mack (Tr)340013
Zion Tracy192002
Dominic DeLuca435122

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)11718364%1084545.9
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton10552225.022
Mark Gronowski (Tr)88338123.867
Xavier Williams4125536.243
Jaziun Patterson4122605.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sam Phillips (Tr)13216016.645
Jacob Gill17193011.438
Kaden Wetjen1713217.828
DJ Vonnahme1210718.940

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar567130
Koen Entringer534001
Xavier Nwankpa510010
Zach Lutmer493104
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Llewellyn209643
Ethan Hurkett256410
Aaron Graves306430
Karson Sharar567130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall350008
Deshaun Lee261005
Zach Lutmer493104