Penn State at Iowa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa HawkeyesIowa logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Iowa -3.5 (41.5) (-155)  Open: -10.5 | 45.5
Iowa 25 - Penn State: 24  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#74)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
PSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -3  (SP+ IOWA -2)

Projected Score: PSU: 22 - IOWA: 25 (48)
IOWA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 713 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Hawkeyes (9 - 4) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#50)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+2.547.5W 22 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+6.548.5L 21 - 26UY
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.543.0W 20 - 17UN
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5.538.5W 40 - 16OY
Wed 12/31 Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.047.5W 34 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#31 (.24)46% (26)3147% (26)3.15 (34)16445% (34)1684.32 (26)#50 (.12)41% (61)20.544% (94)38% (39)3.33 (40)34.60.81
IOWA#76 (.16)44% (47)29.349% (15)3.41 (7)16438% (107)1274.39 (25)#19 (.06)39% (35)16.141% (58)38% (32)3.27 (35)26.10.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.5%4.320.8183311641684.955%43%47%45%14%.24
IOWA Defense1316.113.738.9%3.271.1 - - - - - 50%48%41%38%17%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.241.2%3.331 - - - - - 51%48%44%38%16%.12
IOWA Offense1329.328.344.4%4.390.9162911641274.660%38%49%38%11%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1326:5718.142%63%3.834.60.815.72.1231.9
Iowa1328:581643%67%2.626.10.91.14.41.6533
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1355% (30)47% (26)33.4163.84.930 (26).22 (21)3.15 (34)76% (43)9% (49)1.01 (53)
IOWA Defense1350% (63)41% (58) - - - - .07 (51)2.87 (68)69% (51)10% (49)0.87 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1351% (85)44% (94) - - - - .11 (75)2.97 (85)69% (54)11% (35)0.93 (55)
IOWA Offense1360% (12)49% (15)35.9164.14.626 (23).2 (29)3.41 (7)83% (5)8% (32)0.87 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1343% (109)45% (34)15.623.4167.67.210.714 (86)7 (60).28 (52)1.4 (110)26% (14)32% (51).37 (42)5% (25)2 (72)
IOWA Defense1348% (67)38% (32) - - - - - - 11 (38).14 (23)1.3 (4)29% (112)23% (5).17 (19)7% (31)1.9 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1348% (61)38% (39) - - - - - - 6 (55).18 (42)1.5 (27)30% (98)27% (32).23 (49)5% (101)1.9 (34)
IOWA Offense1338% (126)38% (107)12.620.3126.86.310.110 (128)7 (60).19 (100)1.5 (92)26% (13)25% (120).13 (126)3% (4)1.8 (120)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 19.62  #18
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.85  #19
Penn State's Defense Rating: 0.23  #30
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 6.4
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #20
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.9  #21
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #31

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 19.62   Iowa: 20.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 15.8   Iowa: 17.5




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 20.64  #20
Iowa's Offense Rating: 14.86  #41
Iowa's Defense Rating: -3.92  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 4.6
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #48
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 25
Penn State 22


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 33
Penn State 24

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Iowa 27
Penn State 23

Total Points: 50
Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Iowa25Penn State24Iowa -3.5Penn State41.5Over
202309/23Penn State31Iowa0Penn State -14Penn State38.5Under
202110/09Iowa23Penn State20Iowa -2.5Iowa41.0Over
202011/21Penn State21Iowa41Iowa -1.0Iowa45.5Over
201910/12Iowa12Penn State17Penn State -3.5Penn State43.5Under
201810/27Penn State30Iowa24Penn State -5.5Penn State52.0Over
201709/23Iowa19Penn State21Penn State -13Iowa53.0Under
201611/05Penn State41Iowa14Penn State -6.5Penn State52.0Over
201210/20Iowa14Penn State38
201110/08Penn State13Iowa3
201010/02Iowa24Penn State3
200909/26Penn State10Iowa21
200811/08Iowa24Penn State23
200710/06Penn State27Iowa7
200410/23Penn State4Iowa6
200310/25Iowa26Penn State14
200209/28Penn State35Iowa42
200109/29Iowa24Penn State18
200011/03Penn State23Iowa26
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa1135 Overs
Penn State853 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 85 - 34 - 11 - 2
Road Teams8 - 113 - 52 - 11 - 4

(#18) PSU at (#20) IOWA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUIOWA
Power RatePwr #18 #20
SP+SP+ #20 #15
Perf GradeGrade #23 #9
OffenseOff #35 #8
DefenseDef #32 #18
Spec TeamsST #5 #8
TalentTal #4 #41
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #33
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
Iowa Notes
(11/28) Killed Neb to finish 8-4, 6-3 in B1G. Good season
(11/22) Stop L streak with comeback vs MSU. Found a way
(11/16) 2 hard L's to Ducks/USC. 6-4 feels crossroad-ish
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
Iowa Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #18
SuccessSuc #26 #35
ExplosiveExp #100 #3
PPAPPA #31 #19
PowerPwr #19 #20
SP+SP+ #21 #7
Pts POPPO #26 #35
HavocHav #38 #44
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #23 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #58
Run ExplRExp #53 #23
PPAExp #21 #51
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #68
Stuff RateStuff #31 #69
TackleTak -  #92
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #89 #24
Pass SuccessPSuc #34 #32
Pass ExplPExl #110 #4
PPAExp #52 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #11 #7
F7 HavocF7 #49 #49
DB HavocDB #25 #31
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatIOWA OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #8 #32
SuccessSuc #47 #61
ExplosiveExp #133 #17
PPAPPA #76 #50
PowerPwr #41 #30
SP+SP+ #48 #31
Pts POPPO #25 #40
HavocHav #6 #62
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #30 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #15 #94
Run ExplRExp #112 #55
PPAExp #29 #75
Run BlockR Blk #1 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #85
Stuff RateStuff #7 #80
TackleTak -  #53
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatIOWA OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #56 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #39
Pass ExplPExl #92 #27
PPAExp #100 #42
Pass Block/RushP Blk #4 #17
F7 HavocF7 #32 #35
DB HavocDB #4 #101
Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 69° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Iowa -3.5 (41.5)
Iowa won vs Penn State this year (25-24)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Iowa in 2023 (31-0)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Grunkemeyer12317869%1341847.5
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Quinton Martin Jr.2010105.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)49552211.373
Devonte Ross (Tr)36501513.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds26259010.022

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca667243
King Mack (Tr)581113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton4212883
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Dominic DeLuca667243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Elliot Washington II180003
Dominic DeLuca667243

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)15024063%1529866.4
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton15678345.034
Mark Gronowski (Tr)120491154.167
Jaziun Patterson5729905.217
Xavier Williams4426035.943
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Vonnahme22288213.143
Sam Phillips (Tr)16261016.345
Jacob Gill22260111.844
Reece Vander Zee11186116.929

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar7810251
Xavier Nwankpa691010
Koen Entringer694013
Zach Lutmer686106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Llewellyn239675
Ethan Hurkett339620
Aaron Graves367531
Karson Sharar7810251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall390008
Zach Lutmer686106
Deshaun Lee341006